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| The remainder of Obama’s legacy may depend largely on him going it alone | The remainder of Obama’s legacy may depend largely on him going it alone |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| The question facing President Obama as he delivers his sixth State of the Union address Tuesday is whether his final two years in the White House can come close to repeating the successes of his first two. He has neither the Democratic majority that ushered through major bills revamping the nation’s fiscal and health-care systems, nor the sky-high poll ratings he had shortly after taking office. | The question facing President Obama as he delivers his sixth State of the Union address Tuesday is whether his final two years in the White House can come close to repeating the successes of his first two. He has neither the Democratic majority that ushered through major bills revamping the nation’s fiscal and health-care systems, nor the sky-high poll ratings he had shortly after taking office. |
| But he finally does have a stronger economy that gives him an opportunity to outline a domestic vision that contrasts sharply with that of the GOP. At the same time, he is counting on being able to strike a handful of deals with congressional Republicans, who are now firmly in the majority. | But he finally does have a stronger economy that gives him an opportunity to outline a domestic vision that contrasts sharply with that of the GOP. At the same time, he is counting on being able to strike a handful of deals with congressional Republicans, who are now firmly in the majority. |
| The White House has concluded that success in the home stretch will rest on Obama’s ability to do a little bit of both. Given the historic antagonism between the president and his GOP adversaries — and negative Republican reaction to the policies Obama has announced in recent weeks — the administration is investing heavily in what he can do through unilateral action and alliances outside D.C. | |
| “He will write his own legacy based in large part on the extent to which he is willing to go his own way,” said William Galston, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. | “He will write his own legacy based in large part on the extent to which he is willing to go his own way,” said William Galston, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. |
| Obama’s policy successes have come in two brief periods. In his first two years, he forged landmark legislation with a Congress led by his Democratic Party. For the past year, he has courted confrontation with congressional Republicans, defying them with go-it-alone initiatives on climate change, immigration and foreign policy. | Obama’s policy successes have come in two brief periods. In his first two years, he forged landmark legislation with a Congress led by his Democratic Party. For the past year, he has courted confrontation with congressional Republicans, defying them with go-it-alone initiatives on climate change, immigration and foreign policy. |
| His address to Congress on Tuesday — which will be aimed more at the broader public than the lawmakers sitting before him — will reflect this strategy. Rather than striking a tone of compromise, he is proposing $320 billion over the next decade in new taxes targeting wealthy individuals and big financial institutions to fund community college tuition and paid leave for working parents — something that has prompted outcries from the Republican majority. | His address to Congress on Tuesday — which will be aimed more at the broader public than the lawmakers sitting before him — will reflect this strategy. Rather than striking a tone of compromise, he is proposing $320 billion over the next decade in new taxes targeting wealthy individuals and big financial institutions to fund community college tuition and paid leave for working parents — something that has prompted outcries from the Republican majority. |
| “We will not be limited by what will pass this Congress, because that would be a very boring two years,” White House senior adviser Dan Pfeiffer said in an interview. “We won’t be limited in what we do, and we won’t be limited in what we call for. We’ll always have a legislative strategy for what we want to try to accomplish, but we’ll also have a bully-pulpit strategy where we try to convince states and cities and companies to try to adopt those policies.” | “We will not be limited by what will pass this Congress, because that would be a very boring two years,” White House senior adviser Dan Pfeiffer said in an interview. “We won’t be limited in what we do, and we won’t be limited in what we call for. We’ll always have a legislative strategy for what we want to try to accomplish, but we’ll also have a bully-pulpit strategy where we try to convince states and cities and companies to try to adopt those policies.” |
| But the president is not writing off the GOP-controlled House and Senate, aides say. He will need their support if he wants to expand significantly on a domestic policy record that already includes the economic recovery, the Affordable Care Act, the first carbon limits on power plants, broad regulatory changes for financial institutions and the deferral of possible deportation for millions of illegal immigrants. | But the president is not writing off the GOP-controlled House and Senate, aides say. He will need their support if he wants to expand significantly on a domestic policy record that already includes the economic recovery, the Affordable Care Act, the first carbon limits on power plants, broad regulatory changes for financial institutions and the deferral of possible deportation for millions of illegal immigrants. |
| “For the policy of trade, he’s going to have a different coalition than with the policy of immigration or than with surface transportation,” said James Thurber, a professor who directs American University’s Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies. | “For the policy of trade, he’s going to have a different coalition than with the policy of immigration or than with surface transportation,” said James Thurber, a professor who directs American University’s Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies. |
| But it remains unclear how easy it will be to muster any of those alliances, as they will depend in part on Republican leaders’ willingness to edge aside conservative members of their party at a time when the 2016 presidential contest is well underway. | But it remains unclear how easy it will be to muster any of those alliances, as they will depend in part on Republican leaders’ willingness to edge aside conservative members of their party at a time when the 2016 presidential contest is well underway. |
| Another factor beyond the White House’s control is the much-anticipated Supreme Court ruling later this year that could undercut the federal subsidies that help millions of Americans buy plans under the Affordable Care Act. | Another factor beyond the White House’s control is the much-anticipated Supreme Court ruling later this year that could undercut the federal subsidies that help millions of Americans buy plans under the Affordable Care Act. |
| “The legacy of the president, and the health-care legacy of the president, depends on those nine people in the Supreme Court,” said Jonathan Oberlander, a health policy professor at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. | “The legacy of the president, and the health-care legacy of the president, depends on those nine people in the Supreme Court,” said Jonathan Oberlander, a health policy professor at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. |
| For conservative Republicans, the next two years represent a test of how hard they want to try to dismantle the kind of government Obama has put in place over the past six years. | For conservative Republicans, the next two years represent a test of how hard they want to try to dismantle the kind of government Obama has put in place over the past six years. |
| “The challenge is there is no way to stop the president without a confrontation,” said Heritage Foundation President Jim DeMint, adding that GOP lawmakers are worried that forcing a government shutdown would backfire. “Republicans are just very reticent to do that. But the president’s going to keep bullying and overreaching until there’s a pushback.” | “The challenge is there is no way to stop the president without a confrontation,” said Heritage Foundation President Jim DeMint, adding that GOP lawmakers are worried that forcing a government shutdown would backfire. “Republicans are just very reticent to do that. But the president’s going to keep bullying and overreaching until there’s a pushback.” |
| Obama and his aides, by contrast, seem eager for a conflict that will put their differences with the GOP on full display. The administration is determined to finalize its proposed rule limiting greenhouse gas emissions on existing power plants, set aside more public land for conservation and strike a global climate deal when the United Nations convenes negotiations in Paris at the end of the year. | Obama and his aides, by contrast, seem eager for a conflict that will put their differences with the GOP on full display. The administration is determined to finalize its proposed rule limiting greenhouse gas emissions on existing power plants, set aside more public land for conservation and strike a global climate deal when the United Nations convenes negotiations in Paris at the end of the year. |
| Jim Messina, who managed the president’s reelection campaign and still serves as one of his closest outside advisers, said Obama “is laser focused on the talks in Paris” and has pressed world leaders repeatedly in an effort to lay the groundwork for a meaningful international climate agreement. | Jim Messina, who managed the president’s reelection campaign and still serves as one of his closest outside advisers, said Obama “is laser focused on the talks in Paris” and has pressed world leaders repeatedly in an effort to lay the groundwork for a meaningful international climate agreement. |
| Domestically, the president is poised to use his power under the Antiquities Act to declare national monuments in several areas, including Chicago’s Pullman Park, Colorado’s Browns Canyon, California’s Lake Berryessa and Hawaii’s Honouliuli Internment Camp. He also is ready to begin an initiative, in concert with next year’s National Park Service centennial, that aims to get every fourth-grader in the country into a national park. | Domestically, the president is poised to use his power under the Antiquities Act to declare national monuments in several areas, including Chicago’s Pullman Park, Colorado’s Browns Canyon, California’s Lake Berryessa and Hawaii’s Honouliuli Internment Camp. He also is ready to begin an initiative, in concert with next year’s National Park Service centennial, that aims to get every fourth-grader in the country into a national park. |
| The president and his top aides are comfortable making the environment a central part of their agenda in a way that they were not before. First lady Michelle Obama is hosting Nicole Hernandez Hammer — a climate scientist from south Florida who has documented sea-level rise — in her box for the State of the Union speech. | The president and his top aides are comfortable making the environment a central part of their agenda in a way that they were not before. First lady Michelle Obama is hosting Nicole Hernandez Hammer — a climate scientist from south Florida who has documented sea-level rise — in her box for the State of the Union speech. |
| Foreign policy will not be a central theme in this year’s address, in part because the president is less eager to talk about places such as Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria, where Islamist militants continue to battle the United States and its allies. But Obama has intensified his efforts on issues that helped propel his candidacy, such as accelerating the transfer of prisoners from the U.S. military prison at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, in recent months. | Foreign policy will not be a central theme in this year’s address, in part because the president is less eager to talk about places such as Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria, where Islamist militants continue to battle the United States and its allies. But Obama has intensified his efforts on issues that helped propel his candidacy, such as accelerating the transfer of prisoners from the U.S. military prison at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, in recent months. |
| Peter Feaver, a political science professor at Duke University who served under President George W. Bush, cautioned that any president’s final two years in office are hard to predict. | Peter Feaver, a political science professor at Duke University who served under President George W. Bush, cautioned that any president’s final two years in office are hard to predict. |
| “A lot of things happen in the fourth quarter,” Feaver said. “For good, and for bad.” | “A lot of things happen in the fourth quarter,” Feaver said. “For good, and for bad.” |