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Institute of Welsh Affairs: Wales lacks economic ambition | Institute of Welsh Affairs: Wales lacks economic ambition |
(about 5 hours later) | |
Wales will not be able to catch up England economically unless it is more ambitious, a top economist has warned. | Wales will not be able to catch up England economically unless it is more ambitious, a top economist has warned. |
There is "little evidence" that devolution has had much effect on the Welsh economy, Prof Gerry Holtham says in his report. | There is "little evidence" that devolution has had much effect on the Welsh economy, Prof Gerry Holtham says in his report. |
The value of the goods and services from Wales was 72.4% of the UK average in 1999 and 72.2% 13 years later. | The value of the goods and services from Wales was 72.4% of the UK average in 1999 and 72.2% 13 years later. |
The Welsh government said it was generating the conditions necessary to create jobs and attract investment. | The Welsh government said it was generating the conditions necessary to create jobs and attract investment. |
The report has been produced for the think-tank, the Institute of Welsh Affairs (IWA), where Prof Holtham - a former Welsh government adviser - is chairman of its economy group. | The report has been produced for the think-tank, the Institute of Welsh Affairs (IWA), where Prof Holtham - a former Welsh government adviser - is chairman of its economy group. |
"Surely it is time for the country to take a clear-eyed look at how ambitious it wants to be for its economic future and what sort of changes would be required to achieve its ambitions," he said. | "Surely it is time for the country to take a clear-eyed look at how ambitious it wants to be for its economic future and what sort of changes would be required to achieve its ambitions," he said. |
Wales needs to grow as fast as eastern Europe in the post-Soviet era to catch up but that needs a "marked shift in approach" to have any chance, says the report. | Wales needs to grow as fast as eastern Europe in the post-Soviet era to catch up but that needs a "marked shift in approach" to have any chance, says the report. |
It was at 72.2% of UK gross value added (GVA) per head in 2013/14, the latest available figure. | It was at 72.2% of UK gross value added (GVA) per head in 2013/14, the latest available figure. |
GVA is the value of wages and profits from goods and services produced. | GVA is the value of wages and profits from goods and services produced. |
If Wales continues to maintain growth at 2% a year, it would be only be at 79% of the UK average in 20 years' time. | If Wales continues to maintain growth at 2% a year, it would be only be at 79% of the UK average in 20 years' time. |
To reach the old 90% target, which the report says was dropped and not replaced, Wales would have to increase GVA per head by at least 4% a year and it would take an "economic miracle," compared to post-war France and Italy. | |
IWA director Lee Waters said there was a need for borrowing to invest in big projects like the south Wales Metro and making Wales self-sufficient in renewable energy. | IWA director Lee Waters said there was a need for borrowing to invest in big projects like the south Wales Metro and making Wales self-sufficient in renewable energy. |
"If we really want to close the wealth gap with England we need to marshal all available resources behind a detailed long-term plan," said Mr Waters. | "If we really want to close the wealth gap with England we need to marshal all available resources behind a detailed long-term plan," said Mr Waters. |
In Wednesday's Budget, Chancellor George Osborne said talks would begin towards setting up a City Deal for Cardiff, which would enable it to source millions of pounds for infrastructure projects. | In Wednesday's Budget, Chancellor George Osborne said talks would begin towards setting up a City Deal for Cardiff, which would enable it to source millions of pounds for infrastructure projects. |
A first phase of talks is also to start on the £1bn tidal lagoon project in Swansea Bay. | A first phase of talks is also to start on the £1bn tidal lagoon project in Swansea Bay. |
Prof Holtham added: "Ultimately, it is a political question for the people of Wales. Do we want to pursue modest sensible policies that will change our situation only very gradually? | Prof Holtham added: "Ultimately, it is a political question for the people of Wales. Do we want to pursue modest sensible policies that will change our situation only very gradually? |
"Or are we ready to venture something bolder with no certainty of success but some hope of making a faster change in Wales' circumstances?" | "Or are we ready to venture something bolder with no certainty of success but some hope of making a faster change in Wales' circumstances?" |
The Welsh government said the labour market was improving at a faster rate than across the UK as it was generating the conditions needed to create jobs and attract foreign investment. | The Welsh government said the labour market was improving at a faster rate than across the UK as it was generating the conditions needed to create jobs and attract foreign investment. |
"As a result, since devolution, household income in Wales has risen faster than the UK average, exports have doubled and inward investment into Wales is now at a record level," said a spokesman. | "As a result, since devolution, household income in Wales has risen faster than the UK average, exports have doubled and inward investment into Wales is now at a record level," said a spokesman. |