London Welsh just what doctor ordered as Saracens scramble for play-off spot

http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2015/may/14/london-welsh-saracens-exeter-the-breakdown

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The Premiership may want to rid themselves of clubs like London Welsh, neither bankrolled by the wealthy nor self-sufficient, but Saracens will be grateful for their presence this weekend as they look to scramble back into the top four in the final round of the regular season.

When Saracens comfortably defeated Leicester at Allianz Park a month ago, their place in the play-offs did not look in jeopardy, while the Tigers looked anything but title contenders. However, defeats to Northampton and Exeter, after a Champions Cup semi-final loss to Clermont Auvergne, have left last season’s beaten finalists on the verge of missing out on a top four finish for the first time since 2009.

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So London Welsh are what the rugby doctor would order, a club long destined to finish at the bottom of the table and whose relegation was confirmed this week when Bristol and Worcester won their Championship play-off semi-finals. Both clubs pass the entry criteria for the Premiership, so there will be no reprieve for the Exiles who have not won a match all season, picked up a mere point in the league, and who have conceded an average of 45 points in their 21 matches in the top flight, a figure slightly inflated by the 78 Saracens accumulated at Allianz Park in December.

Mark McCall, the Saracens’ director of rugby, this week wondered if the Sale players would be motivated at Exeter. It drew the sought-after response from his opposite number at the Sharks, Steve Diamond, who frothed with indignation, but if Sarries cannot beat a team marooned at the bottom by the required margin, they would only have themselves to blame for not making the top four.

Saracens will start the day in fifth, level with Exeter on points and victories but with an inferior points difference of three. Every league visitor to the Kassam Stadium, bar Newcastle, has left with a bonus point victory this season. The question is how many Saracens win by: one point would be enough if Leicester fail to beat Northampton at home.

The Saints, guaranteed a home draw in the play-offs, which would be against Exeter or Saracens if they lose to the Tigers, may choose to rest players ahead of the bigger battle(s) to come, as Saracens did on the final day at Welford Road last season when despite fielding a reserve team, they only lost by four points having had Justin Melck sent off.

Leicester had secured third place by then with little prospect of pipping Northampton for second. This Saturday, they will expect to have to win to avoid missing out on a top four finish for the first time since 2004 given where Saracens will be and Exeter enjoying home advantage over Sale. A simple victory would be enough for the Tigers, who are one point ahead of their two rivals having won one match more.

Not that Exeter will be assuming anything against Sale. Thirteen months ago, the fixture at Sandy Park produced 67 points, but the Chiefs only managed 12 of them. While Leicester and Saracens are regulars in the play-offs, Exeter have yet to secure a top-four finish in their relatively short Premiership existence.

Related: Big Premiership finish ahead for Exeter as Dave Ewers targets Saracens

They have doubled both Northampton and Saracens this season and beaten Bath in the Premiership for the first time. But for a blip either side of the new year, when they lost at home to Gloucester and away to London Irish, they would be pushing for home advantage. The Sharks have lost four of their last six league matches and have struggled away from home, but Exeter’s record victory over them, 43-6 in 2012, is unlikely to be enough.

Exeter will have to chase the game, even when they are in front, and while it is one thing to do it against London Welsh – who led by 12 points early on at Sandy Park in March – Sale have more attacking threats, even if this season they shipped 40 points at Saracens, 43 at Northampton, 41 at Wasps and 65 at Munster in the Champions Cup.

The Munster figure is the one Exeter will probably need, but the only teams they have let rip against this season are in the bottom half of the table. With all six matches kicking off at the same time on Saturday afternoon, news of what is happening elsewhere will be relayed. What happens at Welford Road is likely to be most relevant for the Chiefs.

Bath are top of the form table among the play-off contenders, having won their last five Premiership matches, ahead of Leicester on four, Northampton on three and a draw and Saracens and Exeter on three. Bath lost three in a row during the Six Nations, but the return of their England players has inspired a return to their early season form.

They look the best balanced of the top five now that Sam Burgess has settled into the back row. Northampton have led the table throughout, but wobbles in Europe exposed a crack Exeter ruthlessly exploited a month ago. The loss of Ben Foden and George North behind has reduced their counter-attacking threat and Stephen Myler, who has played in all bar one of Northampton’s league and European matches, needs to find a second wind.

After beating Leicester, Saracens had learned from the way the previous season had ended with defeat in two finals and were pacing themselves better. That may still prove to be so, but if they make the play-offs they will be away. While their recent league record against Bath is impressive, nine victories in 10, they have lost five out of six against Northampton.

Related: Leicester Tigers finally find their bite to keep top-four dreams alive

Leicester are the enigma. They have the best Premiership record of anyone over the last eight rounds – one defeat and seven victories – but as their captain Ben Youngs admitted after last Saturday’s victory over Wasps, they had until then struggled to find fluency, grinding their way to victory through the boot of Freddie Burns. It is as well for them that it will almost certainly not come down to points difference because despite winning 14 matches and losing six, they have only scored 24 more than they have conceded.

Leicester are always there, rain or shine. If Northampton’s director of rugby Jim Mallinder is minded to stand down some of his leading players, he will also be aware that the play-offs without the Tigers would be a safer place.

Anybody’s guess as Pro 12 comes to an end

The top four in the Guinness Pro 12 has been known for a few weeks, but the final round of matches in the regular season will determine the finishing order. Any of them could finish anywhere from first to fourth with Ospreys, Glasgow and Munster on 70 points and Ulster one behind on 69.

As fate would have it, Glasgow meet Ulster at Scotstoun Stadium but a simple victory may not be enough for the hosts to secure home advantage in the play-offs. Munster are at home to Newport Gwent Dragons, who have a holiday to look forward to, while Ospreys are at Connacht, who have an outside chance of qualifying for the Champions Cup but a more realistic one of securing a play-off for the final place in the tournament at Gloucester.

Munster have the best points difference of the four, but they have won one match fewer than Ospreys and Glasgow. With all the matches kicking off at 3pm, there will be a relaying of messages with home advantage so crucial and as the final will be staged at Ulster’s Kingspan Stadium, they have an extra incentive.

Glasgow, Munster and Ulster were in last season’s play-offs. Ospreys are the newcomers, replacing the champions Leinster who will finish their most disappointing season this decade some way behind in fifth. The Welsh regions have struggled in recent seasons, but after at last securing an agreement with the Welsh Rugby Union that works two ways, they are planning for the future with hope replacing fear.

Ospreys led the table for most of the first half of the season, the last side to lose its unbeaten record, and they have succeeded despite relying on a number of emerging players following the departure of a number of internationals, a decision forced on the region because of financial constraints.

The Scarlets will secure a place in the Champions Cup if they beat Treviso away, and while Cardiff Blues have struggled, their 10th-place finish meaning they will finish below all the other non-Italian teams in the league, the Dragons have shown signs of progress and made the semi-finals of the Challenge Cup.

Ospreys have won the league before, but succeeding this season, when many of their squad are little known outside Wales in contrast to the days when they had playesrs such as Justin Marshall, Marty Holah, Jerry Collins and Gavin Henson on their books, would mean even more.

They are finishing the regular season strongly, unbeaten in the Pro 12 since losing at Glasgow during he Six Nations in February and if they have played both Italian teams in that run, they have also overcome Munster and Glasgow. They also have a core of experience and knowhow in Alun Wyn Jones, Dan Lydiate, Justin Tipuric, Rhys Webb and Dan Biggar. They may not be the favourites, but momentum is with them.

• This is an extract taken from The Breakdown, the Guardian’s weekly rugby union email. To subscribe visit this page, find ‘The Breakdown’ and follow the instructions.