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Blair faces Iraq debate showdown Blair faces Iraq debate showdown
(40 minutes later)
Tony Blair faces a battle to avoid a defeat as MPs from all parties join forces to demand an inquiry into Iraq. Downing Street has warned of "very real consequences" for British troops in Iraq if MPs defeat the government over calls for an inquiry into the war.
The Commons will debate a Scottish National Party and Plaid Cymru call for a probe into the war and aftermath, backed by Lib Dems and Labour rebels.The Commons will debate a Scottish National Party and Plaid Cymru call for a probe into the war and aftermath, backed by Lib Dems and Labour rebels.
The Tories, who supported the war, say they will join them if ministers do not agree to a wide-ranging inquiry to be held once British troops come home. The Tories say they may back the motion if ministers do not agree to hold a broader inquiry once troops leave.
The government says it will not hold an inquiry while troops are in Iraq. No 10 says an inquiry now would be seen by the enemy as a sign of weakness.
Prime Minister Tony Blair's spokesman has said it was important not to give the enemy any sign of weakness. Mr Blair's official spokesman hinted that the government would agree to an inquiry once troops have left Iraq.
He said: "Of course we continue to learn the lessons all the time and there is no doubt that at the end of our period there people will want to look back.
"The time to deal with that is then, not now. This is not a theoretical debate. It is a very real debate with very real consequences for our soldiers on the ground."
Review callReview call
The debate, due to start at 1540 GMT, is the first full Commons debate on Iraq since July 2004.The debate, due to start at 1540 GMT, is the first full Commons debate on Iraq since July 2004.
The SNP and Plaid are using their "Opposition Day" to table a motion calling for a committee of seven senior MPs to review "the way in which the responsibilities of government were discharged in relation to Iraq" from the build-up to the March 2003 invasion and its aftermath.The SNP and Plaid are using their "Opposition Day" to table a motion calling for a committee of seven senior MPs to review "the way in which the responsibilities of government were discharged in relation to Iraq" from the build-up to the March 2003 invasion and its aftermath.
The wording matches an Early Day Motion of November 2005, which was signed by more than 160 MPs of all parties, including 32 Labour MPs.The wording matches an Early Day Motion of November 2005, which was signed by more than 160 MPs of all parties, including 32 Labour MPs.
It is essential ... that we establish what combination of deception, delusion and ineptitude carried us down this fateful path Adam Price Plaid CymruIt is essential ... that we establish what combination of deception, delusion and ineptitude carried us down this fateful path Adam Price Plaid Cymru
If that many Labour MPs rebel in the vote, due at 1840 GMT, and all non-Labour MPs vote for the motion, the government would be defeated.If that many Labour MPs rebel in the vote, due at 1840 GMT, and all non-Labour MPs vote for the motion, the government would be defeated.
It is unclear, and difficult to predict, how, or whether, MPs will vote on the issue, but a defeat would be embarrassing for Mr Blair.It is unclear, and difficult to predict, how, or whether, MPs will vote on the issue, but a defeat would be embarrassing for Mr Blair.
If MPs back the motion an inquiry would go ahead unless ministers seek to overturn it at a later date. One way of doing so would be by calling a confidence vote. If MPs back the motion an inquiry would go ahead unless ministers overturn it at a later date. One way of doing so would be by calling a confidence vote.
Plaid's defence spokesman Adam Price said it was essential to "establish what combination of deception, delusion and ineptitude carried us down this fateful path".Plaid's defence spokesman Adam Price said it was essential to "establish what combination of deception, delusion and ineptitude carried us down this fateful path".
SNP leader Alex Salmond said: "Even if the government wins it by a narrow margin - which I think is the reality - then [Tony Blair] would be in a Neville Chamberlain situation where you win the battle but lose the war."
The Conservatives favour an investigation, similar to the Franks inquiry carried out after the Falklands war, involving former generals and civil servants rather than just MPs.The Conservatives favour an investigation, similar to the Franks inquiry carried out after the Falklands war, involving former generals and civil servants rather than just MPs.
They say they have met the government's concerns, by requesting an inquiry which starts next year, when ministers have said Iraqi security forces should be able to take over most responsibilities from British troops.
'Hearts and minds''Hearts and minds'
They say they have met the government's concerns, by requesting an inquiry which starts next year, when ministers have said Iraqi security forces should be able to take over most responsibilities from British troops.
Shadow foreign secretary William Hague said if such an inquiry was announced, the Conservatives would abstain from voting on Tuesday.Shadow foreign secretary William Hague said if such an inquiry was announced, the Conservatives would abstain from voting on Tuesday.
But if not, they would put the government "under increased pressure" to do so, by voting with the SNP and Plaid.But if not, they would put the government "under increased pressure" to do so, by voting with the SNP and Plaid.
"Most of us supported the invasion of Iraq and many of us still consider it was the right thing to do... but this is a separate issue," he told the BBC.
Whatever one's view about the rights and wrongs of the invasion of Iraq, it's very important to learn about what's happened since then William HagueWhatever one's view about the rights and wrongs of the invasion of Iraq, it's very important to learn about what's happened since then William Hague
"Most of us supported the invasion of Iraq and many of us still consider it was the right thing to do... but this is a separate issue," he told the BBC.
He said it was important to look at the aftermath, from the successful elections, to the failure to reconstruct Iraq's economy or win the "hearts and minds" of its people.He said it was important to look at the aftermath, from the successful elections, to the failure to reconstruct Iraq's economy or win the "hearts and minds" of its people.
"Whatever one's view about the rights and wrongs of the invasion of Iraq, it's very important to learn about what's happened since then," he said."Whatever one's view about the rights and wrongs of the invasion of Iraq, it's very important to learn about what's happened since then," he said.
'Ludicrous''Ludicrous'
But Labour member of the foreign affairs select committee, Gisela Stuart, said there had already been sufficient investigations - with the Hutton and Butler inquiries.But Labour member of the foreign affairs select committee, Gisela Stuart, said there had already been sufficient investigations - with the Hutton and Butler inquiries.
"We have a continuous questioning process within Parliament whether it's in Defence questions, Foreign Affairs questions ... we have debates," she said."We have a continuous questioning process within Parliament whether it's in Defence questions, Foreign Affairs questions ... we have debates," she said.
"To say we need an extra inquiry, I just can't work out, other than really opportunistic reasons to beat the government.""To say we need an extra inquiry, I just can't work out, other than really opportunistic reasons to beat the government."
HAVE YOUR SAY Instead of being retrospective why not look into what can be done to help Iraq now? Qwerty, UK Send us your commentsHAVE YOUR SAY Instead of being retrospective why not look into what can be done to help Iraq now? Qwerty, UK Send us your comments
Former Cabinet minister Ken Clarke, a Conservative MP who rebelled against his party's support for the war in 2003, told the BBC it was "faintly absurd" to say that his party's calls for an inquiry were "incompatible" with their support for the war. Former Cabinet minister Ken Clarke, a Conservative MP who rebelled against his party's support for the war in 2003, told the BBC it was "absurd" to say that his party's calls for an inquiry were "incompatible" with their support for the war.
SNP leader Alex Salmond said: "Even if the government wins it by a narrow margin - which I think is the reality - then [Tony Blair] would be in a Neville Chamberlain situation where you win the battle but lose the war." Liberal Democrat foreign spokesman Michael Moore, said it was "entirely legitimate" to ask questions of ministers, without undermining troops' morale.
And Liberal Democrat foreign spokesman Michael Moore said it was "unacceptable" that no debate had been held on Iraq for more than two years. "We want to know that the government actually have a proper plan for Iraq that's got milestones, that's got benchmarks, that actually recognises we cannot be there indefinitely," he said.
Earlier this month Mr Blair defended the decision to invade Iraq and said it would be a "betrayal" of British forces' sacrifices since 2003, and of Iraq, if troops pulled out of the country too soon.Earlier this month Mr Blair defended the decision to invade Iraq and said it would be a "betrayal" of British forces' sacrifices since 2003, and of Iraq, if troops pulled out of the country too soon.
* You can watch the debate, which is expected to start at about 1540 GMT, live on the BBC News website. There will be a link to the coverage on this page. * You can watch the debate, which is expected to start at about 1540 GMT, live on the BBC News website. There will be a link to the coverage on this page.