Tsipras declares end to 'vicious cycle of austerity' after Syriza wins Greek election – as it happened
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Version 0 of 1. 10.52pm GMT22:52 Summary Here’s summary of a momentous election result for the future of Greece and Europe: 10.49pm GMT22:49 Spain’s anti-austerity party has hailed Syriza win with a dig at Germany. Spain's Podemos: "Greeks finally have a government, not a Merkel envoy" #Greece #ekloges2015 pic.twitter.com/hD3rzCsgoM 10.20pm GMT22:20 Here’s a preview of the Guardian’s front page on Syriza’s win. Guardian front page, Monday 26 January 2015: Syriza’s historic win puts Greece on collision course with Europe pic.twitter.com/O04taIt0jq 10.19pm GMT22:19 At least one European finance minister has conceded that there could be scope for negotiation with Syriza, AP reports. Belgium’s finance minister sees some room to discuss the “modalities” of the Greek debt programme with the other eurozone nations after Syriza’s election victory. Johan Van Overtveldt said on the eve of a eurozone finance ministers’ meeting that “we can talk modalities, we can talk debt restructuring, but the cornerstone that Greece must respect the rules of monetary union that must stay as it is.” He told VRT network that even if some things could be changed to accommodate the demands of Syriza, “it is impossible to fundamentally change things.” 10.14pm GMT22:14 More celebration from those on the left in Britain. Yes! SYRIZA declare the "vicious cycle of austerity is over" #anotherworldispossible Fantastic Syriza win: austerity does not work for Greece, for Tory/Lib Dem UK, nor for EU; we all need investment in growth not savage cuts 10.11pm GMT22:11 AP has this account of the Tsipras victory speech: A triumphant Alexis Tsipras told Greeks that his radical left Syriza party’s win in meant an end to austerity and humiliation and that the country’s regular and often fraught debt inspections were a thing of the past. “The sovereign Greek people today have given a clear, strong, indisputable mandate. Greece has turned a page. Greece is leaving behind the destructive austerity, fear and authoritarianism. It is leaving behind five years of humiliation and pain,” Tsipras said to a crowd of rapturous flag-waving party supporters. The 40-year-old Tsipras campaigned on promises of renegotiating the terms for Greece’s €240 billion-euro bailout, which has kept the debt-ridden country afloat since mid-2010. To qualify for the cash, Greece has had to impose deep and bitterly-resented public spending, salary and pension cuts and repeated tax hikes. Its progress in reforms is reviewed by debt inspectors from the International Monetary Fund, European Commission and European Central Bank, collectively known as the “troika,” before each installment of bailout funds can be disbursed. “The verdict of the Greek people ends, beyond any doubt, the vicious circle of austerity in our country,” Tsipras said. “The verdict of the Greek people, your verdict, annuls today in an indisputable fashion the bailout agreements of austerity and disaster. The verdict of the Greek people renders the troika a thing of the past for our common European framework.” 9.59pm GMT21:59 With Syriza falling just short of an outright majority, To Potami, the centre-left party could be the kingmakers in the new parliament. It is projected to secure 16 seats. Its leader Stavros Theodorakis has not ruled out a deal with Syriza. “It’s too early for such details,” he reported to have said. Asked if he'll collaborate with #Tsipras- "It's too early for such details" #Theodorakis #Greece #ekloges2015 9.48pm GMT21:48 Caroline Lucas, the Green party’s only MP in Britain, draws encouragement from Syriza’s win. “Hope has won” - inspired by huge vote for #Syriza - now EU must listen to people & economists & respond with debt forgivenesss & support 9.42pm GMT21:42 Syriza’s projected share of the parliamentary seats has edged up to 149, according to the latest projection from the interior ministry after 62% of the results. 9.39pm GMT21:39 Here’s audio of Tsipras’s defiant speech with a translation from Sky News. Greece is leaving behind the austerity that led to destruction ... The verdict of the Greek people indisputably cancels all the programmes of austerity. The verdict of the Greek people makes the troika history in our common European framework. Updated at 9.39pm GMT 9.30pm GMT21:30 Punching the air, Tsipras told the crowd: “Today the Greek people has written history, Hope has written history ... Greece is turning a page. Greece is leaving the austerity of catastrophe and fear … there are no losers and winners. Those who have been defeated are the elite and oligarchs … we are regaining our dignity, our sovereignty again.” 9.28pm GMT21:28 Tsipras adds: “Today was a defeat for the Greece of the elites and the oligarchs. The Greece that works and hopes won.” He promises a way of the “vicious cycle” of debt. “The new Greek government will prove all the Cassandras of the world wrong,” he says. He promises to restore popular sovereignty and a clash with corruption. “We regain hope, optimism and dignity,” Tsipras says. 9.23pm GMT21:23 Tsipras says has Greece has left behind despair and austerity. “Today we have celebration, tomorrow we start to work hard,” he says. He says the verdict of the Greek people clearly rejects austerity. He says Syriza has a mandate for national reconstruction. “The memorandums of austerity and destruction...the Troika is in the past,” he adds. Updated at 9.23pm GMT 9.20pm GMT21:20 Syriza leader Alexis Tsipras is about to give a victory speech at Athens University. 9.14pm GMT21:14 Former London mayor Ken Livingstone is inspired by Syriza’s win. The massive vote for Syriza in Greece is genuinely inspiring - and necessary - and requires our real solidarity and support. 9.04pm GMT21:04 Syriza has painted Greece’s political map red. The geography of the vote: Syriza in red, New Democracy in blue pic.twitter.com/cP424UEoAc 9.02pm GMT21:02 Germany and Syriza are about to enter a high stakes poker game, writes Louise Osborne in Berlin. Julian Rappold, a political analyst at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP), says the German government would not have wished for such a strong result for Syriza and now faces possible renegotiation while also having to appease the German public. “A haircut is non-negotiable from the German side, first and foremost because of the strong public opinion against the haircut, so I don’t think Germany is likely to give that concession,” he said. “If the result of the negotiations is presented in the German public as something which is broadly in line with German interests, I think it won’t be a problem, but if the concessions are considered to be high, it will be detrimental to the conservatives.” Rappold added that both sides – Berlin and Syriza – would have to work quickly to establish communication channels. “A poker game is starting where both sides will try to figure out where the common ground is and which demands each can hope for.” 8.59pm GMT20:59 With more than half the results in, Syriza is still on course to win 148 seats, just short of a majority. 8.54pm GMT20:54 Here’s audio of Samaras conceding defeat, with a translation from Sky News. Helena Smith picks out these snippets from Samaras’s speech. “I assumed charge of a country that was on the brink of collapse … and we restored its international credibility.” “Mistakes were made and injustices occurred,” he said referring to the wave of budget cuts and tax rises that were ordered under his tenure. “But I hand over a country in better shape and my conscience is clear. I hope that my forecasts [of economic catastrophe] will not be materialised.” Updated at 8.56pm GMT 8.51pm GMT20:51 Samaras says Greek people have spoken and the country respects their decision. He says his government had to take difficult decisions and made some mistakes, but he insisted it set Greece on a course out of the crisis. He said his conscience was clear. “The elections result is not pleasant for us,” he said. But he pointed out that his party only lost two percentage points on the last election. 8.47pm GMT20:47 Outgoing PM Samaras is about to give press conference at a gloomy New Democracy party headquarters. 8.34pm GMT20:34 PM Samaras concedes defeat Prime minister Antonis Samaras has conceded defeat. The New Democracy leader called Syriza leader Alexis Tsipras to congratulate him. RT @EfiEfthimiou: #Greece Samaras called Tsipras to congratulate him TR @capitalgr: Συγχαρητήρια Α. Σαμαρά σε Α. Τσίπρα Greek PM Samaras has called #Syriza leader Tsipras to congratulate him on winning election (Reuters) #ekloges2015 pic.twitter.com/I3NTBqKTDF Updated at 8.39pm GMT 8.29pm GMT20:29 Pasok congratulates Syriza Pasok, the Socialist party that had been junior partner in the coalition with New Democracy , has congratulated Syriza. PASOK chief Evangelos Venizelos congratulates SYRIZA on election victory #Greece #ekloges2015 Pasok, which has held the reins of power on and off since the 1950s, is on course to get a measly 13 seats in the new parliament. Updated at 8.39pm GMT 8.23pm GMT20:23 Not everyone in Germany is carping, writes Louis Osborne in Berlin. Co-chairman of Germany’s Left Party Bernd Riexinger has congratulated Syriza on the results of the election saying it is clear it is a time for change, also in Germany. “In Germany we should also let it inspire us. We need in Germany not less, but more left-wing politics,” he said. Meanwhile, co-chairman of the Greens parliamentary group, Anton Hofreiter told the Rheinischen Post the party was in favour of a conditional haircut in return for social and economic reforms in Greece. “Together with the new Greek government, the EU and the German government should seek ways to give the people in Greece perspective again,” he said. 8.22pm GMT20:22 With 40% of the results in Syriza is now set to win 148 seats, according to the latest projection from the Ministry of Interior. 8.13pm GMT20:13 The Clash’s London’s Calling is being played at the Syriza victory party in Athens. The ice age is coming, the sun’s zooming inMeltdown expected, the wheat is growing thinEngines stop running, but I have no fear‘Cause London is drowning, and I live by the river 8.03pm GMT20:03 A GuardianWitness user in Greece has spoken of their elation and concerns after voting for Syriza. Elections in Greece I voted for SYRIZA, the left-wing party that seems to be winning the elections in Greece. I am elated and worried at the same time. I am elated because the progressive political domain I traditionally belong in seems to be achieving a historical victory. On the other hand, I am worried because, despite Alexis Tsipras' declared intentions to fight against austerity, the conservative political forces in Europe seem irremovably positioned against that prospect. What I can say with certainty, if you allow me to interpret the outcome of the elections in Greece, is that the Greek people definitely voted against the effort the memorandum-friendly elements -both domestic (current governing party and current P.M., Mr. Samaras) and foreign- made to intimidate them and 'manipulate' their voting by exercising terror on them, focusing on words like 'bankrupcy', 'destruction', 'horror' etc. If nothing else, the Greek people proved that they won't be intimitated and for that I am proud -no matter what happens henceforth. Sent via Guardian Witness By wellfightintheshade 25 January 2015, 19:22 Updated at 8.07pm GMT 7.56pm GMT19:56 With almost a third of the results in, Syriza is now course for 147 seats – four short of a majority. #Greece 31.88% of total:Syriza 35.55(147), ND 28.73(79), GolDawn 6.38(17), Potami 5.71(16), KKE 5.34(15), Pasok 4.96(13), IndGr 4.68(13) Coalition won’t be easy according to Nick Malkoutzis, deputy editor of Greek daily Kathimerini. Only possible allies for SYRIZA seem to be Potami & Independent Greeks. Working with either not a simple proposition #Greece #ekloges2015 Even with a slim majority, SYRIZA will need allies, whether in form of a coalition or through support in Parliament #Greece #ekloges2015 Updated at 8.07pm GMT 7.38pm GMT19:38 Syriza on course for half the seats in parliament Greece’s interior ministry predicts that Syriza will be the clear victor but fall just short of an outright majority of seats with 150 out of the 300 on offer. @FionaMullenCY @oditorium @polemitis official projection from #Greece's interior ministry (seats distribution) pic.twitter.com/xzqrR4rVH8 Updated at 8.06pm GMT 7.28pm GMT19:28 There’s been more grumbling from Germany, according to Louise Osborne in Berlin. The head of Germany’s eurosceptic party Alternative für Deutschland, Bernd Lucke, has called for a haircut for Greece, although he said it must be accompanied with an exit from the euro, according to reports from the Berlin newspaper the Tagesspiegel. “Syriza doesn’t question the euro, but demands further debt relief and more loans. That doesn’t fit together,” he said. The chairman of the CDU/CSU group in the European parliament, Herbert Reul, called the idea of another haircut unthinkable. “Greece must continue with the course of reforms if it doesn’t want to risk a departure from the monetary union,” he said. Updated at 7.37pm GMT 7.25pm GMT19:25 Whether Syriza has done enough to secure a majority of seats is still in doubt, but that hasn’t stopped its supporters celebrating. 7.19pm GMT19:19 With a fifth of the results in, Syriza’s lead is narrowing, and so far short of the 37% it needs for an all-out majority of seats. Official results @ 20% of votes SYRIZA 35.2 ND 29.14 G Dawn 6.3 Potami 5.65 KKE 5.3 PASOK 5.2 Ind Greeks 4.6 Kinima 2.5 #Greece #ekloges2015 Updated at 7.33pm GMT 7.13pm GMT19:13 Former prime minister George Papandreou has urged Syriza to seek national consensus even if it emerges with an all out majority. “No party, even with a majority, can handle [the] current situation alone,” he is quoted as saying at a press conference. Papandreou: No party, even with majority, can handle current situation alone" #greece #ekloges2015 He predicted that his own new Movement of Democratic Socialists (Kinima) would secure enough votes to be represented in the new parliament. MT @VeriasA: "We respect the decision of the people...We believe we'll be in the new Parliament" -#Papandreou #ekloges #Greece Updated at 7.32pm GMT 7.04pm GMT19:04 Bundesbank president Jens Weidmann has called on Greece to stick to its agreements. He said he hoped the new government would not make promises the country could not afford, Reuters reports, citing an interview with the broadcaster ARD. “I believe it’s also in the interest of the Greek government to do what is necessary to tackle the structural problems there,” Weidmann said. He singled out administration, public finances and the economy as being particularly in need of reform. “I hope the new government won’t call into question what is expected and what has already been achieved,” he said. Updated at 7.14pm GMT 6.54pm GMT18:54 Syriza predicted to fall just short of majority With 14% of ballots counted, Syriza is now predicted to fall one seat short of an all-out majority. actual results with 14% ballots counted: syriza 34.9, ND 25.9, xa 6.2, potami 5.6 potami, pasok 5.5, kke 5.3 #Greece | MetronAnalysis' acclaimed pollster Fanaras forecasts 150 seats for Syriza, one short of outright majority. #ekloges2015 Projection of Parliament seats based on true results MT @publicissue: #ekloges2015 Πρόβλεψη εδρών – Ώρα 20:45 pic.twitter.com/irb6g5heXp #Greece Updated at 7.13pm GMT 6.47pm GMT18:47 Germany has insisted that Greece needs to stick with the austerity programme, whatever the result, writes Louise Osborne in Berlin. Philipp Mißfelder, foreign policy spokesman for the ruling CDU/CSU parliamentary group, says there is a worry in Germany about a shift to populist movements in Europe that are “very bad for Europe and for the euro”. “This kind of protest is not a surprise, people are unhappy about the austerity measures, not only in Greece but also in countries like Italy. But I think Syriza shouldn’t expect Germany to renegotiate with the programmes. They have to stick with what the former government has promised,” he said. However, he said that if Greek politicians did want to negotiate, they would have to do so with the troika. “We are not in a position to negotiate,” he said, adding that Germany did not want to risk a “Grexit” and would try to avoid it. While a lot of people in Germany are worried about the current development, he added: “Germans trust the government and they trust Angela Merkel and believe she has done the right thing … It was always crystal clear that without political reforms, it would always be complicated and there is a lot of homework to do for all of Europe, but the euro is one of the greatest achievements we’ve had in Germany.” Updated at 7.13pm GMT 6.41pm GMT18:41 The second wave of exit polls now suggests that Syriza could fall short of an all-out majority of seats. Looks like #Syriza's absolute majority in Parliament will be a thriller to end early in the morning #ekloges2015 #greeceElections But the real results are beginning to come in, confirming a big win for Syriza. #Greece Athens 2st district results (2.3%): Syriza 37.7, ND 24.8, Potami 7.5, KKE 7.4, GDawn 5.6, ANEL 4.9, PASOK 3.5, KDS 2.1 #ekloges2015 Updated at 7.11pm GMT 6.34pm GMT18:34 Syriza's lead narrows to 10% Syriza lead over New Democracy may not be quite as large as first predicted, according to an update exit poll. It puts Syriza 10 points ahead of New Democracy. Updated Main Exit Poll (1 of 2) SYRIZA 36 – 38 ND 26 - 28 Golden Dawn 6 - 7 To Potami 6 - 7 #Greece #ekloges2015 With 100% of data processed: MRB exit poll for Star TV, give Syriza 10-point win, seat projection 148-154 #Greece pic.twitter.com/cEMDISWi9E Updated at 7.11pm GMT 6.27pm GMT18:27 Syriza supporters have started dancing. Foreign reporters filming an old couple dancing at #syriza tent. Spirit starts getting festive #ekloges2015 pic.twitter.com/ZONHk4zBzF 6.26pm GMT18:26 But other European politicians have passed on congratulations to Syriza. One of the first was the Italian minister Sandro Gozi. Congratulations to @AlexisTsipras ready to work with new greek gvt for a more democratic and political Union @DipPoliticheUE @pdnetwork 6.20pm GMT18:20 The sniping from Europe’s elite has already begun. Sweden’s former prime minister Carl Bildt claims that taxpayers in other European countries will have to foot the bill for Syriza’s victory. Syriza in Greece has won the election by promising that taxpayers in other Euro counties will pay even more to them. Rather daring. 6.14pm GMT18:14 If the result is confirmed, Syriza would become the first anti-austerity party in government in Europe, AFP points out. A Syriza victory is likely to send shockwaves through the austerity-hit EU and spark fears that Greece could leave the euro. Syriza wants to renegotiate the terms of Greece’s €240bn bailout with the EU and the International Monetary Fund which the party says is stifling any chance Greece has of recovering from a six-year recession. “This appears to be a historic victory, a message that does not only concern the Greek people, it resounds all over Europe and brings relief,” Syriza party spokesman Panos Skourletis told Mega TV. The first official results of the third election in Greece in five years are expected at 7.30pm GMT. Thousands of Syriza supporters gathered around the party’s main campaign platform in a central Athens square to hail their leader. Antonis Balousis, a 54-year-old butcher, said: “This is a very important victory for Greece and Europe. “We are going to prove that a different kind of politics is possible in Europe.” Neo-Nazi party Golden Dawn and pro-European party To Potami are in a neck-and-neck race for third place with between 6.4% and 8% apiece, the exit polls showed. Projections showed that Syriza may win an absolute majority of up to 158 seats in the 300-seat parliament, meaning it could rule without a coalition partner. Updated at 6.20pm GMT 6.06pm GMT18:06 Golden Dawn in third The exit polls suggest that the far-right neo-Nazi party Golden Dawn could come in third place despite nine of its 16 MPs being held in jail on charges of extortion and weapons possession. #Greece Neo-Nazi Golden Dawn and centrist party To Potami fighting it out for position of third place, according to Skai TV. Updated at 6.18pm GMT 5.57pm GMT17:57 Minister congratulates Syriza Just as Syriza has all but declared victory, a government minister has virtually conceded defeat. AP’s Derek Gatopoulos quotes health minister Makis Voridis as saying: “What I see from exit polls is Syriza has won, and we congratulate them.” Voridis was the founder of the now defunct far-right Hellenic Front. One step from conceding: Health Minister Makis Voridis: ""What I see from exit polls is Syriza has won, and we congratulate them" #Greece Updated at 6.06pm GMT 5.43pm GMT17:43 Syriza: 'hope has won' Syriza gets close to declaring victory by tweeting that “hope has won” following the release of those stunning exit polls. Η ελπίδα νίκησε! #syriza #ekloges2015 pic.twitter.com/7mFdzHyTON Updated at 5.44pm GMT 5.39pm GMT17:39 A third exit poll by Kapa appears to confirm that Syriza is heading for a big win. (1 of 2) Here's how the Kapa #ExitPoll translates to seats in parliament #Greece #ekloges Syriza 148-154 ND 70-78 G.Dawn 16-20 Potami 16-19 (2 of 2) KKE 15-17 Pasok 12-14 Ind.Grks 10-12 GPap 0-8 #Greece #ekloges #ExitPoll -Kapa Research 5.37pm GMT17:37 Another exit polls suggest Syriza could have secured more than 40% of the vote. Pulse Exit Poll for Action24 (1 of 2) SYRIZA 34.5 – 40.5 ND 24.5 - 30.5 To Potami 5 - 8 Golden Dawn 4.5 - 7.5 #Greece #ekloges2015 Pulse Exit Poll for Action24 (2 of 2) PASOK 4 - 7 KKE 3.5 - 6.5 Independent Greeks 2.5 - 5.5 Kinima 1.5 - 4.5 #Greece #ekloges2015 5.28pm GMT17:28 Exit polls suggest that Syriza is likely to get between 146-155 in the 300-seat parliament, Helena Smith reports from Athens. Giorgos Kyrtos, veteran political commentator – and now Euro MP for the conservative New Democracy party – is calling it a “historic moment” for the radical leftists. There were scenes of jubilation at Syriza’s main electoral office in central Athens. #ekloges2015 #Syriza exit poll results are announced pic.twitter.com/w4b8PKnWAW Updated at 6.05pm GMT 5.23pm GMT17:23 The Skai TV exit poll predicts that Syriza could secure 155 seats, according to the Guardian’s Helena Smith. This would amount to a massive rejection of austerity and mean Syriza could govern on its own, avoiding a potentially tricky coalition with one of the other parties. #Greece Syriza on course to win absolute majority with as many as 155 seats, according to SKAI TV. #Greece "this is a sweeping victory, we believe we'll have a clear mandate to form a government," Syriza MP tells Skai TV Skai TV exit poll #Greece #ekloges2015 #exitpoll Syriza 36-39 ND 24-27 Potami 6,5-8,5 GDawn 6-8 KKE 5-7 Pasok 4-6 Ind.Grks 2,5-4,5 GPap 2-3 Updated at 6.04pm GMT 5.18pm GMT17:18 More exit polls suggest something of a Syriza landslide. Kapa Research Exit Poll for @tovimagr (1 of 2) SYRIZA 33.5 – 37.5 ND 25 - 28 Golden Dawn 5.5 - 7.5 To Potami 5 - 7 #Greece #ekloges2015 Skai exit poll. #Greece #ekloges2015 pic.twitter.com/xmuCTs8gu3 The Guardian’s Owen Jones reports on Syriza’s joy. Jubilation erupts in Syriza tent as landslide result predicted by exit poll http://t.co/BqlK06vrba 5.12pm GMT17:12 The exit polls suggest Syriza could win as many as 158 seats, enough for an outright majority. But they could also fall just short of 150 seats in the 300-seat parliament. Either way, the poll points to a big win for Syriza, but this is still just a projection at this stage. Erdrutschsieg für #Syriza #GreekElections pic.twitter.com/ixfZT8iLdy Updated at 6.03pm GMT 5.06pm GMT17:06 The exit polls suggest Syriza could secure an outright majority. First exit polls from #GreekElections . #ekloges2015. Syriza 39% pic.twitter.com/P08VGyLaH1 Updated at 5.17pm GMT 5.03pm GMT17:03 Exit poll gives Syriza big lead The first exit polls suggest a big win for Syriza. One gave the party a lead of more than 12%. EXIT POLL SYRIZA 35,5-39,5 ND 23-27 Potami 6,4-8 Golden Dawn 6,4-8 KKE 4,7-5,7 PASOK 4,2-5,2 Ind.Greeks 3.5-4.5 Kinima 2,2-3,2 #ekloges2015 Combined exit polls: SYRIZA 35.5-39%; ND 23-27; Potami 6.4-8; GD 6.4-8; KKE 4.7-5.7; PASOK 4.2-5.2; Ind Grks 3.5-4.5 #ekloges2015 Updated at 5.04pm GMT 5.00pm GMT17:00 Polls close That’s it, voting over. Now for the exit polls. Updated at 5.17pm GMT 5.00pm GMT17:00 Syriza is reported to be lining up Costas Karamanlis – a critic of austerity and a former Conservative prime minister as Greece’s new president. Updated at 5.17pm GMT 4.53pm GMT16:53 Beware Greeks bearing exit polls. Wait for the real results. 4.45pm GMT16:45 Beware the exit polls, not just the leaked ones, warns the BBC’s Yannis Koutsomitis. #Greece | 20 mins to poll close and official exit polls release. Note: Exit polls are not results. Have failed miserably in previous elex. The Economists Intelligence Unit echoes the warning as does the Greek Analyst. Exit polls from Greece at 7pm local time (5pm UK). They should be taken with a pinch of salt, as should even-less-reliable rumours/leaks. People following #ekloges2015 in #Greece remember: many suburban & rural areas not always covered in most exit polls, yet they matter most! Updated at 5.16pm GMT 4.32pm GMT16:32 There are set to be four main exit polls just after the polls close in half an hour, according to Manos Giakoumis, chief analyst at the thinktank Macro Polis. 4 exit polls @ 5pm (UK). The main from 5 TV channels, Macedonia Uni 4 Skai, Pulse 4 Action24 & Kapa Research 4 ToVima. #Greece #ekloges2015 We should wait for these before getting too excited by reports of leaked exit polls giving Syriza a big lead, many have cautioned. Some "exit poll" leaks show a SYRIZA-ND difference >10% and a battle for 3rd. Real exit polls out in 30mins #greeceElections #ekloges2015 Exit polls in 40 mins might clear up some of speculation about Greek elections but they have been off in recent years #Greece #ekloges2015 Updated at 5.15pm GMT 4.20pm GMT16:20 Anecdotal evidence suggests that New Democracy – the dominant force in prime minister Antonis Samaras’ outgoing coalition – is haemorrhaging votes to Syriza, writes Helena Smith in Athens. The pattern of voting looks to be following May’s European election, which saw Syriza topping the poll. Several Greeks have told the Guardian they would be switching vote. Sophia Tzeorgou, a retired shop keeper, emerged from a polling station in Athens saying for the first time ever she had embraced the leftists. “I am 66 and have voted New Democracy all my life, just as my mother and father did before me,” she said. “Now me, my husband and two daughters are all supporting Syriza. There is no other way. Those who have been holding power over us have to go. They have taken everything from us. There is nothing more to give.” She added that her family’s disposable income had dropped by about €1,000 a month because of taxes, cuts and loss of benefits. Updated at 5.15pm GMT 3.59pm GMT15:59 With just over an hour to go before polls close, this chart helps explain how the percentage of the vote necessary to secure a majority varies depending on how many of the smaller parties reach the 3% threshold necessary to secure a seat (see earlier). Greece exit polls out at 5pm (London time). Worth keeping this @MacroPolis_gr chart with % needed for maj. to hand pic.twitter.com/BVOCNFSGZz Updated at 5.14pm GMT 3.48pm GMT15:48 New Democracy demands inquiry into exit poll leak The New Democracy party have demanded a judicial inquiry into leaked early exit polls that supposedly put Syriza as much as 12 or even 14 points ahead, according to the English website of the Kathimerini newspaper. This does give the exit poll a little more credence, but it should still be treated with caution, according to Jon Henley in Athens. Some observers are getting excited. Nea Dimokratia denounces exit poll leaks of up to 14% lead of SYRIZA.No smoke without fire #ekloges2015 #ekloges #greeceElections Updated at 5.13pm GMT 3.42pm GMT15:42 Germany is bracing itself for the results, writes Louise Osborne in Berlin. The country’s biggest daily, Bild, claims Syriza no longer wants conditions to be dictated by Europe, and that therefore “all that remains for the Greeks is an exit from the eurozone and a return to the drachma”. Earlier this month, leaks from the German government suggested that Berlin was relaxed about Greece leaving the euro. But the report was later denied. Updated at 3.51pm GMT 3.36pm GMT15:36 While we enter the final 90 minutes of polling why not check to see if your finances are any more robust than Greece’s? Updated at 3.36pm GMT 3.33pm GMT15:33 Monitors representing Syriza in polling stations around Athens say they are very exited by unofficial exit polls that give the leftists a much bigger lead than thought, writes Helena Smith. As the vote is still under way no one wants to go on the record – quite yet. But reports are being confirmed by analysts, who put the difference at as much as 12 percentage points (38-26) – an outcome that would likely give Alexis Tsipras’ Syriza party an outright majority in Athens’ 300-seat House. Greece’s incumbent prime minister, Antonis Samaras, is apparently hunkered down in his office with top cadres from his conservative New Democracy party. The mood in the New Democracy camp according to the Greek media “is anything but good”. Updated at 3.50pm GMT 3.20pm GMT15:20 Tsipras buoyant Syriza leader Alexis Tsipras was in a buoyant mood as he cast his vote, writes Jon Henley in Athens. Surrounded by a throng of reporters and chanting supporters, Tsipras declared election day to be the “last step of the Greek people towards regaining social cohesion and dignity”. Europe’s future was “not the future of austerity – it is the future of democracy, solidarity and cooperation,” he added. Tsipras: "Today is the last step of the Greek people towards regaining their dignity" pic.twitter.com/o1InJtulZH Updated at 3.49pm GMT 3.15pm GMT15:15 Early exit polls give Syriza lead It is still far too early to start predicting results, but early leaked exit polls suggest a good night ahead for Syriza. One puts Syriza 6% ahead, another give the party a staggering 12% lead. #Greece Far left Syriza heading to poss LANDSLIDE. Random exit polls giving it 12 pt lead, analysts tell me #ekgloges2015 The official exit polls are not expected until 5pm GMT, and seasoned observers of Greek politics warn us to be patient. By which is meant: ignore any exit polls "leaked" before 7pm Athens time. I certainly will, as always #ekloges2015 #Greece | RIA Novosti claims to have early exit polls: http://t.co/Ojj6mHzES6 Take it with a pinch of salt | #ekloges2015 Updated at 3.48pm GMT 2.58pm GMT14:58 Confused by how the Greek election system works? The Irate Greek explains a rule of thumb over what percentage of the vote will be enough to secure a majority of the 300 parliamentary seats. It all depends on how many of the smaller parties reach the 3% threshold necessary to secure a seat. To determine the percentage of nationwide votes needed to secure a majority, you should deduct from 100% the percentage of valid votes obtained by parties who did not reach the 3% threshold and multiply the percentage left by 0.404. If parties who did not reach the 3% threshold obtained 8.5% of all valid votes nationwide, the minimum percentage of votes needed to secure a majority in parliament is (100%-8.5%)*0.404 = 36.96% In the 6 May 2012 elections, parties that did not reach the 3% threshold obtained 19.03% of votes. This means that a party with as little as 32.71% of votes would secure a majority in government. Following final results, the allocation of seats in parliament stands as follows: Nea Dimokratia (conservative): 18.85% of votes, 108 seatsSyriza (leftwing): 16.78% of votes, 52 seats Pazok (socialist): 13.18% of votes, 41 seats Independent Greeks (populist nationalist right-wing): 10.60% of votes, 33 seats Communist Party: 8.48% of votes, 26 seatsGolden Dawn (neo-nazi): 6.97% of votes, 21 seatsDemocratic Left: 6.11% of votes, 19 seats Reuters adds further explanation: If all parties running get into parliament, the threshold for outright victory is just over 40%, but the majority drops depending on how many votes go to parties that fail to clear the 3% entry threshold If, for example, 5% of the vote goes to parties that fail to get into parliament, the margin for victory could be around 38%. If there is no outright winner, president Karolos Papoulias gives the leader of the biggest party a mandate to form a coalition or gain agreement for a minority government. Should this fail, the exploratory mandate is handed to the second party, and then to the third. If the parties cannot agree, the president holds a final meeting with party leaders. If they still cannot agree, he appoints a caretaker government to call new elections. Updated at 3.12pm GMT 2.36pm GMT14:36 Summary Welcome to our live coverage of the final stages of an election that could have profound consequences for Greece and the future of Europe. The main contest is between the frontrunner Syriza – the leftwing opposition party led by Alexis Tsipras, and the governing centre-right New Democracy party led by prime minister Antonis Samaras. The benchmark for a workable majority is around 37% of the vote. Under Greek election rules, the winning party automatically gets a bonus of 50 extra seats in the 300-seat parliament. The polls are due to close at 5pm GMT (7pm local time). Exit polls are expected soon after and we should have a clear idea of the likely result by around 8pm GMT (10pm local time). Syriza is expected to emerge as the victor, if numerous opinion polls are to be believed. But the key question is whether it will win enough seats to govern alone, or whether, as seems more likely, it will have to form a coalition with another party. Syriza has consistently led the polls with a three percentage point gap over the governing centre-right New Democracy party in the poll of polls. That gap widened in the latter stages of the short campaign, with polls last week giving Syriza leads of 6% and 6.5%. Syriza has insisted it does not want Greece to leave the euro, but it has also campaigned to write off half of Greece’s crippling €320bn debt, end austerity and the neoliberal economic reforms. Such conditions would be intolerable to the troika – the European commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund – which agreed to a Greek bailout worth $240bn. So the election is likely to throw Greece into a collision with Europe and the banks. And if Greece was forced out of the euro, would other austerity-hit and debt-burdened European countries follow? Here’s some useful background reading: After six years of recession – during which three centre-right coalitions failed to raise the country from its knees – young, unemployed, frustrated Greeks are looking for a new way out. Phoebe Greenwood meets Syriza and the young people voting for change: Updated at 2.45pm GMT |