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Could this be Turkey's last democratic election? Turkey election: The least predictable for over a decade
(about 3 hours later)
At a square in central Istanbul, women are dancing and clapping along to loud music, wearing T-shirts bearing the logo of the political party they want to win the general election on 7 June. Standing nearby, another party's supporters wait for their turn.At a square in central Istanbul, women are dancing and clapping along to loud music, wearing T-shirts bearing the logo of the political party they want to win the general election on 7 June. Standing nearby, another party's supporters wait for their turn.
It feels like a street festival of democracy, though rather poorly decorated - with different party flags hanging across trees and lamp-posts.It feels like a street festival of democracy, though rather poorly decorated - with different party flags hanging across trees and lamp-posts.
But there is an underlying tension.But there is an underlying tension.
There have been attacks on party buildings, buses and even candidates.There have been attacks on party buildings, buses and even candidates.
The stakes in this election are high.The stakes in this election are high.
Critics of the current government say this could be the last democratic election before Turkey becomes an autocracy.Critics of the current government say this could be the last democratic election before Turkey becomes an autocracy.
Supporters say the country's stability is at risk.Supporters say the country's stability is at risk.
For the past 13 years, the Islamist-rooted Justice and Development Party (AKP) has held power.For the past 13 years, the Islamist-rooted Justice and Development Party (AKP) has held power.
It has won seven consecutive elections and two referendums, and looks very likely to emerge as the biggest party in the upcoming election.It has won seven consecutive elections and two referendums, and looks very likely to emerge as the biggest party in the upcoming election.
Last year, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has led the party since 2003, was elected the country's president, with more than 52% of the vote.Last year, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has led the party since 2003, was elected the country's president, with more than 52% of the vote.
'Authoritarian tendencies''Authoritarian tendencies'
On paper, this election is not about Mr Erdogan - constitutionally the president has to be impartial and above politics.On paper, this election is not about Mr Erdogan - constitutionally the president has to be impartial and above politics.
But in reality, he has featured on every level during the campaign - an issue the opposition has taken to court, with no result.But in reality, he has featured on every level during the campaign - an issue the opposition has taken to court, with no result.
Mr Erdogan wants to change Turkey's constitution, abolish the parliamentary system and introduce an executive presidency instead. Mr Erdogan wants to change Turkey's constitution, diminish the role of the parliamentary system and introduce an executive presidency instead.
Critics say this has the potential to increase "Mr Erdogan's authoritarian tendencies".Critics say this has the potential to increase "Mr Erdogan's authoritarian tendencies".
Recep Tayyip Erdogan:Recep Tayyip Erdogan:
Profile: Recep Tayyip ErdoganProfile: Recep Tayyip Erdogan
Turkey elections: BBC road tripTurkey elections: BBC road trip
How will the HDP perform?How will the HDP perform?
Whether or not a presidential system can be introduced will depend on how many seats the AKP manages to win in this election.Whether or not a presidential system can be introduced will depend on how many seats the AKP manages to win in this election.
If the party wins more than two-thirds of the seats in the parliament, it will be able to rewrite the constitution and change the system without the need to put it to a referendum. If the party wins more than two-thirds of the seats in the parliament, it will be able to rewrite the constitution and change the system without the need to put it to a referendum. To push for constitutional changes through a referendum, they will need 60% of the seats.
This is quite unlikely, if the pro-Kurdish, leftist party the HDP wins seats. This is quite unlikely if the pro-Kurdish, leftist People's Democratic Party (HDP) wins seats.
Under Turkey's electoral system, a party has to poll more than 10% of the overall vote to make it into the parliament.Under Turkey's electoral system, a party has to poll more than 10% of the overall vote to make it into the parliament.
Polls suggest the HDP might just top 10% to take up the more than 50 seats they are predicted to win. If they do, the 13 years of single-handed rule of the governing AKP may come to an end, forcing the party to form a coalition government.Polls suggest the HDP might just top 10% to take up the more than 50 seats they are predicted to win. If they do, the 13 years of single-handed rule of the governing AKP may come to an end, forcing the party to form a coalition government.
If the HDP does not make it into parliament though, its seats will be divided among other parties, and the AKP will be the primary beneficiary. This will pave the way for the kind of majority the AKP desires to change the constitution. It is this possibility that makes this the most important election in Turkey since 2002.
Isolation fears If the HDP does not make it into parliament though, its votes will be redistributed among other parties, and the AKP will be the primary beneficiary. This will pave the way for the kind of majority the AKP desires to change the constitution.
Mr Erdogan and the governing party have been credited with initiating the negotiations for a peace with the country's almost 15 million Kurds. Economy concerns
The long-lasting war between Turkish forces and Kurdish guerrilla group the PKK cost an estimated 40,000 lives in three decades.
For the past two years, a ceasefire has been in place.
However, the negotiations between Turkish intelligence units and the PKK's imprisoned leader, Abdullah Ocalan, seem to have been stalled.
Mr Erdogan hardened his rhetoric by saying there was not a "Kurdish problem", which alienated his pious Kurdish supporters.
On an international level, many fear Turkey risks becoming isolated.
It now has no ambassadors in Syria, Egypt, Libya or Israel.
The advance of the group calling themselves Islamic State across the border in Syria and Iraq is seen as an increasing threat.
Economy priority
Under AKP rule, Turkey's economy had a good run for more than a decade:Under AKP rule, Turkey's economy had a good run for more than a decade:
And Turkey was recently ranked as the 17th biggest economy in the world.And Turkey was recently ranked as the 17th biggest economy in the world.
But now:But now:
And the economy has been at the top of the agenda during the election campaign.
Corruption allegations involving government ministers and the lavishness of the multimillion-dollar 1,000-room presidential palace featured in opposition rallies.Corruption allegations involving government ministers and the lavishness of the multimillion-dollar 1,000-room presidential palace featured in opposition rallies.
A debate on whether or not there were golden toilet seats in the palace made international headlines.A debate on whether or not there were golden toilet seats in the palace made international headlines.
'Insulting the president''Insulting the president'
Freedom of speech remains one of the most sensitive issues.Freedom of speech remains one of the most sensitive issues.
In March, social media sites, including Twitter, Facebook and YouTube, were briefly banned after critical posts.In March, social media sites, including Twitter, Facebook and YouTube, were briefly banned after critical posts.
Since Mr Erdogan was elected president, more than 100 people have been sued for "insulting the head of state".Since Mr Erdogan was elected president, more than 100 people have been sued for "insulting the head of state".
This week, when opposition newspaper Cumhuriyet published videos allegedly showing Turkish intelligence lorries carrying weapons to opposition groups in Syria, President Erdogan accused the paper and its editor-in-chief of espionage and took legal action.This week, when opposition newspaper Cumhuriyet published videos allegedly showing Turkish intelligence lorries carrying weapons to opposition groups in Syria, President Erdogan accused the paper and its editor-in-chief of espionage and took legal action.
In Freedom House's latest "freedom of the press" report, Turkey's status declined from "partly free" to "not free".In Freedom House's latest "freedom of the press" report, Turkey's status declined from "partly free" to "not free".
In the 2015 World Press Freedom Index, Turkey ranks 149th out of 180 countries.In the 2015 World Press Freedom Index, Turkey ranks 149th out of 180 countries.
Isolation fears
Mr Erdogan and the governing party have been credited with initiating the negotiations for a peace with the country's almost 15 million Kurds, which was seen as a major breakthrough.
The long-lasting war between the Turkish forces and Kurdish guerrilla group the PKK cost an estimated 40,000 lives in three decades.
For the past two years, a ceasefire has been in place.
However, the negotiations between the Turkish Intelligence Organization (MIT) and the PKK's imprisoned leader, Abdullah Ocalan, seem to have been stalled.
Mr Erdogan hardened his rhetoric by saying there was not a "Kurdish problem", which alienated his pious Kurdish supporters.
On an international level, many fear Turkey risks becoming isolated.
It now has no ambassadors in Syria, Egypt, Libya or Israel, while membership negotiations with the European Union are almost at a standstill.
The advance of the group calling themselves Islamic State across the border in Syria and Iraq is seen as an increasing threat.
On the streets of Diyarbakır, in south-east Turkey, Kurds are already jubilant - as if the party they predominantly support, the HDP, has already made its breakthrough.On the streets of Diyarbakır, in south-east Turkey, Kurds are already jubilant - as if the party they predominantly support, the HDP, has already made its breakthrough.
A sense of newly found self-confidence and self-expression is evident.A sense of newly found self-confidence and self-expression is evident.
But that joy could turn to anger if the HDP falls short of 10%.But that joy could turn to anger if the HDP falls short of 10%.
This is Turkey's least predictable election in more than a decade.This is Turkey's least predictable election in more than a decade.
Supporters and opponents of the government are holding their breath.Supporters and opponents of the government are holding their breath.