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U.S. Joins Europe in Efforts to End Fighting in Ukraine U.S. and Europe Working to End Ukraine Fighting
(about 7 hours later)
KIEV, Ukraine — With fighting intensifying in eastern Ukraine and the White House weighing whether to send arms to bolster the government’s forces, Western leaders embarked on a broad diplomatic effort on Thursday aimed at ending a conflict that has strained relations with Russia. KIEV, Ukraine — With fighting intensifying in eastern Ukraine and the White House weighing whether to send arms to bolster the government’s forces, Western leaders embarked on a concerted diplomatic effort on Thursday aimed at ending a conflict that has strained relations with Russia.
Yet, the prospects of achieving a new peace plan remained clouded by deep suspicions of Moscow, born of its history of dissembling about its intentions and operations in Ukraine, Western diplomats and Ukrainian officials said. Despite the burst of activity, the prospects of achieving a new peace plan have been clouded by deep suspicion of Moscow’s aims in Ukraine. At the same time, the arrest in Kiev on Wednesday of a senior officer on charges of spying for Russia has raised concerns that the Ukrainian military has been infiltrated, complicating any plans for sending arms to Kiev.
Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany and President François Hollande of France traveled to the Ukrainian capital, Kiev, on Thursday for talks with President Petro O. Poroshenko of Ukraine, officials from the two countries said. While the United States has provided weapons to allies in similarly unstable circumstances, including in Afghanistan and Iraq, Russia’s long historical ties to the Ukrainian military and security apparatus present an unusual challenge.
On Friday, Ms. Merkel and Mr. Hollande are to continue to Moscow, to meet with President Vladimir V. Putin to discuss a new initiative from the Kremlin to end the fighting in Ukraine, which has killed more than 5,000 people and displaced hundreds of thousands over the past year. Mr. Hollande said that he and Ms. Merkel would present an initiative to end the fighting and guarantee the “full territorial integrity” of Ukraine. “Very often one cannot tell where the F.S.B. stops and one of our military units begins,” said Semyon Semenchenko, a pro-government paramilitary leader and member of the Ukrainian Parliament, referring to the Russian successor to the K.G.B.
The German and French moves were announced as Secretary of State John Kerry arrived in Kiev for high-level talks. Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. prepared for parallel consultations on Friday with European leaders in Brussels. Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany and President François Hollande of France traveled to the Ukrainian capital, Kiev, on Thursday, where they met for more than five hours with President Petro O. Poroshenko of Ukraine. In a statement issued after 1 a.m. Friday, Mr. Poroshenko’s office said the leaders had discussed how to implement a truce agreement in the conflict between the government in Kiev and rebel separatists in the country’s east. The accord was brokered in September but never held.
The deep Western distrust of Moscow has been heightened by what diplomats say is the Kremlin's role in the arming, financing and guiding of rebel separatists in the current surge in fighting in eastern Ukraine, even after helping forge a cease-fire in September. As it did in late summer, they say, the Kremlin is stepping in to end fighting that it instigated, but only after achieving its objective of expanding rebel-controlled territory. On Friday, Ms. Merkel and Mr. Hollande are to continue to Moscow, to meet with President Vladimir V. Putin to discuss a new initiative from the Kremlin to end the fighting, which has killed more than 5,000 people and displaced hundreds of thousands over the past year. The German and French moves were announced as Secretary of State John Kerry arrived in Kiev for high-level talks. Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. prepared for parallel consultations on Friday with European leaders in Brussels.
The Western distrust of Moscow’s aims in Ukraine has its roots in what diplomats say is the Kremlin’s role in the arming, financing and guiding of the separatists in the current surge in fighting in eastern Ukraine, even after helping forge a cease-fire in September. As it did in late summer, they say, the Kremlin is stepping in to end fighting that it instigated, but only after achieving its objective of expanding rebel-controlled territory.
Since the accord was signed, the Russian-backed separatists have taken control of about 200 square miles in the east, including the airport at Donetsk, and they are currently threatening Debaltseve, a town that sits astride a critical rail hub.Since the accord was signed, the Russian-backed separatists have taken control of about 200 square miles in the east, including the airport at Donetsk, and they are currently threatening Debaltseve, a town that sits astride a critical rail hub.
Mr. Kerry did not mince words in a news conference Thursday in Kiev, laying blame for the renewed violence in eastern Ukraine at the door of the Kremlin. “We talked about the largest threat that Ukraine faces today, and that is Russia’s continued aggression in the east,” he said after meeting with Ukrainian officials. Mr. Kerry did not mince words in a news conference Thursday in Kiev, laying blame for the renewed violence in eastern Ukraine at the door of the Kremlin: “We talked about the largest threat that Ukraine faces today, and that is Russia’s continued aggression in the east.” He called on Moscow and the separatists to “support and honor the commitment they made to implement a cease-fire, to pull back heavy weapons and troops” and to respect Ukraine’s international border with Russia.
He called on Moscow and the separatists to “support and honor the commitment they made to implement a cease-fire, to pull back heavy weapons and troops” and to respect Ukraine’s international border with Russia. The accelerated Western diplomatic efforts came as the Obama administration was considering whether to send basic weapons like antitank missiles, battlefield radars, reconnaissance drones and other arms to help Ukraine’s beleaguered forces stave off attacks by the separatists and build pressure on Moscow to seek a political settlement.
The accelerated Western diplomatic efforts came as the Obama administration was considering whether to send antitank missiles, battlefield radars, reconnaissance drones and other arms to help Ukraine’s beleaguered forces stave off attacks by the separatists and to build pressure on Moscow to seek a political settlement. Mr. Obama’s top national security officials — the so-called Principals Committee — met on Wednesday to discuss the matter, though no decision was made.
The challenge is to restore the peace agreement, which was negotiated in Minsk, Belarus, in September and has been repeatedly violated, more seriously by the separatists and Russia. The head of the Ukrainian security service, Valentyn Nalyvaichenko, said at a news conference on Wednesday that the accused spy, Lt. Col. Mykhailo Chornobai, had been at the center of an espionage ring in the capital and had passed military secrets directly to an agent of the separatist Donetsk People’s Republic, including the locations of volunteer regiments that were then used to pinpoint artillery attacks.
Russia has sent tanks, rockets and other heavy weapons to the separatists, and has sent about 1,000 of its own troops there to help the rebels with their offensive, according to NATO estimates. Dmytro Tymchuk, a military officer and member of Parliament, said that Colonel Chornobai was among about 300 people working in the military sphere who had been arrested since the start of the conflict.
The assessment of some senior Western officials is that Mr. Putin is trying to supplant the Minsk agreement with a new arrangement that would expand the Kremlin’s influence over Ukraine and would give the separatists a larger, and more economically viable, enclave. The arrest further deepened mistrust of the leadership in Kiev that is already pervasive among the poorly equipped rank-and-file soldiers and midlevel commanders fighting on the front line. And it reinforced a view prevalent on the battlefield that the military leadership cannot be trusted to manage any weapons delivered by Western allies because of their ties to the Russian military and security service, the F.S.B.
Mr. Semenchenko, in an interview before he was wounded over the weekend in heavy fighting in Debaltseve, said that on a recent visit to Washington he had urged officials to send aid directly to the front, bypassing the general staff.
Igor Koziy, a military analyst at the Institute for Euro-Atlantic Cooperation, a research group in Kiev, said the arrest confirmed the worst suspicions of many Ukrainians about the military leadership and also suggested that Russia might have other — even higher-ranking — double agents.
“It’s really a huge question: Should we completely change our armed forces structure,” Mr. Koziy said, noting that one proposal was to build a second, new military structure. “Of course this idea seems very much crazy to create a whole new, parallel general staff,” he said. “But on the other hand when you look at what’s going on today inside this building, you think maybe it’s the right decision.”
An American military expert, while acknowledging problems with some units, did not think the problems were insurmountable. “While intelligence penetration is a risk in some units, it is highly unlikely in others,” Michèle Flournoy, the former undersecretary of defense for policy, wrote Thursday in response to emailed questions. “There is also a risk that some of these weapons may be captured on the battlefield.
“But those risks do not outweigh the dramatic increase in defensive capability these weapons would provide to the Ukranian military,” she added. “One has to consider the much larger risk of not providing additional defensive equipment: the risk that forces backed by Russia could soon move to occupy an even larger swath of eastern Ukraine, dividing and destabilizing the country indefinitely.”
The diplomatic challenge is to restore the peace agreement, which was negotiated in Minsk, Belarus, in September and has been repeatedly violated, more seriously by the separatists and Russia.
Mr. Kerry, who announced $16.4 million in humanitarian assistance for eastern Ukraine, plans to press for a new cease-fire.Mr. Kerry, who announced $16.4 million in humanitarian assistance for eastern Ukraine, plans to press for a new cease-fire.
In a joint appearance with Mr. Poroshenko, Mr. Kerry said that France, Germany and the United States were united in supporting a peaceful resolution to the conflict. And he called for Russia to agree to a cease-fire. But it is the assessment of some senior Western officials that Mr. Putin is trying to supplant the Minsk agreement with a new arrangement that would expand the Kremlin’s influence over Ukraine and give the separatists a larger, and more economically viable, enclave.
“Our choice is a peaceful solution, but Russia needs to make its choices,” Mr. Kerry said. “It is not a peace plan,” said the diplomat, who declined to be identified to comment on confidential diplomatic discussions. “It is a road map to creating a new Transnistria or Abkhazia in Ukraine. It is a cynical effort to get out of all the commitments made in Minsk.”
“There must be an immediate commitment now to a real cease-fire, which is not just a piece of paper,” he added, noting Moscow’s previous violations of cease-fires. Transnistria is a pro-Russian enclave within Moldova; Abkhazia is a breakaway region of Georgia that is effectively under Russian control.
In his statement, Mr. Kerry made no mention of the continuing discussions in the Obama administration over whether to send arms for Ukraine’s forces or what steps the United States might take if Russia continued its military support for the separatists.
The Obama administration’s hope is that its widely reported deliberations over whether to send defensive weapons to Ukraine and about additional economic sanctions will induce Russia to agree to a halt in the fighting and, ultimately, to a political agreement within the framework of the Minsk accord.
But Mr. Kerry and Mr. Biden will also be consulting with European leaders about ways to increase pressure on the Kremlin in the absence of a political resolution. Ms. Merkel plans to visit Washington on Monday, and President Obama could decide on whether to send defensive lethal aid soon after.
“We’ve got to test that now as the talk of pressure increases in the United States, in Europe,” a senior State Department official said, referring to the effort to restore a cease-fire.
“We have a Russian government that is talking the talk of cease-fire, talking the talk of peace, even as it fuels this conflict,” said the official, who could not be identified under the agency’s protocol for briefing reporters.
The public talks are accompanied by an active campaign of background leaks about competing proposals being offered by Moscow and the Western governments.
The two European leaders are coming to Moscow in response to a lengthy proposal that Mr. Putin sent them this week, according to European diplomats, speaking anonymously because official statements have to come from their capitals. It was not an invitation to Moscow, the diplomats said, but rather ideas sketched out on ending the confrontation. They declined to provide details.
The French and German governments said they would present their own proposal to end the fighting but did not give details. In his news conference, Mr. Kerry said that he was still reviewing the plan but said he welcomed the European leaders’ decision to travel to Moscow.
One Western diplomat sharply criticized the Russian proposal. “It is not a peace plan,” said the diplomat, who declined to be identified to comment on confidential diplomatic discussions. “It is a road map to creating a new Transnistria or Abkhazia in Ukraine. It is a cynical effort to get out of all the commitments made in Minsk.”
Transnistria is a Russian enclave within Moldova that is effectively controlled by Moscow; Abkhazia is a breakaway region in Georgia that is also effectively under Russian control.
Many Ukrainians express the same distrust of Russia’s motives, particularly the deployment of so-called peacekeeping forces, as it did in Transnistria and Abkhazia.
“Don’t play a Russian game, because Russia later will take care of all of this area,” said Igor Koziy, a military analyst at the Institute of Euro-Atlantic Cooperation, a research group in Kiev.
Mr. Hollande said France did not favor Ukraine’s entry into the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, but he also said that France would not participate in the debate on whether to provide weapons to Ukraine.
“It will not be said that France and Germany together have not tried everything, undertaken everything to preserve the peace,” he said.
In Moscow, Yuri Ushakov, a senior Kremlin foreign policy adviser, was quoted by Russian news services as saying that Moscow hoped that any plan presented by Ms. Merkel and Mr. Hollande would take into account earlier proposals from Mr. Putin on ending the crisis in Ukraine. The meeting was a “positive step,” he was quoted as saying.
During his visit to Kiev, Mr. Kerry plans to also meet Prime Minister Arseniy P. Yatsenyuk and Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin.
On Friday in Brussels, Mr. Biden will be meeting with Donald Tusk, the president of the European Council, Federica Mogherini, the European Union’s foreign policy chief and other senior European leaders.
Mr. Kerry and Mr. Biden will then travel to Munich for a security conference and for a joint meeting with Ms. Merkel and Mr. Poroshenko. Mr. Kerry also plans to meet separately there with Sergey V. Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister.
“We do have three different issue areas in play,” a senior official in the Obama administration said on Wednesday, discussing Mr. Biden’s trip. “One is the potential to increase the costs to Russia through economic measures. The second is to make sure that Ukraine has the financial support it needs moving forward. And the third is to enhance Ukraine’s ability to defend itself and thereby give the Russians and the separatists a greater incentive to negotiate an end to the conflict.”
Russia's support for the separatists far outstrips the assistance the United States and European nations have provided to Ukraine.
The Russians have sent modern T-80 tanks, whose armor cannot be penetrated by Ukraine's aging and largely inoperative antitank weapons, along with Grad rockets and other heavy weapons. Russian forces have also used electronic jamming equipment to interfere with the Ukrainians’ communications.
In contrast, the Obama administration has promised about $118 million for training and nonlethal equipment for Ukraine’s Defense Ministry, State Border Guard Service and National Guard. But only half of that aid has actually been delivered, State Department officials acknowledge.
The United States is also preparing plans for $120 million in additional training and equipment.
Ukraine has requested arms and equipment, including ammunition, sniper rifles, mortars, grenade launchers, antitank missiles, armored personnel carriers, mobile field hospitals, counterbattery radars and reconnaissance drones.
The Russians have a history of advancing proposals in negotiations that contain enough hints of flexibility, along with their demands, to undermine the push for tougher sanctions in Europe.
The $16.4 million in aid that Mr. Kerry will announce in Kiev is intended to help people trapped by the fighting in Donetsk and Luhansk. The aid will be used to buy basic items like blankets and clothing, along with counseling for traumatized civilians and to help those who have fled the fighting.
The funds will support the work of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees and other international organizations. Including the $16.4 million, American humanitarian aid to Ukraine since the beginning of the crisis has totaled more than $38 million, the State Department said.