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| EU referendum timeline: What will happen when? | |
| (10 days later) | |
| The referendum on the UK's membership of the EU is likely to dominate politics over the next few years, as David Cameron first seeks to reform the UK's relationship with Brussels and then puts the outcome of his negotiations to a nationwide vote. But what is likely to happen when? | The referendum on the UK's membership of the EU is likely to dominate politics over the next few years, as David Cameron first seeks to reform the UK's relationship with Brussels and then puts the outcome of his negotiations to a nationwide vote. But what is likely to happen when? |
| 2015 | 2015 |
| May 27- New law | May 27- New law |
| The European Union Referendum Bill was unveiled in the Queen's Speech. This is the UK legislation required to allow the referendum to take place. It is currently being debated by MPs before moving to the House of Lords. The government has said the report stage of the bill - where MPs consider further amendments - will take place in the Autumn. While there could be opposition to the plans in the Lords, it is convention that a policy mentioned in a party's election manifesto will not be voted down in the upper house. At the same time as the draft law is progressing through Parliament, Mr Cameron will seek approval of other EU leaders for the reforms he wants to achieve before the referendum can take place. | The European Union Referendum Bill was unveiled in the Queen's Speech. This is the UK legislation required to allow the referendum to take place. It is currently being debated by MPs before moving to the House of Lords. The government has said the report stage of the bill - where MPs consider further amendments - will take place in the Autumn. While there could be opposition to the plans in the Lords, it is convention that a policy mentioned in a party's election manifesto will not be voted down in the upper house. At the same time as the draft law is progressing through Parliament, Mr Cameron will seek approval of other EU leaders for the reforms he wants to achieve before the referendum can take place. |
| June 25-26 - EU summit | June 25-26 - EU summit |
| The first EU summit after the UK general election takes place. David Cameron pledged to meet every other EU leader before this date, to try to win support for his proposed reforms. He is likely to use the European Council meeting - made up of all the EU's heads of state - to reinforce the message. | |
| September 1 - Brussels task force | |
| British official Jonathan Faull will head a group, reporting to European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, which will handle issues relating to the EU referendum. | |
| December 17-18 - Another EU summit | |
| With talks in June dominated by Greece and the migrant crisis, this European Council meeting will give Mr Cameron another opportunity to lobby for his reforms. | |
| Spring 2016 - an early referendum? | Spring 2016 - an early referendum? |
| The earliest realistic time for the referendum to take place. The government has not ruled it out, but it would require a very speedy renegotiation process. What has been ruled out is holding it on 5 May 2016, the same day as elections to devolved parliaments in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland and for London's mayor. But only this specific date has been ruled out, meaning an early poll is still possible. Mr Cameron has given few clues as to how likely this is, saying only that "if we can hold it earlier (than 2017), we will". But it has been pointed out that under the current timetable the EU Referendum Bill might not be passed by the end of 2015. | The earliest realistic time for the referendum to take place. The government has not ruled it out, but it would require a very speedy renegotiation process. What has been ruled out is holding it on 5 May 2016, the same day as elections to devolved parliaments in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland and for London's mayor. But only this specific date has been ruled out, meaning an early poll is still possible. Mr Cameron has given few clues as to how likely this is, saying only that "if we can hold it earlier (than 2017), we will". But it has been pointed out that under the current timetable the EU Referendum Bill might not be passed by the end of 2015. |
| August 2016 - negotiations complete | August 2016 - negotiations complete |
| Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond has said he wants to wrap up EU negotiations by the summer of 2016 if possible, and, if not, by the end of 2016. In the context of the EU this is a very tight deadline, particularly if treaty change is triggered by Mr Cameron's demands. Treaty change requires unanimity of all member states and national parliaments - which took 10 years to complete last time around. | Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond has said he wants to wrap up EU negotiations by the summer of 2016 if possible, and, if not, by the end of 2016. In the context of the EU this is a very tight deadline, particularly if treaty change is triggered by Mr Cameron's demands. Treaty change requires unanimity of all member states and national parliaments - which took 10 years to complete last time around. |
| Late 2016/early 2017 - polling day? | Late 2016/early 2017 - polling day? |
| This is seen as the most likely time for the referendum to take place. No date has been set so far, with Mr Cameron saying the timescale should be determined by the renegotiation process. The prime minister has said he will campaign for Britain to stay in if he gets the reforms he wants but has refused to speculate on whether he would call for an exit if he doesn't succeed, beyond saying he "rules nothing out". | This is seen as the most likely time for the referendum to take place. No date has been set so far, with Mr Cameron saying the timescale should be determined by the renegotiation process. The prime minister has said he will campaign for Britain to stay in if he gets the reforms he wants but has refused to speculate on whether he would call for an exit if he doesn't succeed, beyond saying he "rules nothing out". |
| May 2017 - France goes to the polls | May 2017 - France goes to the polls |
| French presidential elections take place. The government will be keen to have its negotiations wrapped up by this time for fear of Mr Cameron's demands being trumped by French domestic politics, with candidates seeking to win favour at home with a tough stance against the UK. | French presidential elections take place. The government will be keen to have its negotiations wrapped up by this time for fear of Mr Cameron's demands being trumped by French domestic politics, with candidates seeking to win favour at home with a tough stance against the UK. |
| September 2017 - German elections | September 2017 - German elections |
| German parliamentary elections take place. This is also about the latest time the referendum could take place (turnout could be affected if it was held in the winter) to meet the 2017 deadline set out in the legislation. | German parliamentary elections take place. This is also about the latest time the referendum could take place (turnout could be affected if it was held in the winter) to meet the 2017 deadline set out in the legislation. |
| 2019 and beyond | 2019 and beyond |
| In the event of a No vote, a country can withdraw from the EU two years after notifying the European Council of its intention to leave. However, leaving would still involve "complex and probably lengthy negotiations", a Parliamentary briefing paper concluded. Talks would be held on the future of the UK's relationship with the EU, including whether it could still have access to the single market. Resolving all this could take some time. | In the event of a No vote, a country can withdraw from the EU two years after notifying the European Council of its intention to leave. However, leaving would still involve "complex and probably lengthy negotiations", a Parliamentary briefing paper concluded. Talks would be held on the future of the UK's relationship with the EU, including whether it could still have access to the single market. Resolving all this could take some time. |