Battleground Britain: gauging the nation's post-election mood
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Version 0 of 1. On Tuesday night in Thanet, our panel of undecided voters chatted about how they were feeling as the poll approached. I asked for a show of hands indicating positive or negative feelings given different outcomes. Who felt hopeful about the prospect of a Tory government? Kim, a 28-year-old student, angry about homelessness and offended by Ukip, surprised the room by slightly raising her hand. “I don’t feel hopeful about the Tories, of course,” she explained, “but I do feel sort of neutral, not negative. I think they’d do a good job on the economy and that would be better for me. I’m so worried about the future … although of course I don’t like their cuts.” Across the five constituencies in our Battleground Britain project, the voters’ mood was characterised by profound insecurity. Our voters’ indecision – which for some ran right up to the wire, with a quarter still unsure about how they would vote on the morning of polling day – was a contest between fear about the future of the economy and fear about the NHS and other public services. Voters’ stories about the NHS were vivid and heartfelt. Christine talked about her disabled daughter with such passion that, when Alex explained how he felt he might vote, he felt obliged to apologise to her. But the economy, despite few seeing much evidence of a recovery in their own lives, was ever present as a concern and, for most, the biggest reason for uncertainty about the future. Almost all told us that they felt they were “clinging on” to what they had, with no prospect of bettering themselves. Content analysis on our panelists’ unprompted “daily diaries”, sent in via their mobile apps, shows that the economy was mentioned four times as often as the next nearest policy area, the NHS. This turned out to be critical. Given the backdrop of uncertainty, our voters relied on a small number of touchstones. In Dewsbury, when asked what the Conservatives’ key policy was, they chorused “improving the economy” without skipping a beat. The same question about Labour was initially met with silence. Another touchstones was the relative competency of the leaders. Here, while Miliband surprised with his feisty campaigning, Cameron’s consistency won through, despite panelists’ cynicism about politicians and politics. The powerful anti-Westminster sentiment, palpable in all five constituencies from the outset, appeared to only be a major driver of voting behaviour in Scotland. It is notable that turnout was significantly higher there, as people seized the alternative. Related: Battleground Britain: 10 things we've learned about voting and the election Most of our voters had watched more of the campaign than they expected to, but it left them feeling more, not less, uncertain. Even if able to identify a desired outcome, they felt confused and worried about how to achieve it. They were also worried about the complexity of what they assumed might be a coalition. Voters south of the border felt very uneasy about the prospect of a Labour/SNP combination, and were as unmoved by Miliband’s reassurances as Scottish voters were infuriated. Many of our panelists recorded their response to the result on Friday morning. For our Scottish voters, their victory’s bittersweet: the elation they feel about the SNP landslide is tempered by the Conservatives’ majority, which they blame solely on the English voters. For the rest, even Labour voters, their surprise has quickly turned to acceptance. There is some sympathy for the Lib Dems, who are felt to have been harshly punished. There is also some relief. One commented: “I didn’t want a Tory government but I suppose the last five years haven’t been that bad,” and another: “I voted Labour, so I’m a little bit disappointed but I’m also a little bit relieved.” |