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| Election 2015 live blog: Osborne pledges 80s-style boom for first-time buyers | Election 2015 live blog: Osborne pledges 80s-style boom for first-time buyers |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 10.14am BST10:14 | |
| The big political interview of the morning is George Osborne on Murnaghan at about 10.30am. | |
| But before then, we’ve got senior Lib Dem politician David Laws rejecting the idea that his party needs some time out of coalition to recharge its batteries - a suggestion made by former Liberal leader Lord Steel. | |
| He told the BBC Radio Five Live’s Pienaar’s Politics: “The party wants to be a serious player in national politics.” | |
| Laws also said the Conservatives have shown “unbelievable cheek” in taking credit for rises in the personal tax allowance: “There hasn’t been a single budget or Autumn Statement in this parliament where the prime minister or the chancellor have ever made this a Conservative ask.” | |
| He added the Liberal Democrats would “go far faster than the existing trajectory for increasing the personal tax allowance” and would ensure that when the personal tax allowance rises, “upper rate taxpayers gain as well”. | |
| 10.05am BST10:05 | |
| Meanwhile, the two national polls published today do not seem to take us anywhere very new. | |
| YouGov for the Sunday Times showed the Conservatives overtaking Labour to move into a one point lead by 34% to 33%. | |
| But the latest Opinium/Observer poll put both Labour and the Conservatives on 33%. | |
| Will anything break the stalemate now? | |
| 10.00am BST10:00 | |
| The mysterious case of the South Thanet ComRes poll is really very interesting. | |
| It is reported in the Mail on Sunday that it was commissioned by Ukip donor Arron Banks and shows the Tories one point ahead of Labour on 31%, Ukip on 30%, and Labour on 29%. | |
| This is significantly different from the Survation poll in February paid for by Alan Bown, which showed Farage 11 points ahead on 38.6%, Labour on 27.6%, and the Conservatives on 26.6%. | |
| A previous poll by Lord Ashcroft from November is more in line with the ComRes one. This had the Tories on 33%, Ukip on 32% and Labour on 26%. | |
| All of this matters because Farage’s political career - and potentially the future of Ukip - rests on whether he wins South Thanet after multiple previous attempts to become an MP. He has said he will resign if he fails. | |
| Ukip is quietly confident he will win the seat. But they are also keen to confuse potential tactical voters about who is in second place in the seat. Most seat-watchers think the Tories are doing better than Labour, but the Survation poll called this assumption into question. This makes it tricky for those who are voting to stop Farage to know where to put their anti-Ukip vote. | |
| The party is strongly denying Farage tried to suppress the poll, as claimed by the Mail on Sunday. They are also arguing the interpretation of the numbers is wrong, and Farage is seven points ahead, as they have been weighted according to past vote share. | |
| But if Farage was happy for it to be made public, it is difficult to explain how the numbers made their way into a Sunday newspaper rather than being released in the normal way. | |
| It may also tell us something interesting about relations between Farage and Banks, who pledged to give £1m to the campaign last October but has given most of his support in “consultancy” rather than hard cash. | |
| Updated at 10.02am BST | |
| 9.28am BST09:28 | 9.28am BST09:28 |
| There’s also a few comment pieces that are worth a look before the Sunday broadcast shows begin with Sky’s Murnaghan at 10am. | There’s also a few comment pieces that are worth a look before the Sunday broadcast shows begin with Sky’s Murnaghan at 10am. |
| Gordon Brown’s former spinner Damian McBride, who resigned over a plot to smear Tories, writes in the Sunday Times about how Cameron is making empty promises. | Gordon Brown’s former spinner Damian McBride, who resigned over a plot to smear Tories, writes in the Sunday Times about how Cameron is making empty promises. |
| It dawned on me that we are witnessing something very strange at this election: a total reversal in the roles of incumbent versus challenger.Usually, it is the opposition that promises the unaffordable, unachievable or plain impossible, hoping it will be enough to get them elected, after which they can declare that – due to the wretched mess or ill-considered notes they have discovered on taking office – those promises may be rather difficult to deliver.Incumbent governments do not have that luxury. They cannot blame the same mess twice; not if they’ve had one full term in office to work out what can realistically be achieved in the next. So their pledges tend to be more careful, costed and credible, unlike the charlatans on the other side.Now we come to 2015, where we might expect an incumbent Tory Prime Minister chastened by missed targets and broken promises to become responsible and realistic in what he pledges to do next time round. Not a bit of it.This is no manifesto we are promised by David Cameron; it is a latter-day Book of Miracles: the ‘tens of thousands’ migration target will be met after all; the deficit will be erased within four years. | It dawned on me that we are witnessing something very strange at this election: a total reversal in the roles of incumbent versus challenger.Usually, it is the opposition that promises the unaffordable, unachievable or plain impossible, hoping it will be enough to get them elected, after which they can declare that – due to the wretched mess or ill-considered notes they have discovered on taking office – those promises may be rather difficult to deliver.Incumbent governments do not have that luxury. They cannot blame the same mess twice; not if they’ve had one full term in office to work out what can realistically be achieved in the next. So their pledges tend to be more careful, costed and credible, unlike the charlatans on the other side.Now we come to 2015, where we might expect an incumbent Tory Prime Minister chastened by missed targets and broken promises to become responsible and realistic in what he pledges to do next time round. Not a bit of it.This is no manifesto we are promised by David Cameron; it is a latter-day Book of Miracles: the ‘tens of thousands’ migration target will be met after all; the deficit will be erased within four years. |
| Andrew Rawnsley in the Observer is also sharp about how David Cameron and Ed Miliband are not passing the voters’ “smell test”. | Andrew Rawnsley in the Observer is also sharp about how David Cameron and Ed Miliband are not passing the voters’ “smell test”. |
| As they stood on the stage on Thursday night, I looked at Mr Cameron and Mr Miliband as these leaders of the former giants of British politics were forced to compete with the smaller parties. I wondered if either asked himself: how did it come to this? What am I doing scrapping for airtime with a Welsh nationalist and a Green who aren’t even MPs and a Ukip leader and a Scottish Nationalist who have never won election to Westminster either? The answer to the question comes in many parts, but central to it is that neither of the big two have overcomes their negatives. Neither passes the impressionistic voter’s smell test. | As they stood on the stage on Thursday night, I looked at Mr Cameron and Mr Miliband as these leaders of the former giants of British politics were forced to compete with the smaller parties. I wondered if either asked himself: how did it come to this? What am I doing scrapping for airtime with a Welsh nationalist and a Green who aren’t even MPs and a Ukip leader and a Scottish Nationalist who have never won election to Westminster either? The answer to the question comes in many parts, but central to it is that neither of the big two have overcomes their negatives. Neither passes the impressionistic voter’s smell test. |
| 9.21am BST09:21 | 9.21am BST09:21 |
| Morning briefing | Morning briefing |
| Good morning and welcome to the Easter Sunday edition of the Guardian’s live election campaign blogs. | Good morning and welcome to the Easter Sunday edition of the Guardian’s live election campaign blogs. |
| Every day until the UK goes to the polls on 7 May, are live blogging to bring you the latest updates on the campaign. | Every day until the UK goes to the polls on 7 May, are live blogging to bring you the latest updates on the campaign. |
| I’m Rowena Mason, a political correspondent, taking you through the best news of the day. Email me at rowena.mason@guardian.co.uk, tweet me @rowenamason, or do please leave a comment below the line. | I’m Rowena Mason, a political correspondent, taking you through the best news of the day. Email me at rowena.mason@guardian.co.uk, tweet me @rowenamason, or do please leave a comment below the line. |
| The big picture | The big picture |
| It’s only just over a month to go now until the election but the polls are still deadlocked, with the Tories and Labour pretty much neck-and-neck on about 33 or 34. It seems neither side has had an electoral breakthough from the leaders’ TV debate. | It’s only just over a month to go now until the election but the polls are still deadlocked, with the Tories and Labour pretty much neck-and-neck on about 33 or 34. It seems neither side has had an electoral breakthough from the leaders’ TV debate. |
| Instead it is SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon dominating the headlines, after her strong performance in the debate and the leaked Whitehall memo suggesting she would prefer Cameron as PM. | Instead it is SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon dominating the headlines, after her strong performance in the debate and the leaked Whitehall memo suggesting she would prefer Cameron as PM. |
| She has written in the Observer denying the memo is true in the strongest terms and saying she is ready to work with Labour on an anti-austerity pact. | She has written in the Observer denying the memo is true in the strongest terms and saying she is ready to work with Labour on an anti-austerity pact. |
| There is also now a leak inquiry under way ordered by Britain’s most senior civil servant Sir Jeremy Heywood about how the memo got into the public domain. | There is also now a leak inquiry under way ordered by Britain’s most senior civil servant Sir Jeremy Heywood about how the memo got into the public domain. |
| You should also know | You should also know |
| Miliband is still coming under heavy fire from the right-wing newspapers, with the Sun on Sunday splashing on leaked notes from his television debate appearance in which he characterised himself as a “happy warrior”. His defenders say there is nothing too embarrassing in there and surely all the leaders are allowed to prepare. | Miliband is still coming under heavy fire from the right-wing newspapers, with the Sun on Sunday splashing on leaked notes from his television debate appearance in which he characterised himself as a “happy warrior”. His defenders say there is nothing too embarrassing in there and surely all the leaders are allowed to prepare. |
| The Conservatives meanwhile get an easy ride in the press, with the Sunday Telegraph splashing on George Osborne’s plans for a “housing revolution” in which he sets an ambition to have 2.4m first time buyers in the next parliament. | The Conservatives meanwhile get an easy ride in the press, with the Sunday Telegraph splashing on George Osborne’s plans for a “housing revolution” in which he sets an ambition to have 2.4m first time buyers in the next parliament. |
| The Sunday Times splashes on a claim that the Conservatives are now the “party of the workers” after a YouGov poll showed people think the Conservatives are best for employees of big firms but not small ones. | The Sunday Times splashes on a claim that the Conservatives are now the “party of the workers” after a YouGov poll showed people think the Conservatives are best for employees of big firms but not small ones. |
| Farage is under pressure in his battle to win South Thanet and remain leader of Ukip, as well as seeing the party’s vote share being squeezed nationally. He is now also facing claims in the Mail on Sunday that Ukip suppressed a poll of South Thanet commmissioned by donor Arron Banks that shows him trailing the Tories by a point. Ukip claim the numbers actually show Farage ahead when he is named as a candidate and take issue with the weighting of the poll on past vote share. | Farage is under pressure in his battle to win South Thanet and remain leader of Ukip, as well as seeing the party’s vote share being squeezed nationally. He is now also facing claims in the Mail on Sunday that Ukip suppressed a poll of South Thanet commmissioned by donor Arron Banks that shows him trailing the Tories by a point. Ukip claim the numbers actually show Farage ahead when he is named as a candidate and take issue with the weighting of the poll on past vote share. |
| Diary | Diary |
| Two of the big political shows - the BBC’s Andrew Marr Show and the Daily Politics - are off air for Easter. But Sky News’s Murnaghan and Radio Five Live’s Pienaar’s Politics are marching on regardless with a packed schedule: | Two of the big political shows - the BBC’s Andrew Marr Show and the Daily Politics - are off air for Easter. But Sky News’s Murnaghan and Radio Five Live’s Pienaar’s Politics are marching on regardless with a packed schedule: |
| 10am George Osborne, Chris Leslie, Tim Farron and Patrick O’Flynn on Sky’s Murnaghan | 10am George Osborne, Chris Leslie, Tim Farron and Patrick O’Flynn on Sky’s Murnaghan |
| 10am Chuka Umunna and David Laws on BBC Radio Five Live’s Pienaar’s PoliticsAlso expect some politicians to “do God” with Easter messages for the country. | 10am Chuka Umunna and David Laws on BBC Radio Five Live’s Pienaar’s PoliticsAlso expect some politicians to “do God” with Easter messages for the country. |
| Read these | Read these |
| The politicians appear to be frantically displaying their human sides in this weekend’s papers. You need to read: | The politicians appear to be frantically displaying their human sides in this weekend’s papers. You need to read: |
| Samantha Cameron in the Mail on Sunday, who is pictured on the front page next to a picture of her daughter Florence sitting in the prime minister’s red box. She says the strain of looking after their disabled son Ivan, who died aged six in 2009, brought them to breaking point. | Samantha Cameron in the Mail on Sunday, who is pictured on the front page next to a picture of her daughter Florence sitting in the prime minister’s red box. She says the strain of looking after their disabled son Ivan, who died aged six in 2009, brought them to breaking point. |
| David Cameron being interviewed by his second cousin Harry Mount in the Sunday Times, in which he refuses to discuss the Bullingdon Club. | David Cameron being interviewed by his second cousin Harry Mount in the Sunday Times, in which he refuses to discuss the Bullingdon Club. |
| George Osborne on the campaign trail in Nottinghamshire and Essex in the Sunday Telegraph, complete with pics of him looking quizzically at a kettle as he makes a cup of tea. He talks about David Cameron being his best friend and how he will allow himself to break his very strict diet to have one Easter egg. | George Osborne on the campaign trail in Nottinghamshire and Essex in the Sunday Telegraph, complete with pics of him looking quizzically at a kettle as he makes a cup of tea. He talks about David Cameron being his best friend and how he will allow himself to break his very strict diet to have one Easter egg. |
| Ed Miliband talks about abolishing the bedroom tax and doing an Easter egg hunt for his sons in the Sunday People, which also has an amusing sidebar “empty-chairing” Cameron over his refusal to give them an interview. | Ed Miliband talks about abolishing the bedroom tax and doing an Easter egg hunt for his sons in the Sunday People, which also has an amusing sidebar “empty-chairing” Cameron over his refusal to give them an interview. |
| Nigel Farage claims in the Sunday Times over a curry and bottle of merlot that up to six Tories would defect to Ukip if Cameron entered another coalition with the Liberal Democrats | Nigel Farage claims in the Sunday Times over a curry and bottle of merlot that up to six Tories would defect to Ukip if Cameron entered another coalition with the Liberal Democrats |
| Nicola Sturgeon writes in the Observer that she will work with Labour, dismissing the leaked Whitehall memo that said she would rather Cameron was prime minister. | Nicola Sturgeon writes in the Observer that she will work with Labour, dismissing the leaked Whitehall memo that said she would rather Cameron was prime minister. |
| The day in a tweet | The day in a tweet |
| Twitter dies of cute /vomit* *delete as applicable, depending on your perspective #Florence #RedBox #PhotoOp pic.twitter.com/jJ478lxyuy | Twitter dies of cute /vomit* *delete as applicable, depending on your perspective #Florence #RedBox #PhotoOp pic.twitter.com/jJ478lxyuy |
| If today were a poem, it would be… | If today were a poem, it would be… |
| The Character of the Happy Warrior by William Wordsworth. Ed Miliband was using a literary phrase that is well-worn in US politics... | The Character of the Happy Warrior by William Wordsworth. Ed Miliband was using a literary phrase that is well-worn in US politics... |
| The key story you’re missing when you’re election-obsessed | The key story you’re missing when you’re election-obsessed |
| President Uhuru Kenyatta of Kenya has vowed to respond in the severest terms to the al-Shabab attack on a university that has left 148 people dead. A student has been found hiding in a cupboard two days after the attack. | President Uhuru Kenyatta of Kenya has vowed to respond in the severest terms to the al-Shabab attack on a university that has left 148 people dead. A student has been found hiding in a cupboard two days after the attack. |
| Updated at 9.36am BST | Updated at 9.36am BST |