Tony Abbott 'determined to do better' after spill motion defeated – politics live
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Version 0 of 1. 5.14pm AEST06:14 Bonsoir blogans, bloganistas, all Well kids I reckon it’s time to call it an evening. Mr Bowers and I have been pounding the pavements and the keyboard since pre-dawn and we want to remain speaking English more or less coherently for the remainder of the week. Here’s the summary. There it was. See youse on the morrows. Updated at 5.59pm AEST 4.44pm AEST05:44 Political blogger Paula Matthewson is very good on The Drum today. Today’s vote has undoubtedly winged the PM. He may well be given a chance to recover, with the option of putting him out of his misery later if that is necessary. But now there is blood in the water, an off-the-radar battle is taking place between the right-wing conservatives who want to protect the government’s current agenda and the moderates who seek to change it. This battle is also the reason there’s no clear alternative to Abbott in the leadership stakes. The conservatives have been grooming former immigration minister Scott Morrison as their Plan B, in the event that Abbott fell under a bus. But without experience in an economic portfolio, Morrison is not yet ready for the top job. Meantime, communications minister Malcolm Turnbull has played the long-game, managing to keep moderate voters onside despite his spruiking of the Coalition’s technologically sub-optimal broadband network and keeping schtum on climate change. Deputy Liberal leader Julie Bishop has the potential to be a compromise candidate, with Liberal voters preferring her over Turnbull, but is not (yet) considered competent enough by the right, who still have the numbers. Accordingly, there will be no change to the Liberal leadership until the right accept the government is electorally doomed under Abbott, and that some policy purity will have to surrendered to maintain a fighting chance at the next election. While this subterranean battle escalates between the conservatives and the moderates in the Liberal party, the PM and his supporters will attempt to draw a line under recent events as nothing more than an ill-judged dummy-spit by a unrepresentative minority. However judging by the size of the anti-Abbott vote, and the PM’s track record in failing to live up to his word, the rebellion is far from over. 4.35pm AEST05:35 How can the light that burned so brightly / Suddenly burn so pale? Side eyes. (with apologies to Art Garfunkel) pic.twitter.com/zfsJRJsTmm Take a bow, Bernard Keane, of Crikey. There were many bizarre elements in the bunker broadcast in the wake of kill spill, but the glance the prime minister threw off camera at the end was perhaps most unnerving of all. 4.29pm AEST05:29 Slightly intimidated by the thread today folks – HUGE conversation down there – don’t know where to start. Did start, briefly. Good to have so many folks with us today. 4.15pm AEST05:15 Ah yes the GP copayment – did forget that sorry. Well, the copayment has gone in the course of today from off, to on, to being whatever the doctors will cop. 3.57pm AEST04:57 A quick stocktake after question time. Tell me if I missed something. 3.44pm AEST04:44 Tony and Malcolm went to question time, by Mike Bowers. Updated at 3.58pm AEST 3.40pm AEST04:40 Much Twitter chatter today about the prime minister’s chief of staff being absent from the adviser’s box. Not that exercised myself, but for the record – advisers box. No Credlin. Updated at 3.58pm AEST 3.32pm AEST04:32 There’s the vote now. It won’t succeed – the government has the numbers. That is one of the more fascinating 40 minutes that you’ll ever see in politics. Hand-to-hand combat. Messing with each other’s minds. Updated at 3.59pm AEST 3.29pm AEST04:29 Abbott, punching until the knuckles bleed: It wasn’t just the fiscal ineptitude, it was the utter administrative incompetence of members opposite. They spent $2.5bn putting pink batts into peoples’ roofs, that killed people and then they spent the money pulling them out. They spent more than $17bn on overpriced school halls. They promised to spend $43bn on a National Broadband Network that was going nowhere fast. Thanks to the stewardship of the member for Wentworth, the minister for communications, finally, the National Broadband Network is rolling out affordably, on budget and on a revised timetable. This is a government which is getting on with the job for which it was elected. The leader of the opposition says what about getting on with building the submarines? The leader of the opposition’s contribution to the submarine debate was to go out there and engage in cheap racist ranting against the people of Japan. Just like he engaged in cheap, xenophobic ranting against foreign workers with his ant 457 campaign when he was in government just a few years ago. 3.24pm AEST04:24 Abbott gets to his feet and hurls this. I will say this, we are not going to take lessons in unity from a leader of the opposition who backstabbed two prime ministers. We have heard members opposite talking a lot about a vote of 61-39. That is better than Bill Shorten got when he last went before his party room. Updated at 3.26pm AEST 3.22pm AEST04:22 The Labor leader goes for a sharp critique of the budget and the government’s values. What you have got is you have a nation of lifters being led by a government of leaners. That is the problem in this country. 3.20pm AEST04:20 Shorten, thanks the minister “for hedging his bets”. He continues. [Abbott] is superglued to that seat and you are going to have to blast him out. I admit our prime minister has a lot of energy. He runs around constantly biting his own tail but at least he knows how to fight for something member for Wentworth. Updated at 3.27pm AEST 3.17pm AEST04:17 Teensy bit of support for Turnbull from Pyne, who attempts to cut Shorten off at the pass. Pyne: The leader of the opposition appears to have taken the wrong speech from his office today. Perhaps they weren’t prepared for the outcome of this morning’s meeting. He clearly appears to be talking about the wrong member of the chamber and he should – you should draw him back to the motion which is about the prime minister. Updated at 3.28pm AEST 3.13pm AEST04:13 Shorten stands up immediately to stop Turnbull’s frolic. Ostensibly this is a move of no confidence in the prime minister, but the actual target here for Shorten is Malcolm Turnbull – the Liberal leader Labor absolutely does not want. Shorten: He won’t fight for the job, the member for Wentworth. He is prepared to injure his prime minister but he leaves his supporters hanging. This is not new in his political career. For two long excruciating decades, we were with the Hamlet of the Liberal party – to be Labor or to be Liberal, that is the question. Yes, in the end John Howard had a better chance of beating Kim Beazley so the ball of ambivalence chose the Liberals. (This is a message to the people sitting behind Turnbull.) Updated at 3.28pm AEST 3.07pm AEST04:07 Turnbull gestured that he was happy to take that question. Madam Speaker was not happy for him to take that question. Malcolm gets a Dorothy Dixer in any case. He can go to town on megabits. And Labor’s Jason Clare, as it turns out. Clare, interjecting: My point of order is relevance. The minister’s only being about 39% relevant and needs to be 100% relevant here. Turnbull, going to town. The [shadow] minister, like his leader, they get these zingers, they come in and it is like chewing tobacco and they roll it up against the top of their mouth, they roll it around their cheeks, the pupils dilate, there is a straining expression reminiscent to anyone who has had experience with young children, and then boom! Out it comes, a literary Exocet, aimed at the heart of your victim. How can I take the pressure from the shadow minister? He is almost as deadly as his master. Updated at 3.11pm AEST 3.00pm AEST04:00 The treasurer is speaking. Sadly, very few people seem to be listening. Shorten, to Malcolm Turnbull. Q: My question is to the minister for communications. Minister, why are you still on the frontbench? House speaker, Bronwyn Bishop. That question is not in order. I call the honourable member for Banks. Manager of opposition business Tony Burke. Under practice, a minister can be questioned on matters for which he or she is responsible or officially connected. If she not responsible for his own role on the frontbench, what is the point of question time at all? Updated at 3.11pm AEST 2.53pm AEST03:53 I agree it is time to get on with government. This is Abbott in response to a question about Queensland MP Teresa Gambaro’s critique in recent days about command and control. Bit wonky, this formulation. If it’s now time to get on with government, what has been happening for the last sixteen months? 2.49pm AEST03:49 The good news is Julie Bishop is still allowed Dorothy Dixers despite being a central protagonist in Tony Abbott’s leadership drama. The bad news is we have to sit through a new Colombo Plan for the eight thousandth time. Updated at 3.01pm AEST 2.45pm AEST03:45 Shorten. Q: Is the prime minister planning to abandon any of his budget measures or is he just planning to abandon his treasurer as he did at the press conference today? Abbott: I stand by my treasurer. I stand by my team. 2.43pm AEST03:43 Ok, here comes the hour of glower. Shorten lobs the question that Abbott once lobbed to Julia Gillard that we flagged earlier on Politics Live. Given the backbench belting, where is your mandate Tony? It’s the election, stupid. Abbott: I can understand why the leader of the opposition doesn’t want to remember the election. It would be something he would rather forget, but this prime minister and this government did win an election – and that is the mandate that we are carrying out. 2.37pm AEST03:37 The prime minister is now wading into Colleen McCullough. “Though plain of feature.” No, quite the opposite. Abbott as a teenager loved The Thorn Birds. A page-turner. I think Christopher Pyne might have just supressed the hiccups. Updated at 2.44pm AEST 2.34pm AEST03:34 That quip from Abbott was not at all churlish in context – conscious it might read that way in just one excerpt. Just saying. 2.30pm AEST03:30 Now the chamber is honouring Kep Enderby – former Labor politician, attorney general and judge. Abbott again: When Gough Whitlam, the prime minister, called [Enderby] to say he would be moved to a new portfolio as part of a reshuffle the next day, knowing he had only hours left in his treasured portfolio apparently the minister and his staff worked through the night, renaming 50 Canberra street names after left-wing poets, philosophers, revolutionary leaders from around the world. Luckily his time in the parliament was short. Updated at 2.49pm AEST 2.26pm AEST03:26 Labor’s Tanya Plibersek. Looking back later in his life, [Uren] said his great regret was not that those – when those who were weaker than him needed his protection and strength; his great regret was he felt pride at that opportunity rather than humility. Updated at 2.49pm AEST 2.18pm AEST03:18 Tom Uren was a father figure to Labor’s Anthony Albanese. Naturally, Albanese has an emotional tribute. Like so many other young men and women of that time, [Uren] enlisted, went to Timor, was captured. He served in Timor, Singapore, the Burma railway and Japan as a prisoner of war of the Japanese. Those people who read Richard Flanagan’s extraordinary book would read it as I did and I just wonder how these men came through that process without being bitter about the world and their place in it. He was an extraordinary man. If he can be characterised by anything, it is his faith in humanity and in his fellow man. He came through that process with a love and used to speak about ... unusually for a man ... speak about his love for people – and it was genuine. He received love in spades in return. He was someone who, in the noise of politics and conflict and petty squabbles that go on, he soared above the political landscape in this building and out there in the community. Updated at 2.50pm AEST 2.14pm AEST03:14 Labor leader Bill Shorten on Tom Uren: Tom was the keeper of Labor’s conscience in often trying times. He was a moral centre. Tom was a fearless foe and a loyal friend. For me, the last words belonged to Tom Uren, from the final page of his memoir Straight Left: “In my years of living, giving and serving our human family is the most rewarding achievement. When you walk down the street, the beauty of peoples’ eyes and faces gives you so many rewards.” Our condolences to his friends, family and his loved ones. May he rest in peace. Updated at 2.51pm AEST 2.10pm AEST03:10 Question time Rightio – let’s press onwards. The house is eulogising two departed Labor figures, Eric Fitzgibbon and Tom Uren. Abbott on Uren, (and I suspect, a little on himself): Tom Uren rejected hatred because, he said, hatred scars the soul. I first met Tom Uren at a Palm Sunday peace march in the mid-1980s. Once as a minister he was addressing an audience at Sydney University. He intervened to break up a fight between two students and the former boxer said “the only thing I fight for now is peace”. Tom Uren once reflected “I am a much gentler man than most people believe. There are two sides to me. I have got a gentle side and a harder side and as I have got older, I have got much gentler. This was his way of saying that he cared and felt for people but, nevertheless, he did always fight for principle. He was a warrior in this house but, above all else, in war and in peace, he was a warrior for a better Australia. Updated at 2.53pm AEST 2.05pm AEST03:05 Socialise the losses. Wonderful picture from Mike Bowers of a political leader having a very bad day at the office. Updated at 2.08pm AEST 1.57pm AEST02:57 They are the main points. Abbott wrapped that encounter after 14 minutes. The prime minister has had a big fright. A lot of rhetorical crow being eaten there. But the test is whether or not anything changes. 1.53pm AEST02:53 This is going to be a government which socialises decisions before they are finalised I missed his rather discordant phrase – just quickly back because we need it. Abbott: Fundamentally, this is going to be a government which socialises decisions before they are finalised. Later on this afternoon, I will be having a discussion with all of the backbench committee chairs, to take to them about the new approach which will be at least once every two months, a cabinet discussion with the backbench committee chairs at least every month – and there will be a discussion of the full ministry because I want to harness all the creativity, not just cabinet ministers’ creativity, not just public service creativity, I want to harness all of the creativity and insights that this part room has to offer. 1.50pm AEST02:50 Q: Do you have a secret deal with Shinzo Abe for Japan to supply the hull or major parts of the submarine, because people within industry are wondering whether this is why, rather than talking about open tender, you are now talking about a competitive evaluation process which is quite different? Abbott: Well, there are no secret deals. Obviously we want to get the best possible submarines at the best possible price. There will be an international partner. When the Collins-class subs were built there was an international partner there. We are talking, not just to the Japanese, although we certainly are talking to them, we are talking to the French, we are talking to the Germans, that’s what you would expect. Updated at 2.09pm AEST 1.47pm AEST02:47 Q: Do you retain competence in your senior ministers including the treasurer, Joe Hockey? Abbott ducks that question entirely. The point I make is that this has been a very chastening experience. 1.46pm AEST02:46 Peta will need to do better Q: Your chief of staff has obviously been a centre of controversy. Has she at any stage offered to resign in the cause of unity – and will she be staying on and will her role, if she is staying on, be changed? Look, all of us have had to have a good, long hard look at ourselves over the last few weeks. I mean, obviously, yes, it’s been a difficult time for our country, but it’s been a particularly difficult time for the government, particularly with the, I suppose, nightmarish result that the LNP got in Queensland, so we have all had a good, long, hard look at ourselves – and all of us are resolved to be different and better in the future than we have been in the past and that’s true at every level. Me, my cabinet colleagues, my ministerial colleagues, my senior staff, we are all resolved to be and do better. Updated at 2.10pm AEST 1.44pm AEST02:44 My door is open, my phone is there, I answer my phone, I listen to my messages Q: Have you spoken to Malcolm Turnbull? I haven’t had a lengthy discussion with any of my colleagues since the vote, because, as you know, it’s been a very busy day in and around this building already. The point that I make to you and which I have been making to all of my colleagues over the last few weeks is that my door is open, my phone is there, I answer my phone, I listen to my messages, and I certainly want to build on the kind of dialogue that I have been having with my colleagues over recent weeks. 1.43pm AEST02:43 I am determined to do better in these tests in the next few months What’s going to change? Abbott: Every day is a test for the government. And the prime minister and I accept that every day I’m being tested. That’s the way it is. I am determined to do better in these tests in the next few months than I have in the last couple of months, but I’m also very confident that this is a party room which believes in the marrow of its bones that we are a government that has good answers for the people of Australia. 1.41pm AEST02:41 I have listened, I have learnt, and I have changed and the government will change with me First question is on the GP copayment. Abbott says it is important that the government maintain the support of the medical profession. It was a bold and ambitious budget last year. With the wisdom of hindsight it was perhaps too bold and too ambitious. We did, with the wisdom of hindsight, bite off more than we could chew, but I have listened, I have learnt, and I have changed and the government will change with me. We will not buy fights with the Senate that we can’t win, unless we are absolutely determined that they are the fights that we really, really do need to have. 1.38pm AEST02:38 Tony Abbott addresses the media The prime minister minister thinks this has been a difficult time. Tony Abbott: Obviously I accept that the last few weeks have been difficult weeks for the government. But there have also been difficult weeks for the Australian people, because the people expect and deserve a government which is getting on with the job. I am confident that have we have put this time behind us and I am confident that as of today, we are back at work for the people of Australia. I am confident that what we have shown the Australian people is that we have looked over the precipice and we have decided we are not going to go down the Labor party path of a damaged, misguided and dysfunctional government. Updated at 2.20pm AEST 1.24pm AEST02:24 By 1990, no child shall live without a submarine. PM needs to end the uncertainty for GPs & patients over #copayment II by taking the proposed rebate cut & indexation off the table #auspol Sorry, that was a bit random, that reference. The Australian Medical Association is making it very clear that it wants the government to dump its budget policies and start over again. Why not? The prime minister is clearly open for business right now. Weak leadership. Get your bids in, folks. Particularly when there’s a big push on internally to dump the copayment. Updated at 1.43pm AEST 1.15pm AEST02:15 The prime minister has relocated his broadcast position from the bunker to the courtyard. Journalists have been invited to join him there at 1.30pm. That’s the perfect window – can’t have too many questions because question time beckons. Funny, I’ve been in that courtyard every year since 1996. Seen a lot of press conferences there. But for me, it will now always be the courtyard where Kevin Rudd cried in 2010. 12.57pm AEST01:57 More Bowers genius. We’ve been chuckling periodically in our office this morning about the drive-by the Labor leadership team earlier this morning. You remember? Bill Shorten, Tanya Plibersek, Penny Wong and Stephen Conroy sauntered past the spill debate with their coffees. A few in this crowd have some king-making experience. We couldn’t resist a re-enactment. Sharp eyes will notice two people are making their debut here: Brick Bill and Brick Tanya. For clarity Brick Bill is the man without a face. Brick Tanya is the lady with the plaits. Updated at 1.01pm AEST 12.43pm AEST01:43 @murpharoo Katharine I thought u might be interested I this. #libspill #auspoI pic.twitter.com/5pzQWYm4f2 Thank you, I am, of course interested in this reminder. Abbott asking Julia Gillard how she could continue as prime minister when one third of the colleagues had no confidence in her; Gillard giving Abbott full marks for audacity. Question time. Stay tuned. 12.34pm AEST01:34 An alternate broadcast from an imaginary bunker. With wine. Thanks to Huw Parkinson. 12.28pm AEST01:28 Here’s the bunker broadcast. Shocker, in my opinion. But you might have a different view? I will try to get to the thread after question time. 12.26pm AEST01:26 Nice column on the New Daily post kill spill from former Rudd and Gillard adviser Sean Kelly. Malcolm Turnbull, the man who would be king, now faces an excruciating choice. He wants to be prime minister – has done for decades. Right now there is momentum going his way. It must be devilishly tempting to ride it to power. If he waits too long there is also a chance that another contender, perhaps more palatable to the right of his party, emerges. Now that Abbott is obviously weak, Julie Bishop or Scott Morrison might be persuaded to run. But Turnbull knows too that forcing matters may cost him votes, reminding his colleagues of the impulsive Malcolm of old. It’s not a clear-cut choice. I think this analysis is broadly right – the run against Abbott today needs to be viewed in the context that there are unhappy people around who could not, if push came to shove, bring themselves to vote for Malcolm Turnbull because he’s too progressive. They might shift for Julie Bishop or Scott Morrison. But those candidates have “shortcomings” too. Nothing simple. Nothing clear-cut. Updated at 12.52pm AEST 12.16pm AEST01:16 Memo 164 to the person I inisist on treating like my office boy. Abbott survives 61-39. Now needs to say he understands complaints and will govern more inclusively, both with public and his party. 12.11pm AEST01:11 The revolt fizzed and the prime minister survived. The wonderful Fiona Katauskas sketches out the Liberal party’s morning of drama in this gallery. Take a look. Updated at 12.15pm AEST 12.00pm AEST01:00 Some quick outtakes from commentators who are touchstones for Team Abbott. Dennis Shanahan, the Australian: Tony Abbott has bought some time but that’s all. While the leadership spill motion was defeated by 61 to 39 votes the size of the support for the motion is an almost fatal blow for the prime minister. It is also an almost fatal blow for the Liberal party. Andrew Bolt, Herald Sun: Tony Abbott survives the spill motion: 61 to 39. He won more votes than he feared but fewer than he’d like. All that damage caused by Malcolm Turnbull and others – for this? You would assume Abbott has been given a last chance of some months. Updated at 12.11pm AEST 11.43am AEST00:43 The components of the morning Pictures, telling stories. I know it’s not lunchtime yet but there’s a moment here which I’ll take to post a summary. Because who knows when the next moment comes? The morning thus far, in two points: Updated at 11.54am AEST 11.24am AEST00:24 Give me six months. 11.21am AEST00:21 The debate has been adjourned. I can now note very gently that there is no show without Punch. Stability in Europe now hangs on Minsk Summit this Wed between Germany, France, Russia & Ukraine. Thank God Merkel and Hollande are trying. 11.19am AEST00:19 Shorten ends thus. Let us resolve to honour the memory of those lost to us on that December morning and those who survived by vowing not to change. Let us promise each other to always be a happy and confident people, a nation rejecting fear, rejecting fear, embracing diversity. A nation whose first instinct will always be optimism and compassion. Never suspicion nor prejudice. An Australia that is stronger because it stands together, united not defeated, today, tomorrow and always. 11.18am AEST00:18 Shorten notes the community response. These people were the victims of a deranged act of violence aimed at dividing our country. And it failed. It failed because Australians will never lose their faith in a peaceful, multicultural democracy. Australians will never surrender to hatred, to fear, to intolerance. We will never reward the perpetrators of evil by abandoning our common humanity. On that Monday evening, as night descended upon Martin Place, hundreds of thousands of Australians took to social media to do something quite extraordinary. Instead of venting messages of hate or succumbing to fear, under the hashtag #illridewithou, more than 150,000 people made a stand against prejudice. They rallied around the diversity which is at the core of our remarkable modern Australia. And the next morning when the siege had ended, Sydneysiders emerged to Martin Place bearing flowers, not hatred. Updated at 12.14pm AEST 11.16am AEST00:16 The Labor leader Bill Shorten’s turn now. All we can offer (survivors and the families of the victims) is Australia’s embrace. A promise to honour forever the memory of those lost to you and to all of us. We will work with you, the government, because the security of our nation and safety of our people is above politics. When it comes to fighting terrorism, we are indeed in this together. What we do know without question is that this was a crime deliberately aimed at the innocent. Everyday Australians were the target of terror. 11.13am AEST00:13 The prime minister uses a chunk of the speech to amplify “Australian values”. There is a segue to Gallipoli, and he rounds out thus. In April, some in this chamber will travel to Gallipoli to pay tribute to the courage and resourcefulness and determination and sacrifice of our forebears a century ago. But today, we need not look so far or travel so far to see resilience, courage and decency. We look to the gallery and we see modern Australia. Greater love hath no man or woman than to lie down their life for their friend. We salute Tori Johnson and Katrina Dawson. We salute everyone touched by the siege, touched by this atrocity and I commend the motion to the house. Updated at 12.16pm AEST 11.08am AEST00:08 Abbott, in continuation. The best response to evil is good. The best response to terrorism is to live normal lives, because that shows that we might be threatened, but we will not be changed. The Martin Place siege, I regret to say, was inspired by a death cult. That death cult now rampant in much of Syria and Iraq, which is a travesty of religion and governance and which should never be dignified with the term Islamic State. The Martin Place siege was the act of terror that we hoped would never occur in this country. I want to assure the men and women in the gallery, I want to assure all Australians, that this government, as well as our state counterparts, are determined to learn from what happened at the Lindt cafe on that dreadful day. Updated at 11.12am AEST 11.06am AEST00:06 Statements to parliament on the Sydney siege Back to the other business of the day. The prime minister is addressing the chamber about the tragic events in Martin Place. Families of the victims are looking on from the galleries. Abbott: Madam Speaker, 15 December last year was a testing day for our country. It was a testing day for the police and for the security and emergency services. It was a testing day for the people of Sydney, witnessing an atrocity unfold in a cafe known to many Sydneysiders in the utterly familiar surrounds of Martin Place. Above all, it was a testing day for the men and the women held in the Lindt cafe and for their families. So Madam Speaker, today, we welcome to the chamber the men and women held in the Lindt cafe as well as the families of Tori Johnson and Katrina Dawson. The thoughts and the prayers of 24 million Australians and many millions more around the world were with you on that terrible day. And I want to assure you, we are still with you. We are still with you as you come to terms with that horrific experience. Every day must be a struggle for the Johnson and the Dawson families. We grieve with you, and we hope that you draw strength and comfort from the support of the people of our country. Updated at 11.29am AEST 11.02am AEST00:02 Abbott has told colleagues: give me six months No, I won’t sorry. My colleague Lenore Taylor has some intel I need to share quickly. Her calls indicate the prime minister has described these past few days as a near-death experience. According to her accounts – he’s put a precise timeframe on his leadership – he’s asked colleagues to give him six months to turn the ship around. Updated at 11.13am AEST 10.58am AEST23:58 Let’s take a break from the absurdities and brain pops for a bit. I’ll take us to the house shortly for the statements on the Martin Place siege. Updated at 11.13am AEST 10.37am AEST23:37 Luke Simpkins has engaged journalists in the corridor after his news-bending performance on Sky News. I think this has been a good wake-up call. The prime minister has taken on board what our concerns have been and we look forward to that being implemented. Revolt leader Luke Simpkins talks to the media after the party room meeting #politicslive @murpharoo @GuardianAus pic.twitter.com/piL2omXtg8 Updated at 10.54am AEST 10.34am AEST23:34 Things that make you go hmmmmm. Updated at 10.55am AEST 10.28am AEST23:28 The Liberal backbencher who cooked up the spill motion, Luke Simpkins, has just announced on Sky News that the government has dumped the GP copayment. That’s pretty big news, if true. A bit like the other backbencher who yesterday announced the competitive tender for the submarine purchase. Someone from the PMO must have texted the Sky hosts on air. The GP copayment has NOT been dumped. Mischief? Silliness? Speers to Simpkins: Q: So the PM said he’d just consult more? Simpkins: Yes, yes, that’s true. (End to chaos. Adults back in charge. Moving forward.) Updated at 10.55am AEST 10.19am AEST23:19 The broadcast from the bunker is underway now. Here it is, Tony Abbott, hunkered down in his office, broadcasting live. I know he’s doing this because the TV networks would have been howling for updated vision. But this is the true definition of shark-jumping really. As is the inference here that the party room doesn’t matter again. This would be the party room who just took out a chunk of his flesh. Tony Abbott: The Liberal party has dealt with the spill motion and now this matter is behind us. We are absolutely determined to work for you the people who elected us. We want to end the disunity and the uncertainty which destroyed two Labor governments and give you the good government that you deserve. We think that when you elect a government, when you elect a prime minister, you deserve to keep that government and that prime minister until you have a chance to change your mind. So the focus now is once more on jobs, families, a stronger economy and a secure nation. We do face many challenges. At heart, we are a highly successful country, justifiably proud of what we’ve achieved. In essence, we are a strong economy with so much creativity and dynamism and the challenge for government is to work with you, not against you. I love this country. I will do my best to help our country to succeed. Updated at 11.04am AEST 10.11am AEST23:11 Ah, no. The prime minister’s statement to the house is on the Martin Place siege. There is a broadcast from the bunker, then a press conference. On current indications. All things liable to change without notice. Updated at 11.05am AEST 10.07am AEST23:07 What the .. well .. Extraodinary really. Word emerged a few minutes ago that Tony Abbott would make a statement to the media from his office. One television camera. No questions. Broadcast from the bunker. Are they kidding? This has now become a statement to parliament, apparently. 9.57am AEST22:57 Father of the House, Phillip Ruddock. 9.56am AEST22:56 My colleague Lenore Taylor has just given me a quick read out on Abbott’s message to the party room. The pep talk went like this: Julie Bishop told her colleagues: don’t let things fester. She said her door was always open. Updated at 10.11am AEST 9.46am AEST22:46 There are things Tony Abbott can do right now to improve the situation for himself. He can be himself, for a start. He could move to strengthen the ministry. But everything he does now is from a position of weakness. He’s lost the opportunity to take the initiative. 9.44am AEST22:44 From my colleague, Lenore Taylor. Thirty-nine of his colleagues have effectively voted no confidence in Tony Abbott’s leadership. He resorted to making apparent promises about major defence acquisitions to win votes in a party room ballot. His rallying call was not the confident cry, “I’m the man to lead us to glory at the next election”, but just the plaintive, “Please could you give me a bit more time?” Can Abbott’s win in the party room on Monday really be seen as a decisive victory, an endorsement, an end to the spectacle of a Liberal leader coming apart not due to the bastardry of colleagues but due to his own mismanagement of his party and his policy agenda? He lost 39 votes when no one was standing against him. 9.41am AEST22:41 Turnbull walked by the waiting pack with one comment. Great to see you all. 9.39am AEST22:39 Tony Abbott has addressed the party room. The meeting has now broken, MPs are heading out now to pretend things are absolutely fine while forming small huddles to work out the road ahead. Updated at 9.55am AEST 9.31am AEST22:31 Very cheeky. The Labor leadership team just strolled by their waiting press pack with the coffees, looking relaxed and genial. They have much experience in these matters of course. Updated at 9.32am AEST 9.29am AEST22:29 So, Malcolm – what’s it to be? Updated at 9.58am AEST 9.25am AEST22:25 The result today creates perfect conditions for a more structured move against the prime minister if the protagonists decide to play it that way. Sliding doors moment here again for the Liberal party. 9.20am AEST22:20 The government whip Philip Ruddock says there was one informal vote. A run against the prime minister with no declared alternative candidate. Total shocker. Updated at 9.27am AEST 9.18am AEST22:18 Tony Abbott survives, with a significant vote of no confidence The spill motion has been defeated – 61 to 39. 9.13am AEST22:13 Be funny if it was a secret ballot with show and tell. No, it wouldn’t, actually. 9.07am AEST22:07 We need to get our laughs where we can. I’m no body language expert but something is going on here: #libspill pic.twitter.com/mbH9UlrMiz 9.00am AEST22:00 Huge show of strength for Abbott, arriving now, flanked by Julie Bishop. The empty corridor is suddenly crowded with MPs. Updated at 10.15am AEST 8.55am AEST21:55 Malcolm Turnbull is walking the corridor alone. He looks relaxed. He won’t really be relaxed. I reckon the rowing machine got a thrashing this morning. 8.52am AEST21:52 Interesting to see Scott Morrison walking into the party room with Arthur Sinodinos. Updated at 8.58am AEST 8.44am AEST21:44 Who said numbers are not an exact science? Christopher Pyne: a professional number cruncher, who tells the truth It’s actually quite dangerous to report speculation about numbers right now. No one has an interest in telling you the truth. Everyone has an interest in creating the illusion of momentum. It’s a great last lunge for the line – nothing more, nothing less. It’s a secret ballot. Colleagues will lie to each other as well as to journalists. It’s not even a head-to-head contest. That tends to make genuine counting quite difficult. Updated at 8.59am AEST 8.38am AEST21:38 Depending on which speculation you currently favour – the numbers are incredibly tight or not that tight. Meanwhile Brick Malcolm is polishing his top hat. Updated at 8.47am AEST 8.23am AEST21:23 The service has ended. Organ music is wafting out the door of the church in Kingston. The prime minister drops his talking points on the steps on the way out. Tony Abbott would like to get on with the task of being the government we were elected to be. Julie Bishop has walked to her car, saying nothing. Updated at 9.09am AEST 8.11am AEST21:11 Are you there God? It’s me, Barnaby. (Cheer up Kevin.) Updated at 8.21am AEST 8.07am AEST21:07 I’m relying on snippets from folks down at the church this morning telling me that Abbott has read Mark 12:28-34. When Jesus saw that he had answered wisely, he said to him, “You are not far from the kingdom of God.” And from then on no one dared ask him any more questions. (Seems reasonable.) The opposition leader Bill Shorten apparently read Matthew 25:34-40 And the King will answer them, ‘Truly, I say to you, as you did it to one of the least of these my brothers, you did it to me.’ (Thanks to my colleague Shalailah Medhora for her bible studies.) 8.02am AEST21:02 Apologies I should have adjusted our magic numbers. 101 MPs will attend today’s meeting. The magic number required for spill success is 51. 7.55am AEST20:55 Scenes from a church. Updated at 8.07am AEST 7.54am AEST20:54 Unicorn? Moi? Updated at 8.08am AEST 7.43am AEST20:43 As always, Mark Textor, strategist and Liberal party pollster is a good read in the Australian Financial Review for subscribers. He’s not picking winners, he’s sharing trends – examining the underlying causes behind volatility, explaining why there is a premium on stability and leadership. Here’s an excerpt. Since 2007, voters have been through the roller-coaster of their lives; seemingly constant leadership changes in federal and state politics, the GFC, massive structural changes in the economy with the loss of manufacturing jobs in the south and a fall in the fortunes of the resources industry in the north-east and west, shocking terror events and other social upheavals. Many want off the roller-coaster, if only for a time. Or, faced with the prospect of further forced rides in the future, they require more friendly, steadying partners to ride with them during and after. No more surprises is the key here. Honesty about where the loops, the twists and the drops will appear, and clarity on the length of each ride, is key. The alternative is a constantly bewildered electorate. Mystery ride after mystery ride. Updated at 8.09am AEST 7.33am AEST20:33 Christopher Pyne keeps his cards tight to the chest The government’s fortunes are always in my prayers. (That was Christopher Pyne, on his way to church.) Pyne very carefully avoided any comment on who is best to be leader, and what should happen next. Peak arch. In the wonderful imagination of Mike Bowers, Pyne is a unicorn – a magical creature who flies above the fray. Here he is, chatting to government whip, Philip Ruddock. Updated at 8.11am AEST 7.27am AEST20:27 Andrew Laming is now everywhere, simultaneously, confirming his support for the spill motion. He thinks internal processes and attitudes won’t change. I think we are in a very difficult position. Immigration minister Peter Dutton says Tony Abbott just needs clear air. The prime minister is just arriving at church. He’s ignored the press pack and walked straight into the service. Updated at 8.11am AEST 7.20am AEST20:20 Both Sky News and news.com have confirmed that today’s vote will be of 101 MPs, not 102 MPs. Ross Vasta is on personal leave. Mike Bowers, meanwhile, has gone to church. That’s what happens at the opening of parliament. MPs gather and pray. Bowers is probably too busy filing to pray. Updated at 8.12am AEST 7.16am AEST20:16 Queensland MP Andrew Laming has been boundary riding for several days on the spill. Lib MP Andrew Laming says he will support the motion to spill the leadership #libspill #auspol Fellow Queenslander Wyatt Roy confirmed a similar intention when he arrived at Canberra airport last night. Camp Abbott is throwing around “ambush” this morning – this is an ambush against the prime minister that has been building since last December. Ambush is in the eye of the beholder of course, but it is certainly true that dissident backbenchers have been active since just before Christmas. The discontent was detectable in the last sitting weeks of last year. But these bursts of unhappiness can prove transient things. Not in this case. However this ends this morning, the government is in a divided head about how to proceed – and those divisions will not fade away quietly. 7.07am AEST20:07 Heeere’s Malcolm. Updated at 8.13am AEST 7.04am AEST20:04 For those of us inclined to catastrophising, Dennis Shanahan in the Australian this morning reasons that prime ministers aren’t meant to be loved. It looks bad. A prime minister in deep political trouble, beset by woeful polling, budget problems and internal dissent. Yet as Tony Abbott faces a crucial test of his leadership this morning, he should take heart; other prime ministers have been in similar — or even worse — positions, held on to the leadership and won subsequent elections. It remains a long way back for the prime minister but historical parallels suggest he can still survive and prosper. Updated at 8.13am AEST 6.54am AEST19:54 Ouch, for different reasons. Damn those news archives. Peak BullTurn. Vintage Malcolm. “@workmanalice: #itson #libspill pic.twitter.com/cvlGXXZnPV” 6.48am AEST19:48 Ouch is the technical term. Voter satisfaction/dissatisfaction rating according to newspoll @TheTodayShow pic.twitter.com/B5N9BzeuZ5 6.46am AEST19:46 The man who is not yet officially a challenger, Malcolm Turnbull, has just arrived at parliament house. This nuts and bolts piece from my colleagues Daniel Hurst and Lenore Taylor is very helpful as we hurtle towards 9am. Here are some excerpts from that, including the essential fact: the magic number for the spill motion to succeed is 52 votes. Camp Abbott is professing confidence about the numbers, although the prime minister acknowledged on the ABC news last night that he might not prevail. We wait, we see. The process this morning: Updated at 8.16am AEST 6.31am AEST19:31 Good morning and welcome to our live coverage of yet another extraordinary day in Australian politics. Tony Abbott will face a party room debate on a motion to spill the leadership of the Liberal party at 9am this morning. As is our habit, Mike Bowers has pictured the scene going on downstairs. In our brick parliament, here is the prime minister’s chief of staff, Peta Credlin, giving final instructions to the candidate. “Be gracious. Be humble. Be the winner.” The spill motion will be voted on without delay. We don’t anticipate speeches. The vote will be a secret ballot, which will enable frontbenchers to exercise a conscience vote even though there has been an enormous effort to bind them behind the current leadership team. How long the process goes from there depends whether or not the spill is a success. Government MPs go into this morning’s spill vote consuming an absolute shocker of a Newspoll. As the Australian’s Phillip Hudson reports, the two-party preferred figure is Coalition 43% and Labor 57% – the worst result since 2009. Abbott’s satisfaction figures are solidly in the avert-eyes territory. The poll indicates voters would prefer Malcolm Turnbull or Julie Bishop as prime minister. (As is often the case in polls, Turnbull is less popular with folks who identify as Coalition voters.) That noted, Turnbull leads as preferred leader over Abbott 64% to 25%. Bishop’s lead was 59% to 27%. That might focus the odd mind. But this is politics. Evidence doesn’t always come into the equation. Speaking of evidence, I will try very hard to follow my usual form on this blog: I’ll try and avoid speculation and report what I know when I know it. I’ll respect you enough to think you can wait a few minutes rather than me being first to get it wrong. The Politics Live comment thread is wide open for your business. Bowers and I can also be reached on the Twits @murpharoo @mpbowers Updated at 8.19am AEST |