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Anyone but Salmond: campaign to stop former SNP leader gathers pace Anyone but Salmond: campaign to stop former SNP leader gathers pace
(about 9 hours later)
There was a heckle, and some booing. Nicola Sturgeon, Alex Salmond’s heir as first minister of Scotland, looked momentarily, but genuinely, uncomfortable last week when the audience for the televised Scottish leaders’ debates reacted grumpily to her refusal to rule out another referendum on independence.There was a heckle, and some booing. Nicola Sturgeon, Alex Salmond’s heir as first minister of Scotland, looked momentarily, but genuinely, uncomfortable last week when the audience for the televised Scottish leaders’ debates reacted grumpily to her refusal to rule out another referendum on independence.
According to Christine Jardine, the Liberal Democrat candidate hoping to deny Salmond a seat in Westminster, it was the moment the “silent majority” expressed that it was weary of the nationalist hubris.According to Christine Jardine, the Liberal Democrat candidate hoping to deny Salmond a seat in Westminster, it was the moment the “silent majority” expressed that it was weary of the nationalist hubris.
“They seem to have forgotten that they lost,” she said. “Alex Salmond said it was a ‘once in a generation’ vote. They aren’t keeping to their word. And people are annoyed. I could not have had a better fundraiser and recruiter than Salmond for my campaign. A lot of people say to me that they have never voted Liberal Democrat but they will this time. It is not going to plan for them”.“They seem to have forgotten that they lost,” she said. “Alex Salmond said it was a ‘once in a generation’ vote. They aren’t keeping to their word. And people are annoyed. I could not have had a better fundraiser and recruiter than Salmond for my campaign. A lot of people say to me that they have never voted Liberal Democrat but they will this time. It is not going to plan for them”.
Jardine was speaking on the campaign trail in the commuter town of Ellon, 15 miles north of Aberdeen and part of the Gordon constituency that Salmond hopes will be his route to influence at Westminster. But his path may not be smooth.Jardine was speaking on the campaign trail in the commuter town of Ellon, 15 miles north of Aberdeen and part of the Gordon constituency that Salmond hopes will be his route to influence at Westminster. But his path may not be smooth.
“We are reluctant to get too carried away,” said Sir Malcolm Bruce, the retiring MP for the constituency, campaigning alongside his intended successor. “But there is a mood and you can feel it.”“We are reluctant to get too carried away,” said Sir Malcolm Bruce, the retiring MP for the constituency, campaigning alongside his intended successor. “But there is a mood and you can feel it.”
The Liberal Democrats triumphed in Gordon in 2010 with a healthy majority of 7,000 (36% of the vote compared with the SNP’s 22%). Bruce has held this seat for 32 years as a respected local man who offered a palatable alternative to the Tories in this relatively affluent area prospering from North Sea oil.The Liberal Democrats triumphed in Gordon in 2010 with a healthy majority of 7,000 (36% of the vote compared with the SNP’s 22%). Bruce has held this seat for 32 years as a respected local man who offered a palatable alternative to the Tories in this relatively affluent area prospering from North Sea oil.
The latest Scotland-wide opinion polls have the SNP on 49%, Labour on 25% and the Lib Dems on a measly 4%. The only published poll to be done locally was in February, courtesy of the Tory peer Lord Ashcroft. That put the SNP in first place with 41% of the vote in standard voting intentions. The Lib Dems were in second place on 21% of the vote, ahead of Labour on 17% and the Conservatives on 15%.The latest Scotland-wide opinion polls have the SNP on 49%, Labour on 25% and the Lib Dems on a measly 4%. The only published poll to be done locally was in February, courtesy of the Tory peer Lord Ashcroft. That put the SNP in first place with 41% of the vote in standard voting intentions. The Lib Dems were in second place on 21% of the vote, ahead of Labour on 17% and the Conservatives on 15%.
However, when respondents were asked specifically about their constituency, the shares of the answers for the respondents rose for the Lib Dems and the SNP. A total of 43% of respondents said that they would vote SNP, while 26% said they planned to vote for the Lib Dems, putting the SNP 17% ahead – but also pretty definitively making this a two-horse race. However, when respondents were asked specifically about their constituency, the shares of the answers for the respondents rose for the Lib Dems and the SNP. A total of 43% of respondents said that they would vote SNP, while 26% said they planned to vote for the Lib Dems, putting the SNP well ahead – but also pretty definitively making this a two-horse race.
It is the nature of the straight fight between Salmond and the anti-Salmond candidate that has given the Lib Dems a hope, and a strategy. It is one of 100 seats into which the party is putting all of its resources. One SNP canvasser admitted to the Observer: “We think Salmond will win. But, actually, listening to what everyone says behind the scenes, it is going to be very close.” An SNP voter, in Ellon’s market square, Kathleen Moore, 59, said: “I don’t think he’ll walk it.”It is the nature of the straight fight between Salmond and the anti-Salmond candidate that has given the Lib Dems a hope, and a strategy. It is one of 100 seats into which the party is putting all of its resources. One SNP canvasser admitted to the Observer: “We think Salmond will win. But, actually, listening to what everyone says behind the scenes, it is going to be very close.” An SNP voter, in Ellon’s market square, Kathleen Moore, 59, said: “I don’t think he’ll walk it.”
Jardine’s leaflets could not make her plan of attack more clear. Under the headline “Just look what local people are saying about Christine Jardine”, is the testimony of a George Simpson. He writes: “I’ve always voted Labour, but the result is going to be close this time, and it’s important that we keep Alex Salmond out. That’s why I am backing Christine.”Jardine’s leaflets could not make her plan of attack more clear. Under the headline “Just look what local people are saying about Christine Jardine”, is the testimony of a George Simpson. He writes: “I’ve always voted Labour, but the result is going to be close this time, and it’s important that we keep Alex Salmond out. That’s why I am backing Christine.”
Another, Rob McIntyre, added: “I have always been a Conservative voter. This time I have made the conscious decision to vote tactically for Christine Jardine to keep Alex Salmond out.”Another, Rob McIntyre, added: “I have always been a Conservative voter. This time I have made the conscious decision to vote tactically for Christine Jardine to keep Alex Salmond out.”
The message is not subtle. The electorate in the Aberdeenshire council area rejected independence by over six to four, and Jardine wants those people; the ones who do not like Salmond’s style of politics; and those who treasure an MP focused on the nitty-gritty of local issues rather than high politics, to lend her their support.The message is not subtle. The electorate in the Aberdeenshire council area rejected independence by over six to four, and Jardine wants those people; the ones who do not like Salmond’s style of politics; and those who treasure an MP focused on the nitty-gritty of local issues rather than high politics, to lend her their support.
On Thursday night, clutching a copy of his memoirs, Salmond spoke to 100 local people in an echoing leisure centre in Newmachar, a village 10 miles north-west of Aberdeen. Talking over a bottle of dry cider later in the local hotel, Salmond dismissed Jardine’s hopes of victory.On Thursday night, clutching a copy of his memoirs, Salmond spoke to 100 local people in an echoing leisure centre in Newmachar, a village 10 miles north-west of Aberdeen. Talking over a bottle of dry cider later in the local hotel, Salmond dismissed Jardine’s hopes of victory.
Historically, campaigns focused solely on tactical voting have been neither “elevating nor successful”, he noted. “They won’t get Labour voters because they put the Tories in. And the problem [for them] with the Tory vote is that it’s pretty firm,” he said.Historically, campaigns focused solely on tactical voting have been neither “elevating nor successful”, he noted. “They won’t get Labour voters because they put the Tories in. And the problem [for them] with the Tory vote is that it’s pretty firm,” he said.
Leaning in, Salmond added with a half-smile: “The Liberal Democrats will get hammered in this constituency. Hammered.”Leaning in, Salmond added with a half-smile: “The Liberal Democrats will get hammered in this constituency. Hammered.”
What about Sturgeon’s hecklers? “We are not going to have 100% with us,” he shrugged. And he is certainly in no mood to assuage those uncomfortable with talk of another referendum. “We just had a Mori poll saying that 45% want a referendum in [the next] five years.”What about Sturgeon’s hecklers? “We are not going to have 100% with us,” he shrugged. And he is certainly in no mood to assuage those uncomfortable with talk of another referendum. “We just had a Mori poll saying that 45% want a referendum in [the next] five years.”
Sturgeon has suggested that a referendum could be called again if the UK were to vote to leave the EU. Are there any other less extreme events that could prompt what he used to suggest was a “once in a generation” vote to come again within a few years? “I can think of a number of things,” Salmond said.Sturgeon has suggested that a referendum could be called again if the UK were to vote to leave the EU. Are there any other less extreme events that could prompt what he used to suggest was a “once in a generation” vote to come again within a few years? “I can think of a number of things,” Salmond said.
If there is a fight to be had, he certainly appears ready to have it.If there is a fight to be had, he certainly appears ready to have it.