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Greece denies planning to miss IMF repayment - live updates Greece denies planning to miss IMF repayment - live updates
(35 minutes later)
4.21pm BST16:21
Heads-up: Eurozone deputy finance ministers have just ended their conference call about Greece.
Euronews’s Efi Koutsokosta reports that the Greek finance minister was also on the call:
#euroworkinggroup where @yanisvaroufakis also participated finished.
4.20pm BST16:20
The Greek stock market has fallen again today, as the uncertainty and occasional eyebrow-raising headlines jangled nerves.
The main ATG index fell 1.3% by the close of trading.
4.16pm BST16:16
The very fact that Greece could threaten to withhold its IMF repayment shows the need for a proper process to handle debt defaults.
So argues Eric LeCompte, Executive Director of the religious debt relief organization Jubilee USA Network.
LeCompte writes:
”We’re watching a poker match between Greece, the IMF and the European Union. The stakes couldn’t be higher with the lives of millions of ordinary people on the line.
“This is more proof that we need a global bankruptcy process with rules that are above board. We can’t be playing poker with people’s lives.”
And just in case any Greek ministers are reading, and considering leaving the IMF empty-handed next Thursday, here’s what would happen next:
Greece, here's what the IMF will do if you don't repay its loans on time. h/t @IanTalley: pic.twitter.com/9ZVQeuIkkp”
4.05pm BST16:05
Greek government bonds have weakened today, pushing up the yields on its short and long-term debt.
Over in the City, Steve Collins has kindly tweeted the details:
Greek sweep : 10-yr 11.81½ +18½ 5-yr 17.10½ +18 3-yr 23.31½ +69 Not the highest we have seen, but market taking today's rumours negatively
3.41pm BST15:413.41pm BST15:41
Greek gov't celebrates April Fool's Day in excellence.Greek gov't celebrates April Fool's Day in excellence.
3.30pm BST15:303.30pm BST15:30
Greek government denies planning to withhold IMF paymentGreek government denies planning to withhold IMF payment
The Athens government has moved swiftly to deny that it won’t meet its €450m repayment to the IMF next week unless its gets a bailout payment quickly.The Athens government has moved swiftly to deny that it won’t meet its €450m repayment to the IMF next week unless its gets a bailout payment quickly.
A government spokesman has denied Spiegel’s story, and insisted that it still hopes for a ‘positive’ outcomes to the current situation.A government spokesman has denied Spiegel’s story, and insisted that it still hopes for a ‘positive’ outcomes to the current situation.
Reuters has the details:Reuters has the details:
Greek journalist Efi Efthimiou also has the denial:Greek journalist Efi Efthimiou also has the denial:
#Greece sources tell @capitalgr that Voutsis comments re IMF payment not new,were similar 2 what was mentioned in the Tsipras letter 2Merkel#Greece sources tell @capitalgr that Voutsis comments re IMF payment not new,were similar 2 what was mentioned in the Tsipras letter 2Merkel
Updated at 3.33pm BSTUpdated at 3.33pm BST
3.26pm BST15:263.26pm BST15:26
That Spiegel story suggesting Greece might not repay the IMF next week has sent ripples through the financial markets.That Spiegel story suggesting Greece might not repay the IMF next week has sent ripples through the financial markets.
Nikos Voutzis’s comments have left traders edgy that the Greek crisis may be flaring up again....Nikos Voutzis’s comments have left traders edgy that the Greek crisis may be flaring up again....
Greece choosing not pay IMF loan on April 9 without backstop is more "Lehman Brothers" than "AIG" - let's hope it doesn't get there.Greece choosing not pay IMF loan on April 9 without backstop is more "Lehman Brothers" than "AIG" - let's hope it doesn't get there.
Market wobbling on this headline: *GREECE DOESN'T WANT TO RESPECT IMF APRIL 9 DEADLINE: SPIEGELMarket wobbling on this headline: *GREECE DOESN'T WANT TO RESPECT IMF APRIL 9 DEADLINE: SPIEGEL
Updated at 3.26pm BSTUpdated at 3.26pm BST
3.06pm BST15:063.06pm BST15:06
Spiegel: Greece may not repay IMF next weekSpiegel: Greece may not repay IMF next week
The crisis just took another twist. Germany’s Spiegel news magazine is reporting that Greece might not meet the €450m loan repayment due to the IMF next week.The crisis just took another twist. Germany’s Spiegel news magazine is reporting that Greece might not meet the €450m loan repayment due to the IMF next week.
Greek Interior Minister Nikos Voutzis has apparently told the paper that, without fresh bailout aid, Athens would be forced to miss this payment.Greek Interior Minister Nikos Voutzis has apparently told the paper that, without fresh bailout aid, Athens would be forced to miss this payment.
Voutzis also warned that Greece only has enough money to last until mid-April, and would prioritise public sector wages and pensions if its creditors fail to release some of the €7.2bn aid currently being withheld.Voutzis also warned that Greece only has enough money to last until mid-April, and would prioritise public sector wages and pensions if its creditors fail to release some of the €7.2bn aid currently being withheld.
The story is online here (in German). Reuters has snapped the key points:The story is online here (in German). Reuters has snapped the key points:
No April fool's day joke: #Greece doesn’t respect #IMF Apr9 deadline (when Greece is due to repay €460mln), BBG reports citing Spiegel.No April fool's day joke: #Greece doesn’t respect #IMF Apr9 deadline (when Greece is due to repay €460mln), BBG reports citing Spiegel.
Being late with an IMF repayment isn’t unprecedented -- Sudan, Zimbabwe and Somalia have all missed payments. But it would be a major event, raising a lot of concern over Greece’s ability to meet other obligations and sending Grexit fears soaring.,Being late with an IMF repayment isn’t unprecedented -- Sudan, Zimbabwe and Somalia have all missed payments. But it would be a major event, raising a lot of concern over Greece’s ability to meet other obligations and sending Grexit fears soaring.,
It could also potentially trigger ‘cross-default’ clauses in other Greek bonds, if Greece doesn’t meet the payment within a month.It could also potentially trigger ‘cross-default’ clauses in other Greek bonds, if Greece doesn’t meet the payment within a month.
The Open Europe thinktank have just released a good analysis on the issue. Here’s a flavour:The Open Europe thinktank have just released a good analysis on the issue. Here’s a flavour:
One of the biggest problems for Greece is that it is still working with the Fund and relies on its sign off (as part of the ‘institutions’) to get its current review completed and therefore funding released. The response of the fund on the ground will therefore be important. Of course, the fund finds itself in a bit of a circular position. It is unlikely to get paid if it does not approve Greece’s review, but how can it approve the review if it is not getting paid?....One of the biggest problems for Greece is that it is still working with the Fund and relies on its sign off (as part of the ‘institutions’) to get its current review completed and therefore funding released. The response of the fund on the ground will therefore be important. Of course, the fund finds itself in a bit of a circular position. It is unlikely to get paid if it does not approve Greece’s review, but how can it approve the review if it is not getting paid?....
Gap with creditors grows, reputation harmed: Linked to the above, given that not paying the IMF is usually a course of action reserved only for war torn countries or those on the fringes of the international system, not to mention severly underdeveloped economies, Greece could see its reputation severely dented. Furthermore, it is possible that Greece’s creditors will see that Greece has decided to pay wages and pensions first rather than meet its commitments to them. Whether or not this is a fair assessment, this could drive further animosity between the two sides.Gap with creditors grows, reputation harmed: Linked to the above, given that not paying the IMF is usually a course of action reserved only for war torn countries or those on the fringes of the international system, not to mention severly underdeveloped economies, Greece could see its reputation severely dented. Furthermore, it is possible that Greece’s creditors will see that Greece has decided to pay wages and pensions first rather than meet its commitments to them. Whether or not this is a fair assessment, this could drive further animosity between the two sides.
So what happens if #Greece fails to pay the IMF on time? Time to read our blog post from this morning: http://t.co/RYrzXAN18ISo what happens if #Greece fails to pay the IMF on time? Time to read our blog post from this morning: http://t.co/RYrzXAN18I
Updated at 3.14pm BSTUpdated at 3.14pm BST
2.04pm BST14:042.04pm BST14:04
Summary: At least they're still talking...Summary: At least they're still talking...
A brief recap:A brief recap:
Eurozone deputy finance ministers will hold a conference call shortly to discuss the state of play around Greece’s reform plan.Eurozone deputy finance ministers will hold a conference call shortly to discuss the state of play around Greece’s reform plan.
Germany’s finance ministry has already predicted that the call won’t yield much, though. Despite five days of talks in Brussels (which ended yesterday), we still don’t have a list of solid reforms that could persuade creditors to hand over bailout cash.Germany’s finance ministry has already predicted that the call won’t yield much, though. Despite five days of talks in Brussels (which ended yesterday), we still don’t have a list of solid reforms that could persuade creditors to hand over bailout cash.
Officially, Greece’s government remains upbeat. Economy Minister George Stathakis set the scene this morning by telling Skai TV that the two sides will agree a package of reforms next week. He said:Officially, Greece’s government remains upbeat. Economy Minister George Stathakis set the scene this morning by telling Skai TV that the two sides will agree a package of reforms next week. He said:
“The agreement will close on (Greek Orthodox) Easter week.“The agreement will close on (Greek Orthodox) Easter week.
But the word from Brussels is that a deal is still far away, with eurozone finance ministers not expected to meet until late April.But the word from Brussels is that a deal is still far away, with eurozone finance ministers not expected to meet until late April.
And the uncertainty is weighing on Greek bonds, pushing up its borrowing costs while other eurozone members benefit from lower yields:And the uncertainty is weighing on Greek bonds, pushing up its borrowing costs while other eurozone members benefit from lower yields:
Greek negotiations are widening the spread between its yields and the rest of the periphery http://t.co/M2PU92yRim pic.twitter.com/zWU9HbmrZGGreek negotiations are widening the spread between its yields and the rest of the periphery http://t.co/M2PU92yRim pic.twitter.com/zWU9HbmrZG
Greek pensioners have rallied in Athens, urging the government to reverse cuts to pensions and healthcare. Photos here.Greek pensioners have rallied in Athens, urging the government to reverse cuts to pensions and healthcare. Photos here.
And a group of protesters have been arrested after invading the courtyard of the Greek parliament, in a show of solidarity with anarchists and hunger striking prisoners.And a group of protesters have been arrested after invading the courtyard of the Greek parliament, in a show of solidarity with anarchists and hunger striking prisoners.
The latest economic data has shown that the political uncertainty gripping Greece is hurting its economy. Factory output fell in March for the third month running, with export orders weakening.The latest economic data has shown that the political uncertainty gripping Greece is hurting its economy. Factory output fell in March for the third month running, with export orders weakening.
The rest of the eurozone did better, though, with manufacturing growing at its fastest rate in 10 months.The rest of the eurozone did better, though, with manufacturing growing at its fastest rate in 10 months.
Britain’s factories also posted solid growth last month,. but this has been overshadowed by confirmation that UK productivity is stuck in its worst rut since 1948.Britain’s factories also posted solid growth last month,. but this has been overshadowed by confirmation that UK productivity is stuck in its worst rut since 1948.
Related: UK productivity growth is weakest since second world war, says ONSRelated: UK productivity growth is weakest since second world war, says ONS
Updated at 2.04pm BSTUpdated at 2.04pm BST
1.39pm BST13:391.39pm BST13:39
We’ve not seen so much of Yanis Varoufakis, recently -- hopefully he’s been hard at work writing that economic reform plan.We’ve not seen so much of Yanis Varoufakis, recently -- hopefully he’s been hard at work writing that economic reform plan.
But Greece’s finance minister has just appeared on Twitter, to plug a ‘witty’ joke about Greece moving to Bitcoin.But Greece’s finance minister has just appeared on Twitter, to plug a ‘witty’ joke about Greece moving to Bitcoin.
Happy April Fool's Day everyone... http://t.co/HELEDGDpOkHappy April Fool's Day everyone... http://t.co/HELEDGDpOk
No worse than Yanis’s idea of turning tourists into undercover tax snoopers, I guess.No worse than Yanis’s idea of turning tourists into undercover tax snoopers, I guess.
Incidentally, it’s not been a great April Fool’s Day for the European Central Bank’s media chief, Michael Steen. Germany’s FAZ newspaper told its readers we could all dine at the ECB’s new restaurant. For reservations, phone Michael! (no don’t, he’s had a bad morning)Incidentally, it’s not been a great April Fool’s Day for the European Central Bank’s media chief, Michael Steen. Germany’s FAZ newspaper told its readers we could all dine at the ECB’s new restaurant. For reservations, phone Michael! (no don’t, he’s had a bad morning)
Yeah @FAZ I was nearly chuckling until I realised you printed my phone number and my phone is now unusable. pic.twitter.com/t7ohYQ35HPYeah @FAZ I was nearly chuckling until I realised you printed my phone number and my phone is now unusable. pic.twitter.com/t7ohYQ35HP
In grand scheme of things of course, this might be one of the more accurate FAZ stories about the ECB. (Spoiler: there is no restaurant.)In grand scheme of things of course, this might be one of the more accurate FAZ stories about the ECB. (Spoiler: there is no restaurant.)
Updated at 1.43pm BSTUpdated at 1.43pm BST
1.18pm BST13:181.18pm BST13:18
Interesting....Interesting....
#Greece Gov't to present new fiscal measures at #Eurogroup Working Group's teleconference call this pm, @euro2day_gr reports#Greece Gov't to present new fiscal measures at #Eurogroup Working Group's teleconference call this pm, @euro2day_gr reports
Updated at 1.19pm BSTUpdated at 1.19pm BST
1.16pm BST13:161.16pm BST13:16
Germany: Hard to predict how Greek situation will developGermany: Hard to predict how Greek situation will develop
Germany’s finance ministry has confirmed that eurozone deputy finance ministers will hold a conference call this afternoon, to discuss the state of play around Greece.Germany’s finance ministry has confirmed that eurozone deputy finance ministers will hold a conference call this afternoon, to discuss the state of play around Greece.
But it has also dampened hopes that this call would take the eurozone closer to an agreement over Greece’s reform plans.But it has also dampened hopes that this call would take the eurozone closer to an agreement over Greece’s reform plans.
Spokesman Martin Jaeger told reporters in Berlin that he only has “modest” expectations for the call.Spokesman Martin Jaeger told reporters in Berlin that he only has “modest” expectations for the call.
“In the best case scenario we expect there could be some kind of preliminary interim review but it’s hard to predict how things will develop next week.”“In the best case scenario we expect there could be some kind of preliminary interim review but it’s hard to predict how things will develop next week.”
That’s notably gloomier than the Greek side, who remain upbeat despite the lack of progress. Remember, economy minister George Stathakis said this morning that:That’s notably gloomier than the Greek side, who remain upbeat despite the lack of progress. Remember, economy minister George Stathakis said this morning that:
“The agreement will close on (Greek Orthodox) Easter week.”“The agreement will close on (Greek Orthodox) Easter week.”
12.59pm BST12:5912.59pm BST12:59
Last week, I rather expected that we’d soon see another late-night crunch session in Brussels to debate Greece’s finances.Last week, I rather expected that we’d soon see another late-night crunch session in Brussels to debate Greece’s finances.
But this (obviously) hasn’t happened yet. And as long as we don’t have an agreement between Greece and her creditors over a reform package, it’s not going to happen.But this (obviously) hasn’t happened yet. And as long as we don’t have an agreement between Greece and her creditors over a reform package, it’s not going to happen.
The FT’s Peter Spiegel is hearing that the next meeting of eurozone finance ministers might not take place for another three weeks....The FT’s Peter Spiegel is hearing that the next meeting of eurozone finance ministers might not take place for another three weeks....
More I talk to people here, the more saying no #Eurogroup before regularly-scheduled meet Apr 24 in Riga. No sign of #Greece deal in sightMore I talk to people here, the more saying no #Eurogroup before regularly-scheduled meet Apr 24 in Riga. No sign of #Greece deal in sight
12.47pm BST12:4712.47pm BST12:47
Journalist Loukia Gyftopoulou has more details about those protests, and arrests, in the Greek parliament courtroom this afternoon:Journalist Loukia Gyftopoulou has more details about those protests, and arrests, in the Greek parliament courtroom this afternoon:
Anarchist invasion in Parliament will be a real test for gov after #Syriza promised absence of police in dems. So far 15 detained #GreeceAnarchist invasion in Parliament will be a real test for gov after #Syriza promised absence of police in dems. So far 15 detained #Greece
Protesters demand abolition of anti-terror laws, prisoners' release and closure of maximum security prisons #GreeceProtesters demand abolition of anti-terror laws, prisoners' release and closure of maximum security prisons #Greece
12.31pm BST12:3112.31pm BST12:31
Greek police have now swept into the parliament courtyard to break up the protests:Greek police have now swept into the parliament courtyard to break up the protests:
Greek police make arrests follwing invasion of parliament courtyard - VIDEO - http://t.co/MZaPieO5oq pic.twitter.com/oo43MPvkn2Greek police make arrests follwing invasion of parliament courtyard - VIDEO - http://t.co/MZaPieO5oq pic.twitter.com/oo43MPvkn2
12.17pm BST12:1712.17pm BST12:17
It’s all looking rather lively in Greece today.It’s all looking rather lively in Greece today.
A group of protesters are now demonstrating on the courtyard of the Greek parliament, as part of a solidarity campaign with prisoners conducting a hunger strike.A group of protesters are now demonstrating on the courtyard of the Greek parliament, as part of a solidarity campaign with prisoners conducting a hunger strike.
Solidarity action at the Greek parliament #now by anarchists #hungerstrike2015 p/v @kinimatini #antireport pic.twitter.com/sjLvz1kkHwSolidarity action at the Greek parliament #now by anarchists #hungerstrike2015 p/v @kinimatini #antireport pic.twitter.com/sjLvz1kkHw
Group of anarchists invade Greek Parliament courtyard - http://t.co/hZjiawBtcs pic.twitter.com/5ZiWtmzGcMGroup of anarchists invade Greek Parliament courtyard - http://t.co/hZjiawBtcs pic.twitter.com/5ZiWtmzGcM
They are calling for members of an anarchist group to be released from custody, and for Greece’s maximum-security prisons to be closed. Earlier this week they invaded Athens University.They are calling for members of an anarchist group to be released from custody, and for Greece’s maximum-security prisons to be closed. Earlier this week they invaded Athens University.
Greece’s parliamentary speaker, Zoe Konstantopoulou, is apparently taking developments in her stride.Greece’s parliamentary speaker, Zoe Konstantopoulou, is apparently taking developments in her stride.
Speaker GR Parl Konstantopoulou's first comment on the anarchists' break-in was "you got jumpy bc some people protested?" via @g_evgenidisSpeaker GR Parl Konstantopoulou's first comment on the anarchists' break-in was "you got jumpy bc some people protested?" via @g_evgenidis
12.03pm BST12:0312.03pm BST12:03
German economist Holder Schmieding blames the new Greek government for the downturn in its economic fortunes this year:German economist Holder Schmieding blames the new Greek government for the downturn in its economic fortunes this year:
Berenberg Bank's Holder Schmieding on #Greece: "Rarely has a new government caused so much economic damage in such a short time."Berenberg Bank's Holder Schmieding on #Greece: "Rarely has a new government caused so much economic damage in such a short time."
11.46am BST11:4611.46am BST11:46
Pensioners hold anti-austerity rally in AthensPensioners hold anti-austerity rally in Athens
Over in Athens, pensioners have held an anti-austerity rally to demand pensions and healthcare benefits to be increased.Over in Athens, pensioners have held an anti-austerity rally to demand pensions and healthcare benefits to be increased.
The Kathimerini newspaper explains:The Kathimerini newspaper explains:
The elderly, who have faced several pension reductions since 2010, also demanded immediate subsidy of their pension funds and measures to restore damage caused by the 2012 haircut (PSI).The elderly, who have faced several pension reductions since 2010, also demanded immediate subsidy of their pension funds and measures to restore damage caused by the 2012 haircut (PSI).
The protest comes as eurozone officials prepare to hold their teleconference call to discuss the progress (or lack of it) towards an agreement on Greece’s economic reforms.The protest comes as eurozone officials prepare to hold their teleconference call to discuss the progress (or lack of it) towards an agreement on Greece’s economic reforms.
11.29am BST11:2911.29am BST11:29
Russia faces a lengthy recession, as the sanctions imposed over Ukraine weaken an economy already suffering from lower oil prices.Russia faces a lengthy recession, as the sanctions imposed over Ukraine weaken an economy already suffering from lower oil prices.
That’s according to the World Bank, which has just slashed its forecasts for the Russian economy. It now predicts that GDP will shrink by 3.8% in 2015, and another 0.3% in 2016.That’s according to the World Bank, which has just slashed its forecasts for the Russian economy. It now predicts that GDP will shrink by 3.8% in 2015, and another 0.3% in 2016.
In December, it expected a mere 0.7% contraction this year, and growth of 0.3% next year.In December, it expected a mere 0.7% contraction this year, and growth of 0.3% next year.
World Bank - says GDP in Russia to fall around -3.8% in 2015 assuming $53 oilWorld Bank - says GDP in Russia to fall around -3.8% in 2015 assuming $53 oil
11.14am BST11:1411.14am BST11:14
Ireland’s economy continues to bounce back from the lows plumbed during the financial crisis, when its banking collapse triggered a eurozone bailout and years of austerity.Ireland’s economy continues to bounce back from the lows plumbed during the financial crisis, when its banking collapse triggered a eurozone bailout and years of austerity.
Data just released show that Ireland’s unemployment rate has fallen to 10%, from 10.1%. The number of people claiming unemployment benefit fell by 4,700 to 350,600, down from 450,000 five years ago.Data just released show that Ireland’s unemployment rate has fallen to 10%, from 10.1%. The number of people claiming unemployment benefit fell by 4,700 to 350,600, down from 450,000 five years ago.
And in a further piece of good news, Ireland’s central bank has hiked its growth forecast for this year and 2016.And in a further piece of good news, Ireland’s central bank has hiked its growth forecast for this year and 2016.
#ireland Central Bank’s 2015 GDP Forecast Revised To +3.8% Vs +3.7%, 2016 Revised To +3.7% Vs 3.8% /via @livesquawk #euro#ireland Central Bank’s 2015 GDP Forecast Revised To +3.8% Vs +3.7%, 2016 Revised To +3.7% Vs 3.8% /via @livesquawk #euro
10.41am BST10:4110.41am BST10:41
Most European stock markets have defied expectations and rallied this morning, reversing yesterday’s slide.Most European stock markets have defied expectations and rallied this morning, reversing yesterday’s slide.
The news that eurozone factory growth strengthened last month helped to send shares up in Paris, Frankfurt, Milan and Rome.The news that eurozone factory growth strengthened last month helped to send shares up in Paris, Frankfurt, Milan and Rome.
And in London, the FTSE 100 has jumped by 67 points, or 1%, led by financial stocks - as Nick Fletcher reports here.And in London, the FTSE 100 has jumped by 67 points, or 1%, led by financial stocks - as Nick Fletcher reports here.
Related: FTSE rebounds as banks lead the wayRelated: FTSE rebounds as banks lead the way
Greece stock market, though, has been hit by the failure (so far) to reach a package of reforms with creditors. The ATG index has shed 1.2% this morning.Greece stock market, though, has been hit by the failure (so far) to reach a package of reforms with creditors. The ATG index has shed 1.2% this morning.
10.37am BST10:3710.37am BST10:37
Howard Archer, economist at IHS Global Insight, is also disappointed that Britain’s labour productivity fell back in the fourth quarter of 2014.Howard Archer, economist at IHS Global Insight, is also disappointed that Britain’s labour productivity fell back in the fourth quarter of 2014.
He writes:He writes:
Productivity currently remains limited compared to pre-crisis levels and the latest relapse will fuel concern that much of this has to do with structural factors. How productivity develops going forward will be a critical factor in how soon and how far the Bank of England raises interest rates.Productivity currently remains limited compared to pre-crisis levels and the latest relapse will fuel concern that much of this has to do with structural factors. How productivity develops going forward will be a critical factor in how soon and how far the Bank of England raises interest rates.
If productivity has taken a significant lasting hit, it means that the economy has less potential to grow without generating inflationary pressures and that interest rates will need to rise at an earlier stage.If productivity has taken a significant lasting hit, it means that the economy has less potential to grow without generating inflationary pressures and that interest rates will need to rise at an earlier stage.
10.13am BST10:1310.13am BST10:13
Back to Greece......and eurocrisis expert Yannis Koutsomitis is tweeting some interesting developments around its funding needs:Back to Greece......and eurocrisis expert Yannis Koutsomitis is tweeting some interesting developments around its funding needs:
#Greece Public Debt Agency head Papadopoulos to meet with @PIMCO execs today over next week's T-bill auction ~@EFSYNTAKTON#Greece Public Debt Agency head Papadopoulos to meet with @PIMCO execs today over next week's T-bill auction ~@EFSYNTAKTON
(T-bills are short-term government debt, which Greece has been issuing to keep itself afloat)(T-bills are short-term government debt, which Greece has been issuing to keep itself afloat)
#Greece | General Accounting Office notifies Gov't cash runs out May 15 http://t.co/OhDhBjiNGn /via @EFSYNTAKTON#Greece | General Accounting Office notifies Gov't cash runs out May 15 http://t.co/OhDhBjiNGn /via @EFSYNTAKTON
As we covered early this morning, Greek ministers are predicting a deal next week on economic reforms, that would unlock some aid from its creditors.As we covered early this morning, Greek ministers are predicting a deal next week on economic reforms, that would unlock some aid from its creditors.
Without a deal, Greece will struggle to meet an €450m IMF payment a week tomorrow, and then must pay workers salaries and pensions at the start of May.Without a deal, Greece will struggle to meet an €450m IMF payment a week tomorrow, and then must pay workers salaries and pensions at the start of May.
Updated at 10.23am BSTUpdated at 10.23am BST
10.10am BST10:1010.10am BST10:10
Vicky Redwood, UK economist at Capital Economics, is concerned that Britain’s productivity fell by another 0.2% in the last quarter:Vicky Redwood, UK economist at Capital Economics, is concerned that Britain’s productivity fell by another 0.2% in the last quarter:
“This still isn’t great - productivity has still not even returned to its long-run average rate of about 2%, let alone recouped any of the shortfall relative to its pre-crisis trend.”“This still isn’t great - productivity has still not even returned to its long-run average rate of about 2%, let alone recouped any of the shortfall relative to its pre-crisis trend.”
10.08am BST10:0810.08am BST10:08
Britain’s persistently weak productivity gives another insight into the true state of the UK economy, as politicians trade blows ahead of May’s election.Britain’s persistently weak productivity gives another insight into the true state of the UK economy, as politicians trade blows ahead of May’s election.
Today’s ONS report shows that David Cameron has presided over an economy with the weakest productivity record of any government since the second world war, says economics editor Larry Elliott.Today’s ONS report shows that David Cameron has presided over an economy with the weakest productivity record of any government since the second world war, says economics editor Larry Elliott.
Yesterday we learned that growth had picked up during the last quarter, but that GDP per head was still lower than before the financial crisis.Yesterday we learned that growth had picked up during the last quarter, but that GDP per head was still lower than before the financial crisis.
If the UK economy was truly strengthening, surely labour force productivity would be increasing as firms invested in new equipment and pioneered better ways of working?If the UK economy was truly strengthening, surely labour force productivity would be increasing as firms invested in new equipment and pioneered better ways of working?
We're no more productive (q4 2014) than we were in 2007 (ONS): "the absence of productivity growth...is unprecedented in the post-war periodWe're no more productive (q4 2014) than we were in 2007 (ONS): "the absence of productivity growth...is unprecedented in the post-war period
If reducing corporation tax increases wages and investment, then why have real wages and productivity been taking a hammering?If reducing corporation tax increases wages and investment, then why have real wages and productivity been taking a hammering?
9.55am BST09:559.55am BST09:55
Britain's "unprecedented" weak productivity run continuesBritain's "unprecedented" weak productivity run continues
Despite the recovery, Britain’s economy still suffers from weak productivity.Despite the recovery, Britain’s economy still suffers from weak productivity.
Data just released by the Office for National Statistics shows that labour force productivity fell by 0.2% in the last three months of 2014.Data just released by the Office for National Statistics shows that labour force productivity fell by 0.2% in the last three months of 2014.
In simple terms, that means British employees actually generated slightly less economic activity for each hour they spent at work during the last three months of 2014.In simple terms, that means British employees actually generated slightly less economic activity for each hour they spent at work during the last three months of 2014.
The ONS says there was no improvement in productivity last year, and that the economy is still less productive than before the financial crisis.The ONS says there was no improvement in productivity last year, and that the economy is still less productive than before the financial crisis.
It says:It says:
The absence of productivity growth in the seven years since 2007 is unprecedented in the post-war period.The absence of productivity growth in the seven years since 2007 is unprecedented in the post-war period.
7 lean years of no productivity growth... Time for a biblical analogy?7 lean years of no productivity growth... Time for a biblical analogy?
Updated at 10.09am BSTUpdated at 10.09am BST
9.36am BST09:369.36am BST09:36
Eight-month high for UK manufacturing purchasing managers' index counters some of those slowdown fears: http://t.co/16fY2GkFMkEight-month high for UK manufacturing purchasing managers' index counters some of those slowdown fears: http://t.co/16fY2GkFMk
9.36am BST09:369.36am BST09:36
March was a good month for UK factories too -- the sector grew at its fastest rate in eight months.March was a good month for UK factories too -- the sector grew at its fastest rate in eight months.
The UK manufacturing PMI rose to 54.4 in March, up from 54.0 in February, thanks to strong domestic demand. Export orders picked up too, as the “bright start to the year” continues.The UK manufacturing PMI rose to 54.4 in March, up from 54.0 in February, thanks to strong domestic demand. Export orders picked up too, as the “bright start to the year” continues.
9.25am BST09:259.25am BST09:25
Political uncertainty hits Greek factoriesPolitical uncertainty hits Greek factories
Greece is not sharing in this revival in the eurozone economy -- its factory sector contracted again last month.Greece is not sharing in this revival in the eurozone economy -- its factory sector contracted again last month.
Greece’s manufacturers reported a third straight monthly drop in output in March, confirming that economic conditions have deteriorated since the country’s political upheaval began.Greece’s manufacturers reported a third straight monthly drop in output in March, confirming that economic conditions have deteriorated since the country’s political upheaval began.
Firms reported another drop in new orders, particularly from abroad, suggesting uncertainty over its bailout programme has hit confidence.Firms reported another drop in new orders, particularly from abroad, suggesting uncertainty over its bailout programme has hit confidence.
This pushed the Greek factory PMI, measuring activity across the sector, below the 50-point mark separating expansion from contraction for the seventh month running.This pushed the Greek factory PMI, measuring activity across the sector, below the 50-point mark separating expansion from contraction for the seventh month running.
Markit explains:Markit explains:
Weighing on overall inflows of new business was a sharp and accelerated decrease in new export orders, which panel members linked in part to foreign clients being deterred by political uncertainty in Greece.Weighing on overall inflows of new business was a sharp and accelerated decrease in new export orders, which panel members linked in part to foreign clients being deterred by political uncertainty in Greece.
Economist Phil Smith warned that Greece’s recovery “looks to be on hold for now.”Economist Phil Smith warned that Greece’s recovery “looks to be on hold for now.”
9.13am BST09:139.13am BST09:13
Eurozone factory growth hits 10-month highEurozone factory growth hits 10-month high
The eurozone’s economic recovery has strengthened, as manufacturing activity across the region grew at the fastest pace since last May.The eurozone’s economic recovery has strengthened, as manufacturing activity across the region grew at the fastest pace since last May.
Growth accelerated in Germany, Spain, Italy and the Netherlands, as the European Central Bank’s quantitative easing programme stimulates demand and drives down the euro.Growth accelerated in Germany, Spain, Italy and the Netherlands, as the European Central Bank’s quantitative easing programme stimulates demand and drives down the euro.
Markit’s manufacturing PMI, just released, hit a 10-month high of 52.2 -- higher than that 51.9 estimated two weeks ago. And as already flagged up this morning, many firms reported they took on more staff to handle increased demand.Markit’s manufacturing PMI, just released, hit a 10-month high of 52.2 -- higher than that 51.9 estimated two weeks ago. And as already flagged up this morning, many firms reported they took on more staff to handle increased demand.
Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, says the eurozone economy is reviving, but there are black spots.Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, says the eurozone economy is reviving, but there are black spots.
“Producers are benefitting from the weaker euro, which has had the dual effect of boosting competitiveness in export markets as well as making competing imports more expensive in the home markets.“Producers are benefitting from the weaker euro, which has had the dual effect of boosting competitiveness in export markets as well as making competing imports more expensive in the home markets.
“New orders are consequently showing the best growth for nearly a year, and the fact that manufacturers are boosting their payroll numbers at the fastest rate for three-and-a half years indicates optimism that the upturn will be sustained in coming months.“New orders are consequently showing the best growth for nearly a year, and the fact that manufacturers are boosting their payroll numbers at the fastest rate for three-and-a half years indicates optimism that the upturn will be sustained in coming months.
“Rising demand is also helping firms and their suppliers to re-establish some pricing power. Factory input prices rose for the first time in seven months and selling prices were broadly stable, providing encouraging news that deflationary forces are easing.“Rising demand is also helping firms and their suppliers to re-establish some pricing power. Factory input prices rose for the first time in seven months and selling prices were broadly stable, providing encouraging news that deflationary forces are easing.
“This is still a fledgling recovery, however, and the overall rate of expansion remains only modest. Importantly, manufacturing is still in decline in France, Greece and Austria, acting as drags on the region’s revival.”“This is still a fledgling recovery, however, and the overall rate of expansion remains only modest. Importantly, manufacturing is still in decline in France, Greece and Austria, acting as drags on the region’s revival.”
8.58am BST08:588.58am BST08:58
Those French and German PMIs are both higher than the ‘flash’ readings two weeks ago, suggesting that conditions improved during March.Those French and German PMIs are both higher than the ‘flash’ readings two weeks ago, suggesting that conditions improved during March.
Upward revisions to final PMIs (Germany/France) suggest positive momentum continued in the past 10 days or so. #QEuphoria #QEboostUpward revisions to final PMIs (Germany/France) suggest positive momentum continued in the past 10 days or so. #QEuphoria #QEboost
8.57am BST08:578.57am BST08:57
Here comes Germany’s manufacturing PMI...Here comes Germany’s manufacturing PMI...
...and it’s another month of solid growth for factories in Europe’s largest economy....and it’s another month of solid growth for factories in Europe’s largest economy.
The German manufacturing PMI rose to 52.8 in March, up from 51.1, which shows tht faster growth in eleven months.The German manufacturing PMI rose to 52.8 in March, up from 51.1, which shows tht faster growth in eleven months.
8.52am BST08:528.52am BST08:52
France’s factory sector has shrunk again, but at least the pace of decline has slowed.France’s factory sector has shrunk again, but at least the pace of decline has slowed.
The French manufacturing PMI came in at 48.8 for March, up from 47.6 in February -- but still below the 50-point mark that splits expansion and contraction.The French manufacturing PMI came in at 48.8 for March, up from 47.6 in February -- but still below the 50-point mark that splits expansion and contraction.
France Manufacturing #PMI rises to 48.8 but still signals deteriorating business conditions http://t.co/bJEqHa6k3W http://t.co/6u8ZIS0WFpFrance Manufacturing #PMI rises to 48.8 but still signals deteriorating business conditions http://t.co/bJEqHa6k3W http://t.co/6u8ZIS0WFp
8.49am BST08:498.49am BST08:49
Finally some good economic news for #Italy As its manufacturing #PMI rises to 53.3 http://t.co/4I79ddcDIF #ECB #QE #EuroFinally some good economic news for #Italy As its manufacturing #PMI rises to 53.3 http://t.co/4I79ddcDIF #ECB #QE #Euro
8.49am BST08:498.49am BST08:49
Good news from Italy too -- factory output has hit an 11-month high last month.Good news from Italy too -- factory output has hit an 11-month high last month.
Data firm Markit reports that the Italian manufacturing PMI jumped to 53.3, from 51.9, showing that the sector expanded. Growth is “gathering momentum”, it says, with firms hiring staff at the fastest rate since February 2011.Data firm Markit reports that the Italian manufacturing PMI jumped to 53.3, from 51.9, showing that the sector expanded. Growth is “gathering momentum”, it says, with firms hiring staff at the fastest rate since February 2011.
Here’s the key points:Here’s the key points:
8.41am BST08:418.41am BST08:41
Spanish factory recovery acceleratesSpanish factory recovery accelerates
Spain’s economic recovery continues to pick up pace, as the weaker euro gives Spanish firms a boost.Spain’s economic recovery continues to pick up pace, as the weaker euro gives Spanish firms a boost.
The Spanish PMI jumped to 54.3 from 54.2, which is another month of solid growth.The Spanish PMI jumped to 54.3 from 54.2, which is another month of solid growth.
Crucially, firms hired staff at the fastest rate since June 2007.Crucially, firms hired staff at the fastest rate since June 2007.
And many reported that new business from abroad was boosted by the relative weakness of the euro, particularly against the US dollar.And many reported that new business from abroad was boosted by the relative weakness of the euro, particularly against the US dollar.
Andrew Harker, senior economist at Markit and author of the report, says the trend of “consistently solid growth” continued last month:Andrew Harker, senior economist at Markit and author of the report, says the trend of “consistently solid growth” continued last month:
The highlight from the latest survey was the strongest rise in employment since mid-2007, as the labour market continues to recover.The highlight from the latest survey was the strongest rise in employment since mid-2007, as the labour market continues to recover.
Meanwhile, the sharp reductions in input prices seen in the first two months of the year were not repeated at the end of Q1 as the weakness of the euro led to rises in the cost of imported items.”Meanwhile, the sharp reductions in input prices seen in the first two months of the year were not repeated at the end of Q1 as the weakness of the euro led to rises in the cost of imported items.”
8.34am BST08:348.34am BST08:34
Turkey’s factory sector has contracted at the fastest rate in almost six years.Turkey’s factory sector has contracted at the fastest rate in almost six years.
Output, new orders, and new export orders all declined, adding to concerns that its economy is slowing down. Firms reported “generally weak domestic and international market conditions”.Output, new orders, and new export orders all declined, adding to concerns that its economy is slowing down. Firms reported “generally weak domestic and international market conditions”.
Yesterday’s mysterious power cut, which left half the country without energy, won’t have helped -- many factories in the western city of Izmit weren’t able to work, for example.Yesterday’s mysterious power cut, which left half the country without energy, won’t have helped -- many factories in the western city of Izmit weren’t able to work, for example.
Turkish manufacturing downturn intensifies in March, #PMI at 48.0 (49.6 in Feb), lowest since April 2009 http://t.co/TZAzecfbofTurkish manufacturing downturn intensifies in March, #PMI at 48.0 (49.6 in Feb), lowest since April 2009 http://t.co/TZAzecfbof
8.18am BST08:188.18am BST08:18
Russia’s factory sector continued to contract last month.Russia’s factory sector continued to contract last month.
HSBC’s Russia Manufacturing PMI, measures activity in the sector, fell to 48.1 from 49.7. Any reading below 50 shows a drop in activity.HSBC’s Russia Manufacturing PMI, measures activity in the sector, fell to 48.1 from 49.7. Any reading below 50 shows a drop in activity.
The sanctions imposed on Russia over the Ukraine conflict may be biting, along with the impact of the lower oil price. Many firms reporting that conditions have deteriorated.The sanctions imposed on Russia over the Ukraine conflict may be biting, along with the impact of the lower oil price. Many firms reporting that conditions have deteriorated.
Paul Smith, Senior Economist at Markit, warned that some companies are struggling to get financing too:Paul Smith, Senior Economist at Markit, warned that some companies are struggling to get financing too:
“March’s survey data indicated that operating conditions remained challenging overall, with output, new orders and employment all posting modest falls. Access to working capital also remains a hurdle to overcome for a number of manufacturers.”“March’s survey data indicated that operating conditions remained challenging overall, with output, new orders and employment all posting modest falls. Access to working capital also remains a hurdle to overcome for a number of manufacturers.”
Updated at 8.23am BSTUpdated at 8.23am BST
8.09am BST08:098.09am BST08:09
Overnight, an official survey of the Chinese factory sector was a little stronger than expected in March, driving the Shanghai stock market to a new seven-year high.Overnight, an official survey of the Chinese factory sector was a little stronger than expected in March, driving the Shanghai stock market to a new seven-year high.
The official Chinese manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1 from 49.9, showing very marginal growth. But a rival survey was less optimistic, showing a drop in employment and new orders.The official Chinese manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1 from 49.9, showing very marginal growth. But a rival survey was less optimistic, showing a drop in employment and new orders.
More stimulus may still be needed to stop the country’s economy slowing. More here.More stimulus may still be needed to stop the country’s economy slowing. More here.
Overnight data from China - especially HSBC manufacturing survey - point to a further slowdown in growth.Overnight data from China - especially HSBC manufacturing survey - point to a further slowdown in growth.
Updated at 8.26am BSTUpdated at 8.26am BST
7.57am BST07:577.57am BST07:57
Greek minister: Deal before Orthodox EasterGreek minister: Deal before Orthodox Easter
With a deal before Western Easter looking very unlikely, Greece’s government has now declared that it will reach agreement with its lenders before Orthodox Easter (which falls on 12 April).With a deal before Western Easter looking very unlikely, Greece’s government has now declared that it will reach agreement with its lenders before Orthodox Easter (which falls on 12 April).
Economy Minister George Stathakis has just told Skai TV that the two sides will agree a package of reforms next week, saying:Economy Minister George Stathakis has just told Skai TV that the two sides will agree a package of reforms next week, saying:
“The agreement will close on (Greek Orthodox) Easter week.”“The agreement will close on (Greek Orthodox) Easter week.”
For that to happen, the Greek side will have to produce a credible, detailed programme of reforms. Some officials in Brussels have warned that the current plan is still too much of a ‘wish list’.For that to happen, the Greek side will have to produce a credible, detailed programme of reforms. Some officials in Brussels have warned that the current plan is still too much of a ‘wish list’.
And next week looks rather lively; with the IMF expecting a €450m repayment from Greece on Thursday, April 9th.And next week looks rather lively; with the IMF expecting a €450m repayment from Greece on Thursday, April 9th.
Stathakis also tried to placate critics in his own party, who oppose selling off state assets. He said the government still plans to hold a stake in the country’s largest port, Piraeus, rather than selling the whole thing.Stathakis also tried to placate critics in his own party, who oppose selling off state assets. He said the government still plans to hold a stake in the country’s largest port, Piraeus, rather than selling the whole thing.
“The idea that prevailed is that we will not proceed with a privatisation of the 67 percent stake, which would mean a full privatisation of Piraeus port. We are not discussing this.”“The idea that prevailed is that we will not proceed with a privatisation of the 67 percent stake, which would mean a full privatisation of Piraeus port. We are not discussing this.”
“We are trying to find some kind of joint venture.”“We are trying to find some kind of joint venture.”
(quotes via Reuters)(quotes via Reuters)
7.50am BST07:507.50am BST07:50
The agenda: Greek teleconference call, and euro PMIsThe agenda: Greek teleconference call, and euro PMIs
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.
With Greece’s negotiations with its creditors over economic reforms seemingly becalmed, eurozone finance officials will hold a teleconference call today to assess the state of play.With Greece’s negotiations with its creditors over economic reforms seemingly becalmed, eurozone finance officials will hold a teleconference call today to assess the state of play.
The euro working group will discuss the chances of a deal, following five days of talks in Brussels which ended yesterday.The euro working group will discuss the chances of a deal, following five days of talks in Brussels which ended yesterday.
Although the Athens side are making positive noises, there’s no indication yet that we’re close to a breakthrough that would release the bailout funds it desperately needs.Although the Athens side are making positive noises, there’s no indication yet that we’re close to a breakthrough that would release the bailout funds it desperately needs.
No wonder Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande were chivvying Greece to speed things up, at a press conference on Tuesday.No wonder Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande were chivvying Greece to speed things up, at a press conference on Tuesday.
Billionaire investor Warren Buffett waded into the issue last night, telling CNBC thatBillionaire investor Warren Buffett waded into the issue last night, telling CNBC that
“If it turns out the Greeks leave, that may not be a bad thing for the euro.“If it turns out the Greeks leave, that may not be a bad thing for the euro.
“If everybody learns that the rules mean something and if they come to general agreement about fiscal policy among members, or something of the sort, that they mean business, that could be a good thing.”“If everybody learns that the rules mean something and if they come to general agreement about fiscal policy among members, or something of the sort, that they mean business, that could be a good thing.”
The European Central Bank is also expected to ponder the Greek crisis today, to decide whether to continue providing emergency liquidity to the Greek banking sector.The European Central Bank is also expected to ponder the Greek crisis today, to decide whether to continue providing emergency liquidity to the Greek banking sector.
That support is effectively keeping Greek banks alive, as worried savers continue to withdraw fundsThat support is effectively keeping Greek banks alive, as worried savers continue to withdraw funds
The lack of progress in Greece is weighing on Europe’s stock markets; they’re expected to fall again today, adding to yesterday’s tumble.The lack of progress in Greece is weighing on Europe’s stock markets; they’re expected to fall again today, adding to yesterday’s tumble.
#FTSE expected to open around 20 points lower. European stock index futures down on #Greece bailout uncertainty#FTSE expected to open around 20 points lower. European stock index futures down on #Greece bailout uncertainty
And there’s also lots of economic data due this morning, with Markit releasing its Purchasing Managers Index surveys of Europe’s manufacturing sectors. The PMIs are likely to show that eurozone factories continued to grow, but that France lagged behind again.And there’s also lots of economic data due this morning, with Markit releasing its Purchasing Managers Index surveys of Europe’s manufacturing sectors. The PMIs are likely to show that eurozone factories continued to grow, but that France lagged behind again.
Eu #daybook: manufacturing PMI data; ECB policy makers are said to be holding weekly review of Emergency Liquidity Assistance to Greece Wed.Eu #daybook: manufacturing PMI data; ECB policy makers are said to be holding weekly review of Emergency Liquidity Assistance to Greece Wed.
We’ll be tracking all the main events through the day...We’ll be tracking all the main events through the day...