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China's export numbers miss expectations | China's export numbers miss expectations |
(about 1 month later) | |
China's monthly trade data shows exports fell in March from a year ago by 14.6% in yuan terms, compared to expectations for a rise of more than 8%. | |
Imports meanwhile fell 12.3% in yuan terms compared to forecasts for a fall of more than 11%. | Imports meanwhile fell 12.3% in yuan terms compared to forecasts for a fall of more than 11%. |
The numbers mean the country's monthly trade surplus has shrunk to its smallest in 13 months. | The numbers mean the country's monthly trade surplus has shrunk to its smallest in 13 months. |
China's economy grew by 7.4% in 2014, its weakest for almost 25 years. | China's economy grew by 7.4% in 2014, its weakest for almost 25 years. |
Analysts said recent indicators showed further signs the slowdown is continuing. | |
In US dollar terms, China's exports for the month fell 15%, while imports fell 12.7%. | |
Currency conversion factors based on US dollar and Chinese yuan movements over the last year mean some official numbers from the mainland are now reported in both currencies. | |
The official March data leaves the country with a monthly trade surplus of 18.16bn Chinese yuan ($2.92bn; £1.99bn). | |
In February, China's monthly trade surplus hit a record $60.6bn, as exports grew and imports slid back. | |
Unexpected | |
Analysts said the export numbers for March were a surprise. | |
"We can understand the imports fell because of falling imports of commodities, but exports fell so much, it was very much unexpected," said Shanghai-based analyst Nie Wen from Hwabao Trust. | |
However, he said one major reason for the falling exports was yuan appreciation. | |
Tony Nash, global vice president of Delta Economics, said the numbers took in the lunar new year period which was typically a bit volatile. | |
"We usually average February and March to get a true picture of what's actually happening," he told the BBC. | |
"If we look at February's 48% rise in exports and March's 15% fall in exports, we get a moving average of 16.7%, which is closer to where we've seen exports over the past two months." | |
But Mr Nash said Delta Economics was expecting a further slowdown going forward. | |
"In the second quarter, we'll look for an average of 9.9% year-on-year export growth and 11.7% import growth," he said. | |
"Trade will fall towards the back half of the year and we will look for average export growth in 2015 at 8.7% year-on-year, and import growth at 10.3% year-on-year. |
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