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British EU referendum: when, what and who? Answers to the key questions British EU referendum: when, what and who? Answers to the key questions
(about 11 hours later)
On Thursday, on the day after the Queen’s speech, the government will publish an EU referendum bill, which will supply answers to some, though probably not all of the key questions: 1) the wording of the referendum question, 2) the electoral franchise (who can vote) and 3) the date of the referendum. Each of these three areas could prove crucial in determining the outcome.On Thursday, on the day after the Queen’s speech, the government will publish an EU referendum bill, which will supply answers to some, though probably not all of the key questions: 1) the wording of the referendum question, 2) the electoral franchise (who can vote) and 3) the date of the referendum. Each of these three areas could prove crucial in determining the outcome.
When will the referendum be held?When will the referendum be held?
This is the key question, but also the one the bill is least likely to answer. A draft bill, submitted by Tory MP James Wharton in December 2013, proposed that a referendum on Britain’s membership of the EU “must be held before 31 December 2017”, and it is likely that next week’s bill will allow David Cameron similar wriggle room.This is the key question, but also the one the bill is least likely to answer. A draft bill, submitted by Tory MP James Wharton in December 2013, proposed that a referendum on Britain’s membership of the EU “must be held before 31 December 2017”, and it is likely that next week’s bill will allow David Cameron similar wriggle room.
Politicians from across the spectrum are speaking out in favour of an early referendum in 2016. The government may want to take advantage of the post-election honeymoon, while the “better off out” Tory backbenchers in the Tory ranks may calculate that an early referendum would give the “in” camp less time to successfully renegotiate Britain’s relationship with the EU. Labour leadership candidate Andy Burnham and various Liberal Democrats have indicated they would support a 2016 date, while business leaders say they would welcome as brief a period of political uncertainty as possible.Politicians from across the spectrum are speaking out in favour of an early referendum in 2016. The government may want to take advantage of the post-election honeymoon, while the “better off out” Tory backbenchers in the Tory ranks may calculate that an early referendum would give the “in” camp less time to successfully renegotiate Britain’s relationship with the EU. Labour leadership candidate Andy Burnham and various Liberal Democrats have indicated they would support a 2016 date, while business leaders say they would welcome as brief a period of political uncertainty as possible.
The rush for a 2016 referendum is also motivated by a fear that Scottish elections in May 2016 will provide domestic distraction, while French presidential elections in March/April 2017 and German federal elections in September that year could set Cameron’s negotiations back to zero, especially if chancellor Angela Merkel were not to run for a fourth term.The rush for a 2016 referendum is also motivated by a fear that Scottish elections in May 2016 will provide domestic distraction, while French presidential elections in March/April 2017 and German federal elections in September that year could set Cameron’s negotiations back to zero, especially if chancellor Angela Merkel were not to run for a fourth term.
Related: Restricted franchise in EU referendum would make a mockery of democracy | Letters
But perhaps people are getting a little bit too excited about a referendum in 2016. If the referendum bill was given a smooth ride in the Lords, it could receive royal assent as early as July – but given that issues around the phrasing of the question and the franchise are likely to prove contentious, this seems unlikely.But perhaps people are getting a little bit too excited about a referendum in 2016. If the referendum bill was given a smooth ride in the Lords, it could receive royal assent as early as July – but given that issues around the phrasing of the question and the franchise are likely to prove contentious, this seems unlikely.
Also, in the case of the Scottish referendum in 2014, an enabling act was passed nearly nine months before the poll, and the Electoral Commission has recommended that “future referendum legislation should be delivered to a similar timetable and standard” – which would easily push the EU referendum into 2017.Also, in the case of the Scottish referendum in 2014, an enabling act was passed nearly nine months before the poll, and the Electoral Commission has recommended that “future referendum legislation should be delivered to a similar timetable and standard” – which would easily push the EU referendum into 2017.
Holding the referendum in autumn 2017, just before the German elections, would come with another advantage for Cameron’s government. In the second half of the year, the presidency of the European council will rotate to Britain, putting the relevant British minister for each area into the council chair for six months. While the presidency will not empower the British government as such, it will provide a perfect platform for grandstanding, a chance to spin the story of “winning in Europe” to the domestic press.Holding the referendum in autumn 2017, just before the German elections, would come with another advantage for Cameron’s government. In the second half of the year, the presidency of the European council will rotate to Britain, putting the relevant British minister for each area into the council chair for six months. While the presidency will not empower the British government as such, it will provide a perfect platform for grandstanding, a chance to spin the story of “winning in Europe” to the domestic press.
The last time there was a British referendum on EU membership, in 1975, a mere five months passed between the government announcing, on 7 January, that there would be a referendum and the country going to the polls, on 5 June. But the historical parallel could be deceptive, not least because the European parliament wasn’t established until 1979.The last time there was a British referendum on EU membership, in 1975, a mere five months passed between the government announcing, on 7 January, that there would be a referendum and the country going to the polls, on 5 June. But the historical parallel could be deceptive, not least because the European parliament wasn’t established until 1979.
This time, if Cameron wants to fast-track amendments to the existing treaties via a so-called “simplified” procedure, he will need the support of the European parliament. And if Britain tried to meddle with legislation close to the parliament’s heart, such as in-work benefits for EU citizens, then its president Martin Schulz may insist on calling for a convention – which, at worst, could knock a referendum as far back as 2018.This time, if Cameron wants to fast-track amendments to the existing treaties via a so-called “simplified” procedure, he will need the support of the European parliament. And if Britain tried to meddle with legislation close to the parliament’s heart, such as in-work benefits for EU citizens, then its president Martin Schulz may insist on calling for a convention – which, at worst, could knock a referendum as far back as 2018.
What kind of question will the referendum ask?What kind of question will the referendum ask?
Received wisdom about referendums is that voters tend to root for the status quo rather than dramatic change, and that campaigning for a yes vote is easier than a no.Received wisdom about referendums is that voters tend to root for the status quo rather than dramatic change, and that campaigning for a yes vote is easier than a no.
The 1975 referendum seems to support these assumptions. Back then, and perhaps unusually so, the ballot paper offered a statement followed by a question: “The government have announced the results of the renegotiation of the United Kingdom’s terms of membership of the European Community. Do you think the United Kingdom should stay in the European Community (the Common Market)?” The outcome was clear: more than 67% of the British electorate voted to stay in the EEC.The 1975 referendum seems to support these assumptions. Back then, and perhaps unusually so, the ballot paper offered a statement followed by a question: “The government have announced the results of the renegotiation of the United Kingdom’s terms of membership of the European Community. Do you think the United Kingdom should stay in the European Community (the Common Market)?” The outcome was clear: more than 67% of the British electorate voted to stay in the EEC.
Last year’s private member’s bill, proposed by a Eurosceptic MP, may have had the lessons of 1975 in mind when it proposed the following wording: “Do you think the UK should be a member of the European Union”, which was criticised by the Electoral Commission for potentially confusing those who didn’t know Britain was already a member of the EU. The watchdog instead recommended two alternatives: “Should the UK remain a member of the European Union”, or “Should the UK remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?”, with “Remain” and “Leave” as the two options. The latter option would avoid the potential bias of allowing one camp to campaign on a yes vote; the watchdog calls it “the most neutral wording” [pdf].Last year’s private member’s bill, proposed by a Eurosceptic MP, may have had the lessons of 1975 in mind when it proposed the following wording: “Do you think the UK should be a member of the European Union”, which was criticised by the Electoral Commission for potentially confusing those who didn’t know Britain was already a member of the EU. The watchdog instead recommended two alternatives: “Should the UK remain a member of the European Union”, or “Should the UK remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?”, with “Remain” and “Leave” as the two options. The latter option would avoid the potential bias of allowing one camp to campaign on a yes vote; the watchdog calls it “the most neutral wording” [pdf].
The Electoral Commission had an important role as a mediator between the English and Scottish governments in the runup to the referendum on Scottish independence in 2014: the watchdog was consulted and its recommendations were taken on board. But with the EU referendum, a Conservative majority government may feel emboldened to have its own way.The Electoral Commission had an important role as a mediator between the English and Scottish governments in the runup to the referendum on Scottish independence in 2014: the watchdog was consulted and its recommendations were taken on board. But with the EU referendum, a Conservative majority government may feel emboldened to have its own way.
Who will be allowed to vote?Who will be allowed to vote?
The government has rushed to clarify its position on this matter before the publication of the bill, stating that the franchise for the referendum will be broadly the same as that of the general election: British, Irish and Commonwealth citizens, as well as British expats who have lived abroad for less than 15 years, will be able to vote; EU citizens based in Britain will not.The government has rushed to clarify its position on this matter before the publication of the bill, stating that the franchise for the referendum will be broadly the same as that of the general election: British, Irish and Commonwealth citizens, as well as British expats who have lived abroad for less than 15 years, will be able to vote; EU citizens based in Britain will not.
Some have criticised this decision, pointing out that it deprives two groups who would be likely to vote yes, namely EU citizens in the UK and Britons who have lived in other EU states for a long time. But some yes campaigners have welcomed the move, fearing that a tight win for the yes camp with the help of EU citizens’ votes would leave room for Eurosceptics to contest the outcome.Some have criticised this decision, pointing out that it deprives two groups who would be likely to vote yes, namely EU citizens in the UK and Britons who have lived in other EU states for a long time. But some yes campaigners have welcomed the move, fearing that a tight win for the yes camp with the help of EU citizens’ votes would leave room for Eurosceptics to contest the outcome.
EU citizens based in the UK are allowed to vote in elections for local governments and the European parliament. Following a precedent set by the Greater London authority, they can also vote in elections for the Scottish parliament, the National Assembly for Wales and the Northern Ireland assembly if they are registered in Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland respectively. EU citizens registered in Scotland were allowed to vote in last year’s referendum on Scottish independence.EU citizens based in the UK are allowed to vote in elections for local governments and the European parliament. Following a precedent set by the Greater London authority, they can also vote in elections for the Scottish parliament, the National Assembly for Wales and the Northern Ireland assembly if they are registered in Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland respectively. EU citizens registered in Scotland were allowed to vote in last year’s referendum on Scottish independence.
The government is likely to face much fiercer opposition to its decision to reject extending the franchise to 16-17 year olds. Labour, the Scottish National party and several peers in the House of Lords have indicated that they are willing to use the government’s relative weakness to contest this aspect of the referendum bill.The government is likely to face much fiercer opposition to its decision to reject extending the franchise to 16-17 year olds. Labour, the Scottish National party and several peers in the House of Lords have indicated that they are willing to use the government’s relative weakness to contest this aspect of the referendum bill.