The Guardian view on Iran: America’s uncomfortable ally

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/mar/06/guardian-view-iran-america-uncomfortable-ally

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An ever more visible feature of the ongoing US-led military operation against Islamic State (Isis) is the intertwining of this effort with Iran’s objectives in the region. Battling the same enemy, the old adversaries have found themselves a common cause. It is a striking illustration of how fast the Middle Eastern landscape is changing. There is much irony and paradox in this US-Iran duo. After all, Iran continues to call the US “the Great Satan”. Equally, in Washington, officials are careful not to describe the relationship with Tehran as having strategically shifted from the decades of enmity. Diplomatic relations that were cut off after Iran’s 1979 revolution have not been formally restored, even though high-level diplomatic contacts are now almost routine.

Even as US and Iranian negotiators pursue talks over Iran’s nuclear programme, with a tentative deadline approaching in two weeks, the realities of the war on Isis and its extremist Sunni Salafi ideology have bound the two powers together in unprecedented ways. Iran’s regional clout is growing in parallel. It was already strong, ever since the overthrow of Saddam Hussein in 2003. The US invasion of Iraq empowered the Shia community there, which Iran’s leaders see as part of their constituency and as a card in its confrontation with Saudi Arabia.

Iran and its armed forces are now playing a key role in defending Iraq’s government against the onslaught of Isis. In recent days, Iranian-backed militias have taken the lead in the fight against Isis around Tikrit, where the coalition has launched an offensive. The signs are that Iran’s Revolutionary Guards are taking part. This is an organisation that has been targeted in the past by UN and US sanctions. Now it is, in effect, an entity whose role in Iraq – both in backing militias, and reportedly more directly – the US is learning to see as useful, if not necessary. After all, Barack Obama’s strategy against Isis hinges on avoiding anything smacking of direct military engagement with ground troops, increasing the effective reliance on Iran. Last August, the codependence first became apparent when US warplanes carried out missions over the Iraqi district of Amerli, thus providing close air support to the Iranian Revolutionary Guards active on the ground. Iran is today helping the Iraqis hold the line against Isis advances while American advisers are tasked with training Iraq’s armed forces.

Iran’s growing clout is also evident in the support it has been providing to the regime in Syria, without which Assad might have been toppled. Iran is a major player in Lebanon through the influence it exerts over Hezbollah. And some experts see Iran’s hands in the Houthi rebellion that has engulfed Yemen. How these regional power games and the Iran-US rapprochement will be dealt with by the Gulf Sunni states – who deeply resent the new situation – is a big uncertainty.

The US is already having trouble reassuring its Arab allies. This is one of the limitations its Iranian detente may soon run into, potentially threatening the cohesiveness of the anti-Isis coalition. The result of these uneasy balancing acts, alongside the nuclear negotiations, could reset the future of the Middle East.