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| Clinton's Iowa problem: Democrats sceptical as troubling trends emerge | Clinton's Iowa problem: Democrats sceptical as troubling trends emerge |
| (11 days later) | |
| Hillary Clinton has some problems in Iowa – the crucial state she is due to visit shortly after announcing her presidential candidacy on Sunday and where her defeat to Barack Obama in 2008 led to the loss of her frontrunner status and the beginning of her rival’s journey to the White House. | Hillary Clinton has some problems in Iowa – the crucial state she is due to visit shortly after announcing her presidential candidacy on Sunday and where her defeat to Barack Obama in 2008 led to the loss of her frontrunner status and the beginning of her rival’s journey to the White House. |
| While the former secretary of state is yet to face any competitors as strong as Obama in the state where the first contest in the American presidential primary season is held, there are some troubling trends emerging. | While the former secretary of state is yet to face any competitors as strong as Obama in the state where the first contest in the American presidential primary season is held, there are some troubling trends emerging. |
| Related: Can Hillary Clinton overcome 'politics as usual' to bridge enthusiasm gap? | Related: Can Hillary Clinton overcome 'politics as usual' to bridge enthusiasm gap? |
| In both the Iowa counties that were her strongholds when she last ran to be Democratic candidate for president, as well as those where she did the worst, activists have expressed skepticism about her nascent campaign’s efforts so far. Although many who supported her in 2008 were still onboard, they said they had heard little from the Clinton camp. | In both the Iowa counties that were her strongholds when she last ran to be Democratic candidate for president, as well as those where she did the worst, activists have expressed skepticism about her nascent campaign’s efforts so far. Although many who supported her in 2008 were still onboard, they said they had heard little from the Clinton camp. |
| Linda Nelson, chair of the Democratic Party in Pottawattamie County, a prosperous county in south-west Iowa that includes the city of Council Bluffs and was Clinton’s No 2 county last time, said she had had one phone call from Clinton’s national campaign manager, Robby Mook, who reached out to her while driving across Iowa with Matt Paul, Clinton’s state director. She said Mook assured her that the Clinton campaign “will be all over the state and they will have an organization”. | |
| That phone call was more than other key activists had received prior to the formal launch of Clinton’s campaign. | That phone call was more than other key activists had received prior to the formal launch of Clinton’s campaign. |
| Connie Gronstal, a prominent Democratic activist in Pottawattamie County whose husband Mike is the majority leader in the Iowa state senate, considered the most powerful Democrat in the state, told the Guardian that Clinton and her allies had not excelled keeping in touch. | |
| She said: “I’ve gotten to know [vice-president and possible 2016 candidate] Joe Biden pretty well and he’s kept in touch. Some people are very good at that, and other people aren’t as good at that.” | She said: “I’ve gotten to know [vice-president and possible 2016 candidate] Joe Biden pretty well and he’s kept in touch. Some people are very good at that, and other people aren’t as good at that.” |
| Gronstal went on to note that “other people have either had the time or the inclination to keep those contacts and nurture them”. She said that was important because “it gave people the connection that someone still is there. I worked hard for this person and now I’m not hearing anything”. | Gronstal went on to note that “other people have either had the time or the inclination to keep those contacts and nurture them”. She said that was important because “it gave people the connection that someone still is there. I worked hard for this person and now I’m not hearing anything”. |
| She said she knew that while Iowa activists are “just there for this tiny bit, people want to feel they were important and connected”. Maybe, she suggested, it was a case of “out of sight, out of mind”. | She said she knew that while Iowa activists are “just there for this tiny bit, people want to feel they were important and connected”. Maybe, she suggested, it was a case of “out of sight, out of mind”. |
| In the liberal counties with colleges, where Clinton did worst in 2008, the former secretary of state seems unlikely to win over new supporters. | In the liberal counties with colleges, where Clinton did worst in 2008, the former secretary of state seems unlikely to win over new supporters. |
| In Johnson County, home to the University of Iowa – where Clinton barely cracked 20% in 2008 – Mike Carberry, a county supervisor, told the Guardian Clinton “still had a lot of support from a lot of people who really like her”. | In Johnson County, home to the University of Iowa – where Clinton barely cracked 20% in 2008 – Mike Carberry, a county supervisor, told the Guardian Clinton “still had a lot of support from a lot of people who really like her”. |
| Becky Schmitz, a county supervisor in Jefferson County, told the Guardian “a lot of us who supported her eight years ago are probably going to [do so] again”. | Becky Schmitz, a county supervisor in Jefferson County, told the Guardian “a lot of us who supported her eight years ago are probably going to [do so] again”. |
| But Don Smith, the former county chair in Poweshiek County, home to Grinnell College and Clinton’s second-worst county in 2008, told the Guardian: “I know of no one here who is enthusiastic about Hillary. The people here who were enthusiastic about her seven years ago tended to be middle-aged and older women who really wanted a woman president and identified with Clinton as the embodiment of their generation.” | But Don Smith, the former county chair in Poweshiek County, home to Grinnell College and Clinton’s second-worst county in 2008, told the Guardian: “I know of no one here who is enthusiastic about Hillary. The people here who were enthusiastic about her seven years ago tended to be middle-aged and older women who really wanted a woman president and identified with Clinton as the embodiment of their generation.” |
| Yet Smith did note that in Poweshiek County, much of Clinton’s poor performance last time was due to an episode in which her campaign was caught planting a question with a Grinnell College student at an event held one county over. The incident made national news and, in Smith’s opinion, “may have cut back on student support” for Clinton. It also may have deterred Clinton from even visiting the county before the caucuses, which Smith thought hurt her as well. | Yet Smith did note that in Poweshiek County, much of Clinton’s poor performance last time was due to an episode in which her campaign was caught planting a question with a Grinnell College student at an event held one county over. The incident made national news and, in Smith’s opinion, “may have cut back on student support” for Clinton. It also may have deterred Clinton from even visiting the county before the caucuses, which Smith thought hurt her as well. |
| For all such concerns, activists did agree on one thing: Clinton needs to show up in the state and actually engage in grassroots politics. And, while the former secretary of state will be in Iowa next week, she will have to do more than show up and just give a speech. | For all such concerns, activists did agree on one thing: Clinton needs to show up in the state and actually engage in grassroots politics. And, while the former secretary of state will be in Iowa next week, she will have to do more than show up and just give a speech. |
| As Carberry said: “Iowans almost have a rule that they want to go see a candidate speak about three times, shake hands, look ’em in the eye and ask them a question.” | As Carberry said: “Iowans almost have a rule that they want to go see a candidate speak about three times, shake hands, look ’em in the eye and ask them a question.” |
| The question is, will the former secretary of state will give them that opportunity. | The question is, will the former secretary of state will give them that opportunity. |