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China's economic growth at six-year low, making further stimulus more likely | |
(2 months later) | |
China’s economy grew at its slowest rate in six years in the first three months of this year, reinforcing bets that policymakers will be forced to introduce more stimulus measures. | |
Economic output grew 7% in the first quarter on an annual basis compared with a year ago, confirming expectations of slowing expansion. In the last quarter of 2014, the economy grew 7.3%. | |
On a quarterly basis, economic growth slowed to 1.3% between January and March after seasonal adjustments, the National Bureau of Statistics of China said on Wednesday, compared with growth of 1.5% in the previous three months. Analysts had expected quarterly growth of 1.4%. | |
Activity indicators, which are regarded as a more accurate picture of the economy, were all weaker in March than expected. Factory output climbed 5.6% in March from a year ago, below forecasts for a 6.9% gain. | |
Most tellingly, China’s power usage declined 3.7% compared with the previous year, the biggest drop since late 2008, when China’s economy was hit by the global financial crisis. | |
Yang Zhao of Nomura said: “The weaker Q1 GDP growth and much weaker than expected March activity data suggest that growth momentum remains weak, which calls for further policy easing. | |
Zhou Hao, economist at ANZ Bank in Shanghai, said the fall in power output was a sign that Beijing’s attempts to reorganise the economy were having an impact. | |
“Beijing’s decision to remove overcapacity from some industrial sectors has shown some effects on power output, but more importantly, electricity demand was capped by sluggish demand,” said | |
Fixed-asset investment, a vital driver of the economy, rose 13.5% compared with the same month last year. Investment in property eased to 8.5% as developers made clearing inventory their priority amid a housing glut. | |
Related: China's economy: hard landing or welcome rebalancing? | |
Retail sales expanded 10.2% compared with expectations for a 10.9% gain. | |
Figures earlier in the week showed unexpectedly weak trade data with imports and exports both plunging. | |
The disappointing data supported analysts’ predictions that China’s economic growth would slide to 7% this year, the lowest in a quarter of a century. The figure is still very high compared with developed countries but China’s leaders have set 7% as a minimum target if it is to create enough jobs for the population. |
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