New Rules Set on Armed Drone Exports

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/18/world/new-rules-set-on-armed-drone-exports.html

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WASHINGTON — The Obama administration on Tuesday issued new rules for the international export of armed drones, a move that seeks to preserve an American lead in a fast-growing market but one likely to speed the proliferation of a much-criticized weapon in the battle against terrorism.

The rules will make it easier to provide missile-armed Predator and Reaper drones to American allies facing off against militant groups, including the Islamic State and its offshoots, aviation experts said. The long-awaited policy shift will reduce the chance that friendly countries will turn for drones to Israel or China, which also manufacture unmanned military aircraft for export.

The State Department said the new policy set strict standards for the sale of armed drones, including “end-use assurances” from the recipient countries that set out how they can be used. For drones capable of carrying large weapons, there will be a “strong presumption of denial” of an export license. But exceptions will be allowed on “rare occasions,” the department said, citing language that also governs other weapons exports.

The export rules will not permit buyers to use American drones “to conduct unlawful surveillance or use unlawful force against their domestic populations,” the State Department said.

The new policy is a recognition that unmanned aircraft are increasingly viewed around the globe as an indispensable weapon for counterterrorism and warfare. To date, experts said, the United States has sold armed drones only to Britain, though several NATO countries have bought unarmed models.

Italy has sought approval to add missiles to its American-made drones, and Turkey has also sought to buy armed American unmanned craft.

Human rights groups have expressed grave concern about drone proliferation because they say the ability to strike without risking a pilot’s life lowers the threshold for starting an armed conflict. In addition, though drones have a far greater capability to distinguish between civilians and combatants than fighter jets or cruise missiles, American drones in Pakistan and Yemen have killed hundreds of civilians.

Peter W. Singer, an expert on robotic weaponry at the New America Foundation, said the new rules filled a policy vacuum that had lasted for years.

“The reality is that the technology is here to stay, and it’s globally proliferating,” he said. “So to have a policy is a good thing.”

But he said that, as with other arms exports, American-made armed drones that are exported are likely to be used for dubious or regrettable purposes.

“Whether it’s an F-16, an armed drone or a billy club, once you sell it to another country, you lose control over how it’s used,” Mr. Singer said.

Eric R. McClafferty, a lawyer at Kelley Drye & Warren who specializes in export controls, said there had been intense pressure from American industry to permit the export of both military and nonmilitary drones. That is in part because unmanned aircraft are viewed as a growth area by defense manufacturers.

“You have tons of allies who really want these UAVs,” he said, referring to unmanned aerial vehicles.

Mr. McClafferty suggested that the Obama administration was now addressing the proliferation of all kinds of drones, from the tiny models popular with hobbyists and photographers to the military models. On Sunday, the Federal Aviation Administration issued new rules governing the commercial use of small drones inside the United States.

Philip Finnegan, director of corporate analysis at the Teal Group, which tracks the aviation industry, said there was currently a global market for unmanned aircraft of about $6 billion a year. Only a tiny fraction of that is for armed drones, he said, but the share is growing fast.

While the United States, Israel and China dominate the field, South Africa is now making armed drones, and Turkey and several other countries are in the early stages of developing military models, Mr. Finnegan said. Russia has lagged so far, he said.

While the first unmanned aircraft date almost to the origins of aviation, the Predator drone was armed with missiles after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks with the goal of killing Osama bin Laden and other terrorists. The weapon has been seen as particularly well-adapted for use in counterterrorism, because it can kill a small number of people with precision when all goes well.

Since 2001, the United States has used drones for surveillance and strikes in Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan, Somalia and Yemen, and both military and C.I.A. officials have praised their capabilities.

But strikes can be only as precise as the intelligence that guides them, and in numerous cases, missiles fired from drones have hit the wrong people or killed and injured nearby civilians. The result has been a potent political backlash, particularly in Pakistan and Yemen, which Al Qaeda and other militants have used as a recruiting gambit.