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| Updates: Up to 3 feet of snow expected in paralyzing Northeast blizzard | Updates: Up to 3 feet of snow expected in paralyzing Northeast blizzard |
| (about 1 hour later) | |
| Forecast snow totals: | Forecast snow totals: |
| Update at 2:05 p.m.: Moderate snow is falling across New York City and Long Island, snarling traffic. It looks even the treated roads are becoming snow-coated at this point. Moisture is really surging into the Northeast now, and conditions will continue to deteriorate as the storm deepens and pushes north. | |
| This could take awhile… Current situation in Westbury area of LI #NYCOrBust #blizzardof2015 pic.twitter.com/NBpViUNI65 — Laura Behnke (@LauraBehnke) January 26, 2015 | |
| This could take awhile… Current situation in Westbury area of LI #NYCOrBust #blizzardof2015 pic.twitter.com/NBpViUNI65 | |
| — Laura Behnke (@LauraBehnke) January 26, 2015 | |
| Update at 1:26 p.m.: The morning run of the European model has come in, and it shows a few differences from previous runs, though the overall message remains the same. | |
| The biggest change — and of course, this is really pulling hairs at this point — is the decrease in moisture over New York City, which would mean lower snow fall totals there. The Euro *only* pumps out 1-1.5 inches of liquid over New York City. I say *only* because in any other snow storm, that would be a very large amount of precipitation. But this storm is a bit superlative to start with. | |
| To understand what this forecast means for snow, we need to talk about snow-to-liquid equivalent. This model run is saying that when you take the snow that falls over New York City and melt it down, you’ll get 1 inch of water. But it’s going to fall as light, fluffy snow, which is where it gets a little tricky. A typical snow-to-liquid ratio is 10-to-1, or 10 inches of snow for every 1 inch of liquid. But in colder storms — like this one — the ratio goes up to as much as 1-to-15, or up to 15 inches of snow. | |
| Again, the Euro model really pumps out the moisture over eastern Massachusetts — 3 to 3.5 inches of liquid, which would mean anywhere from 30 to 50 inches of snow, depending on the actual ratio. | |
| ECMWF 12z precip shield slightly east of NYC. Eastern Mass including Boston crushed even hard. 3.4'' QPF … 30-50'' depending on ratio — Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) January 26, 2015 | |
| ECMWF 12z precip shield slightly east of NYC. Eastern Mass including Boston crushed even hard. 3.4'' QPF … 30-50'' depending on ratio | |
| — Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) January 26, 2015 | |
| Here’s what the above liquid moisture map would end up looking like in snow inches with a 10-to-1 ratio: | |
| Update at 1 p.m.: The National Weather Service has increased their “most likely” snow accumulation around the New York City area, and across Brooklyn, Queens, the Bronx, Long Island and southern Connecticut. They are back to 24 to 36 inches in these areas, but Manhattan and Staten Island remains in an 18 to 24 inch forecast. | Update at 1 p.m.: The National Weather Service has increased their “most likely” snow accumulation around the New York City area, and across Brooklyn, Queens, the Bronx, Long Island and southern Connecticut. They are back to 24 to 36 inches in these areas, but Manhattan and Staten Island remains in an 18 to 24 inch forecast. |
| Again, New York’s final totals will depend heavily on the exact track of the nor’easter, as well as where the heaviest snow bands set up. | Again, New York’s final totals will depend heavily on the exact track of the nor’easter, as well as where the heaviest snow bands set up. |
| Update at 12:40 p.m.: A blast from the past! This photo was taken in Manhattan on Feb. 12, 2006, after 26.9 inches of snow fell — the snowiest storm on record for New York City. The the photographer writes that there is, in fact, a car under there. Thanks to Shaun Tanner at Weather Underground for *digging* that one up! | Update at 12:40 p.m.: A blast from the past! This photo was taken in Manhattan on Feb. 12, 2006, after 26.9 inches of snow fell — the snowiest storm on record for New York City. The the photographer writes that there is, in fact, a car under there. Thanks to Shaun Tanner at Weather Underground for *digging* that one up! |
| Update at 12:28 p.m.: Here at the Capital Weather Gang, we talk a lot about our confidence in the forecast. After all, a big snow forecast means very little if you’re completely uncertain about it. So how confident is the National Weather Service in their snowfall forecast? They seem fairly confident, given their forecast probabilities. | Update at 12:28 p.m.: Here at the Capital Weather Gang, we talk a lot about our confidence in the forecast. After all, a big snow forecast means very little if you’re completely uncertain about it. So how confident is the National Weather Service in their snowfall forecast? They seem fairly confident, given their forecast probabilities. |
| Around Boston, the NWS is forecasting a 100 percent probability that most areas in eastern Massachusetts will see at least 12 inches of snow, and a 90 percent probability that they will see at least 18 inches, as shown in the graphic below: | Around Boston, the NWS is forecasting a 100 percent probability that most areas in eastern Massachusetts will see at least 12 inches of snow, and a 90 percent probability that they will see at least 18 inches, as shown in the graphic below: |
| Given the uncertainty between model forecasts, the Weather Service in New York City a little less sure of the forecast, but not by much. The NWS is giving areas around New York, Long Island, and southern Connecticut an 80 to 90 percent chance of seeing at least 12 inches of snow. | Given the uncertainty between model forecasts, the Weather Service in New York City a little less sure of the forecast, but not by much. The NWS is giving areas around New York, Long Island, and southern Connecticut an 80 to 90 percent chance of seeing at least 12 inches of snow. |
| These differences in forecast certainty stems from the disagreement in the models on the storm’s final track, it’s forward speed, and thereby how much moisture will fall in the New York area. The models are still showing a lot of “spread” across the region — meaning some are showing low snow accumulation (10 to 15 inches) and some are showing very high accumulation (20 to 30 inches). | These differences in forecast certainty stems from the disagreement in the models on the storm’s final track, it’s forward speed, and thereby how much moisture will fall in the New York area. The models are still showing a lot of “spread” across the region — meaning some are showing low snow accumulation (10 to 15 inches) and some are showing very high accumulation (20 to 30 inches). |
| The Weather Service takes all of this into account for their final forecast (still 18 to 24 inches across the region), but has weighted it more toward the higher forecasts given that a few of the models are coming into agreement in that range. The tricky part of these coastal storms is that the highest snowfall totals will occur where the heaviest snow bands set up — and it’s very difficult to forecast where that might be, even just 12 hours before the onset of the biggest impacts. | The Weather Service takes all of this into account for their final forecast (still 18 to 24 inches across the region), but has weighted it more toward the higher forecasts given that a few of the models are coming into agreement in that range. The tricky part of these coastal storms is that the highest snowfall totals will occur where the heaviest snow bands set up — and it’s very difficult to forecast where that might be, even just 12 hours before the onset of the biggest impacts. |
| Update at 11:45 a.m.: The morning run of the GFS is in, and it’s showing less than 10 inches of snow for the N.Y.C. metro, and around 20 inches in southeast Massachusetts. This forecast is a few inches down from the previous run of the model. The GFS has tended to be on the low end of the snowfall forecasts since this storm came into focus over the weekend. | Update at 11:45 a.m.: The morning run of the GFS is in, and it’s showing less than 10 inches of snow for the N.Y.C. metro, and around 20 inches in southeast Massachusetts. This forecast is a few inches down from the previous run of the model. The GFS has tended to be on the low end of the snowfall forecasts since this storm came into focus over the weekend. |
| The difference between the GFS model and the NAM rests in the track and timing forecast. The GFS model tracks the storm a little bit further to the east, which means the heavier snow will fall over the water. The NAM is also slower with the storm, which means the duration of snow over land would be longer, leading to higher accumulation. | The difference between the GFS model and the NAM rests in the track and timing forecast. The GFS model tracks the storm a little bit further to the east, which means the heavier snow will fall over the water. The NAM is also slower with the storm, which means the duration of snow over land would be longer, leading to higher accumulation. |
| You’ll often hear that the “European model is better than the GFS,” but I will say that the GFS has been performing well this winter, so it’s probably not wise to discount the idea of these lower accumulations. That being said, we’re talking about a foot of snow as the “low end” of the forecast range — this will likely be a high accumulation storm in any case. | You’ll often hear that the “European model is better than the GFS,” but I will say that the GFS has been performing well this winter, so it’s probably not wise to discount the idea of these lower accumulations. That being said, we’re talking about a foot of snow as the “low end” of the forecast range — this will likely be a high accumulation storm in any case. |
| People in Connecticut are taking no risks this afternoon. The bottled water shelves are barren in Bristol. | People in Connecticut are taking no risks this afternoon. The bottled water shelves are barren in Bristol. |
| Bare shelves in Bristol, CT. @toddstarnes @JenCarfagno @JimCantore @ShawnRTV6 @weatherchannel #Juno #blizzardof2015 pic.twitter.com/ZpJtTLQu58 — Alex Sturgill (@alexsturgill) January 26, 2015 | Bare shelves in Bristol, CT. @toddstarnes @JenCarfagno @JimCantore @ShawnRTV6 @weatherchannel #Juno #blizzardof2015 pic.twitter.com/ZpJtTLQu58 — Alex Sturgill (@alexsturgill) January 26, 2015 |
| Bare shelves in Bristol, CT. @toddstarnes @JenCarfagno @JimCantore @ShawnRTV6 @weatherchannel #Juno #blizzardof2015 pic.twitter.com/ZpJtTLQu58 | Bare shelves in Bristol, CT. @toddstarnes @JenCarfagno @JimCantore @ShawnRTV6 @weatherchannel #Juno #blizzardof2015 pic.twitter.com/ZpJtTLQu58 |
| — Alex Sturgill (@alexsturgill) January 26, 2015 | — Alex Sturgill (@alexsturgill) January 26, 2015 |
| Update at 11:15 a.m.: Let’s talk details about timing — when will the worst conditions occur, and how long will they last? | Update at 11:15 a.m.: Let’s talk details about timing — when will the worst conditions occur, and how long will they last? |
| Morning model runs (GFS, NAM) are suggesting the worst impacts (ie. high snowfall rates and white-out conditions) will spread from N.Y.C. to Boston starting this evening, peaking between Midnight and 8 a.m. Tuesday morning, and then gradually letting up after that. | Morning model runs (GFS, NAM) are suggesting the worst impacts (ie. high snowfall rates and white-out conditions) will spread from N.Y.C. to Boston starting this evening, peaking between Midnight and 8 a.m. Tuesday morning, and then gradually letting up after that. |
| However, snow is already pushing north from Philadelphia to Connecticut and Rhode Island at this point, and snow (though not intense, white-out condition snow) will linger in these areas through Tuesday afternoon. | However, snow is already pushing north from Philadelphia to Connecticut and Rhode Island at this point, and snow (though not intense, white-out condition snow) will linger in these areas through Tuesday afternoon. |
| Greg Carbin, the warning coordination meteorologist at the Storm Prediction Center, shared the “duration in blizzard conditions” forecast from the NAM model. The light and dark purple areas span nine to 16 hours, and the light blue represents a widespread swath of six to nine hours in blizzard conditions. This includes locations from New York City through Connecticut and eastern Massachusetts. | Greg Carbin, the warning coordination meteorologist at the Storm Prediction Center, shared the “duration in blizzard conditions” forecast from the NAM model. The light and dark purple areas span nine to 16 hours, and the light blue represents a widespread swath of six to nine hours in blizzard conditions. This includes locations from New York City through Connecticut and eastern Massachusetts. |
| Will be interesting to verify with sfc obs. Solid 6-8 hours of blizzard condx; NAM4 fcst through Tues. #NorEaster pic.twitter.com/ZmNsxfV7xs — Greg Carbin (@GCarbin) January 26, 2015 | Will be interesting to verify with sfc obs. Solid 6-8 hours of blizzard condx; NAM4 fcst through Tues. #NorEaster pic.twitter.com/ZmNsxfV7xs — Greg Carbin (@GCarbin) January 26, 2015 |
| Will be interesting to verify with sfc obs. Solid 6-8 hours of blizzard condx; NAM4 fcst through Tues. #NorEaster pic.twitter.com/ZmNsxfV7xs | Will be interesting to verify with sfc obs. Solid 6-8 hours of blizzard condx; NAM4 fcst through Tues. #NorEaster pic.twitter.com/ZmNsxfV7xs |
| — Greg Carbin (@GCarbin) January 26, 2015 | — Greg Carbin (@GCarbin) January 26, 2015 |
| Sixteen hours of solid blizzard conditions is pretty mind-boggling, and we need to take that forecast with a grain of salt. In the areas hardest hit by the storm, six to nine hours of blizzard conditions seems more likely, and many areas will probably see on-and-off white-outs, instead of a solid duration. | Sixteen hours of solid blizzard conditions is pretty mind-boggling, and we need to take that forecast with a grain of salt. In the areas hardest hit by the storm, six to nine hours of blizzard conditions seems more likely, and many areas will probably see on-and-off white-outs, instead of a solid duration. |
| But like Greg says, it will be interesting to compare this forecast to what we see on the ground. | But like Greg says, it will be interesting to compare this forecast to what we see on the ground. |
| Update at 10:40 a.m.: WBZ-Boston meteorologist Eric Fisher suggests not reading too much into the forecast snow totals, and we agree with him. The range of potential snow is large, and the difference between 2 and 3 feet of snow, in terms of impact, is negligible, particularly in the Boston area. | Update at 10:40 a.m.: WBZ-Boston meteorologist Eric Fisher suggests not reading too much into the forecast snow totals, and we agree with him. The range of potential snow is large, and the difference between 2 and 3 feet of snow, in terms of impact, is negligible, particularly in the Boston area. |
| The take-home message for this nor’easter forecast is the high snowfall rates in combination with strong winds, which will lead to white-out conditions. Power outages will also be a guarantee in some locations as 50 to even 80 mph gusts bring down power lines. | The take-home message for this nor’easter forecast is the high snowfall rates in combination with strong winds, which will lead to white-out conditions. Power outages will also be a guarantee in some locations as 50 to even 80 mph gusts bring down power lines. |
| Overall, don't even worry about the snow totals. We're all getting a ton of it, will be very strong winds, drifts, and impossible travel. — Eric Fisher (@ericfisher) January 26, 2015 | Overall, don't even worry about the snow totals. We're all getting a ton of it, will be very strong winds, drifts, and impossible travel. — Eric Fisher (@ericfisher) January 26, 2015 |
| Overall, don't even worry about the snow totals. We're all getting a ton of it, will be very strong winds, drifts, and impossible travel. | Overall, don't even worry about the snow totals. We're all getting a ton of it, will be very strong winds, drifts, and impossible travel. |
| — Eric Fisher (@ericfisher) January 26, 2015 | — Eric Fisher (@ericfisher) January 26, 2015 |
| Update at 10:10 a.m.: A new forecast model run has come in – the morning run of the NAM – increasing the snowfall totals for New York City. This back-and-forth forecast for the southern part of the storm is not surprising. It’s still very uncertain where the heaviest snow bands will set up, and each model run is fed with new, current data to try and guess where that might be. | Update at 10:10 a.m.: A new forecast model run has come in – the morning run of the NAM – increasing the snowfall totals for New York City. This back-and-forth forecast for the southern part of the storm is not surprising. It’s still very uncertain where the heaviest snow bands will set up, and each model run is fed with new, current data to try and guess where that might be. |
| This forecast maxes out the StormVista color scale at 30 inches over Long Island, Connecticut, and a portion of southern New Hampshire and north-central Massachusetts. There’s no change to the National Weather Service snow forecast at this time — they are still going with 18 to 24 inches. | This forecast maxes out the StormVista color scale at 30 inches over Long Island, Connecticut, and a portion of southern New Hampshire and north-central Massachusetts. There’s no change to the National Weather Service snow forecast at this time — they are still going with 18 to 24 inches. |
| A travel ban is in effect for the entire state of Connecticut starting at 9 p.m. tonight. | A travel ban is in effect for the entire state of Connecticut starting at 9 p.m. tonight. |
| We will issue a travel ban for the entire State of #CT beginning at 9PM this evening — Governor Dan Malloy (@GovMalloyOffice) January 26, 2015 | We will issue a travel ban for the entire State of #CT beginning at 9PM this evening — Governor Dan Malloy (@GovMalloyOffice) January 26, 2015 |
| We will issue a travel ban for the entire State of #CT beginning at 9PM this evening | We will issue a travel ban for the entire State of #CT beginning at 9PM this evening |
| — Governor Dan Malloy (@GovMalloyOffice) January 26, 2015 | — Governor Dan Malloy (@GovMalloyOffice) January 26, 2015 |
| Original post | Original post |
| The snow is already falling in the Northeast on Monday morning — just the beginning of a multi-day nor’easter that could become one of the snowiest on record for the region. | The snow is already falling in the Northeast on Monday morning — just the beginning of a multi-day nor’easter that could become one of the snowiest on record for the region. |
| One to 3 feet of snow, damaging winds, and white-out conditions are expected. Thousands of flights have been canceled. The National Weather Service is calling it a “crippling and potentially historic blizzard.” | One to 3 feet of snow, damaging winds, and white-out conditions are expected. Thousands of flights have been canceled. The National Weather Service is calling it a “crippling and potentially historic blizzard.” |
| D.C. live updates: Snow, rain, and wintry mix today, areas of snow tonight | D.C. live updates: Snow, rain, and wintry mix today, areas of snow tonight |
| The entire Northeast coast, from New Jersey to Maine, is covered in blizzard and winter storm warnings on Monday in anticipation of what could be the strongest East Coast winter storm in at least a decade. Over 29 million people are under a blizzard warning, and 14 million people are under a winter storm warning. From New York City to Boston, the worst impacts — heaviest snow, strongest winds – will hit between Monday night and Tuesday afternoon. | The entire Northeast coast, from New Jersey to Maine, is covered in blizzard and winter storm warnings on Monday in anticipation of what could be the strongest East Coast winter storm in at least a decade. Over 29 million people are under a blizzard warning, and 14 million people are under a winter storm warning. From New York City to Boston, the worst impacts — heaviest snow, strongest winds – will hit between Monday night and Tuesday afternoon. |
| Forecast snow totals: | Forecast snow totals: |
| The storm’s final track will determine who sees the most snow this week. Though forecasts have been wavering on the snow totals in New York City, Boston has consistently been in the snowy bull’s-eye of this nor’easter. On Monday morning, the National Weather Service was forecasting 24 to 36 inches of snow for almost all of eastern Massachusetts, including Boston. Those forecast totals stretch south into Rhode Island and Connecticut. | The storm’s final track will determine who sees the most snow this week. Though forecasts have been wavering on the snow totals in New York City, Boston has consistently been in the snowy bull’s-eye of this nor’easter. On Monday morning, the National Weather Service was forecasting 24 to 36 inches of snow for almost all of eastern Massachusetts, including Boston. Those forecast totals stretch south into Rhode Island and Connecticut. |
| Around New York, the snow forecast has been reduced since Sunday night — though the difference in impact could prove to be negligible. The Weather Service’s “most likely” snow forecast for the New York City metro area, Long Island and coastal Connecticut is 18 to 24 inches. | Around New York, the snow forecast has been reduced since Sunday night — though the difference in impact could prove to be negligible. The Weather Service’s “most likely” snow forecast for the New York City metro area, Long Island and coastal Connecticut is 18 to 24 inches. |
| New York City’s snowiest storm on record was Feb. 11-12, 2006, mostly on a Sunday, when 26.9 inches fell. Boston’s snowiest is Feb. 17-18, 2003, with 27.6 inches. Snowfall totals could approach the record in Boston, and the winter storm could be among the highest-impact for the city. | New York City’s snowiest storm on record was Feb. 11-12, 2006, mostly on a Sunday, when 26.9 inches fell. Boston’s snowiest is Feb. 17-18, 2003, with 27.6 inches. Snowfall totals could approach the record in Boston, and the winter storm could be among the highest-impact for the city. |
| Wind gusts are expected to peak at 55 mph across parts of New York City and Long Island, and up to 75 mph in eastern Massachusetts. These wind speeds in combination with snowfall rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour will undoubtedly reduce visibility to near-zero at times, making travel impossible. | Wind gusts are expected to peak at 55 mph across parts of New York City and Long Island, and up to 75 mph in eastern Massachusetts. These wind speeds in combination with snowfall rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour will undoubtedly reduce visibility to near-zero at times, making travel impossible. |
| The storm’s strong winds will do more than cause blizzard conditions across the Northeast. A coastal flood warning is in effect for the entire shoreline of Massachusetts, for moderate to isolated areas of major flooding. The Weather Service writes that “flooding of vulnerable shore roads and basements expected … some structural damage is likely in most vulnerable locations. Severe beach erosion is expected …” | The storm’s strong winds will do more than cause blizzard conditions across the Northeast. A coastal flood warning is in effect for the entire shoreline of Massachusetts, for moderate to isolated areas of major flooding. The Weather Service writes that “flooding of vulnerable shore roads and basements expected … some structural damage is likely in most vulnerable locations. Severe beach erosion is expected …” |
| The Weather Channel’s Jonathan Erdman says that this was the strongest wording he’s seen in a coastal flood warning, outside of hurricane storm surge events. | The Weather Channel’s Jonathan Erdman says that this was the strongest wording he’s seen in a coastal flood warning, outside of hurricane storm surge events. |
| it's happening RT @themexican: Snow has started falling in South Brooklyn. Sidewalks are quickly turning white. pic.twitter.com/ElbcegDI1S — Eric Holthaus (@EricHolthaus) January 26, 2015 | it's happening RT @themexican: Snow has started falling in South Brooklyn. Sidewalks are quickly turning white. pic.twitter.com/ElbcegDI1S — Eric Holthaus (@EricHolthaus) January 26, 2015 |
| it's happening RT @themexican: Snow has started falling in South Brooklyn. Sidewalks are quickly turning white. pic.twitter.com/ElbcegDI1S | it's happening RT @themexican: Snow has started falling in South Brooklyn. Sidewalks are quickly turning white. pic.twitter.com/ElbcegDI1S |
| — Eric Holthaus (@EricHolthaus) January 26, 2015 | — Eric Holthaus (@EricHolthaus) January 26, 2015 |