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Israeli exit polls show race in a virtual tie Israeli exit polls show race in a virtual tie
(about 1 hour later)
TEL AVIV — Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu overcame a strong challenge in Israel’s parliamentary elections Tuesday to finish in a virtual tie with his main opponent, Labor Party leader Isaac Herzog, according to exit poll results reported by Israel’s three largest television news stations.TEL AVIV — Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu overcame a strong challenge in Israel’s parliamentary elections Tuesday to finish in a virtual tie with his main opponent, Labor Party leader Isaac Herzog, according to exit poll results reported by Israel’s three largest television news stations.
After the initial exit poll results were announced, Netanyahu declared victory on Twitter. He said he has already begun to call potential coalition partners about forming a new government. After the initial exit poll results were announced, Netanyahu declared victory on Twitter. He said he had already begun to call potential coalition partners about forming a new government.
“Against all odds, we achieved a great victory,” Netanyahu later told his supporters in a packed hall in Tel Aviv at around 1 a.m. Wednesday. “Now we have to form a strong and stable government.” “Against all odds, we achieved a great victory,” Netanyahu later told his supporters in a packed hall in Tel Aviv about 1 a.m. Wednesday. “Now we have to form a strong and stable government.”
The crowd chanted, “No unity government!” But Herzog said Netanyahu’s victory declaration, ahead of final results and coalition formation, was premature.
Netanyahu called the results “a miracle” and said his fellow Likud members were “magicians.” “We’re going to wait for the true results,” Herzog told his supporters. “Everything is still open.”
But Herzog said Netanyahu’s victory declaration was premature. “This result enables us to return to power,” he told his supporters. “We’re going to wait for the true results. Every result right now is an exit poll. Everything is still open.” Exit surveys released immediately after the polls closed at 10 p.m.showed Netanyahu and his rightist Likud party drawing 27 or 28 seats in the next parliament, against the 27 forecast for the center-left Zionist Union alliance of Herzog and his running mate, former peace negotiator Tzipi Livni. A coalition of Israeli Arab parties, called the Joint List, emerged in third place, according to the exit polls.
Exit surveys released immediately after the polls closed here at 10 p.m. (4 p.m. EDT) showed Netanyahu and his rightist Likud party drawing 27 or 28 seats in the next parliament, against the 27 forecast for the center-left Zionist Union alliance of Herzog and his running mate, former peace negotiator Tzipi Livni. A final count of actual votes may not be completed until Thursday, but exit polls in Israel are viewed as good predictors of eventual results. If the returns track the exit polling, either Netanyahu or Herzog may be called upon to form the next government — although it appeared that Netanyahu might have an edge in building a coalition from the top 11 parties that drew enough votes to seat their candidates in parliament.
A coalition of Israeli Arab parties, called the Joint List, emerged in third place, according to the exit polls. The election was being closely watched in Washington, where Netanyahu gave a speech to Congress two weeks ago opposing the Obama administration’s attempts to reach a deal with Iran to rein in Tehran’s nuclear program, angering the White House. Some analysts predicted tensions would deepen after the Israeli leader’s pronouncement Monday that he would not support the creation of a Palestinian state, a reversal of his earlier stance.
A final count of actual votes may not be completed until Thursday, but exit polls in Israel are viewed as good predictors of eventual results. White House press Secretary Josh Earnest said President Obama “remains committed to working very closely” with whoever wins the Israeli premiership.
If the returns track the exit polling, it could mean that either Netanyahu or Herzog may be called upon to form the next government — though it appeared that Netanyahu might have an edge in building a coalition from the top 11 parties that drew enough votes to seat their candidates in parliament. Voter turnout was high, with almost 72 percent of eligible voters going to the polls. Leaders of the Arab parties suggested that Arab Israeli turnout reached 65 percent, far higher than in the country’s last national elections, in 2013.
Turnout was high. Almost 72 percent of eligible voters went to the polls.
[Why Israel’s top hawk wants people to “stop apologizing”][Why Israel’s top hawk wants people to “stop apologizing”]
In a hall filled with Likud activists, raucous celebrations and chants of “Bibi, Bibi, Bibi,” Netanyahu’s nickname, greeted announcements of the exit polling.
But the Zionist Union remained defiant. “The right-wing bloc has shrunk. Everything is open until the final results are in when we will know which parties crossed the electoral threshold. All the spin is premature.”
Netanyahu and Likud appeared to come up from behind. The last round of pre-election opinion surveys on Friday showed Likud trailing Herzog’s alliance by three or four seats.Netanyahu and Likud appeared to come up from behind. The last round of pre-election opinion surveys on Friday showed Likud trailing Herzog’s alliance by three or four seats.
Pundits were beginning to write the first drafts of Netanyahu’s political obituary. Reporters asked him in interviews what he planned do in retirement.Pundits were beginning to write the first drafts of Netanyahu’s political obituary. Reporters asked him in interviews what he planned do in retirement.
In the last five days, Netanyahu took to the airwaves, warning repeatedly that Herzog and the left were going to turn over land to the Palestinians and divide Jerusalem in half. But in the past five days, Netanyahu took to the airwaves, warning repeatedly that Herzog and the left were going to turn over land to the Palestinians and divide Jerusalem in half.
The virtual tie according to exit polls surprised many ordinary Israelis. The electorate here has been trending rightward for years. The virtual tie, according to exit polls, surprised many ordinary Israelis. The electorate here has been trending rightward for years.
“Israelis said very clearly ‘yes’ today to Prime Minister Netanyahu and Likud to continue to lead the country,” said Likud party leader Silvan Shalom, who was confident that Netanyahu would succeed in forming the next government. “Israelis said very clearly yes today to Prime Minister Netanyahu and Likud to continue to lead the country,” said Likud party leader Silvan Shalom, who said he was confident that Netanyahu would succeed in forming the next government.
“We are willing to form a new coalition in a short time with our allies,” Shalom said. “It’s a big victory for the Likud,” said Likud member Danny Danon, a former deputy defense minister. “This is a win for the right, and all my friends on the left need to acknowledge this win.”
“This is a big surprise, but it’s a big victory for the Likud,” said Likud member Danny Danon, a former deputy defense minister. “This is a win for the right, and all my friends on the left need to acknowledge this win,” he said. Israeli President Reuven Rivlin will now ask party leaders to come to his residence and signal to him whom they want to lead the next coalition government. He suggested Tuesday night that he would press for a government of national unity combining Labor and Likud.
Israeli President Rueven Rivlin will now ask party leaders to come to his residence and signal to him whom they want to lead the next coalition government. He said Tuesday night that he would press for a government of national unity combining Labor and Likud.
[How Netanyahu could win even he loses][How Netanyahu could win even he loses]
Amid the indications so far of a virtual dead heat, there could be days or weeks of wheeling and dealing to come before a new Israeli government is formed — and the party with the most votes may not be the one that leads a new governing coalition. It all depends on which party can piece together a puzzle from factions of the left, right and center — including parties that represent ultra-Orthodox Jews. Amid the indications so far of a virtual dead heat, there could be days or weeks of wheeling and dealing to come before a new Israeli government is formed — and the party with the most votes may not be the one that leads a new governing coalition. It will depend on which party can piece together a puzzle from factions of the left, right and center — including parties that represent ultra-Orthodox Jews.
It was also possible, if neither Herzog nor Netanyahu could put together a governing coalition, that they could be forced to form a national unity government — as Rivlin advocated.It was also possible, if neither Herzog nor Netanyahu could put together a governing coalition, that they could be forced to form a national unity government — as Rivlin advocated.
“It is far from clear what the outcome is,” said Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute. “Both may try to form a government.”“It is far from clear what the outcome is,” said Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute. “Both may try to form a government.”
Abraham Diskin, a political science professor at Hebrew University, said that Netanyahu and Likud did appear to have a slight edge in forming a coalition. “But nothing is certain,” he said. “Israel is full of surprises.” A leader of the Labor Party, Nachman Shai, conceded that Netanyahu may have an easier time forming a government, but he said it was too soon for either side to declare victory.
A leader of the Labor Party, Nachman Shai, conceded that Netanyahu may have an easier time forming a government, but he said it was too soon for either side to declare victory — “though we both will.” “I just advise everyone to wait 24 or 48 hours; just wait and see,” Shai said.
“I just advise everyone to wait 24 or 48 hours, just wait and see,” Shai said.
The kingmaker of Israeli politics may now be Moshe Kahlon, a former Likud minister who left that party to form his own, called Kulanu, which won nine or 10 seats, according to exit polls. Kahlon tweeted that it was a “great success.”The kingmaker of Israeli politics may now be Moshe Kahlon, a former Likud minister who left that party to form his own, called Kulanu, which won nine or 10 seats, according to exit polls. Kahlon tweeted that it was a “great success.”
Kahlon became popular with voters after he broke cellphone monopolies and prices for mobile minutes plummeted. His party’s candidates include Michael Oren, a former Israeli ambassador to the United States, who rebuked Netanyahu for addressing Congress two weeks ago. Kahlon became popular with voters after he broke up cellphone monopolies and the prices­ for mobile minutes plummeted. His party’s candidates include Michael Oren, a former Israeli ambassador to the United States, who rebuked Netanyahu for addressing Congress in the polarizing speech on Iran this month.
Before the election, Kahlon refused to say whether he would join a coalition led by Netanyahu or Herzog. But many analysts believe he may ultimately side with Netanyahu, since Kahlon’s politics are more closely aligned with Likud than with Labor. Before the election, Kahlon refused to say whether he would join a coalition led by Netanyahu or Herzog. But many analysts think that he may ultimately side with Netanyahu, because Kahlon’s politics are more closely aligned with Likud than with Labor.
[A guide to the political parties battling for Israel’s future][A guide to the political parties battling for Israel’s future]
As voting was underway Tuesday, Netanyahu said his government was “in danger,” notably from a turnout of Israeli Arab voters. As voting was underway Tuesday, Netanyahu said his government was “in danger,” notably from a turnout of Israeli Arab voters. The alarm from Netanyahu reflected the tight margins in his bid to hold back a surging challenge from Herzog.
The alarm from Netanyahu reflected the tight margins in his bid to hold back a surging challenge from Herzog.
Netanyahu, 65, who has served as prime minister for nine years spread over three terms, appeared set to easily win an unprecedented fourth term when he called the election in December, two years early.Netanyahu, 65, who has served as prime minister for nine years spread over three terms, appeared set to easily win an unprecedented fourth term when he called the election in December, two years early.
Herzog, 54, the son of a former president and grandson of a prominent rabbi, mounted an unexpectedly strong center-left campaign, capitalizing on economic malaise and what some voters described as weariness with Netanyahu.Herzog, 54, the son of a former president and grandson of a prominent rabbi, mounted an unexpectedly strong center-left campaign, capitalizing on economic malaise and what some voters described as weariness with Netanyahu.
Netanyahu’s fate also could swing on turnout by the Israeli Arabs, who comprise about 20 percent of Israel’s population and widely oppose Netanyahu’s security-first policies — including his new pledge to oppose any negotiations that include possible Palestinian statehood.
The Joint List of Arab Parties suggested that Arab Israeli turnout could be higher than in the country’s last national elections in 2013. But other election watchers said it was too early to fully assess turnout figures from blocs such as Israeli Arabs, who have full voting rights in contrast with Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza.
“The right-wing government is in danger,” Netanyahu said in video posted on Facebook on Tuesday before the polls closed. “Arab voters are coming out in droves to the polls.”“The right-wing government is in danger,” Netanyahu said in video posted on Facebook on Tuesday before the polls closed. “Arab voters are coming out in droves to the polls.”
Earlier, Netanyahu charged that unnamed “foreign powers” were pouring money and resources into an “anyone but Bibi” campaign.Earlier, Netanyahu charged that unnamed “foreign powers” were pouring money and resources into an “anyone but Bibi” campaign.
Also on voters’ minds was the direction of Israel’s deep political and security connections to the United States.
While the ties remain a pillar for both countries, Netanyahu has stirred nearly unprecedented challenges to the White House by opposing U.S. attempts to reach a deal with Iran to rein in Tehran’s nuclear program.
Ruth Eglash contributed to this report.Ruth Eglash contributed to this report.
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