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| Some Fear Departing Argentine President Has No Plans of Really Leaving | Some Fear Departing Argentine President Has No Plans of Really Leaving |
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| BUENOS AIRES — After nearly eight years in office, President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner of Argentina will stand down in a few months. But even as voters weigh their options for a new leader, and look ahead to a change of direction for the country, their departing president has other plans. | BUENOS AIRES — After nearly eight years in office, President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner of Argentina will stand down in a few months. But even as voters weigh their options for a new leader, and look ahead to a change of direction for the country, their departing president has other plans. |
| Far from relinquishing power after she leaves office in December, Mrs. Kirchner appears to be seeking to retain influence from behind the scenes. | Far from relinquishing power after she leaves office in December, Mrs. Kirchner appears to be seeking to retain influence from behind the scenes. |
| Argentines vote on Aug. 9 in open primary elections to decide the presidential nominee of each major party or alliance. To avoid splintering her party, the Front for Victory, Mrs. Kirchner, 62, effectively predetermined its nominee this month by endorsing Daniel Scioli, the governor of Buenos Aires Province, Argentina’s largest and most populous. | Argentines vote on Aug. 9 in open primary elections to decide the presidential nominee of each major party or alliance. To avoid splintering her party, the Front for Victory, Mrs. Kirchner, 62, effectively predetermined its nominee this month by endorsing Daniel Scioli, the governor of Buenos Aires Province, Argentina’s largest and most populous. |
| Mrs. Kirchner “is trying to continue as leader even though she is leaving government,” said Rosendo Fraga, an Argentine political analyst. Mr. Scioli, 58, needed Mrs. Kirchner’s endorsement to secure the support of the Front for Victory’s voters, who make up about 30 percent of the electorate. But that endorsement appears to have come at a price. | Mrs. Kirchner “is trying to continue as leader even though she is leaving government,” said Rosendo Fraga, an Argentine political analyst. Mr. Scioli, 58, needed Mrs. Kirchner’s endorsement to secure the support of the Front for Victory’s voters, who make up about 30 percent of the electorate. But that endorsement appears to have come at a price. |
| Mr. Scioli has clashed in the past with Mrs. Kirchner’s supporters, who see him as being too close to corporate interests. Just a few months ago, he was promoting business-friendly policies and greater dialogue between the government and the private sector, a gentle shift from the interventionist policies of Mrs. Kirchner. | Mr. Scioli has clashed in the past with Mrs. Kirchner’s supporters, who see him as being too close to corporate interests. Just a few months ago, he was promoting business-friendly policies and greater dialogue between the government and the private sector, a gentle shift from the interventionist policies of Mrs. Kirchner. |
| The president’s populist political movement, known as Kirchnerismo, has driven the expansion of social benefits, and a string of nationalizations, including pension funds of an oil company and an airline. These and other policies, including heavily taxing agricultural exports and enacting a law to curb media conglomerates, have pitted Mrs. Kirchner’s government against Argentina’s business establishment. She has also refused to pay off foreign hedge funds, which are suing the country over debts that remain unpaid after a default in 2002. | |
| Mrs. Kirchner had previously expressed some support for another candidate, Florencio Randazzo, the minister of interior and transportation, who espoused absolute loyalty to Kirchnerismo. | Mrs. Kirchner had previously expressed some support for another candidate, Florencio Randazzo, the minister of interior and transportation, who espoused absolute loyalty to Kirchnerismo. |
| But that all changed recently as Mr. Scioli sought Mrs. Kirchner’s support, and apparently acquiesced to her demands. In recent statements, he has called for the government to maintain its central role in the economy and has hinted that he would not be conciliatory to corporations or the foreign hedge funds either. | But that all changed recently as Mr. Scioli sought Mrs. Kirchner’s support, and apparently acquiesced to her demands. In recent statements, he has called for the government to maintain its central role in the economy and has hinted that he would not be conciliatory to corporations or the foreign hedge funds either. |
| He has even modified the color of his campaign posters, merging the orange he has used in the past with the traditional blue of the Front for Victory. | He has even modified the color of his campaign posters, merging the orange he has used in the past with the traditional blue of the Front for Victory. |
| “Scioli is going to be completely under the thumb of Cristina,” said Melanie Russo, a 22-year-old university student, reflecting a preference here for using Mrs. Kirchner’s first name. | “Scioli is going to be completely under the thumb of Cristina,” said Melanie Russo, a 22-year-old university student, reflecting a preference here for using Mrs. Kirchner’s first name. |
| Mr. Scioli also placated Mrs. Kirchner by selecting Carlos Zannini, one of her close aides, as his running mate. As legal secretary to the president, Mr. Zannini reviews bills and executive orders, and he is widely believed to have influenced the direction of Kirchnerismo since 2003, when he was appointed by Néstor Kirchner, Mrs. Kirchner’s late husband and predecessor. | Mr. Scioli also placated Mrs. Kirchner by selecting Carlos Zannini, one of her close aides, as his running mate. As legal secretary to the president, Mr. Zannini reviews bills and executive orders, and he is widely believed to have influenced the direction of Kirchnerismo since 2003, when he was appointed by Néstor Kirchner, Mrs. Kirchner’s late husband and predecessor. |
| “Scioli’s doing everything he can just to be president,” said Maria Victoria Murillo, a professor of political science at Columbia University who has written about the future of Kirchnerismo. “Once that’s achieved, we’ll see if he moves to build his own power base independent of Cristina. But she is trying to limit him.” | “Scioli’s doing everything he can just to be president,” said Maria Victoria Murillo, a professor of political science at Columbia University who has written about the future of Kirchnerismo. “Once that’s achieved, we’ll see if he moves to build his own power base independent of Cristina. But she is trying to limit him.” |
| The Argentine Constitution bars Mrs. Kirchner from running for a third consecutive term this year, although she will be allowed to run again in four years. Before Mr. Kirchner’s death in 2010 at 60, the couple had expected to prolong their stay in power by swapping places. | The Argentine Constitution bars Mrs. Kirchner from running for a third consecutive term this year, although she will be allowed to run again in four years. Before Mr. Kirchner’s death in 2010 at 60, the couple had expected to prolong their stay in power by swapping places. |
| Now many people view Mr. Scioli as a stopgap in Mrs. Kirchner’s plan to resume the presidency. | Now many people view Mr. Scioli as a stopgap in Mrs. Kirchner’s plan to resume the presidency. |
| “The president will continue to be the figurehead of Kirchnerismo, so it’s naturally an option to contemplate,” said Eduardo Jozami, 75, an author and human rights activist who is a prominent supporter of the Front for Victory, referring to the hypothetical plan. | “The president will continue to be the figurehead of Kirchnerismo, so it’s naturally an option to contemplate,” said Eduardo Jozami, 75, an author and human rights activist who is a prominent supporter of the Front for Victory, referring to the hypothetical plan. |
| Crucially, Mrs. Kirchner’s popularity is on the rise. Her approval rating at the end of May was 40 percent, according to Management and Fit, a Buenos Aires polling company, up from 30 percent in February, when she was in the depths of a political crisis after the mysterious death of a federal prosecutor. The poll included interviews with 2,400 people nationwide and the margin of sampling error was 2 percentage points. Even if Mr. Scioli has won Mrs. Kirchner’s endorsement, it may prove a Pyrrhic victory, analysts said, because it could hurt him among voters who want change. Mr. Scioli had already successfully courted some of those voters on his own. | Crucially, Mrs. Kirchner’s popularity is on the rise. Her approval rating at the end of May was 40 percent, according to Management and Fit, a Buenos Aires polling company, up from 30 percent in February, when she was in the depths of a political crisis after the mysterious death of a federal prosecutor. The poll included interviews with 2,400 people nationwide and the margin of sampling error was 2 percentage points. Even if Mr. Scioli has won Mrs. Kirchner’s endorsement, it may prove a Pyrrhic victory, analysts said, because it could hurt him among voters who want change. Mr. Scioli had already successfully courted some of those voters on his own. |
| “Scioli’s not making the decisions anymore; we have to start looking for something new,” said Luis Ulloa, 32, a municipal government administrative worker. Mr. Ulloa said he was now placing faith in Mauricio Macri, the leader of Republican Proposal, a center-right party, who is the opposition front-runner. | “Scioli’s not making the decisions anymore; we have to start looking for something new,” said Luis Ulloa, 32, a municipal government administrative worker. Mr. Ulloa said he was now placing faith in Mauricio Macri, the leader of Republican Proposal, a center-right party, who is the opposition front-runner. |
| Mr. Macri, who is the mayor of the city of Buenos Aires, appeals to many of those voters who believe Mrs. Kirchner’s economic policies have isolated the country and who see her as imperious. | Mr. Macri, who is the mayor of the city of Buenos Aires, appeals to many of those voters who believe Mrs. Kirchner’s economic policies have isolated the country and who see her as imperious. |
| To help attract foreign investors, Mr. Macri is offering less state interference in the economy, and has said he will settle with the hedge funds and eliminate unpopular currency controls. He has also promised to delegate more power to cabinet ministers. | To help attract foreign investors, Mr. Macri is offering less state interference in the economy, and has said he will settle with the hedge funds and eliminate unpopular currency controls. He has also promised to delegate more power to cabinet ministers. |
| It is not uncommon for Argentine presidents to attempt to influence the leadership of their successors, but they fail just as often. Notably, President Eduardo Duhalde, who stepped down in 2003, found it difficult to influence Mr. Kirchner, his successor. | It is not uncommon for Argentine presidents to attempt to influence the leadership of their successors, but they fail just as often. Notably, President Eduardo Duhalde, who stepped down in 2003, found it difficult to influence Mr. Kirchner, his successor. |
| “Duhalde wanted to do with Néstor Kirchner what Cristina Kirchner now wants to do with Scioli,” said Federico Finchelstein, an Argentine historian at the New School for Social Research in New York. “Duhalde failed and, if recent history prevails, Cristina Kirchner will also fail.” | “Duhalde wanted to do with Néstor Kirchner what Cristina Kirchner now wants to do with Scioli,” said Federico Finchelstein, an Argentine historian at the New School for Social Research in New York. “Duhalde failed and, if recent history prevails, Cristina Kirchner will also fail.” |
| But even if Mr. Scioli wins the presidency, Mrs. Kirchner is likely to preserve considerable influence over his government through her loyalists in Congress. | But even if Mr. Scioli wins the presidency, Mrs. Kirchner is likely to preserve considerable influence over his government through her loyalists in Congress. |
| The Front for Victory recently created a list of congressional candidates made up of politicians who have risen from the ranks of La Cámpora, a political youth organization loyal to Mrs. Kirchner. | The Front for Victory recently created a list of congressional candidates made up of politicians who have risen from the ranks of La Cámpora, a political youth organization loyal to Mrs. Kirchner. |
| Among the candidates are Máximo Kirchner, 38, her son, who has never held elected office; Axel Kicillof, her economy minister; and Eduardo de Pedro, her chief of staff. | Among the candidates are Máximo Kirchner, 38, her son, who has never held elected office; Axel Kicillof, her economy minister; and Eduardo de Pedro, her chief of staff. |
| Reflecting expectations of Mrs. Kirchner’s influence beyond her presidency, some of her supporters recently gathered on a patio of the presidential palace, singing “The woman boss is not leaving.” | Reflecting expectations of Mrs. Kirchner’s influence beyond her presidency, some of her supporters recently gathered on a patio of the presidential palace, singing “The woman boss is not leaving.” |
| For many Argentines, that would be a welcome situation. | For many Argentines, that would be a welcome situation. |
| “She’s built a stronger state,” said Juan Carlos Giannantonio, 65, a used-book seller who likes Mrs. Kirchner’s focus on lifting Argentines out of poverty and the role her government plays in the economy. “And now she’s within the centrifuge of power, she can’t step out for a place on the margins.” | “She’s built a stronger state,” said Juan Carlos Giannantonio, 65, a used-book seller who likes Mrs. Kirchner’s focus on lifting Argentines out of poverty and the role her government plays in the economy. “And now she’s within the centrifuge of power, she can’t step out for a place on the margins.” |