Taking the long view on Russia

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-33286950

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President Barack Obama has frequently encouraged his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, to take advantage of various "off-ramps" (exit strategies) to end the crisis in Ukraine and defuse mounting tensions with the United States and the West.

So far, Putin has driven past all of them and shows no sign of changing course. A recent Pew poll provides at least a partial explanation: Putin has a considerable domestic political wind at his back.

Even though there is growing concern among the Russian people about the state of the economy, 88% of those surveyed nevertheless trust Putin's leadership.

Putin may well be driving Russia into the wilderness but so far the Russian people are enjoying the ride. The current dynamic reminds them of the halcyon days of the Soviet Union.

With no obvious end in sight, Europe, the United States and Russia are left with a series of reciprocal moves that do not necessarily represent an escalation but certainly deepen the chasm between East and West.

The European Union recently renewed sanctions against Russia for another six months as part of a Western strategy to increase the costs to Putin to a degree that it changes his calculus.

At least for now, Putin's domestic political gain outweighs the international pain.

Sceptical response

US Defence Secretary Ash Carter, on a visit to Estonia, announced additional support for Nato's rapid reaction force.

While the prepositioning of equipment and increased exercises communicate the alliance's preparedness to defend its allies, the same Pew poll suggested that there is a discernible sentiment across "Old Europe", notably in Germany, against a military response, even if Russia attacks a Nato ally.

One key factor in that scepticism is Germany's preoccupation with keeping the European Union intact and the eurozone afloat.

In fact, if the EU fails to reach a revised financial agreement with Athens in time to meet a scheduled repayment to the International Monetary Fund on 30 June and Greece defaults, it may be forced out of the eurozone.

If that happens, the fallout could weaken either the existing European consensus on sanctions against Russia or their effectiveness, since Athens might increase its economic reliance on Moscow to help with its economic recovery.

Either way, Putin gains.

Challenging the system

Putin for his part pledged to strengthen Russia's nuclear forces, the only genuine strategic card that Russia has left. And it plays well with the home crowd.

Nato is also committed to helping Ukraine improve its ability to defend itself, a process that will be likely to take a decade or more.

Recognising that stability will take years to achieve under the best of circumstances, as there is a growing understanding that the crisis is larger than Ukraine.

Until now, Europe has been guided by a sensible policy of isolating Russia over Ukraine while leaving all doors open for political, economic and military co-operation if and when Russia stops its destabilisation strategy against Kiev.

For example, Russia still has an ambassador at Nato and all the structures for defence co-operation remain in place, if dormant.

But Putin is challenging how the international system works, the degree to which international norms will be enforced and what regional prerogatives his country should have. Russian policy under Putin is far more about counterbalancing than co-operating.

Thus, the new Nato with 28 member states finds itself wrestling with an old question: what to make of Russia and what are the implications for transatlantic security.

Long road

To the extent Ukraine is not a temporary diversion but a manifestation of a more permanent challenge to Western interests and values, it raises the question of whether the current Russian revisionism is a reflection of its leader or the system that produced him.

If the leader is driving the system, the existing antagonism could last as long as a decade. If the system is driving the leader, then it requires a fundamental rethinking of the strategy that has guided European and American policy since the end of the Cold War.

That's not a question that needs to be answered now. Putin and Russia are currently one and the same.

But just to put that in perspective, presidential campaigning is under way in America. If the next president serves two terms, he or she will still be dealing with Putin in his or her eighth year in office.

If there is another attempt at a reset with Russia down the road, it will be the president after next who makes that attempt.

PJ Crowley is a former US Assistant Secretary of State and now a professor of practice and fellow at The George Washington University Institute of Public Diplomacy & Global Communication.