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| Turkey election results: what you need to know | Turkey election results: what you need to know |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| Since 2002, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s AK party had always won a majority in every Turkish election. National elections, local votes, and in the more recent presidential one, Erdoğan always won comfortably. This year, however, the party lost its parliamentary majority and saw its share of the vote fall. | Since 2002, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s AK party had always won a majority in every Turkish election. National elections, local votes, and in the more recent presidential one, Erdoğan always won comfortably. This year, however, the party lost its parliamentary majority and saw its share of the vote fall. |
| Make no mistake: the AKP remains Turkey’s most popular party, but on Sunday its rise came to a halt. | |
| Related: Turkey election: Erdoğan's AKP struggles to form goverment after setback – live | Related: Turkey election: Erdoğan's AKP struggles to form goverment after setback – live |
| The main reason for it falling short this time is the spectacular result of the pro-Kurdish alliance, the Peoples’ Democratic party (HDP). By surpassing the 10% threshold needed to enter parliament, the HDP has secured 80 seats. | |
| To circumvent the 10% threshold, pro-Kurdish candidates usually stood as independents (to whom the threshold doesn’t apply). Standing as a party, the group, led by former lawyer Selahattin Demirtaş, took a bold decision – and it paid off. | |
| Going into Sunday’s general election, Erdoğan, Turkey’s president, and the prime minister, Ahmet Davutoğlu, were hoping the AKP would win enough seats (367 seats are needed to change the constitution directly, 330 seats to call a referendum to change the system) to amend the constitution to give the role of president more power. | |
| Instead, with nearly all votes counted, the AKP is set, for the first time in its history, to not even secure an outright majority in parliament. | |
| If the vote was a referendum on Erdoğan’s enhanced presidential plans – the people of Turkey have said no. | If the vote was a referendum on Erdoğan’s enhanced presidential plans – the people of Turkey have said no. |
| Here are the six things you need to know about Sunday’s vote: | Here are the six things you need to know about Sunday’s vote: |
| 1) The provisional result | 1) The provisional result |
| The AKP looks to have lost about 70 seats, and is 17 short of a majority. The main opposition party, the Kemalist Republican People’s party (CHP), has 132 seats and 25% of the vote, slightly down from the 2011 election when it won 26% of the vote and 135 seats. | |
| In terms of the share of the vote, the Nationalist Movement party (MHP) is slightly up on 2011 (from 13% to 16.5%), but this time will see its candidates take 80 seats compared with 53 then. | |
| 2) AKP’s worst result in 13 years | 2) AKP’s worst result in 13 years |
| In every election since 2002, Erdoğan’s AKP had always secured a majority in parliament – the following chart shows the first time it failed to win an outright majority of seats: | |
| As impressively, the party had always improved on its previous performance in terms of the number of votes won: | As impressively, the party had always improved on its previous performance in terms of the number of votes won: |
| 3) The boom of the HDP and a slowing economy | 3) The boom of the HDP and a slowing economy |
| Erdoğan’s AKP is still – by far – Turkey’s most popular party. | Erdoğan’s AKP is still – by far – Turkey’s most popular party. |
| Although its share of the vote is down nearly 10 points from 2011, the share on Sunday was higher than it was in 2002 (when the party though won 363 seats with 34.5% of the vote) and that of the AKP’s main opposition remains flat – and well behind. | Although its share of the vote is down nearly 10 points from 2011, the share on Sunday was higher than it was in 2002 (when the party though won 363 seats with 34.5% of the vote) and that of the AKP’s main opposition remains flat – and well behind. |
| The difference in seats between now and 2002 is explained by the spectacular result of the HDP and by Turkey’s voting system. | The difference in seats between now and 2002 is explained by the spectacular result of the HDP and by Turkey’s voting system. |
| First, 13 years ago only two parties entered parliament. | First, 13 years ago only two parties entered parliament. |
| Second, the HDP was not only successful in uniting the pro-Kurdish vote but went strong on Erdoğan’s divisiveness and ambition to enhance presidential powers – and in doing so appealed to a broader electorate of liberals, leftists and women. It worked and the party claimed strong results beyond its enclaves in the east of the country, including in Istanbul, in the north-west. The map below shows the HDP share of the vote with the darker purple the better the party performed. | Second, the HDP was not only successful in uniting the pro-Kurdish vote but went strong on Erdoğan’s divisiveness and ambition to enhance presidential powers – and in doing so appealed to a broader electorate of liberals, leftists and women. It worked and the party claimed strong results beyond its enclaves in the east of the country, including in Istanbul, in the north-west. The map below shows the HDP share of the vote with the darker purple the better the party performed. |
| Historically, political stability and a fast-growing economy often sustained the AKP’s popularity despite Erdoğan’s authoritarian tendencies and divisiveness. But over the past five years economic growth has fallen from above 10% to 3% and GDP per capita has not grown since 2007. | Historically, political stability and a fast-growing economy often sustained the AKP’s popularity despite Erdoğan’s authoritarian tendencies and divisiveness. But over the past five years economic growth has fallen from above 10% to 3% and GDP per capita has not grown since 2007. |
| 4) A record number of women elected to parliament | 4) A record number of women elected to parliament |
| The number of women in the Turkish parliament has increased from 79 in 2011 to 96 in 2015 – a record high. The tweet below shows the proportion of women in each party, for instance for the HDP 39.24% of its MPs are women. | The number of women in the Turkish parliament has increased from 79 in 2011 to 96 in 2015 – a record high. The tweet below shows the proportion of women in each party, for instance for the HDP 39.24% of its MPs are women. |
| Kadın temsil oranı: HDP: % 39,24 AKP:%16,27 CHP:%15,9 MHP:%4,87 | Kadın temsil oranı: HDP: % 39,24 AKP:%16,27 CHP:%15,9 MHP:%4,87 |
| 5) The vote abroad | 5) The vote abroad |
| #TurkeyElections result of votes abroad is quite interesting (http://t.co/HTxHjNp257): pic.twitter.com/ASBtwnjeYw | #TurkeyElections result of votes abroad is quite interesting (http://t.co/HTxHjNp257): pic.twitter.com/ASBtwnjeYw |
| Via the Guardian liveblog of the election, a breakdown of the vote among Turkish people living abroad and the countries where each party is strongest (most probably a reflection of the timing and composition of migrant communities in the various countries): | Via the Guardian liveblog of the election, a breakdown of the vote among Turkish people living abroad and the countries where each party is strongest (most probably a reflection of the timing and composition of migrant communities in the various countries): |
| AKP 49.91% (Australia, France and Algeria)HDP 20.42% (United Kingdom, Italy and Canada)CHP 17.02% (Russia, United States and China)MHP 9.24% (Albania) | AKP 49.91% (Australia, France and Algeria)HDP 20.42% (United Kingdom, Italy and Canada)CHP 17.02% (Russia, United States and China)MHP 9.24% (Albania) |
| 6) The markets aren’t happy | 6) The markets aren’t happy |
| What happens next in Turkey is unclear – Erdoğan has never had to deal with an inconclusive result before. And to make matters more nebulous – and difficult to predict - all the parties have (so far) said they don’t want to work with each other. | What happens next in Turkey is unclear – Erdoğan has never had to deal with an inconclusive result before. And to make matters more nebulous – and difficult to predict - all the parties have (so far) said they don’t want to work with each other. |
| We’re in uncharted waters. | We’re in uncharted waters. |
| The most likely scenario is probably some form of minority AKP government, followed at some point by an early election. | The most likely scenario is probably some form of minority AKP government, followed at some point by an early election. |
| Meanwhile, the markets aren’t too happy with uncertainty. Turkey’s stock exchange plunged 8% when it opened on Monday morning, and the Turkish lira was getting slammed. | Meanwhile, the markets aren’t too happy with uncertainty. Turkey’s stock exchange plunged 8% when it opened on Monday morning, and the Turkish lira was getting slammed. |
| Ouch! Lira gets slammed after Turkish elections. http://t.co/P2ZNGrYEoN pic.twitter.com/FextLjm2Pp | Ouch! Lira gets slammed after Turkish elections. http://t.co/P2ZNGrYEoN pic.twitter.com/FextLjm2Pp |