Bill Shorten's crisis of confidence: how poll frontrunner became hollow man
|
Version 0 of 1. Even before Bill Shorten’s Very Difficult Fortnight, senior Labor figures were discussing what to do about their leader’s crisis of confidence. For much of his life, Shorten has believed he is destined to lead Labor and become prime minister. He has always been a confidence player, supremely self-assured. But somehow, despite having won the leadership at just 46, despite having soared in the polls as the first-term Abbott government stumbled, despite remaining in an election-winning position, despite being the first leader to benefit from new rules specifically designed to protect Labor from its own endemic back-stabbing and bastardry, it was confidence that seemed to desert him. The closer he got to his goal, the more his self-assurance seemed to ebb away. He couldn’t get the daily lines right, earning infamy for what comedian Shaun Micallef dubbed “the zinger”. Far worse, he came across as disingenuous. Inauthentic. A fake. Related: Bill Shorten regrets making 'mistake' in dismissing Gillard-Rudd leadership talk “It’s just sort of an empty void,” said one man who was part of focus groups conducted for Fairfax Media. Others said he was “wishy-washy” or had “no charisma”. Possibly just months away from a chance to achieve his life’s ambition, Shorten seemed unable to rise to the occasion. He was the dog who caught the car. Senior colleagues acknowledge the crisis of confidence, advancing various theories about what has gone wrong and how to fix it. There are, of course, the mountainous pressures on an opposition leader. Above all, given Labor’s recent bloody history, there is the need to consult and maintain unity, which Shorten has partly attempted through an “everyone wins a prize” strategy of including 45 MPs and senators as shadow ministers or parliamentary secretaries, and most of the rest of the caucus on some kind of internal committee or advisory group. It’s a solution that slows down decision-making. Maintaining unity is made all the more difficult as the government keeps probing and jabbing to open a sore point of internal Labor difference on national security or asylum policy. There is also the grind of staying relentlessly on message in every day’s news cycle and the fear of being caught unprepared for an early election. Related: Bill Shorten seeks new chief of staff as Ken Macpherson plans to step down They are the same pressures faced by every opposition leader, but those around Shorten say he seems to feel them more intensely precisely because he is in with a chance. He isn’t the underdog first-term opposition leader with nothing to lose, he is, unexpectedly, the opinion-poll frontrunner with the hopes and expectations of the labour movement on his shoulders, the guy they are all relying on to deny Tony Abbott’s second term and with it his opportunity to implement the vast bulk of the Coalition’s ideological vision. There were personal pressures to keep him off-balance. The historic rape allegation, an open secret in Canberra, hung heavy until Shorten went public to describe it as “untrue and abhorrent” when the police investigation was concluded and inquiries were dropped. The Abbott government’s royal commission inched ever closer to Shortern’s time at the helm of the Australian Workers’ Union, finally calling him to give evidence around the time Labor expects Tony Abbott will be thinking about calling an early election. The claims against Shorten are yet to be tested, but the obvious political aim is the image of the opposition leader “in the dock” and to leave Shorten preoccupied with detailed preparation and unsure about what might emerge. Shorten requested to bring forward his evidence to contain the political damage. Related: Bill Shorten and the Australian Workers' Union – the allegations explained Sources said the prospect of an early election had haunted Shorten – who has driven shadow ministers to have policies ready, the national secretariat to be prepared and preselections to be completed in all states not subject to redistribution. Contradicting this was the revelation by Guardian Australia last month that Labor has yet to take basic decisions on whether to reintroduce a cap-and-trade emissions trading scheme or try to “dial up” the Abbott government’s existing policy to create a carbon market, with former minister Greg Combet working in the national secretariat to help craft a policy. Also complicating policy-making is Labor’s determination to come as near as possible to retaining the Gonski schools funding – after the Coalition removed it from the budget. Somehow all this has combined to drain Shorten of the confidence and authority that a leader needs, to leave him looking depleted and hollow and unconvincing. Even before Shorten entered the final two sitting weeks of the “budget session”, Labor strategists were working on getting him back on track – recruiting a new chief of staff to replace the well-liked Ken Macpherson, who had been unwell, bringing in a new chief strategist and trying to speed up decision-making and improve long-term planning. But then their already-struggling leader entered a political “perfect storm” – polls that showed Labor’s lead narrowing and Shorten’s own popularity crashing, the questions being raised by the royal commission dominating the media and The Killing Season dredging up Shorten’s role in the overthrow of both previous Labor prime ministers. His decision to apologise for a lie he told in a radio interview during that period was seized on by the Coalition as a fundamental question of trust. He wasn’t just a fake. He was a fraud. Abbott sensed Shorten’s weakness and went on the attack, ridiculing him as “floundering” – exactly the charge that only a few months ago was being levelled against the prime minister. “Is he up to it?” a confident Abbott taunted Shorten across the despatch box. In recent days some in Labor claim to see signs that Shorten is reviving rather than retreating under the building pressure – giving a strong speech calling out the government’s attempts to wedge Labor over asylum policy even as he kept his team united behind a decision to support the government’s rushed legislation to shore up the offshore detention system. But it is also in their interests to look for such signs of hope. The leadership rule changes – demanded of Labor in the desperate days when it was trying to return to the prime ministership of Kevin Rudd – mean they can’t overthrow him in Killing Season style. And the alternative conclusion is that the electorate has decided their leader is an “empty suit” and that an unpopular prime minister who has presided over a chaotic first term in government has already got Shorten’s measure. |