Chelsea v Manchester City: tactical guide to where the game will be won and lost

http://www.theguardian.com/football/blog/2015/jan/30/chelsea-manchester-city-tactical-guide-michael-cox

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Saturday’s evening kick-off sees the two best teams in the Premier League go head to head in what should be a fascinating tactical battle. Both sides have weaknesses that have been exploited in recent weeks and could provide the key to who wins.

Space behind Chelsea’s midfield open to attack

This is arguably the most attack-minded and fluid team José Mourinho has ever assembled, which has produced an exciting, dynamic brand of football. The downside, however, is that Chelsea can be exposed defensively, especially against fast, direct attacking, as Tottenham and Liverpool have demonstrated in recent weeks.

In particular Chelsea can be vulnerable because of Cesc Fàbregas’s advanced positioning. While the Spaniard has been in superb form this season, racking up 15 Premier League assists, his creativity depends on running beyond team-mates, which often leaves a hole in the centre of midfield. Therefore the holding midfielder, Nemanja Matic, is forced to cover a huge zone in front of the back four and can be dragged towards the flank, leaving space on the opposite side.

Manchester City could be excellent at exploiting this weakness. Manuel Pellegrini is likely to continue with David Silva as his No10 and the Spanish playmaker excels by drifting into pockets of space either side of holding midfielders, creating chances and subtly drawing opponents out of position. The danger man, therefore, might be the player who drifts inside into the space created by Silva. James Milner could start on the left and move inside – or it could be Silva himself starting on the left, if Pellegrini decides to play two strikers.

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Mourinho will be fully aware of this weakness, however, and might consider changing his team accordingly, especially if Fàbregas is deemed unfit after limping off against Liverpool. Matic and Mikel John Obi were superb together in Chelsea’s 1-0 victory at City last season, while Mourinho also heavily praised Ramires in midweek and the Brazilian could bring more discipline to Chelsea’s midfield. Chelsea have been open and exciting this season but Mourinho will urge caution this weekend. He would probably accept a draw.

City vulnerable to one-twos

Manchester City were defeated by Arsenal in their previous Premier League fixture, falling behind after Vincent Kompany conceded a penalty for a clumsy foul on Nacho Monreal. That zone, to the right of City’s defence, often appears their area of weakness.

While Kompany and Pablo Zabaleta are solid individually, they both defend aggressively, pushing out quickly to shut down their opponent, which can leave space in behind if the defenders on the opposite side of the pitch do not push out simultaneously. Zabaleta likes sticking tight to wingers, while Kompany races out powerfully to make tackles and often finds himself unable to recover if quickly turned. If opponents play quick one-twos, they can get round this duo.

This will be particularly worrying for Pellegrini this weekend, because Chelsea’s Eden Hazard loves prompting one-twos in those situations, flicking passes with the outside of his right boot to the striker (it will be Didier Drogba on Saturday if Diego Costa is absent), then racing past his full-back, a move Chelsea repeatedly attempted in the midweek Capital One Cup victory over Liverpool. City might be vulnerable to this move, not only because of the positioning of Zabaleta and Kompany but also because their defence plays an unusual offside trap, holding the defensive line on the edge of the penalty area and refusing to drop any deeper. In certain situations, that invites through-balls in behind.

Hazard has given Zabaleta problems previously – the Argentinian simply cannot cope with Hazard’s turn of speed, which was obvious in last season’s meeting at Stamford Bridge when Hazard burst past him repeatedly, then produced a wonderful piece of skill near the touchline to leave Zabaleta on the ground. The Belgian has the ability to dribble past on the outside, or check inside on to his right foot, but his straight-line, off-the-ball runs when playing a wall pass are even more difficult to track.