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| Israeli Views on Iran Diverged, Reports Say | Israeli Views on Iran Diverged, Reports Say |
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| JERUSALEM — Shortly after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel’s dire warning at the United Nations in 2012 that Iran was a mere months away from being able to develop a nuclear bomb, Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency presented a more sober assessment that did not support Mr. Netanyahu’s timetable. | JERUSALEM — Shortly after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel’s dire warning at the United Nations in 2012 that Iran was a mere months away from being able to develop a nuclear bomb, Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency presented a more sober assessment that did not support Mr. Netanyahu’s timetable. |
| The Mossad view was in a report that was among a large trove of leaked South African intelligence service documents that were published Monday by Al Jazeera and The Guardian. | |
| Mr. Netanyahu, in a dramatic speech in September 2012 during which he drew a red line across a cartoon bomb, said at the time that Iran was “well into the second stage” of enriching uranium and could complete the final stage “by next spring, at most by next summer.” He added ominously, “From there, it’s only a few months, possibly a few weeks, before they get enough enriched uranium for the first bomb.” | Mr. Netanyahu, in a dramatic speech in September 2012 during which he drew a red line across a cartoon bomb, said at the time that Iran was “well into the second stage” of enriching uranium and could complete the final stage “by next spring, at most by next summer.” He added ominously, “From there, it’s only a few months, possibly a few weeks, before they get enough enriched uranium for the first bomb.” |
| But the report from Mossad, dated about three weeks later, said Iran “does not appear to be ready to enrich” uranium beyond 20 percent, the second stage, and gave no estimates for when it might do so. Separately, it said that although Iran was making “great efforts” to activate a heavy-water reactor to produce weapons-grade plutonium, “this will not happen before mid-2014.” | |
| “When the reactor begins operation, production of plutonium will begin at a quantity sufficient to produce one bomb a year, but there will be no use for the weapons as long as there is no nuclear fuel reprocessing plant,” said the six-page document. “Bottom line: though Iran at this stage is not performing the activity necessary to produce weapons, it is working to close gaps in areas that appear legitimate, such as enrichment, reactors, which will reduce the time required to produce weapons from the time the instruction is actually given.” | |
| The document was published as Secretary of State John Kerry met with his Iranian counterpart in Geneva to discuss a deal on Tehran’s nuclear program that Mr. Netanyahu vehemently opposes. The Israeli prime minister has alienated the Obama administration and some congressional Democrats by accepting an invitation from the Republican House speaker to speak against the deal at a joint meeting of Congress on March 3, two weeks before Israeli elections. | The document was published as Secretary of State John Kerry met with his Iranian counterpart in Geneva to discuss a deal on Tehran’s nuclear program that Mr. Netanyahu vehemently opposes. The Israeli prime minister has alienated the Obama administration and some congressional Democrats by accepting an invitation from the Republican House speaker to speak against the deal at a joint meeting of Congress on March 3, two weeks before Israeli elections. |
| A senior Israeli government official took issue Monday with headlines in The Guardian and Al Jazeera claiming that Mossad “contradicted” Mr. Netanyahu’s speech, saying “there is no contradiction whatsoever.” Indeed, the Mossad summary does describe “a significant increase in the rate and efficiency of enrichment.” | |
| The Israeli official, speaking on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to do otherwise, said in a statement, “Israel believes the proposed nuclear deal with Iran is a bad deal, for it enables the world’s foremost terror state to create capabilities to produce the elements necessary for a nuclear bomb.” | The Israeli official, speaking on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to do otherwise, said in a statement, “Israel believes the proposed nuclear deal with Iran is a bad deal, for it enables the world’s foremost terror state to create capabilities to produce the elements necessary for a nuclear bomb.” |
| Gaps between Mr. Netanyahu and Israel’s intelligence services on the Iranian nuclear threat have been aired before. Yuval Diskin, who retired in 2011 as head of Israel’s internal security agency, in April 2012 accused the government of “misleading the public” about Iran and said the leadership made decisions “based on messianic feelings.” Meir Dagan, a former Mossad chief, has also said Mr. Netanyahu’s public assessments on Iran were exaggerated. | Gaps between Mr. Netanyahu and Israel’s intelligence services on the Iranian nuclear threat have been aired before. Yuval Diskin, who retired in 2011 as head of Israel’s internal security agency, in April 2012 accused the government of “misleading the public” about Iran and said the leadership made decisions “based on messianic feelings.” Meir Dagan, a former Mossad chief, has also said Mr. Netanyahu’s public assessments on Iran were exaggerated. |