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| Explainer: US abortion rates drop, but data and reasons behind it are complex | Explainer: US abortion rates drop, but data and reasons behind it are complex |
| (about 2 hours later) | |
| Anti-abortion activists say it’s a vindication for restricting access to abortion. Reproductive-rights advocates say it’s all about expanded access to contraception. A new survey from the Associated Press finds abortion rates are down across America and – as is almost always the case in debates over abortion – the truth is more complicated than that. | Anti-abortion activists say it’s a vindication for restricting access to abortion. Reproductive-rights advocates say it’s all about expanded access to contraception. A new survey from the Associated Press finds abortion rates are down across America and – as is almost always the case in debates over abortion – the truth is more complicated than that. |
| States with stringent anti-abortion restrictions – like Oklahoma and Missouri – and those with more liberal reproductive laws – like New York and Oregon – both saw a marked decrease in abortions between 2010 and 2014, according to the AP. Of the 45 states surveyed, only two – Michigan and Louisiana, both of which have imposed numerous restrictions on women’s access to the procedure – saw abortion rates rise during the same period. | States with stringent anti-abortion restrictions – like Oklahoma and Missouri – and those with more liberal reproductive laws – like New York and Oregon – both saw a marked decrease in abortions between 2010 and 2014, according to the AP. Of the 45 states surveyed, only two – Michigan and Louisiana, both of which have imposed numerous restrictions on women’s access to the procedure – saw abortion rates rise during the same period. |
| To put the new survey in broader context, the Guardian caught up with Elizabeth Nash, senior state issues associate at the Guttmacher Institute, a Washington-based think-tank that focuses on sexual and reproductive health. | To put the new survey in broader context, the Guardian caught up with Elizabeth Nash, senior state issues associate at the Guttmacher Institute, a Washington-based think-tank that focuses on sexual and reproductive health. |
| What do you make of the reported drop in US abortion rates? | What do you make of the reported drop in US abortion rates? |
| Elizabeth Nash: US abortion numbers have been going down pretty much since the 1980s – just about 1982. You have to keep that in mind when you’re talking about the AP-reported decline. We saw the downward trend kind of stall out in the mid-2000s, but from 2008 to 2011 there was a pretty noticeable decline in the abortion rate. | Elizabeth Nash: US abortion numbers have been going down pretty much since the 1980s – just about 1982. You have to keep that in mind when you’re talking about the AP-reported decline. We saw the downward trend kind of stall out in the mid-2000s, but from 2008 to 2011 there was a pretty noticeable decline in the abortion rate. |
| What the AP seemed to do was go to state health departments and ask for the latest figures on abortions. They got data from 45 states, some reports from 2013 and some from 2014. This is very similar to the Centers for Disease Control’s methods, though the data is newer. The AP’s survey is different because they were comparing across several different years and not just one. | What the AP seemed to do was go to state health departments and ask for the latest figures on abortions. They got data from 45 states, some reports from 2013 and some from 2014. This is very similar to the Centers for Disease Control’s methods, though the data is newer. The AP’s survey is different because they were comparing across several different years and not just one. |
| Do we know why the abortion rate is on the decline? | Do we know why the abortion rate is on the decline? |
| We don’t know why for this most recent period. But we have data through 2011. Back then, we were able to see that contraception played a significant role. For the period from 2008 to 2011, it looked like the recession had something to do with whether people chose to become pregnant, too. People were putting it off, thinking, “maybe I will do this in a year” or “maybe I shouldn’t have my second child right now”. | We don’t know why for this most recent period. But we have data through 2011. Back then, we were able to see that contraception played a significant role. For the period from 2008 to 2011, it looked like the recession had something to do with whether people chose to become pregnant, too. People were putting it off, thinking, “maybe I will do this in a year” or “maybe I shouldn’t have my second child right now”. |
| Since then, there’s been a renewed interest in family planning, as well as long-acting contraceptive methods [editor’s note: IUDs and implants]. This could be a contributing factor. | Since then, there’s been a renewed interest in family planning, as well as long-acting contraceptive methods [editor’s note: IUDs and implants]. This could be a contributing factor. |
| Researchers [at Guttmacher or the CDC] haven’t been able to pull together all the data for the period at which the AP is looking – 2012, 2013, and 2014 – yet, which makes it hard to know what’s going on there. And you have to think about pregnancy rates, too, not just abortion. | Researchers [at Guttmacher or the CDC] haven’t been able to pull together all the data for the period at which the AP is looking – 2012, 2013, and 2014 – yet, which makes it hard to know what’s going on there. And you have to think about pregnancy rates, too, not just abortion. |
| There are a lot of pregnancy issues to think about which have not been unpacked yet. | |
| The issue is: are there fewer unintended pregnancies for that period? Or are fewer women getting pregnant overall? Or is there a population that is getting pregnant less often, like teens? There are a lot of pregnancy issues to think about which have not been unpacked yet. | The issue is: are there fewer unintended pregnancies for that period? Or are fewer women getting pregnant overall? Or is there a population that is getting pregnant less often, like teens? There are a lot of pregnancy issues to think about which have not been unpacked yet. |
| The other issue that needs to be considered is the effect of different laws and initiatives in different states. Some states are pursuing increased access to family planning services, and they’re seeing a decline. But so are states that are adopting piles of abortion restrictions where clinics are closing. We need to investigate whether both of those approaches are contributing to a decline in abortion. | The other issue that needs to be considered is the effect of different laws and initiatives in different states. Some states are pursuing increased access to family planning services, and they’re seeing a decline. But so are states that are adopting piles of abortion restrictions where clinics are closing. We need to investigate whether both of those approaches are contributing to a decline in abortion. |
| Do we know how state laws restricting abortion, which were passed in record numbers over the past 5 years, affected abortion rates? | Do we know how state laws restricting abortion, which were passed in record numbers over the past 5 years, affected abortion rates? |
| In the past couple of years, we’ve seen abortion clinics close at a rapid clip, like in Texas and Ohio. A few have closed in Tennessee and Virginia, too. That has an impact on access, which could play a role in those states’ reduced abortion rate, though it would not explain it in others. | In the past couple of years, we’ve seen abortion clinics close at a rapid clip, like in Texas and Ohio. A few have closed in Tennessee and Virginia, too. That has an impact on access, which could play a role in those states’ reduced abortion rate, though it would not explain it in others. |
| But if you close the clinics you’re doing nothing to reduce need. Simply reducing the number of abortions without limiting need isn’t a good public health policy. What you want to do is be able to reduce unintended pregnancies overall. | But if you close the clinics you’re doing nothing to reduce need. Simply reducing the number of abortions without limiting need isn’t a good public health policy. What you want to do is be able to reduce unintended pregnancies overall. |