Super Bowl XLIX analysis: why the Patriots will edge the Seahawks
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Version 0 of 1. Super Bowl XLIX is upon us, and on paper it looks like a doozy. Then again, we said something similar at this time last year. For the second consecutive season we have a title game featuring the top seeds from either conference. It is a curious quirk of history that such match-ups have tended not to produce close games. The average margin of victory in Super Bowls contested by two No1 seeds stands at 21.5 points. Only once in 10 such encounters has the game been decided by one touchdown or less. Should we brace ourselves, then, for another blowout in Glendale? Perhaps, but if so it is hard to imagine which team would be on the receiving end. The Patriots have suffered one humiliating rout already this season, beaten 41-14 by the Chiefs at the end of September, but since then they have lost just twice – by five points to the Packers at Lambeau Field and then while resting a great number of starters against the Bills in week 17. Related: Memory Lane: Super Bowl – in pictures Seattle, meanwhile, are simply too stingy on defense to make a heavy defeat seem plausible. They gave up average of just 15.9 points during the regular season, and held Green Bay’s explosive offense to 22 despite a catastrophic performance from Russell Wilson, who turned the ball over four times. So let us hope that these are the teams who can buck the trend, giving us something closer to San Francisco’s 26-21 win over Cincinnati in January 1982 than to the 49ers’ 55-10 triumph over the Broncos eight years later. After all, it is going to be seven long months after Sunday until we get our next NFL fix. And the end of a season also means the end of our Pick The Playoffs contest. Nine people are still in the running for first place, while the title of overall champion – combining the playoff standings with our regular season Pick Six – is now a two-horse race. If you are in the running (and we’ll post the standings below the line shortly), then make sure you give not only a winner for Sunday’s game, but also a predicted final score. This will be used as a tie-breaker, if required. Patriots offense vs Seahawks defense New England averaged 29.2 points per game in 2014, and even that impressive figure does not tell the full story. The Patriots responded to their defeat at Kansas City by going on an almighty tear, winning seven games straight and posting some outlandish scores along the way. They put 34 points on a Lions team that ranked third in the league in scoring defense, and 37 on a Bills side that was fourth in the same category. A resurgent Brady has made a mockery of suggestions that he was finished (ahem), throwing the ball as well as we have seen him do in years, but he and his team-mates have also been aided by creative scheming from Bill Belichick. The Pats’ offense have bamboozled both the Ravens and Colts so far in this postseason by alternately using formations with six or four offensive linemen. Seattle’s defenders will have an advantage denied to Baltimore and Indianapolis, Pete Carroll relaying the news on Thursday that the NFL had introduced a new hand gesture for its officials to use in pointing out the players with eligible numbers who had been designated as ineligible to catch a pass on any given play. But it is one thing to identify a threat and another to neutralise it. And Belichick’s great talent is varying his game plan to exploit the weaknesses of each opponent. Related: Pete Carroll and baseball's most feared man: an unlikely tale of friendship This will be a fascinating coaching duel, but the good news for Carroll and Seahawks defensive co-ordinator Dan Quinn is that, on this side of the ball, their personnel is superior. Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril are fine pass rushing ends who should have success against a mediocre Patriots offensive line. A secondary packing in Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor, Earl Thomas, Bobby Wagner and Jeremy Lane ought to be more than a match for receivers Brandon LaFell, Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola. Their greatest challenge will be containing Rob Gronkowski, the one truly elite weapon available to Brady. Lane caused a stir last week by asserting that the tight end was overrated, saying that he could be thrown off his game by defenders who put their hands on him early and denied him a clean release. That is the Seahawks’ specialty, so if nothing else he and his team-mates should have plenty of opportunities to put the theory into action. Then again, with so much attention on Gronkowski, it is tempting to wonder whether Belichick will not put the focus of his offensive gameplan elsewhere. Seattle’s interior run defense has been was weakened considerably by the loss of defensive tackle Brandon Mebane to a torn hamstring in November. The Patriots have a stable of unremarkable backs, but ran the ball very effectively in the AFC Championship game. Seahawks offense vs Patriots defense Seattle must hope that Wilson got the mistakes out of his system against Green Bay. Rare are the teams who can win consistently in the NFL despite losing the turnover battle. And for all that they managed to put up 21 points on their final three possessions (excluding the kneel-down at the end of regulation) of the NFC title game, the Seahawks’ offense is not really designed to put up points in bunches, either. As noted by the Washington Post, Seattle have won just three out of seven games this season in which their opponents scored 20 points or more. Two of those required overtime. In order to be successful against New England, they will likely need to play good defense but also execute a sound ball-control offense that keeps Brady and co off the field. That would most likely mean a heavy dose of Marshawn Lynch, who looked to be in pretty good nick as he shredded the Packers for 157 yards on 25 carries in the NFC title game. Given that the Patriots have allowed 4.7 yards per carry to opposing rushers so far in this postseason, there are good grounds to believe that he can enjoy another productive outing. The most intriguing question on this side of the ball, however, is how the Patriots will cope with the running threat posed by Wilson himself. ProFootballFocus note that New England have faced just two read-option plays all year. Both of those were run by Miami’s Ryan Tannehill – a man who finished the season with 311 rushing yards on an average of 5.6 per attempt. Wilson had 849 yards on an average of 7.2. Related: 'I'd been paid $1m': How to streak at the Super Bowl New England boast sufficient athleticism in their linebacker corps to believe that they could, with the right schemes, slow him down. Theirs is an underrated pass rush, with Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich generating consistent pressure off the edge. In Dont’a Hightower, Jamie Collins and Akeem Ayers they have a young and athletic linebacking corps who might just be able to keep Wilson in check. But we will not know for certain until we see them try. And New England must be careful not to become so focused on the quarterback’s running ability that they forget his ability to hit a deep ball. The Patriots boast one of the league’s best cover corners in Darrelle Revis, while Seattle lack a stand-out talent at wide receiver, but both Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse are capable of home runs if they get overlooked. Special teams Nobody in Seattle is underestimating the importance of special teams. Were it not for a touchdown on a fake field goal, and a successful onside kick, they would be sat at home right now watching the Packers prepare to face New England. But the truth is that the Seahawks were mediocre on special teams for most of the season. Having traded away Percy Harvin, they ranked near the bottom of the league for kick and punt return average, while their own coverage teams were only so-so. The combination of Danny Amendola and Julian Edelman lend New England a greater threat, and the latter player took a punt back 84 yards for a score against Denver in November. The Patriots might also claim an edge at kicker, where Stephen Gostkowski has made 36 of 38 field goals this season (playoffs included), compared to 32 of 38 for Seattle’s Steven Hauschka. Prediction This is an intensely difficult game to call, and I have flip-flopped more than once in the writing of this article. But in the end, the statistic I keep coming back to is that one regarding Seattle’s poor record in higher-scoring games. Will they really keep the Patriots to fewer than 20 points? Only two teams have since Kansas City, and one of those was Buffalo in the end-of-season dead rubber. And so I will go with the Patriots in a nail-biter, Brady sealing his place alongside Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw as the third quarterback ever to win four Super Bowls. And Belichick to almost crack a smile afterwards, only to resume scowling when the first journalist at his post-game press conference raises the subject of deflated balls. Patriots 24-22 Seahawks (Yes, I’m predicting a Seattle safety. Or possibly 11 of them.) |