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| Labour faces crisis in Scotland as Yes voters stay with SNP for general election | Labour faces crisis in Scotland as Yes voters stay with SNP for general election |
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| Senior Labour figures are worried that the party may fail to halt the Scottish National Party’s advance – because many Scots do not believe that Labour can win the general election. | Senior Labour figures are worried that the party may fail to halt the Scottish National Party’s advance – because many Scots do not believe that Labour can win the general election. |
| There is growing Labour alarm that the party’s “Vote SNP, get Cameron” message is failing to win back natural Labour supporters who backed the Yes camp in last September’s independence referendum and are likely to stick with the SNP at the May election. | There is growing Labour alarm that the party’s “Vote SNP, get Cameron” message is failing to win back natural Labour supporters who backed the Yes camp in last September’s independence referendum and are likely to stick with the SNP at the May election. |
| Fears that the SNP surge could prevent Ed Miliband becoming prime minister will be heightened by a University of Strathclyde study to be published today. It will suggest that the SNP retains the support of the 45 per cent who voted Yes in the referendum, and could win up to 45 of Scotland’s 59 seats. Labour currently holds 41 and the SNP just six. | Fears that the SNP surge could prevent Ed Miliband becoming prime minister will be heightened by a University of Strathclyde study to be published today. It will suggest that the SNP retains the support of the 45 per cent who voted Yes in the referendum, and could win up to 45 of Scotland’s 59 seats. Labour currently holds 41 and the SNP just six. |
| Such a turnaround in Scotland would make the Conservatives the largest party at Westminster, with the SNP third – ahead of the Liberal Democrats. | Such a turnaround in Scotland would make the Conservatives the largest party at Westminster, with the SNP third – ahead of the Liberal Democrats. |
| Professor Richard Rose, founder-director of Strathclyde’s Centre for the Study of Public Policy, said: “At the May election, most Scots will not be voting for which Englishman should be in Downing Street, but who can best represent Scotland’s interests in Parliament.” | Professor Richard Rose, founder-director of Strathclyde’s Centre for the Study of Public Policy, said: “At the May election, most Scots will not be voting for which Englishman should be in Downing Street, but who can best represent Scotland’s interests in Parliament.” |
| Labour is bracing itself for more bad news this week when Lord Ashcroft, the former Tory deputy chairman, reveals the findings of his polling in Scottish constituencies. | Labour is bracing itself for more bad news this week when Lord Ashcroft, the former Tory deputy chairman, reveals the findings of his polling in Scottish constituencies. |
| Anas Sarwar, who was Labour’s interim leader in Scotland until Jim Murphy’s election in December, admitted Labour “must demonstrate” it can win in May. The shadow international development spokesman insisted Labour can triumph, warning Scots they risk electing a Conservative government if they back the SNP. | Anas Sarwar, who was Labour’s interim leader in Scotland until Jim Murphy’s election in December, admitted Labour “must demonstrate” it can win in May. The shadow international development spokesman insisted Labour can triumph, warning Scots they risk electing a Conservative government if they back the SNP. |
| Mr Sarwar attacked the Nationalists for talking up a post-election deal in which they would support a minority Labour government in Commons votes to keep the Tories out of power. This had allowed some voters to think they could have the best of both worlds by voting SNP in May and evicting David Cameron from Downing Street. | Mr Sarwar attacked the Nationalists for talking up a post-election deal in which they would support a minority Labour government in Commons votes to keep the Tories out of power. This had allowed some voters to think they could have the best of both worlds by voting SNP in May and evicting David Cameron from Downing Street. |
| Labour claims the SNP’s real agenda is to secure a Tory government to further the cause of Scottish independence. If the UK voted to withdraw from the EU in the 2017 referendum promised by Mr Cameron, while Scots voted to remain, that could be grounds for another independence referendum. | Labour claims the SNP’s real agenda is to secure a Tory government to further the cause of Scottish independence. If the UK voted to withdraw from the EU in the 2017 referendum promised by Mr Cameron, while Scots voted to remain, that could be grounds for another independence referendum. |
| Labour insiders admit the polls reflect a sea change since the referendum rejected a breakaway by 55 to 45 per cent. Many people who normally back the SNP in Scottish Parliament elections have switched to Labour at general elections. “It is not happening this time,” one Labour official admitted. “On the doorsteps, many people don’t want to know [Labour].” | Labour insiders admit the polls reflect a sea change since the referendum rejected a breakaway by 55 to 45 per cent. Many people who normally back the SNP in Scottish Parliament elections have switched to Labour at general elections. “It is not happening this time,” one Labour official admitted. “On the doorsteps, many people don’t want to know [Labour].” |
| Mr Murphy is banking on a late recovery by Labour. He is expected to say today that if Labour wins the general election it will give Scotland greater devolution than planned under “the vow” made by the three main party leaders during the independence campaign. | Mr Murphy is banking on a late recovery by Labour. He is expected to say today that if Labour wins the general election it will give Scotland greater devolution than planned under “the vow” made by the three main party leaders during the independence campaign. |
| “We will deliver on the vow and offer more than the vow: the security of the UK pension and benefits system plus the power for Scotland to top up UK benefits, and create new benefits of our own, because the Scottish Parliament will have the fiscal strength to support this,” he will say. | “We will deliver on the vow and offer more than the vow: the security of the UK pension and benefits system plus the power for Scotland to top up UK benefits, and create new benefits of our own, because the Scottish Parliament will have the fiscal strength to support this,” he will say. |
| Miliband aides believe Mr Murphy’s election has boosted Labour’s prospects, saying he is doing “an outstanding job”. Gordon Brown, the former PM who will leave Parliament in May, is expected to play a key role in Scotland and is being described as Labour’s “secret weapon”. | Miliband aides believe Mr Murphy’s election has boosted Labour’s prospects, saying he is doing “an outstanding job”. Gordon Brown, the former PM who will leave Parliament in May, is expected to play a key role in Scotland and is being described as Labour’s “secret weapon”. |
| Yesterday, Douglas Alexander, who is in charge of Labour’s election campaign, declined to rule out a coalition with the SNP. Mr Salmond, the former First Minister of Scotland, has said a formal coalition was “unlikely”, but that the SNP could support a minority Labour government by striking an agreement ahead of Commons votes. | Yesterday, Douglas Alexander, who is in charge of Labour’s election campaign, declined to rule out a coalition with the SNP. Mr Salmond, the former First Minister of Scotland, has said a formal coalition was “unlikely”, but that the SNP could support a minority Labour government by striking an agreement ahead of Commons votes. |
| Mr Miliband faced more “friendly fire” from inside his party. John Mills, who gave Labour £1.65m in 2013, joined criticism by Blairite former ministers of Labour’s plan to reduce the amount of state-funded NHS care delivered by the private sector. | Mr Miliband faced more “friendly fire” from inside his party. John Mills, who gave Labour £1.65m in 2013, joined criticism by Blairite former ministers of Labour’s plan to reduce the amount of state-funded NHS care delivered by the private sector. |