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Iran nuclear talks going down to the wire Iran nuclear talks going down to the wire
(35 minutes later)
LONDON Time is running out to forge an agreement on Iran’s nuclear program that, while still a work in progress, is causing angst from Congress to the Knesset to many a Majlis in the Middle East. LONDON Time is running out to forge an agreement on Iran’s nuclear program that, while still a work in progress, is causing angst from Congress to the Knesset to many a Majlis in the Middle East.
Secretary of State John F. Kerry flies to Paris on Saturday for consultations with the foreign ministers of France, Great Britain and Germany. Though the United States is taking the lead in negotiations, the three countries, plus China and Russia, are also involved in framing a deal to constrict Iran’s nuclear ability, impose strict monitoring and possibly ease sanctions after 10 years. Secretary of State John F. Kerry flies to Paris on Saturday for consultations with the foreign ministers of France, Britain and Germany. Though the United States is taking the lead in negotiations, the three countries, plus China and Russia, are also involved in framing a deal to constrict Iran’s nuclear ability, impose strict monitoring and possibly ease sanctions after 10 years.
The reason talks have come down to now-or-never is a self-imposed deadline. After limping along for most of a decade, talks picked up in earnest in 2013 after Hassan Rouhani was elected president of Iran on a promise of relief from sanctions. After two extensions, negotiators are sprinting to reach a general understanding of basic principles by the end of March, leaving the complicated technical details to be worked out in the ensuing three months.The reason talks have come down to now-or-never is a self-imposed deadline. After limping along for most of a decade, talks picked up in earnest in 2013 after Hassan Rouhani was elected president of Iran on a promise of relief from sanctions. After two extensions, negotiators are sprinting to reach a general understanding of basic principles by the end of March, leaving the complicated technical details to be worked out in the ensuing three months.
Many in Congress have set the deadline at March 24, four months to the day after a temporary agreement was extended to June 30 and the United States said it wanted a general framework in place within four months. But the State Department is taking the deadline less literally, saying it is aiming for March 31.Many in Congress have set the deadline at March 24, four months to the day after a temporary agreement was extended to June 30 and the United States said it wanted a general framework in place within four months. But the State Department is taking the deadline less literally, saying it is aiming for March 31.
Either way, the calendar pages are flipping past rapidly, leaving time for no more than two more rounds of talks.Either way, the calendar pages are flipping past rapidly, leaving time for no more than two more rounds of talks.
[Read: Kerry seeks to assure Arab states over possible Iran nuclear deal][Read: Kerry seeks to assure Arab states over possible Iran nuclear deal]
Kerry and his Iranian counterpart, Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, met over three days in Geneva last week, mulling over centrifuges and heavy water reactors even as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu lobbied against the deal in a speech to Congress.Kerry and his Iranian counterpart, Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, met over three days in Geneva last week, mulling over centrifuges and heavy water reactors even as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu lobbied against the deal in a speech to Congress.
Their next meeting is scheduled for March 15, probably in Geneva. But the Iranian new year, Nowruz, begins March 22, a three-day national holiday when Kerry also has other obligations.Their next meeting is scheduled for March 15, probably in Geneva. But the Iranian new year, Nowruz, begins March 22, a three-day national holiday when Kerry also has other obligations.
So unless they strike an agreement in Geneva, the talks will go down to the wire in a flurry of negotiations over the last days of the month. Then it will be up to President Obama to decide how to proceed.So unless they strike an agreement in Geneva, the talks will go down to the wire in a flurry of negotiations over the last days of the month. Then it will be up to President Obama to decide how to proceed.
If they succeed, a deal will be one of the lasting legacies of Obama and Kerry. Zarif and Kerry both emerge from every round of talks saying progress has been made but significant gaps remain. Kerry says it is now up to Tehran to decide whether it is willing to make concessions, facing down opposition from hardliners who oppose negotiations with their arch enemy, the United States. If they succeed, a deal will be one of Obama and Kerry’s lasting legacies. Zarif and Kerry both emerge from every round of talks saying progress has been made but significant gaps remain. Kerry says it is now up to Tehran to decide whether it is willing to make concessions, facing down opposition from hardliners who oppose negotiations with their arch enemy, the United States.
“We plan to return to the talks on the 15th of March, and we expect soon thereafter to know whether Iran will, in fact, be able to make the tough decisions that are required to get where we need to be,” Kerry said Thursday in Riyadh.“We plan to return to the talks on the 15th of March, and we expect soon thereafter to know whether Iran will, in fact, be able to make the tough decisions that are required to get where we need to be,” Kerry said Thursday in Riyadh.
Administration officials have said negotiators are seeking to leave Iran with only one plant capable of enriching uranium, needed for both peaceful purposes and to build nuclear weapons. They also aim to have frequent and intrusive inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency on all of Iran’s related plants, mills, mines and reactors so the world can get a heads-up if Iran is cheating.Administration officials have said negotiators are seeking to leave Iran with only one plant capable of enriching uranium, needed for both peaceful purposes and to build nuclear weapons. They also aim to have frequent and intrusive inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency on all of Iran’s related plants, mills, mines and reactors so the world can get a heads-up if Iran is cheating.
But many countries in the Middle East will not be easily assuaged by any agreement signed by a country that Kerry publicly acknowledged in Riyadh will still be considered a state sponsor of terror.But many countries in the Middle East will not be easily assuaged by any agreement signed by a country that Kerry publicly acknowledged in Riyadh will still be considered a state sponsor of terror.
Israel in particular, considering Iran’s nuclear program a potential existential threat, is skeptical of administration assurances that the deal will require limits so Iran would need a year or longer to “breakout,” meaning amass enough enriched uranium to build a nuclear bomb. Netanyahu told Congress that Israel calculates that it will be less. Israel also is worried about what happens after the agreement ends 15 years or so down the road and Iran has no commitment to limit its nuclear program. Israel in particular, considering Iran’s nuclear program a potential existential threat, is skeptical of administration assurances that the deal will require limits so Iran would need a year or longer to “break out,” meaning amass enough enriched uranium to build a nuclear bomb. Netanyahu told Congress that Israel calculates that it will be less. Israel also is worried about what happens after the agreement ends 15 years or so down the road and Iran has no commitment to limit its nuclear program.
But State Department officials familiar with the negotiations said Iran will have to submit to a rigorous inspections program even after the agreement expires, as is expected of all signers of the Non-Proliferation Treaty.But State Department officials familiar with the negotiations said Iran will have to submit to a rigorous inspections program even after the agreement expires, as is expected of all signers of the Non-Proliferation Treaty.
“It is about changing the nature of Iran’s program, the visibility into Iran’s program, and having constraints on Iran’s program for a significant period of time to ensure that the confidence can be built in the international community, and the transparency achieved that assures us that they will not acquire a nuclear weapon,” said a senior State Department official who spoke on condition of anonymity under agency ground rules. “It is about changing the nature of Iran’s program, the visibility into Iran’s program and having constraints on Iran’s program for a significant period of time to ensure that the confidence can be built in the international community, and the transparency achieved that assures us that they will not acquire a nuclear weapon,” said a senior State Department official who spoke on condition of anonymity under agency ground rules.
The Gulf countries are equally worried about Iran’s ambitions in Iraq, Syria Yemen and Lebanon. The Gulf countries are equally worried about Iran’s ambitions in Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Lebanon.
“Iran is taking over the country,” Saudi Prime Minister Saud Al-Faisal said of Iraq after meeting with Kerry. “The act of the war and peace is no longer in the hand of the countries involved with Iran but in the hands of Iran.”
Over months of negotiations Kerry and Zarif appear to have developed a friendly relationship. While posing for the cameras ahead of their sessions, they are overheard chatting about mundane matters like grandchildren. But in recent weeks, there has been less small talk and more urgency to get to the negotiating table.Over months of negotiations Kerry and Zarif appear to have developed a friendly relationship. While posing for the cameras ahead of their sessions, they are overheard chatting about mundane matters like grandchildren. But in recent weeks, there has been less small talk and more urgency to get to the negotiating table.
“All right everybody,” Kerry said after a few seconds of chitchat. “I think it’s time to get to work.”“All right everybody,” Kerry said after a few seconds of chitchat. “I think it’s time to get to work.”
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