Cameron’s bid for special treatment in Europe is a phenomenal gamble
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Version 0 of 1. David Cameron is about to hurl his irresistible election mandate at the immoveable object of France and Germany, and their desire for ever closer union. He is to clear his diary for a month-long campaign to avert another diplomatic car crash over Europe. Cameron has promised “fundamental change” in Britain’s treaty relations with the EU, with a referendum by the end of 2017. Germany and France have no interest in such a negotiation. They are more concerned with Greece and Italy, and with achieving “economic, fiscal and social convergence” for the eurozone. Such convergence, revealed today by Le Monde and the Guardian, is to be sought without recourse to new treaties or referendums – with their risk of popular rejection. These are precisely the antics of a centralised and undemocratic oligarchy that makes Europe anathema to Cameron’s party and to a present majority of Britons. Like John Major in 1992, the British prime minister has covert allies among the lesser leaders in Europe. Many are sceptical of Germany’s strengthening muscle and have nationalist parties snapping at their heels. But as Major found, these tend to be fair-weather friends, most in varying states of economic serfdom to Germany. Cameron’s plan is to win a consensus of European leaders for special treatment for Britain, as in migration, deregulation, justice and other forms of sovereignty. If a new treaty is not feasible – as is surely the case – a plausible confection of protocols and opt-outs would have to do. These would have to seem “fundamental” enough to pass muster in a British referendum. To win such a vote for staying in Europe, Cameron might have to split his own party and rely on compliant Labour and Scottish MPs for support. Success on that basis is not inconceivable, but it would need a Herculean exercise in public relations. It might also devastate Cameron’s inevitably weakening leadership, since he has already said he will retire before the next election. This is a phenomenal gamble. Cameron’s current handicap is that the more Germany and France talk up eurozone convergence, the more they play into the hands of Britain’s Eurosceptics. The zone’s competitiveness in world markets is declining, as is its ability to meet the aspirations of its poorer members. The siren call for a different sort of Europe will grow stronger – and Cameron will in effect have to defend the status quo. But at least he is holding a referendum. Few of his fellow European leaders would dare take that risk. |