The Guardian view of the Greek election: respect the outcome

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jan/23/guardian-view-greek-election-respect-outcome

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It is inevitably tempting to see Sunday’s general election in Greece as a make-or-break moment, which could determine the fate of post-crash economic austerity across Europe as a whole. Greeks could decide on Sunday to honour their commitments to creditors, pursue structural reforms and make further cuts in public spending. Or they may reject the conditions that the European Union, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund have attached to the bailout programme, and demand debt relief and other changes to ease the impact of austerity. The outcome is being watched by the peoples and the governments of Europe, and by financial markets too.

Some of the hopes and fears, however, may be overblown. The eurozone has stronger defence mechanisms than was the case when the financial crisis broke out, including the quantitative easing programme announced by the ECB this week. Most Greeks also want to remain within the EU and the eurozone. Alexis Tsipras, the leader of the leftwing Syriza movement, which is leading in the polls, has accordingly been trying to calm some of the worries in Brussels and, in particular, Berlin, about his party’s likely intentions. If Mr Tsipras needs to form a coalition after Sunday, further compromises may be necessary.

Mr Tsipras avoids talk of a Greek exit from the eurozone. Most of his emphasis is on the need for radical easing of Greece’s debt mountain, which has reached 175% of GDP. He may start by pressing for a debt write-off. That would be hard for the EU and the IMF to accept, but they are nevertheless wary of an outright confrontation. Angela Merkel has called on Greece to “show responsibility”. In fact both sides may have a greater interest in accommodation than a bust-up.

Greece’s financial predicament is not the only uncertainty. If Syriza wins Sunday’s vote, the political impact will not be confined to Greece. There would be a ripple effect across other parts of the continent, where anti-austerity and anti-establishment parties are also growing. The leader of Spain’s leftwing Podemos movement, Pablo Iglesias, joined Mr Tsipras in a rally this week in Athens, calling for “a wind of change in Europe”. The strength of that wind is hard to predict, not just in Greece, but it cannot and should not be ignored.

In an uncertain moment like this, the worst response would be to dismiss the legitimacy of Greece’s verdict. The message of the voters needs to be taken seriously, whatever the government they elect. The European political class has form here. Europe should respect the outcome, not ignore it. The answer is to change the policy, not the voters.

The temptation to overdramatise what is unquestionably a very dramatic moment should be held in check. Greek voters are gearing up to protest at a time when the EU is somewhat less obsessed with the rigid mantra of austerity than it was. Yet public exasperation after years of belt-tightening and record levels of unemployment is such that patience has been running out anyway. Whatever happens on Sunday , the rise of Syriza poses a challenge to European policy orthodoxy that is not about to disappear.