Cameron’s cabinet is a Rubik’s cube no amount of reshuffling will solve
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Version 0 of 1. A new prime minister is never stronger than in the hours after he takes office. So the period after he kissed hands at lunchtime to form his new single-party Conservative majority government are David Cameron’s hours of greatest power. He owes nothing to anyone and his patronage is at its apogee. In this reshuffle he can reward, he can punish, he can uproot, he can promote and he can sideline. And no one can do anything to stop him. Cameron is also in the happy position of having around two dozen extra jobs to distribute about his 330 parliamentary colleagues this weekend, including four precious and highly coveted seats around the cabinet table. The end of the coalition means the posts that were filled by the Liberal Democrats are now Cameron’s to dispose of. One job that looks certain not to be filled in this government, however, is that of deputy prime minister. The DPM is the now-you-see-it-now-you-don’t job of Whitehall. Coalition required a DPM; majority government means the post is redundant. Cameron’s first ministerial announcements have been continuity appointments. George Osborne flirted seriously last year with the wish to become foreign secretary after the election, aiming to shape the UK’s negotiations with the EU, the issue that will dominate the first two years of this parliament before the promised referendum in late 2016 or early 2017. But the enduring centrality of the economy, and the unfinished issues around spending and deficit reduction – to say nothing of the slightly halting first-quarter GDP – mean Osborne returns to the Treasury. Now, though, he has been given the title that John Major dreamed up for Michael Heseltine in 1995, and which Peter Mandelson and William Hague held subsequently: first secretary of state, the prime minister’s effective deputy. That will give Osborne a handle on the EU issue. Theresa May almost certainly wanted to become foreign secretary too. But the combination of her ill-concealed leadership ambitions – which have consistently irritated Cameron and his advisers and caused some spitefulness from them towards May and her team – plus the demotion that would have been visited on Philip Hammond, if she had replaced him, means both May and Hammond have also been reappointed, as has Michael Fallon at defence. All of which means there will be no big promotion to one of the top four jobs for any of the cabinet ministers or ministers of state who are eyeing the big offices. People such as Sajid Javid, Liz Truss and Jeremy Hunt, and perhaps even Michael Gove, will have to await their moment in the coming hours, as will Boris Johnson. Cameron will be acutely conscious, as will his ministers, that he will bow out as leader at some stage in this parliament – probably in 2019, if he can control the succession process. That knowledge means every appointment is a move with internal party consequences. Cameron is at the height of his powers this weekend. The election triumph has given him fresh political and moral authority in his party for many months to come. But the problems will begin to crowd in sooner rather than later. |