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| Experts Unsure of Effect of Nuclear Deal on Iranian Politics | Experts Unsure of Effect of Nuclear Deal on Iranian Politics |
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| WASHINGTON — For Iran watchers, a possible deal to rein in the country’s nuclear program raises questions about its impact not only on arms control in the region but also on Tehran’s complex internal politics. | WASHINGTON — For Iran watchers, a possible deal to rein in the country’s nuclear program raises questions about its impact not only on arms control in the region but also on Tehran’s complex internal politics. |
| Could a deal, and an easing of sanctions, empower reformers who would like to see an end to the 35-year cold war with America? Or might it set up for blame those who supported the talks, including President Hassan Rouhani, if an agreement produces less in the way of sanctions relief or economic progress than they have promised? | Could a deal, and an easing of sanctions, empower reformers who would like to see an end to the 35-year cold war with America? Or might it set up for blame those who supported the talks, including President Hassan Rouhani, if an agreement produces less in the way of sanctions relief or economic progress than they have promised? |
| Both situations are plausible, according to a range of experts who agree only on the pivotal nature of the talks. | Both situations are plausible, according to a range of experts who agree only on the pivotal nature of the talks. |
| The deep divisions in American politics over the nuclear talks are precisely mirrored on the Iranian side, with hard-liners deeply skeptical about whether Iran is giving up too much. But Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has publicly expressed support for Iranian negotiators, quieting the skeptics and heartening Iranians who yearn for a breakthrough in their country’s relations with the world. | The deep divisions in American politics over the nuclear talks are precisely mirrored on the Iranian side, with hard-liners deeply skeptical about whether Iran is giving up too much. But Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has publicly expressed support for Iranian negotiators, quieting the skeptics and heartening Iranians who yearn for a breakthrough in their country’s relations with the world. |
| “After three decades of propagating a culture of defiance against the U.S., it will be curious to see whether and how Khamenei spins a nuclear compromise as an act of resistance, not compromise,” said Karim Sadjadpour, who studies Iran at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. | “After three decades of propagating a culture of defiance against the U.S., it will be curious to see whether and how Khamenei spins a nuclear compromise as an act of resistance, not compromise,” said Karim Sadjadpour, who studies Iran at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. |
| President Obama faces his own chorus of domestic critics on the concessions necessary for a nuclear deal. But he is deeply invested in the talks and their potential to change relations with Iran beyond the goal of disrupting its progress toward a nuclear weapon. | President Obama faces his own chorus of domestic critics on the concessions necessary for a nuclear deal. But he is deeply invested in the talks and their potential to change relations with Iran beyond the goal of disrupting its progress toward a nuclear weapon. |
| The intelligence agencies that advise the president are undoubtedly cautious in trying to forecast how an agreement might influence Iran’s internal balance of power, according to former intelligence officials. | The intelligence agencies that advise the president are undoubtedly cautious in trying to forecast how an agreement might influence Iran’s internal balance of power, according to former intelligence officials. |
| Paul R. Pillar, a former C.I.A. analyst on the Middle East, said the agency would be foolhardy to give the White House a specific prediction about political outcomes inside Iran. Even if American spies have somehow penetrated the Iranian power structure, Iranian leaders themselves have no certainty about how things will play out. | Paul R. Pillar, a former C.I.A. analyst on the Middle East, said the agency would be foolhardy to give the White House a specific prediction about political outcomes inside Iran. Even if American spies have somehow penetrated the Iranian power structure, Iranian leaders themselves have no certainty about how things will play out. |
| “Even if we had the coaches’ game plans for the N.C.A.A. basketball finals, we still wouldn’t know what the outcome would be,” Mr. Pillar said. | “Even if we had the coaches’ game plans for the N.C.A.A. basketball finals, we still wouldn’t know what the outcome would be,” Mr. Pillar said. |
| Independent scholars say that Iran and the United States have been at odds for so long that the political factions in Tehran have never had to react to a serious rapprochement. | Independent scholars say that Iran and the United States have been at odds for so long that the political factions in Tehran have never had to react to a serious rapprochement. |
| “Iran’s civil society, in contrast to its hard-liners, overwhelmingly wants this deal to happen,” Mr. Sadjadpour said. “But there are no guarantees that a nuclear deal will bring about greater political openness within Iran.” He said an internal crackdown after a deal is reached is just as likely, if hard-liners want “to signal to people that external flexibility doesn’t signal internal weakness.” | “Iran’s civil society, in contrast to its hard-liners, overwhelmingly wants this deal to happen,” Mr. Sadjadpour said. “But there are no guarantees that a nuclear deal will bring about greater political openness within Iran.” He said an internal crackdown after a deal is reached is just as likely, if hard-liners want “to signal to people that external flexibility doesn’t signal internal weakness.” |
| Mr. Sadjadpour said that Ayatollah Khamenei would be quick to blame Mr. Rouhani if a deal did not produce sufficient sanctions relief to be felt by most people. The supreme leader, he said, had “undermined and ultimately emasculated every president he’s worked with” to protect himself and the regime. “After 26 years in power it’s doubtful that he will take a different approach toward Rouhani,” he said. | Mr. Sadjadpour said that Ayatollah Khamenei would be quick to blame Mr. Rouhani if a deal did not produce sufficient sanctions relief to be felt by most people. The supreme leader, he said, had “undermined and ultimately emasculated every president he’s worked with” to protect himself and the regime. “After 26 years in power it’s doubtful that he will take a different approach toward Rouhani,” he said. |
| Trita Parsi, president of the National Iranian American Council and an outspoken advocate for improved relations with Tehran, struck a more optimistic note, suggesting that an agreement could be a watershed in internal Iranian affairs. | Trita Parsi, president of the National Iranian American Council and an outspoken advocate for improved relations with Tehran, struck a more optimistic note, suggesting that an agreement could be a watershed in internal Iranian affairs. |
| “I think in many ways this is going to be decisive as to who defines Iran for the coming decades,” he said after flying back to Washington on Wednesday from Lausanne, Switzerland, where he was monitoring the talks. “If there’s a good deal, and sanctions are lifted and it boosts the Iranian economy, it will show that the moderates can actually get something done.” | “I think in many ways this is going to be decisive as to who defines Iran for the coming decades,” he said after flying back to Washington on Wednesday from Lausanne, Switzerland, where he was monitoring the talks. “If there’s a good deal, and sanctions are lifted and it boosts the Iranian economy, it will show that the moderates can actually get something done.” |
| Mr. Parsi said that Mr. Rouhani, who took office in August 2013, had been given an extended honeymoon by most Iranians, despite economic stress and other problems, because they prefer his style to that of his more bombastic and divisive predecessor, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. “They lived through eight years of the alternative, and they know they don’t like that,” he said. | Mr. Parsi said that Mr. Rouhani, who took office in August 2013, had been given an extended honeymoon by most Iranians, despite economic stress and other problems, because they prefer his style to that of his more bombastic and divisive predecessor, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. “They lived through eight years of the alternative, and they know they don’t like that,” he said. |
| Gary G. Sick, a former National Security Council official and now Columbia University scholar who has studied Iran for more than four decades, said that Iran’s leaders would place great weight on presenting a deal as a victory, even if they made major concessions in the fine print. | Gary G. Sick, a former National Security Council official and now Columbia University scholar who has studied Iran for more than four decades, said that Iran’s leaders would place great weight on presenting a deal as a victory, even if they made major concessions in the fine print. |
| “They need something to hold up to the populace and say, ‘We’ve stood by our rights and our dignity,’ ” he said. | |
| That is in part because Iranian hard-liners, and particularly the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, will be looking for ways to attack and undercut any deal, he said. The Revolutionary Guards “thrive on hostile relations with the U.S., and benefit hugely from sanctions, which allow them to control smuggling,” he said. | That is in part because Iranian hard-liners, and particularly the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, will be looking for ways to attack and undercut any deal, he said. The Revolutionary Guards “thrive on hostile relations with the U.S., and benefit hugely from sanctions, which allow them to control smuggling,” he said. |
| Mr. Sick says he believes that a deal could begin a process of epochal change inside Iran. | Mr. Sick says he believes that a deal could begin a process of epochal change inside Iran. |
| “If the sanctions are lifted, foreign companies come back in, the natural entrepreneurialism of Iranians is unleashed,” he said, then Iran’s political system will inevitably change, if slowly. | “If the sanctions are lifted, foreign companies come back in, the natural entrepreneurialism of Iranians is unleashed,” he said, then Iran’s political system will inevitably change, if slowly. |
| “If you want regime change in Iran — meaning, changing the way the regime operates — this kind of agreement is the best way to achieve that goal,” he said. | “If you want regime change in Iran — meaning, changing the way the regime operates — this kind of agreement is the best way to achieve that goal,” he said. |
| Since the Islamic regime took power, one side or the other has made a move to improve relations on at least seven occasions, said David B. Crist, a Defense Department historian and author of “The Twilight War,” a 2012 book on American-Iranian relations. Every attempt ended in failure, he said. | Since the Islamic regime took power, one side or the other has made a move to improve relations on at least seven occasions, said David B. Crist, a Defense Department historian and author of “The Twilight War,” a 2012 book on American-Iranian relations. Every attempt ended in failure, he said. |
| Against that history, a nuclear deal would be “uncharted territory,” Mr. Crist said. At least initially, he said, a deal would enhance the power of Mr. Rouhani and the Iranian pragmatists, and it would probably lead to permanent diplomatic engagement with the United States. | Against that history, a nuclear deal would be “uncharted territory,” Mr. Crist said. At least initially, he said, a deal would enhance the power of Mr. Rouhani and the Iranian pragmatists, and it would probably lead to permanent diplomatic engagement with the United States. |
| “The flip side of that is the danger of too much engagement, from an Iranian point of view,” he said. “This corrupting influence of the West — the Miley Cyrus effect, if you will — would be seen as undermining Iranian youth. And that could prompt a crackdown domestically.” | “The flip side of that is the danger of too much engagement, from an Iranian point of view,” he said. “This corrupting influence of the West — the Miley Cyrus effect, if you will — would be seen as undermining Iranian youth. And that could prompt a crackdown domestically.” |