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| Rafael Nadal’s poor form leading up to French Open leaves him exposed | Rafael Nadal’s poor form leading up to French Open leaves him exposed |
| (about 1 hour later) | |
| For the first time in Rafael Nadal’s long reign, Paris looks a decidedly unwelcoming place for its returning monarch. Everything and everyone, it seems, has it in for the Spaniard, who is reaching for his 10th French Open title, his sixth in a row, a sentence as odd to write as it is surreal to comprehend. | For the first time in Rafael Nadal’s long reign, Paris looks a decidedly unwelcoming place for its returning monarch. Everything and everyone, it seems, has it in for the Spaniard, who is reaching for his 10th French Open title, his sixth in a row, a sentence as odd to write as it is surreal to comprehend. |
| Nadal, some critics reckon, is about as steady on his throne as was Louis XVI more than 200 years ago. And only another victory will save him from the wrath of the mob, if you pay heed to those clicking their knitting needles in the shadows of the guillotine. | Nadal, some critics reckon, is about as steady on his throne as was Louis XVI more than 200 years ago. And only another victory will save him from the wrath of the mob, if you pay heed to those clicking their knitting needles in the shadows of the guillotine. |
| It is the Fourth rather than the Third Estate who have their hands on the dangling blade in Paris now. A headline in USA Today this week asked the seemingly absurd question: “Why do the French hate Rafael Nadal?” One theory posited is that the acrimony dates to Nadal’s only defeat in their tournament, to Robin Soderling in 2009, when the champion’s uncle and coach, Toni, delivered the capital’s citizens a stinging rebuke. “There is only one set of supporters worse than the French, and that is the Parisians,” he told the Spanish radio station Cadena Ser after what was then the biggest shock in tennis. | It is the Fourth rather than the Third Estate who have their hands on the dangling blade in Paris now. A headline in USA Today this week asked the seemingly absurd question: “Why do the French hate Rafael Nadal?” One theory posited is that the acrimony dates to Nadal’s only defeat in their tournament, to Robin Soderling in 2009, when the champion’s uncle and coach, Toni, delivered the capital’s citizens a stinging rebuke. “There is only one set of supporters worse than the French, and that is the Parisians,” he told the Spanish radio station Cadena Ser after what was then the biggest shock in tennis. |
| He continued: “They say it themselves, and it’s true: the Parisian crowd is pretty stupid. The French don’t like it when a Spaniard wins. Wanting someone to lose is a slightly conceited way of amusing yourself. They show the stupidity of people who think themselves superior.” | He continued: “They say it themselves, and it’s true: the Parisian crowd is pretty stupid. The French don’t like it when a Spaniard wins. Wanting someone to lose is a slightly conceited way of amusing yourself. They show the stupidity of people who think themselves superior.” |
| Nadal remarked separately at the time: “This tournament is so important, such a beautiful tournament for me … Well, that’s the way it is … But I wish when I’m back they can support me a bit more in key moments.” | |
| Fat chance, señor. Layered over the simmering Gallic ambivalence is the insinuation by Yannick Noah – talking to the French media a few years ago – that Spanish athletes generally had to be suspect because of the spectre of performance-enhancing drugs. It was an unsubstantiated slur and one Nadal has never forgiven. Had Noah’s compatriot Jo-Wilfried Tsonga reached the final two years ago, Nadal let it be known he would not be happy for Noah to present La Coupe des Mousquetaires. | |
| This time, other daggers are poised. Nadal hits town in the worst pre-French form of his career, loser of four European clay tournaments, as well as one in South America, an unprecedented situation for the player regarded as the all-time master of the red dirt. (Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray are 10-0 on clay this year; Nadal is 17-5). It’s all going horribly wrong for the Mallorcan – which might just be the spur that inspires him to dig into his enormous store of grit. | This time, other daggers are poised. Nadal hits town in the worst pre-French form of his career, loser of four European clay tournaments, as well as one in South America, an unprecedented situation for the player regarded as the all-time master of the red dirt. (Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray are 10-0 on clay this year; Nadal is 17-5). It’s all going horribly wrong for the Mallorcan – which might just be the spur that inspires him to dig into his enormous store of grit. |
| The two-times French winner Jim Courier, who makes Djokovic favourite for the tournament, ahead of Kei Nishikori, does not see much sunshine ahead for Nadal. “There are now guys in the locker room who see him as an opportunity rather than an immovable obstacle,” he said. | |
| So deep is the gloom around Nadal that Patrick McEnroe – who won his only slam title here, the doubles alongside Jim Grabb in 1989 – even fears he might quit tennis if an early defeat is followed by a further tumble down the rankings. Of the scores of prognoses conducted recently over the still breathing corpse of the eminent champion, that one is, by a distance, the most alarming. And many would say alarmist. | So deep is the gloom around Nadal that Patrick McEnroe – who won his only slam title here, the doubles alongside Jim Grabb in 1989 – even fears he might quit tennis if an early defeat is followed by a further tumble down the rankings. Of the scores of prognoses conducted recently over the still breathing corpse of the eminent champion, that one is, by a distance, the most alarming. And many would say alarmist. |
| Surely the 28-year-old, with no apparent physical ailment, the winner of nine titles and 66 of 67 matches at Roland Garros over the past decade, can find a way to lift himself from the torpor that has gripped his play since returning from surgery last year. Yet McEnroe – in conversation last week with his ESPN colleagues Chris Evert and Mary Joe Fernandez – said: “This could be a real crossroads tournament for Nadal. I don’t see him sticking around if he drops out of the top 10, if he loses relatively early, which is possible. It would be a huge psychological blow. I hope it doesn’t happen, but it could be a very quick fall for him. | |
| “He’s always been able to pick himself up and dust himself off. He’s had some really tough injuries, some big matches. You go back to the US Open when he lost to Del Potro. He was struggling there; a couple times in the Australian against Ferrer, then against Wawrinka in the final. But he’s always managed to be good to go at the French. Somehow, he’s always found a way to get himself ready there. | “He’s always been able to pick himself up and dust himself off. He’s had some really tough injuries, some big matches. You go back to the US Open when he lost to Del Potro. He was struggling there; a couple times in the Australian against Ferrer, then against Wawrinka in the final. But he’s always managed to be good to go at the French. Somehow, he’s always found a way to get himself ready there. |
| “[But] just the way he plays, there’s so much effort expended. He doesn’t have the same ease of striking the ball as Djokovic and Federer. His heart and his commitment will be there; I think it’s his body. If his body and his mind start to break down – and they sort of go hand-in-hand – I think that would be his downfall. He could be done pretty quickly. | |
| “Obviously, Nadal’s lost quite a bit of confidence. You can see by some of the big misses that are coming into his game, seemingly out of nowhere, some of them at crucial times in a match. I don’t think he’s moving nearly as well in defence as he has in the past. When he gets out wide into the corners, to me it looks like he’s a half a step slow. Some of that might be just his lack of confidence in his swings.” | |
| McEnroe added: “It’s almost impossible to know for sure if it’s the longevity factor, the miles, the wear and tear he’s put on his body. I don’t think any of us are really surprised that this would happen to him – certainly earlier than Djokovic or Roger. That being said, I still think that he’s the second favourite at the French. I would have to put Djokovic as the favourite based on just how dominant he’s been this year. But confidence and movement are the two big issues for him right now.” | McEnroe added: “It’s almost impossible to know for sure if it’s the longevity factor, the miles, the wear and tear he’s put on his body. I don’t think any of us are really surprised that this would happen to him – certainly earlier than Djokovic or Roger. That being said, I still think that he’s the second favourite at the French. I would have to put Djokovic as the favourite based on just how dominant he’s been this year. But confidence and movement are the two big issues for him right now.” |
| Evert was not so gloomy. “He doesn’t look as sharp going into it this year, no doubt about it,” she said. “But you have to be stupid to count him out, especially if he starts to gain that confidence in the first week. | |
| “I don’t mean this to sound the way it probably is sounding but I think he looks leaner and maybe isn’t as powerful as he used to be. I’m uncomfortable. I’m not implying anything, but at the same time he just doesn’t look as imposing as he used to. Every muscle in his body was pumped up. He used that for explosion. He doesn’t have that explosion any more.” | |
| Fernandez has spotted some technical flaws. “Especially on the clay, he’s not converting,” she said. “The forehand is letting him down. That’s his big shot. A lot of it has to do with having confidence in your movement, getting to the shots when you want to get to them, how you want to get to them. | Fernandez has spotted some technical flaws. “Especially on the clay, he’s not converting,” she said. “The forehand is letting him down. That’s his big shot. A lot of it has to do with having confidence in your movement, getting to the shots when you want to get to them, how you want to get to them. |
| “If he loses, it will be a shock to everybody just because it hasn’t happened in a very long time. He has to lose at the French at some point. I’m confident he’ll come back again. He’s an amazing champion. He works extremely hard. He still has a great amount of passion for the game. There’s no reason to write him off if he doesn’t win the French.” | “If he loses, it will be a shock to everybody just because it hasn’t happened in a very long time. He has to lose at the French at some point. I’m confident he’ll come back again. He’s an amazing champion. He works extremely hard. He still has a great amount of passion for the game. There’s no reason to write him off if he doesn’t win the French.” |
| The bookmakers have not quite done that yet but they are tempting his believers to fly in the face of their sentiment, because Djokovic is odds-on, Nadal second-favourite, Murray third with Nishikori then giving Federer a run for other people’s money. Pointedly, Federer makes Nadal favourite, Djokovic says he is “one of the favourites”, a not so subtle distinction. | The bookmakers have not quite done that yet but they are tempting his believers to fly in the face of their sentiment, because Djokovic is odds-on, Nadal second-favourite, Murray third with Nishikori then giving Federer a run for other people’s money. Pointedly, Federer makes Nadal favourite, Djokovic says he is “one of the favourites”, a not so subtle distinction. |
| What complicates the equation is the decision by the French to seed their champion in keeping with his reduced world ranking at No7. That has now set him on a collision course with Djokovic in the quarter-finals. | What complicates the equation is the decision by the French to seed their champion in keeping with his reduced world ranking at No7. That has now set him on a collision course with Djokovic in the quarter-finals. |
| It was amusing to hear Djokovic and Federer, finalists in Rome last week, bemoaning the fact that Nadal was not being afforded the deference due him as the title-holder. Of course, they would have liked him seeded in the top four: that way, they could avoid him until the semi-finals. Beware opponents bearing gifts of false praise. | |
| McEnroe agrees with them, however, and it does seem churlish to leave Nadal outside the comfort zone at the top of the seedings. “It’s a mistake,” he said. “He should be in the top four. That being said, I understand where they’re coming from, because they’ve never done that. I certainly can’t imagine people would complain by moving up Nadal. I mean, the guy has won it nine times.” | McEnroe agrees with them, however, and it does seem churlish to leave Nadal outside the comfort zone at the top of the seedings. “It’s a mistake,” he said. “He should be in the top four. That being said, I understand where they’re coming from, because they’ve never done that. I certainly can’t imagine people would complain by moving up Nadal. I mean, the guy has won it nine times.” |
| Is nine a number that will be retired at the French Open for Nadal? Like the naysayers I fear it might be but only after a fighting rearguard action in the second week. | Is nine a number that will be retired at the French Open for Nadal? Like the naysayers I fear it might be but only after a fighting rearguard action in the second week. |
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