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| Thinktank tells Ukip departing from EU would cost UK economy £56bn | Thinktank tells Ukip departing from EU would cost UK economy £56bn |
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| Britain faces a stark choice after an EU exit of allowing its economy to shrink by £56bn, by shutting down its borders, or agreeing to the continued free movement of European citizens in a new deal with Brussels, according to a leading thinktank. | Britain faces a stark choice after an EU exit of allowing its economy to shrink by £56bn, by shutting down its borders, or agreeing to the continued free movement of European citizens in a new deal with Brussels, according to a leading thinktank. |
| In a challenge to Nigel Farage, who believes Britain can prosper outside the EU by blocking migration, the Open Europe thinktank warns that a unilateral UK exit could lead to a permanent dent in the country’s GDP of 2.23% by 2030. This works out at £56bn a year. | In a challenge to Nigel Farage, who believes Britain can prosper outside the EU by blocking migration, the Open Europe thinktank warns that a unilateral UK exit could lead to a permanent dent in the country’s GDP of 2.23% by 2030. This works out at £56bn a year. |
| Mats Persson, the director of Open Europe, says in a message to the Ukip leader: “You have some questions to answer [on] exactly what you want to see outside. What is it? Is it the free trading Hong Kong-Britain with very liberal policies, including on migration, which is what is needed to make us competitive? Or is it what probably most of what your voters want: to shut the borders and shut the world out which would mean a net loss in terms of the UK’s GDP and economic competitiveness?” | Mats Persson, the director of Open Europe, says in a message to the Ukip leader: “You have some questions to answer [on] exactly what you want to see outside. What is it? Is it the free trading Hong Kong-Britain with very liberal policies, including on migration, which is what is needed to make us competitive? Or is it what probably most of what your voters want: to shut the borders and shut the world out which would mean a net loss in terms of the UK’s GDP and economic competitiveness?” |
| Open Europe, which campaigns for the sort of major liberalising reforms that would lie at the heart of any EU renegotiation brokered by David Cameron, issues its challenge to Ukip as it publishes a major report examining the options for a UK exit. | Open Europe, which campaigns for the sort of major liberalising reforms that would lie at the heart of any EU renegotiation brokered by David Cameron, issues its challenge to Ukip as it publishes a major report examining the options for a UK exit. |
| In a boost to the prime minister, who says he wants to remain in a reformed EU, the report says that negotiating an EU exit would be so complicated that Britain would be better off putting its energies into securing better membership terms. | In a boost to the prime minister, who says he wants to remain in a reformed EU, the report says that negotiating an EU exit would be so complicated that Britain would be better off putting its energies into securing better membership terms. |
| It says: “If the UK puts as much effort into reforming the EU as it would have to in order to make a success of Brexit, the UK and the EU would both be far better off.” | It says: “If the UK puts as much effort into reforming the EU as it would have to in order to make a success of Brexit, the UK and the EU would both be far better off.” |
| The report, What If, outlines four scenarios – from a worst case to a best case – if Britain votes to leave in the prime minister’s planned referendum in 2017. The moment a member state formally signals its intention to leave the EU, by invoking article 50 of the Lisbon treaty, it triggers two years of negotiations on an exit. During this period the UK would lose its seat on the European Council of EU leaders and would have to negotiate departure terms with two EU member states without a veto. | The report, What If, outlines four scenarios – from a worst case to a best case – if Britain votes to leave in the prime minister’s planned referendum in 2017. The moment a member state formally signals its intention to leave the EU, by invoking article 50 of the Lisbon treaty, it triggers two years of negotiations on an exit. During this period the UK would lose its seat on the European Council of EU leaders and would have to negotiate departure terms with two EU member states without a veto. |
| The four scenarios of a British exit outlined by Open Europe are: | The four scenarios of a British exit outlined by Open Europe are: |
| Open Europe believes that the report represents a particular challenge to Farage who will have to decide whether Britain should see a dramatic shrinking in its GDP or allow unrestricted EU migration. Under the Swiss deals Britain would have to allow the continued free movement of EU citizens. | Open Europe believes that the report represents a particular challenge to Farage who will have to decide whether Britain should see a dramatic shrinking in its GDP or allow unrestricted EU migration. Under the Swiss deals Britain would have to allow the continued free movement of EU citizens. |
| Persson said: “The Swiss model is bilateral, free trade agreements. But they are forced to accept free movement as the prize to get market access to the EU, something they used to be keen on but the Swiss public has voted to amend in a referendum last year. They are now involved in very complex negotiations with the EU. So far the EU has said we are not going to negotiate over this. Switzerland is in a very tricky position.” | Persson said: “The Swiss model is bilateral, free trade agreements. But they are forced to accept free movement as the prize to get market access to the EU, something they used to be keen on but the Swiss public has voted to amend in a referendum last year. They are now involved in very complex negotiations with the EU. So far the EU has said we are not going to negotiate over this. Switzerland is in a very tricky position.” |
| • The headline on this article was amended on 24 March 2015 to better reflect the article. |