The art of North Korea's nuclear brinkmanship

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/may/29/north-korea-nuclear-brinkmanship

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North Korea’s press office announced earlier this month that Kim Jong-un had personally supervised the firing of a new submarine-based missile.

The news was soon followed by more footage from state media claiming to evidence another ballistic missile launch, but experts have since voiced doubts over the authenticity of the images.

But these stories are just the latest steps in a routine North Korea has long been playing with the west.

Despite often engaging in deals and agreements with western powers hoping to halt its nuclear proliferation, this “dance” of negotiations has so far failed to halt the DPRK’s military development.

Related: North Korea submarine missile launch photos may be fake, say experts

For 25 years, the pariah state has been intent on developing a formidable arsenal, and the recent “missile launches” are just manoeuvres in a well worn routine the country has developed to get what it wants.

Recent attempts to negotiate with the secretive country have been made by Japan and South Korea, but the leading western power trying to bring about a resolution is the US, which doesn’t have a good history of dealing with the North.

In fact, the record is of one failure after another. There has been little success in getting Kim Jong-un or his father before him to give up their nuclear weapons – or to stop the country’s ballistic missile development.

Perhaps it’s time for diplomacy to try a different tack?

The routine begins

Troubles with North Korea began in 1989 when it was first suspected of developing a nuclear bomb, despite having signed the nuclear non-proliferation treaty just three years earlier.

Continually denying entry to weapons inspectors, when observers were finally permitted to visit in 1992 they found discrepancies between what North Korea had previously declared – in terms of plutonium and the disposal of nuclear waste – and what the limited inspections revealed. Two further inspections were blocked, and no further information was provided by the North.

However in 1994, the US and North Korea signed an agreement in which Kim Jong-il – the current leader’s father – agreed to cease plutonium production, an important by-product in the working of a nuclear reactor.

In return, the North were promised petroleum and the construction of two light water reactors – which they claimed would be used for civilian electricity production. In fact the water reactor fuel rods could be salvaged for uranium enrichment purposes, and sure enough, not long after signing the US discovered that the DPRK was doing just that.

The US responded by halting all petroleum shipments, and the light water reactors were never finished.

Despite this, in 2003 the US agreed to participate in the Six-Party talks hosted by China, aimed at resolving the DPRK nuclear impasse, alongside Japan, Russia and South Korea. Characterised by fits and starts over the following six years, the talks were finally abandoned in 2009 with no substantive progress on the North Korean nuclear issue.

Did North Korea out-manoeuvre the US and its allies?

In 2012, yet another agreement – the Leap Day Deal – was signed in which the DPRK agreed to a moratorium on its nuclear and missile programs and entry for weapons inspectors, in exchange for food imports.

These ​events suggest that North Korea has ​outmanoeuvred western powers for over 25 years

A mere 16 days later, the country announced a ballistic missile test under the guise of putting a satellite into orbit.

These events reveal a pattern, and suggests that North Korea has developed a tried-and-tested formula to outwit western powers for over 25 years.

It has done so using a modus operandi we’ll call “the dance”, which follows these eight steps:

Step 1: North Korea wants or needs something, most often food or petroleum.

Step 2: North Korea generates tension and gains international attention.

Step 3: Countries initially ignore the activity and attribute it to North Korea merely “acting up”.

Step 4: North Korea increases tension through increasingly violent acts or extreme rhetoric.

Step 5: The world finally pays attention and agrees to discuss a resolution.

Step 6: North Korea agrees to stop its nuclear and missile programs in exchange for what it needs or wants: food, petroleum or other aid.

Step 7: Once the aid is received, North Korea soon finds – or invents – a way to justify breaking its commitment.

Step 8: Repeat

Other threats

During the protracted efforts to denuclearise North Korea, another threat was developing.

Intelligence reports amassed throughout the years of negotiations indicated a massive build up of conventional weapons in the demilitarised zone along the South Korean border targeting the capital Seoul, but nothing was done.

Perhaps it’s time to ​admit that North Korea is indeed a nuclear power?

As a consequence of allowing these military installations, any opportunity for a preemptive strike against the North’s nuclear sites has been lost, for fear it would prompt an attack on Seoul and other parts of the South. Now, the threat of destruction raining down on the northern parts of South Korea is too high a price. Consequently, the only option remaining is diplomacy.

The facts are that the DPRK has a small nuclear arsenal, a crude but effective delivery system, and enough conventional rockets and short-range missiles aimed at densely populated areas of South Korea to make residents there nervous.

Of course, there are no guarantees that talking with North Korea will produce change. For one thing, it is highly improbable that the country would agree to give up its weapons: for Kim Jong-un, these programs are seen as vital to ensure his, and North Korea’s, survival.

But beyond the nuclear issue, there are a host of other pressing questions that would benefit greatly from discussion with the North: reunions for families separated by the Korean War, for example, or food and nutritional aid for children and nursing mothers, and medical assistance in combating tuberculosis and sexually transmitted diseases, for starters.

It’s diplomacy that can bring about these much-needed conversations between the North and the rest of the world.

A version of this article first appeared in NK News, part of the North Korea network

Robert E McCoy is a retired US Air Force North Korea analyst who lived in Asia for 14 years, including over four years in Korea