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Greek debt crisis: Alexis Tsipras asks for new bailout - live updates Greece debt crisis: Tsipras asks for new bailout - live updates
(34 minutes later)
3.47pm BST15:47
Here’s the letter which Greece has sent to the Eurogroup, asking for a new two-year loan.
Tsipras' letter to the #Eurogroup requesting 3rd bailout, debt restructuring. #Greece pic.twitter.com/ienUCymoVo
You can see that Athens is also asking, again, for its current bailout to be extended beyond tonight for “a short period of time” to avoid a technical default.
(such an extension now seems almost impossible, though, as it would need parliamentary approval)
3.35pm BST15:35
Euro finance ministers conference call tonight
Newsflash: eurozone finance ministers are going to speak in three and a half hours to discuss Greece’s request for a third bailout.
They are due to speak at 6pm BST, or 8pm Athens time.
Extraordinary Eurogroup teleconference tonight 19:00 Brussels time to discuss official request of Greek government received this afternoon
3.32pm BST15:32
Vince Scarpetta, of the Open Europe thinktank, agrees that Greece would probably face a similar list of ‘reforms’ if it took a third bailout.
New ESM programme would mean new Memorandum. Can't see conditions attached changing significantly from what they are now. #Greece
But the debt relief question remains critical here.... could Tsipras get enough to persuade his MPs to back it, and persuade the country that he’d got the best deal possible?
3.27pm BST15:27
Greece’s proposal for a new two-year bailout has just arrived in Brussels, according to Marco Zatterin of Italian newspaper La Stampa.
The new Greek proposal has landend in Brussels (Eu sources) La nuova proposta di Tsipras è arrivata a Bruxelles (fonti Ue) @la_stampa
So now, we wait to discover exactly what Greece is suggesting.....
3.22pm BST15:223.22pm BST15:22
If Greece does get a third bailout, it would inevitably have to agree new economic reforms (or conditionality), as Credit Agricole’s Frederik Ducrozet points out:If Greece does get a third bailout, it would inevitably have to agree new economic reforms (or conditionality), as Credit Agricole’s Frederik Ducrozet points out:
Greece asks for a 2-year bailout that includes financing and debt restructuring. With conditionality, or a free lunch?Greece asks for a 2-year bailout that includes financing and debt restructuring. With conditionality, or a free lunch?
And a third bailout would have to be agreed by all other eurozone governments; Germany’s Bundestag is in NO mood to give the current Greek government any concessions.And a third bailout would have to be agreed by all other eurozone governments; Germany’s Bundestag is in NO mood to give the current Greek government any concessions.
3.16pm BST15:163.16pm BST15:16
Many experts have been predicting for months that Greece would need a third bailout, if it couldn’t return to the financial markets this summer (as it clearly cannot).Many experts have been predicting for months that Greece would need a third bailout, if it couldn’t return to the financial markets this summer (as it clearly cannot).
But the constant wrangling over the second bailout has meant that no discussion could take place about a third deal.But the constant wrangling over the second bailout has meant that no discussion could take place about a third deal.
The imminent death of Greece’s second bailout means the situation changes.The imminent death of Greece’s second bailout means the situation changes.
But it didn’t have to be done this way, as the FT’s Peter Spiegel points out:But it didn’t have to be done this way, as the FT’s Peter Spiegel points out:
Clever: #Greece is proposing a new #ESM programme, which is basically a 3rd bailout. But current bailout would still expire.Clever: #Greece is proposing a new #ESM programme, which is basically a 3rd bailout. But current bailout would still expire.
This is probably what @atsipras should have done back in Jan: let current bailout expire & neg a new 3rd programme. Less bad blood back thenThis is probably what @atsipras should have done back in Jan: let current bailout expire & neg a new 3rd programme. Less bad blood back then
3.12pm BST15:123.12pm BST15:12
Our Athens correspondent, Helena Smith, is hearing the deputy prime minister Yannis Dragasakis will announce news of the proposed third bailout tonight.Our Athens correspondent, Helena Smith, is hearing the deputy prime minister Yannis Dragasakis will announce news of the proposed third bailout tonight.
Insiders are saying that the Greek prime minister will fly to Brussels imminently.Insiders are saying that the Greek prime minister will fly to Brussels imminently.
How Tsipras will make the about turn - and save face - will be interesting. The issue of debt relief is key....How Tsipras will make the about turn - and save face - will be interesting. The issue of debt relief is key....
3.05pm BST15:053.05pm BST15:05
The eurozone crisis simply cannot break its addiction for last-minute developments and late-night meetings.The eurozone crisis simply cannot break its addiction for last-minute developments and late-night meetings.
But this request for a third bailout, as second programme enters its final hours, is a classic....But this request for a third bailout, as second programme enters its final hours, is a classic....
Here we go again at eight hours and eight minutes to midnight. Greece proposes two-year rescue deal with @ESM_PressHere we go again at eight hours and eight minutes to midnight. Greece proposes two-year rescue deal with @ESM_Press
3.01pm BST15:013.01pm BST15:01
Greece: we still want better termsGreece: we still want better terms
Announcing the remarkable news that it now wants a third bailout, the Greek government says:Announcing the remarkable news that it now wants a third bailout, the Greek government says:
“From the first moment, we made clear that the decision to hold a referendum is not the end but the continuation of negotiations for better terms for the Greek people...“From the first moment, we made clear that the decision to hold a referendum is not the end but the continuation of negotiations for better terms for the Greek people...
The Greek government will until the end seek a viable agreement within the euro.”The Greek government will until the end seek a viable agreement within the euro.”
2.53pm BST14:532.53pm BST14:53
GREECE PROPOSES A THIRD BAILOUTGREECE PROPOSES A THIRD BAILOUT
The Greek government has proposed a new Two-Year bailout programme, according to news breaking in Athens.The Greek government has proposed a new Two-Year bailout programme, according to news breaking in Athens.
This two-year programme would be supplied under the European Stability Mechanism (Europe’s bailout fund)This two-year programme would be supplied under the European Stability Mechanism (Europe’s bailout fund)
And – crucially – would run alongside a debt restructuring. And it wouldn’t include the International Monetary Fund.And – crucially – would run alongside a debt restructuring. And it wouldn’t include the International Monetary Fund.
In a statement from Alexis Tsipras’s office, cited by Reuters, Greece says it is still at the negotiating table, and seeking “a viable solution, under the end, aimed at staying in the euro.”In a statement from Alexis Tsipras’s office, cited by Reuters, Greece says it is still at the negotiating table, and seeking “a viable solution, under the end, aimed at staying in the euro.”
*GREECE ASKS FOR 2-YR BAILOUT PROGRAM FROM ESM: PM'S OFFICE*GREECE ASKS FOR 2-YR BAILOUT PROGRAM FROM ESM: PM'S OFFICE
This could be a very significant development, depending on how creditors react. Or it could be very swiftly shot down.This could be a very significant development, depending on how creditors react. Or it could be very swiftly shot down.
No word yet on how large this programme would be, though, let alone what conditions Greece is prepared to accept.No word yet on how large this programme would be, though, let alone what conditions Greece is prepared to accept.
One important point -- this would not be an extension of the current bailout (which was made under the EFSF and expires at midnight) but a whole new programmme. That means a discussion of debt relief would be an option.One important point -- this would not be an extension of the current bailout (which was made under the EFSF and expires at midnight) but a whole new programmme. That means a discussion of debt relief would be an option.
Details and reaction to folllow....Details and reaction to folllow....
Updated at 3.04pm BSTUpdated at 3.04pm BST
2.34pm BST14:342.34pm BST14:34
Over in the Greek capital, a press briefing with foreign journalists has just been cancelled - so cabinet ministers can gather for an urgent meeting.Over in the Greek capital, a press briefing with foreign journalists has just been cancelled - so cabinet ministers can gather for an urgent meeting.
The briefing in Athens for foreign journalists was cancelled “due to urgent meetings with ministers"The briefing in Athens for foreign journalists was cancelled “due to urgent meetings with ministers"
The Eurogroup president, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, has also just pulled out of a TV interview - citing “urgent obligation”.The Eurogroup president, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, has also just pulled out of a TV interview - citing “urgent obligation”.
So much urgency, and so little time left.....So much urgency, and so little time left.....
2.12pm BST14:122.12pm BST14:12
Lunchtime summaryLunchtime summary
As tonight’s deadline approaches for Greece to pay €1.6bn to the IMF and agree a deal before its bailout extension runs out, there are hopes that the country and its creditors can still come to some sort of deal.As tonight’s deadline approaches for Greece to pay €1.6bn to the IMF and agree a deal before its bailout extension runs out, there are hopes that the country and its creditors can still come to some sort of deal.
Finance minister Yanis Varoufakis has said plainly that Greece will not pay the IMF - an event which ratings agencies would not consider as a default - but is still hopeful of an agreement.Finance minister Yanis Varoufakis has said plainly that Greece will not pay the IMF - an event which ratings agencies would not consider as a default - but is still hopeful of an agreement.
And there are reports that Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras may be ready to agree a deal, and could even travel to Brussels tonight. Tsipras has also reportedly had telephone contact today with EU president Jean-Claude Juncker, the head of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi and European parliament president Martin Schultz.And there are reports that Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras may be ready to agree a deal, and could even travel to Brussels tonight. Tsipras has also reportedly had telephone contact today with EU president Jean-Claude Juncker, the head of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi and European parliament president Martin Schultz.
But it is not clear whether there have been any changes to what Greece’s creditors proposed on Friday, which was rejected in favour of a referendum to be held on Sunday. Greece’s chief negotiator Euclid Tsakalotos has talked of new proposals but German chancellor Angela Merkel has said she has not heard of any changes since Friday.But it is not clear whether there have been any changes to what Greece’s creditors proposed on Friday, which was rejected in favour of a referendum to be held on Sunday. Greece’s chief negotiator Euclid Tsakalotos has talked of new proposals but German chancellor Angela Merkel has said she has not heard of any changes since Friday.
Meanwhile Reuters reported:Meanwhile Reuters reported:
EC president Jean-Claude Juncker had offered to convene an emergency meeting of euro zone finance ministers on Tuesday to approve an aid payment to prevent Athens defaulting, if Tsipras sent a written acceptance of the terms. He also dangled the prospect of a negotiation on debt rescheduling later this year if Athens said “yes”.EC president Jean-Claude Juncker had offered to convene an emergency meeting of euro zone finance ministers on Tuesday to approve an aid payment to prevent Athens defaulting, if Tsipras sent a written acceptance of the terms. He also dangled the prospect of a negotiation on debt rescheduling later this year if Athens said “yes”.
Markets have come off their worst levels, with both Germany’s Dax and France’s Cac both marginally in positive territory after early falls.Markets have come off their worst levels, with both Germany’s Dax and France’s Cac both marginally in positive territory after early falls.
Elsewhere Spain’s prime minister Mariano Rajoy added his voice to the chorus of European leaders saying that a no vote in Sunday’s referendum means Greece will have to leave the eurozone. But German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble went against the trend by saying that was not necessarily the case.Elsewhere Spain’s prime minister Mariano Rajoy added his voice to the chorus of European leaders saying that a no vote in Sunday’s referendum means Greece will have to leave the eurozone. But German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble went against the trend by saying that was not necessarily the case.
And Greece denied plans to re-instate the drachma despite a tweet to that effect by one of the country’s MPs.And Greece denied plans to re-instate the drachma despite a tweet to that effect by one of the country’s MPs.
1.39pm BST13:391.39pm BST13:39
Here’s Bloomberg on Schäuble’s comments:Here’s Bloomberg on Schäuble’s comments:
German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble told lawmakers in Berlin that Greece would stay in the euro for the time being if Greek voters reject austerity in a referendum scheduled this week, according to three people present.German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble told lawmakers in Berlin that Greece would stay in the euro for the time being if Greek voters reject austerity in a referendum scheduled this week, according to three people present.
Schaeuble also said the European Central Bank would do what’s needed to protect the euro if Greeks voted against the bailout terms in the July 5 referendum, according to the people, all of whom participated in the closed-door meeting on Tuesday. They asked not to be identified, citing the private nature of the discussion.Schaeuble also said the European Central Bank would do what’s needed to protect the euro if Greeks voted against the bailout terms in the July 5 referendum, according to the people, all of whom participated in the closed-door meeting on Tuesday. They asked not to be identified, citing the private nature of the discussion.
The German Finance Ministry declined to comment.The German Finance Ministry declined to comment.
Updated at 1.44pm BSTUpdated at 1.44pm BST
1.32pm BST13:321.32pm BST13:32
German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble seems to have gone against the trend, by saying Greece would not have to leave the euro if it voted no in Sunday’s referendum, according to Reuters.German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble seems to have gone against the trend, by saying Greece would not have to leave the euro if it voted no in Sunday’s referendum, according to Reuters.
Updated at 1.44pm BSTUpdated at 1.44pm BST
1.21pm BST13:211.21pm BST13:21
John HooperJohn Hooper
Meanwhile one thing working against the No campaign in the Greek referendum is the broad media support for the country accepting the terms on offer from its creditors. John Hooper reports from Athens:Meanwhile one thing working against the No campaign in the Greek referendum is the broad media support for the country accepting the terms on offer from its creditors. John Hooper reports from Athens:
Television is overwhelmingly anti-Syriza. All the big, privately-owned channels – Alpha, ANT1, Mega, Star and Skai – lean towards accepting the lenders’ offer to secure Greece’s position in the euro zone.Television is overwhelmingly anti-Syriza. All the big, privately-owned channels – Alpha, ANT1, Mega, Star and Skai – lean towards accepting the lenders’ offer to secure Greece’s position in the euro zone.
The exception is state-owned ERT -- unsurprisingly since it was put back on the air by the current government after being shut down as an economy measure in 2013.The exception is state-owned ERT -- unsurprisingly since it was put back on the air by the current government after being shut down as an economy measure in 2013.
There was a pretty easy way this week of telling which way a Greek newspaper leaned in the debate – the alarm quotient in its coverage. “Pensions with tears” screamed the headline on Tuesday’s edition of centre-right Dimokratia over a story about how some beneficiaries had been unable to get their pensions after the imposition of capital controls on Sunday night. Ta Nea, EU-friendly and centre left, had “Payment suspensions throughout business: only cash for transactions.”There was a pretty easy way this week of telling which way a Greek newspaper leaned in the debate – the alarm quotient in its coverage. “Pensions with tears” screamed the headline on Tuesday’s edition of centre-right Dimokratia over a story about how some beneficiaries had been unable to get their pensions after the imposition of capital controls on Sunday night. Ta Nea, EU-friendly and centre left, had “Payment suspensions throughout business: only cash for transactions.”
But leafing through Avgi, the only major daily close to Syriza, you might think nothing much out of the ordinary was happening in Greece this week. The only concession to a move that has made headlines around the world was a story on its front page headlined: “Side-effects of capital controls under control.”But leafing through Avgi, the only major daily close to Syriza, you might think nothing much out of the ordinary was happening in Greece this week. The only concession to a move that has made headlines around the world was a story on its front page headlined: “Side-effects of capital controls under control.”
With the conservative broadsheet, Kathimerini, centre-right Eleftheros Typos and centre-left Efimerida ton Syntakton also favouring a compromise, the rejectionists are heavily outgunned in the Greece’s lively and extensive press. Even Rizospastis, the official newspaper of the Communist Party of Greece (KKE), has an ambiguous stance.With the conservative broadsheet, Kathimerini, centre-right Eleftheros Typos and centre-left Efimerida ton Syntakton also favouring a compromise, the rejectionists are heavily outgunned in the Greece’s lively and extensive press. Even Rizospastis, the official newspaper of the Communist Party of Greece (KKE), has an ambiguous stance.
KKE’s 15 MPs voted against the referendum, but now it is taking place, the party is recommending a ‘no’ vote. Rizospastis said it was urging voters to download a special ballot paper to “say no to both”.KKE’s 15 MPs voted against the referendum, but now it is taking place, the party is recommending a ‘no’ vote. Rizospastis said it was urging voters to download a special ballot paper to “say no to both”.
Updated at 1.22pm BSTUpdated at 1.22pm BST
1.18pm BST13:181.18pm BST13:18
Bookies William Hill have cut their odds on a No vote in the Greek referendum from 2/1 to 5/4, and lengthened the odds for a Yes vote from 4/11 to 4/7. ‘All the serious money so far has been for a ‘No’ vote’ said Hill’s spokesman Graham Sharpe.Bookies William Hill have cut their odds on a No vote in the Greek referendum from 2/1 to 5/4, and lengthened the odds for a Yes vote from 4/11 to 4/7. ‘All the serious money so far has been for a ‘No’ vote’ said Hill’s spokesman Graham Sharpe.
Hills now offer 7/4 that Greece will leave the Eurozone during 2015, 2/5 that the country will stay in.Hills now offer 7/4 that Greece will leave the Eurozone during 2015, 2/5 that the country will stay in.
1.01pm BST13:011.01pm BST13:01
The effect of the Greek crisis on everyday lives is being shown again, as Fitch Ratings reports that mortgage arrears have risen during the protracted negotiations between the government and its creditors. Fitch says:The effect of the Greek crisis on everyday lives is being shown again, as Fitch Ratings reports that mortgage arrears have risen during the protracted negotiations between the government and its creditors. Fitch says:
A deteriorating economy and almost total absence of bank credit may have combined with retail borrowers withholding loan repayments during the extended period of uncertainty.A deteriorating economy and almost total absence of bank credit may have combined with retail borrowers withholding loan repayments during the extended period of uncertainty.
Some mortgage borrowers may already be strategically entering early-stage arrears as the crisis damages the banking sector. They may also be choosing to make payments on other debts rather than mortgages as they are aware that banks are unlikely to enforce against their property collateral.Some mortgage borrowers may already be strategically entering early-stage arrears as the crisis damages the banking sector. They may also be choosing to make payments on other debts rather than mortgages as they are aware that banks are unlikely to enforce against their property collateral.
Greek mortgage performance appeared to be stabilising before the January elections. Loans with at least one monthly instalment overdue represented around 16% of total loan balance. But they climbed to 16.9% in February in the aftermath of the elections, and continued to rise even after a temporary bailout programme extension was secured at the end of that month, reaching 17.3% in May. We expect early-stage arrears to have increased further during June.Greek mortgage performance appeared to be stabilising before the January elections. Loans with at least one monthly instalment overdue represented around 16% of total loan balance. But they climbed to 16.9% in February in the aftermath of the elections, and continued to rise even after a temporary bailout programme extension was secured at the end of that month, reaching 17.3% in May. We expect early-stage arrears to have increased further during June.
The full report is here:The full report is here:
Fitch: Greek Tensions Have Pushed Up Mortgage ArrearsFitch: Greek Tensions Have Pushed Up Mortgage Arrears
12.52pm BST12:5212.52pm BST12:52
It is still unclear whether there is anything new on the table.It is still unclear whether there is anything new on the table.
Greece’s chief negotiator Euclid Tsakalotos seemed to be suggesting earlier that there was.Greece’s chief negotiator Euclid Tsakalotos seemed to be suggesting earlier that there was.
But Reuters is quoting German chancellor Angela Merkel saying that the last offer she is aware of from the Commission is the one from Friday of last week. And...But Reuters is quoting German chancellor Angela Merkel saying that the last offer she is aware of from the Commission is the one from Friday of last week. And...
#Merkel: I see no concrete signs of a last minute deal with #Greece https://t.co/ofL0wSXIjE#Merkel: I see no concrete signs of a last minute deal with #Greece https://t.co/ofL0wSXIjE
Updated at 1.03pm BSTUpdated at 1.03pm BST
12.33pm BST12:3312.33pm BST12:33
Meanwhile, as a change of pace, here is a piece of video of yesterday’s rally in Athens:Meanwhile, as a change of pace, here is a piece of video of yesterday’s rally in Athens:
12.27pm BST12:2712.27pm BST12:27
The Greek prime minister’s office has also announced that Tsipras has had telephone contact today with EU president Jean-Claude Juncker, the head of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi and European parliament president Martin Schultz, reports Helena.The Greek prime minister’s office has also announced that Tsipras has had telephone contact today with EU president Jean-Claude Juncker, the head of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi and European parliament president Martin Schultz, reports Helena.
12.23pm BST12:2312.23pm BST12:23
Tsipras could travel to Brussels tonight to discuss deal - reportsTsipras could travel to Brussels tonight to discuss deal - reports
Helena SmithHelena Smith
Helena Smith has more on a possible deal, with talk that Alexis Tsipras may be set to travel to Brussels soon to discuss it:Helena Smith has more on a possible deal, with talk that Alexis Tsipras may be set to travel to Brussels soon to discuss it:
Reports are mounting that the Greek prime minister has not only accepted a deal but will travel to Brussels, possibly as early as this evening, to discuss it with senior EU officials.Reports are mounting that the Greek prime minister has not only accepted a deal but will travel to Brussels, possibly as early as this evening, to discuss it with senior EU officials.
The deal, based on reforms proposed by EU commission president Jean-Claude Juncker late last night, is believed to have been rubber stamped at a meeting of senior government official held at the prime minister’s office, the Megaron Maximou, this morning. The German daily, Bild, is also backing up the reports, saying Tsipras has had contact with high ranking EU officials whom he will meet imminently. “The prime minister’s plane is at the ready,” the paper said.The deal, based on reforms proposed by EU commission president Jean-Claude Juncker late last night, is believed to have been rubber stamped at a meeting of senior government official held at the prime minister’s office, the Megaron Maximou, this morning. The German daily, Bild, is also backing up the reports, saying Tsipras has had contact with high ranking EU officials whom he will meet imminently. “The prime minister’s plane is at the ready,” the paper said.
Speaking to Mega TV, Konstantinos Michalos who heads the Athens Chamber of Commerce and Industry and is widely respected in Greek economic circles, reinforced that, he, too, had a growing sense that “positive developments” would be seen late this evening.Speaking to Mega TV, Konstantinos Michalos who heads the Athens Chamber of Commerce and Industry and is widely respected in Greek economic circles, reinforced that, he, too, had a growing sense that “positive developments” would be seen late this evening.
“I have a positive feeling that we will have developments, positive developments late this evening,” he told the station saying he was basing his optimism on contacts he had had earlier today with senior officials in the Eurogroup of euro area finance ministers.“I have a positive feeling that we will have developments, positive developments late this evening,” he told the station saying he was basing his optimism on contacts he had had earlier today with senior officials in the Eurogroup of euro area finance ministers.
“The situation in the market place is a nightmare and by the end of the week will be a lot worse. It is crucial that we get this agreement. Yes, the fiscal measures [being demanded by lenders] are hard but we know them, we can deal with them. The alternative is catastrophe, a situation difficult for the human mind to comprehend.”“The situation in the market place is a nightmare and by the end of the week will be a lot worse. It is crucial that we get this agreement. Yes, the fiscal measures [being demanded by lenders] are hard but we know them, we can deal with them. The alternative is catastrophe, a situation difficult for the human mind to comprehend.”
Greece’s head of state, president Prokopis Pavlopoulos has also waded in and has made several telephone calls to senior EU officials. A former conservative minister, Pavlopoulos has said he “will go to the boundaries of my authorities” to ensure the country remains in the single currency and by extension Europe.Greece’s head of state, president Prokopis Pavlopoulos has also waded in and has made several telephone calls to senior EU officials. A former conservative minister, Pavlopoulos has said he “will go to the boundaries of my authorities” to ensure the country remains in the single currency and by extension Europe.
12.22pm BST12:2212.22pm BST12:22
Despite that, hopes are indeed growing for a deal.Despite that, hopes are indeed growing for a deal.
Dep For Min (chief negotiator), Euclid Tsakalotos tells BBC that new proposals from Troika submitted.He hints at deal before referendumDep For Min (chief negotiator), Euclid Tsakalotos tells BBC that new proposals from Troika submitted.He hints at deal before referendum
Updated at 12.30pm BSTUpdated at 12.30pm BST
12.18pm BST12:1812.18pm BST12:18
Varoufakis says Greece will not pay IMFVaroufakis says Greece will not pay IMF
Meanwhile Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis has said the country will not make the €1.6bn IMF payment on Tuesday.Meanwhile Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis has said the country will not make the €1.6bn IMF payment on Tuesday.
But he still hopes for a deal with creditors....But he still hopes for a deal with creditors....
12.06pm BST12:0612.06pm BST12:06
More from Greece’s chief negotiator Euclid Tsakalotos:More from Greece’s chief negotiator Euclid Tsakalotos:
Greece's Tsakalotos: If Greece Gets A Deal If Cannot Refuse, Then It Will Reconsider Vote - BBG $EURUSDGreece's Tsakalotos: If Greece Gets A Deal If Cannot Refuse, Then It Will Reconsider Vote - BBG $EURUSD
12.00pm BST12:0012.00pm BST12:00
Meanwhile, more from the EU Commission spokesman:Meanwhile, more from the EU Commission spokesman:
'When the president speaks, we shut up,' @MargSchinas declines to interpret @JunckerEU's 'suicide' comments yesterday'When the president speaks, we shut up,' @MargSchinas declines to interpret @JunckerEU's 'suicide' comments yesterday
This refers to Juncker’s comment yesterday about “not choosing suicide over death.”This refers to Juncker’s comment yesterday about “not choosing suicide over death.”
11.55am BST11:5511.55am BST11:55
Uh oh:Uh oh:
BREAKING: German government official says it is now too late for an extension of the Greek bailout programme.BREAKING: German government official says it is now too late for an extension of the Greek bailout programme.
11.51am BST11:5111.51am BST11:51
Greek television is now reporting that the country’s government is sending its own proposals to creditors:Greek television is now reporting that the country’s government is sending its own proposals to creditors:
Skai TV reports that Greek gov't sending its own proposal to institutions #Greece #euroSkai TV reports that Greek gov't sending its own proposal to institutions #Greece #euro
Updated at 12.05pm BSTUpdated at 12.05pm BST
11.48am BST11:4811.48am BST11:48
And apparently EC president Juncker has no plans to visit Greece before the referendum.And apparently EC president Juncker has no plans to visit Greece before the referendum.
11.42am BST11:4211.42am BST11:42
Confirmation that contact between the two sides is underway, but so far no real movement, according to the EU commission spokesman. Reuters reports:Confirmation that contact between the two sides is underway, but so far no real movement, according to the EU commission spokesman. Reuters reports:
Greece has not yet made any movement in response to a last-minute bid by creditors to broker a deal to end a deadlock over the Greek debt crisis, the European Commission said on Tuesday.Greece has not yet made any movement in response to a last-minute bid by creditors to broker a deal to end a deadlock over the Greek debt crisis, the European Commission said on Tuesday.
Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras called European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker on Monday night and Juncker, after speaking to the chair of euro zone finance ministers Jeroen Dijsselbloem, explained what a last-minute deal could look like, Commission spokesman Margaritis Schinas told reporters.Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras called European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker on Monday night and Juncker, after speaking to the chair of euro zone finance ministers Jeroen Dijsselbloem, explained what a last-minute deal could look like, Commission spokesman Margaritis Schinas told reporters.
“This would require a move from the Greek government which President Juncker asked (for) before midnight last night. As we speak, this move has not yet been received, registered, and time is now narrowing,” Schinas said.“This would require a move from the Greek government which President Juncker asked (for) before midnight last night. As we speak, this move has not yet been received, registered, and time is now narrowing,” Schinas said.
Contacts were under way with the Greek government on Tuesday however, Schinas said.Contacts were under way with the Greek government on Tuesday however, Schinas said.
.@atsipras called @JunckerEU last night.#Greek gov has 2 accept the proposal of Friday night,gov has to campaign yes confirms @MargSchinas.@atsipras called @JunckerEU last night.#Greek gov has 2 accept the proposal of Friday night,gov has to campaign yes confirms @MargSchinas
11.38am BST11:3811.38am BST11:38
Juncker's Monday offer same as before, says EC spokesmanJuncker's Monday offer same as before, says EC spokesman
Some clarity about what offer EC president Jean-Claude Juncker made last night to Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras, and it seems like it was the same offer as before according to the EU commission spokesman Margaritis Schinas:Some clarity about what offer EC president Jean-Claude Juncker made last night to Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras, and it seems like it was the same offer as before according to the EU commission spokesman Margaritis Schinas:
At midday presser @MargSchinas makes clear @JunckerEU proposal last nite was what was on table since Sun. So not really a new offer #GreeceAt midday presser @MargSchinas makes clear @JunckerEU proposal last nite was what was on table since Sun. So not really a new offer #Greece
Updated at 11.44am BSTUpdated at 11.44am BST
11.31am BST11:3111.31am BST11:31
And another piece of housekeeping.And another piece of housekeeping.
Eurozone inflation slowed in June from 0.3% year on year to 0.2%, in line with economists’ forecasts.Eurozone inflation slowed in June from 0.3% year on year to 0.2%, in line with economists’ forecasts.
Meanwhile eurozone unemployment came in at 11.1% in May, the same level as in April and - again - in line with expectations.Meanwhile eurozone unemployment came in at 11.1% in May, the same level as in April and - again - in line with expectations.
11.25am BST11:2511.25am BST11:25
The European Commission seems to be showing little sign of bending:The European Commission seems to be showing little sign of bending:
(snaps from Reuters)(snaps from Reuters)
11.22am BST11:2211.22am BST11:22
Danuta Huebner, chair of the committee on constitutional affairs at the European Parliament, has tweeted about the legality of Grexit:Danuta Huebner, chair of the committee on constitutional affairs at the European Parliament, has tweeted about the legality of Grexit:
A member state's exit from #EMU without a parallel withdrawal from the EU, would be legally inconceivable #Greece https://t.co/UyeHZQctVXA member state's exit from #EMU without a parallel withdrawal from the EU, would be legally inconceivable #Greece https://t.co/UyeHZQctVX
A Member State's expulsion from the EU or #EMU would be legally next to impossible #Greece @EU_Commission http://t.co/ApLWqrkGNwA Member State's expulsion from the EU or #EMU would be legally next to impossible #Greece @EU_Commission http://t.co/ApLWqrkGNw
11.16am BST11:1611.16am BST11:16
Greek banks would be solvent for up to 5 days in event of default - ECB supervisorGreek banks would be solvent for up to 5 days in event of default - ECB supervisor
Whether or not it would be a default if Greece misses its €1.6bn payment due to the IMF by tonight, Greek banks would struggle to remain solvent for many days according to a European Central Bank supervisor. Reuters reports:Whether or not it would be a default if Greece misses its €1.6bn payment due to the IMF by tonight, Greek banks would struggle to remain solvent for many days according to a European Central Bank supervisor. Reuters reports:
Asked how long Greek banks could hold out were the country to miss a €1.6bn payment to the International Monetary Fund on Tuesday, [the ECB’s} Felix Hufeld said they could be considered solvent for up to five days.Asked how long Greek banks could hold out were the country to miss a €1.6bn payment to the International Monetary Fund on Tuesday, [the ECB’s} Felix Hufeld said they could be considered solvent for up to five days.
“It’s a matter of days,” Hufeld, who sits on the ECB supervisory board that decides whether Greek banks are still solvent, told the Frankfurt business journalists’ club late on Monday, in remarks set for release on Tuesday.“It’s a matter of days,” Hufeld, who sits on the ECB supervisory board that decides whether Greek banks are still solvent, told the Frankfurt business journalists’ club late on Monday, in remarks set for release on Tuesday.
“You can argue for hours about whether it’s two, three, four or five days,” he said.“You can argue for hours about whether it’s two, three, four or five days,” he said.
The remarks by Hufeld, who also heads German banking watchdog Bafin, underline the gravity of the situation facing Greece’s banks immediately after a missed payment to the International Monetary Fund and an end of its bailout programme.The remarks by Hufeld, who also heads German banking watchdog Bafin, underline the gravity of the situation facing Greece’s banks immediately after a missed payment to the International Monetary Fund and an end of its bailout programme.
But they also indicate that the ECB would not immediately deem the banks bust, thereby cutting their access to central bank funding ahead of a bailout vote on Sunday.But they also indicate that the ECB would not immediately deem the banks bust, thereby cutting their access to central bank funding ahead of a bailout vote on Sunday.
11.04am BST11:0411.04am BST11:04
Government denies talk of plans to re-instate drachmaGovernment denies talk of plans to re-instate drachma
Over in Athens, the govermment has hotly denied that it is drafting plans to re-instate the drachma as suggested by the pro-European Potami party MP Harry Theoharis in a tweet earlier today, reports Helena Smith.Over in Athens, the govermment has hotly denied that it is drafting plans to re-instate the drachma as suggested by the pro-European Potami party MP Harry Theoharis in a tweet earlier today, reports Helena Smith.
The centrist’s MP’s assertion was beyond the bounds “of science fiction” prime minister Alexis Tsipras’ leftist-led administration announced in a statement.The centrist’s MP’s assertion was beyond the bounds “of science fiction” prime minister Alexis Tsipras’ leftist-led administration announced in a statement.
“It constitutes a monument of irresponsibility,” the statement said. “Disgrace and nothing more.”“It constitutes a monument of irresponsibility,” the statement said. “Disgrace and nothing more.”
Theoharis, who not that long ago had the thankless task of heading Greece’s tax collection agency, had tweeted that a group from the general accountacy office, dedicated to reintroducing the old currrency, had already set up shop in the prime minister’s office, the Megaron Maximou.Theoharis, who not that long ago had the thankless task of heading Greece’s tax collection agency, had tweeted that a group from the general accountacy office, dedicated to reintroducing the old currrency, had already set up shop in the prime minister’s office, the Megaron Maximou.
10.55am BST10:5510.55am BST10:55
But of course, nothing is ever as easy as both sides agreeing something in a straightforward way, as the FT’s Peter Spiegel indicates:But of course, nothing is ever as easy as both sides agreeing something in a straightforward way, as the FT’s Peter Spiegel indicates:
Sr #Greece off'l denies to me that @atsipras reconsidering 11th-hr @JunckerEU offer. But Athens may propose something else this afternoonSr #Greece off'l denies to me that @atsipras reconsidering 11th-hr @JunckerEU offer. But Athens may propose something else this afternoon
Updated at 10.55am BSTUpdated at 10.55am BST
10.48am BST10:4810.48am BST10:48
As a reminder, here’s our handy guide to the payments Greece is due to make:As a reminder, here’s our handy guide to the payments Greece is due to make:
10.44am BST10:4410.44am BST10:44
Meanwhile the reports that Greek prime minister Alex Tsipras is considering the latest EU proposals - and has told Brussels as much - have lifted markets off their worst levels.Meanwhile the reports that Greek prime minister Alex Tsipras is considering the latest EU proposals - and has told Brussels as much - have lifted markets off their worst levels.
Germany’s Dax is now down just 0.3% while France’s Cac is 0.2% lower. Spain’s Ibex is now up 0.3%.Germany’s Dax is now down just 0.3% while France’s Cac is 0.2% lower. Spain’s Ibex is now up 0.3%.
Updated at 11.50am BSTUpdated at 11.50am BST
10.38am BST10:3810.38am BST10:38
Amid all the planning for the referendum and the uncertainty of Greece’s current situation, finance minister Yanis Varoufakis has made time to read the views of economist Joseph Stiglitz published by the Guardian:Amid all the planning for the referendum and the uncertainty of Greece’s current situation, finance minister Yanis Varoufakis has made time to read the views of economist Joseph Stiglitz published by the Guardian:
Joseph Stiglitz: how I would vote in the Greek referendum http://t.co/WpIGUvKjUAJoseph Stiglitz: how I would vote in the Greek referendum http://t.co/WpIGUvKjUA
10.34am BST10:3410.34am BST10:34
Any deal would reportedly be based on the offer made to Athens by EC president Jean-Claude Juncker last night:Any deal would reportedly be based on the offer made to Athens by EC president Jean-Claude Juncker last night:
Tsipras in touch with Juncker to discuss last night's proposal, reports Skia TV #Greece #euroTsipras in touch with Juncker to discuss last night's proposal, reports Skia TV #Greece #euro
10.22am BST10:2210.22am BST10:22
Last-minute attempts to break deadlock - reportsLast-minute attempts to break deadlock - reports
There seem to be some frantic last-minute efforts to get a deal together before tonight’s deadline, despite how unlikely that may have seemed earlier. Helena Smith reports:There seem to be some frantic last-minute efforts to get a deal together before tonight’s deadline, despite how unlikely that may have seemed earlier. Helena Smith reports:
The possibility of a solution still being found to break the deadlock was highlighted this morning when a senior government official let slip that Greece’s payment of €1.6bn in outstanding loans to the IMF should still not be ruled out.The possibility of a solution still being found to break the deadlock was highlighted this morning when a senior government official let slip that Greece’s payment of €1.6bn in outstanding loans to the IMF should still not be ruled out.
“It doesn’t look like it [will be paid] at this moment,” said one well-placed government source. “But at previous times, they have always found a solution at five to twelve.”“It doesn’t look like it [will be paid] at this moment,” said one well-placed government source. “But at previous times, they have always found a solution at five to twelve.”
Perhaps, in this case it will be one minute to twelve. No one is ruling it out! This morning the online news portal Newsit.gr citing exclusive sources reported that an “orgy of meetings” in Athens and Brussels were now taking place to break the impasse by midnight, when Greece’s bailout programme officially expires.Perhaps, in this case it will be one minute to twelve. No one is ruling it out! This morning the online news portal Newsit.gr citing exclusive sources reported that an “orgy of meetings” in Athens and Brussels were now taking place to break the impasse by midnight, when Greece’s bailout programme officially expires.
Several cadres in Tsipras’ governing far left Syriza party, have reportedly been hitting the phones to implore Tsipras to accept the latest offer proposed by creditors.Several cadres in Tsipras’ governing far left Syriza party, have reportedly been hitting the phones to implore Tsipras to accept the latest offer proposed by creditors.
“Developments are fast moving and they are happening right now,” the newsite said.“Developments are fast moving and they are happening right now,” the newsite said.
“According to [our] information, a serious plan is being organised by several sides so that an agreement can be reached by midnight.“According to [our] information, a serious plan is being organised by several sides so that an agreement can be reached by midnight.
“A very important point is that this deal will NOT include the IMF,” it said.“A very important point is that this deal will NOT include the IMF,” it said.
France is believed to have played a central role brokering the agreement. Leading figures in Syriza are urging the government to accept an interim agreement if necessary to stave off bankruptcy.France is believed to have played a central role brokering the agreement. Leading figures in Syriza are urging the government to accept an interim agreement if necessary to stave off bankruptcy.
GREECE TSIPRAS MULLS LAST MINUTE INITIATIVE FOR DEAL - SKAI TV - MNIGREECE TSIPRAS MULLS LAST MINUTE INITIATIVE FOR DEAL - SKAI TV - MNI
Updated at 10.32am BSTUpdated at 10.32am BST
10.09am BST10:0910.09am BST10:09
It's Greece's problem, says KremlinIt's Greece's problem, says Kremlin
Russia seems keen to distance itself from the Greek crisis. From Reuters:Russia seems keen to distance itself from the Greek crisis. From Reuters:
Finding a solution to Greece’s debt crisis is not a matter for Russia but for Athens and its creditors, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Tuesday.Finding a solution to Greece’s debt crisis is not a matter for Russia but for Athens and its creditors, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Tuesday.
“This is Greece’s problem,” Peskov told journalists on a conference call. “(It’s a matter) of Greece’s relations with its creditors, it’s not a matter for us.”“This is Greece’s problem,” Peskov told journalists on a conference call. “(It’s a matter) of Greece’s relations with its creditors, it’s not a matter for us.”
10.01am BST10:0110.01am BST10:01
Helena SmithHelena Smith
Meanwhile our correspondent Helena Smith has just spoken with the country ‘s chief negotiator who insists that Greece has indeed not closed the doors on talks with its creditors:Meanwhile our correspondent Helena Smith has just spoken with the country ‘s chief negotiator who insists that Greece has indeed not closed the doors on talks with its creditors:
Sunday’s referendum should be seen “as part” of the negotiations not something that cancels them out, Euclid Tsakalotos, the point man in talks between Athens and the international bodies keeping it afloat, told me this morning. “The referendum is part of the negotiation, it is not in lieu of it,” he said. “Europe shouldn’t be afraid.”Sunday’s referendum should be seen “as part” of the negotiations not something that cancels them out, Euclid Tsakalotos, the point man in talks between Athens and the international bodies keeping it afloat, told me this morning. “The referendum is part of the negotiation, it is not in lieu of it,” he said. “Europe shouldn’t be afraid.”
The comments echoed similar sentiment voiced by prime minister Alexis Tsipras last night who also said that a strong “no” vote would bolster Greece’s place at the negotiating table.The comments echoed similar sentiment voiced by prime minister Alexis Tsipras last night who also said that a strong “no” vote would bolster Greece’s place at the negotiating table.
“We have not left the negotiating table. We are still at the negotiating table,” he told state-run TV, ERT.“We have not left the negotiating table. We are still at the negotiating table,” he told state-run TV, ERT.
Tsakalotos, who has been coordinating talks between the two sides since replacing outspoken finance minister Yanis Varoufakis, seemed optimistic that despite the hullabaloo over the referendum, negotiations would continue.Tsakalotos, who has been coordinating talks between the two sides since replacing outspoken finance minister Yanis Varoufakis, seemed optimistic that despite the hullabaloo over the referendum, negotiations would continue.
“Yes, of course they will,” he said, suggesting that the two sides had come very close to a deal last week. “The idea was that we were going to take it to parliament before Germany and other parliaments also voted on it. But then we went one step further and said we should put it to the Greek people as a whole, let democracy work, which would have meant extending the programme by a week or so,” he said of Greece’s request to prolong its financial lifeline. “I really can’t see why that couldn’t happen. Extending [the programme] by a few days would not have been the end of the world.”“Yes, of course they will,” he said, suggesting that the two sides had come very close to a deal last week. “The idea was that we were going to take it to parliament before Germany and other parliaments also voted on it. But then we went one step further and said we should put it to the Greek people as a whole, let democracy work, which would have meant extending the programme by a week or so,” he said of Greece’s request to prolong its financial lifeline. “I really can’t see why that couldn’t happen. Extending [the programme] by a few days would not have been the end of the world.”
Political commentators this morning said it was clear that Tsipras’ leftist-led government was still holding out for a better deal. “He is still playing some kind of poker, waiting for something better,” said Christos Memis, a veteran political analyst now in charge of the respected news portal, Protagon.gr. “That is very unlikely to happen now before the poll [on Sunday]. What has become clear is that lenders don’t trust Tsipras, they want him out and he is right when he says the differences are ideological, it is no longer just about him.”Political commentators this morning said it was clear that Tsipras’ leftist-led government was still holding out for a better deal. “He is still playing some kind of poker, waiting for something better,” said Christos Memis, a veteran political analyst now in charge of the respected news portal, Protagon.gr. “That is very unlikely to happen now before the poll [on Sunday]. What has become clear is that lenders don’t trust Tsipras, they want him out and he is right when he says the differences are ideological, it is no longer just about him.”
Tsipras may be trapped in his referendum gambit but creditors had also made several mistakes, Memis said.Tsipras may be trapped in his referendum gambit but creditors had also made several mistakes, Memis said.
“Tactically speaking they were totally wrong not to accept the 47-page list of proposals the government made last week. Had they accepted it and Tsipras tried to implement it, six months later his government would have collapsed, he would have gone.”“Tactically speaking they were totally wrong not to accept the 47-page list of proposals the government made last week. Had they accepted it and Tsipras tried to implement it, six months later his government would have collapsed, he would have gone.”
Greeks are waiting with baited breath for the release of several opinion polls that will reflect just where the country stands, psephologically, on the “no,” “yes” vote. “Things will become much clearer and move a lot faster when the polls come out later today and tomorrow,” said Memis.Greeks are waiting with baited breath for the release of several opinion polls that will reflect just where the country stands, psephologically, on the “no,” “yes” vote. “Things will become much clearer and move a lot faster when the polls come out later today and tomorrow,” said Memis.
Updated at 10.17am BSTUpdated at 10.17am BST
9.57am BST09:579.57am BST09:57
And could those talks in fact actually take place after all?And could those talks in fact actually take place after all?
Greek government is thinking of returning to the negotiating table by tonight, Greek media reportGreek government is thinking of returning to the negotiating table by tonight, Greek media report
Updated at 9.57am BSTUpdated at 9.57am BST
9.53am BST09:539.53am BST09:53
EU attempting to open new talks with GreeceEU attempting to open new talks with Greece
Attempts are being made to get Athens back to the negotiating table, according to Austrian finance minister Hans Joerg Schelling.Attempts are being made to get Athens back to the negotiating table, according to Austrian finance minister Hans Joerg Schelling.
But he said he was not very optimistic about the possibility of holding further talks with Greece.But he said he was not very optimistic about the possibility of holding further talks with Greece.
The comments came after EC president Jean-Claude Juncker made a last-minute offer to Athens to reach an agreement before the bailout deadline ends later today.The comments came after EC president Jean-Claude Juncker made a last-minute offer to Athens to reach an agreement before the bailout deadline ends later today.
“Attempts are taking place to hold further talks. I’m not too optimistic,” Schelling told reporters. “As for the euro, as you’ve seen in the past 48 hours, it hasn’t been affected especially. The euro is stable. The euro is strong...We don’t expect any special spillover effects or contagion.” (Quotes courtesy Reuters)“Attempts are taking place to hold further talks. I’m not too optimistic,” Schelling told reporters. “As for the euro, as you’ve seen in the past 48 hours, it hasn’t been affected especially. The euro is stable. The euro is strong...We don’t expect any special spillover effects or contagion.” (Quotes courtesy Reuters)
Austria Finmin Schelling Says Euro Working Group Is Holding Twice-daily Conference Calls On Market SituationAustria Finmin Schelling Says Euro Working Group Is Holding Twice-daily Conference Calls On Market Situation
Updated at 9.58am BSTUpdated at 9.58am BST
9.42am BST09:429.42am BST09:42
Bit of housekeeping, the UK GDP figures:Bit of housekeeping, the UK GDP figures:
UK Q1 #GDP revised to 0.4% from +0.3% as expected, but current account deficit unexpectedly widened to £26.5bn from 25.3bn #FX ^FRUK Q1 #GDP revised to 0.4% from +0.3% as expected, but current account deficit unexpectedly widened to £26.5bn from 25.3bn #FX ^FR
9.34am BST09:349.34am BST09:34
More from Rajoy, courtesy Reuters:More from Rajoy, courtesy Reuters:
Mariano Rajoy said on Tuesday that if Greece were to leave the euro it could send the message that the common currency union is reversible and other countries could follow.Mariano Rajoy said on Tuesday that if Greece were to leave the euro it could send the message that the common currency union is reversible and other countries could follow.
“What would happen if Greece came out of the euro? There would be a negative message that euro membership is reversible,” Rajoy said in a radio interview.“What would happen if Greece came out of the euro? There would be a negative message that euro membership is reversible,” Rajoy said in a radio interview.
“People may think that if one country can leave the euro, others could do so in the future. I think that is the most serious problem that could arise (from a Greek exit).”“People may think that if one country can leave the euro, others could do so in the future. I think that is the most serious problem that could arise (from a Greek exit).”
9.31am BST09:319.31am BST09:31
Spain's Rajoy says no vote means Greece leaving eurozoneSpain's Rajoy says no vote means Greece leaving eurozone
Spain’s prime minister Mariano Rajoy has added his voice to the chorus of European leaders saying that a no vote in Sunday’s referendum means Greece will have to leave the eurozone. Rajoy, who faces his own anti-austerity political rivals in Podemos, told Spanish radio:Spain’s prime minister Mariano Rajoy has added his voice to the chorus of European leaders saying that a no vote in Sunday’s referendum means Greece will have to leave the eurozone. Rajoy, who faces his own anti-austerity political rivals in Podemos, told Spanish radio:
If Tsipras loses the referendum, this will be good for Greece. If he wins the referendum, Greece has no alternative other than to leave the euro.If Tsipras loses the referendum, this will be good for Greece. If he wins the referendum, Greece has no alternative other than to leave the euro.
Updated at 10.03am BSTUpdated at 10.03am BST
9.19am BST09:199.19am BST09:19
We’ve been gathering views from Greeks on their views on the current turmoil and whether they want to remain in the eurozone, and the results from 100 people are here:We’ve been gathering views from Greeks on their views on the current turmoil and whether they want to remain in the eurozone, and the results from 100 people are here:
Related: Greece's euro-referendum: 100 Greeks give their viewRelated: Greece's euro-referendum: 100 Greeks give their view
9.16am BST09:169.16am BST09:16
The European Central Bank has admitted that Greece may end up leaving the euro.The European Central Bank has admitted that Greece may end up leaving the euro.
In an interview with France’s Les Echo, ECB executive board member Benoit Coeure said a Grexit could happen, although it was not what the Bank or other EU institutions wanted. He said:In an interview with France’s Les Echo, ECB executive board member Benoit Coeure said a Grexit could happen, although it was not what the Bank or other EU institutions wanted. He said:
A Greek exit from the eurozone, so far a theoretical issue, can unfortunately not be excluded any more.A Greek exit from the eurozone, so far a theoretical issue, can unfortunately not be excluded any more.
The wind is slowly turning against #Greece. Markets not panicking, EU allies walking away, #ECB no longer ruling #Grexit out.The wind is slowly turning against #Greece. Markets not panicking, EU allies walking away, #ECB no longer ruling #Grexit out.
9.06am BST09:069.06am BST09:06
And according to Reuters, there may be no need for the drachma’s return after all:And according to Reuters, there may be no need for the drachma’s return after all:
Greece will not leave the euro zone, the country’s foreign minister Nikos Kotzias told China’s Ambassador to Greece Zou Xiaoli, according to a statement on China’s Foreign Ministry website.Greece will not leave the euro zone, the country’s foreign minister Nikos Kotzias told China’s Ambassador to Greece Zou Xiaoli, according to a statement on China’s Foreign Ministry website.
“Greece will not leave the euro zone, and is willing to work with China to further develop bilateral relations and practical cooperation in all areas,” the Foreign Ministry statement cited Kotzias as saying.“Greece will not leave the euro zone, and is willing to work with China to further develop bilateral relations and practical cooperation in all areas,” the Foreign Ministry statement cited Kotzias as saying.
Kotzias made the comments in a meeting with Zou on Monday.Kotzias made the comments in a meeting with Zou on Monday.
8.59am BST08:598.59am BST08:59
Greek MP hints at plans for drachma returnGreek MP hints at plans for drachma return
This might be a bit premature, given we haven’t had the referendum yet, although with the speed at which events are happening, who can say:This might be a bit premature, given we haven’t had the referendum yet, although with the speed at which events are happening, who can say:
#ToPotami MP @htheoharis just tweeted that there's a team from the General Accounting Office in Maximos Bldg preparing plan for drachma!#ToPotami MP @htheoharis just tweeted that there's a team from the General Accounting Office in Maximos Bldg preparing plan for drachma!
Updated at 9.19am BSTUpdated at 9.19am BST
8.58am BST08:588.58am BST08:58
Here’s the latest German unemployment figures:Here’s the latest German unemployment figures:
German Unemployment Change Jun: -1K (est -5K; prev -6K) -Unemployment Rate Jun: 6.40% (est 6.40%; prev 6.40%)German Unemployment Change Jun: -1K (est -5K; prev -6K) -Unemployment Rate Jun: 6.40% (est 6.40%; prev 6.40%)
8.54am BST08:548.54am BST08:54
Italian prime minister Matteo Renzi has been one of the closest allies of Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras, but yesterday he added his voice to the chorus of leaders saying the referendum was a vote on Greece’s eurozone membership.Italian prime minister Matteo Renzi has been one of the closest allies of Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras, but yesterday he added his voice to the chorus of leaders saying the referendum was a vote on Greece’s eurozone membership.
And now he has perhaps shown one reason why he is losing patience with the Greek government:And now he has perhaps shown one reason why he is losing patience with the Greek government:
Italian PM Renzi: "We haven't scrapped early retirements for Italians so that the Greeks could keep theirs". #Greece (@sole24ore)Italian PM Renzi: "We haven't scrapped early retirements for Italians so that the Greeks could keep theirs". #Greece (@sole24ore)
8.48am BST08:488.48am BST08:48
The market falls are accelerating as the uncertainty continues:The market falls are accelerating as the uncertainty continues:
8.35am BST08:358.35am BST08:35
Here’s our latest update on the situation from Jennifer Rankin:Here’s our latest update on the situation from Jennifer Rankin:
Greece is on course to miss a crucial debt repayment on Tuesday, amid an ongoing and bitter row with creditors about who is to blame for the breakdown in talks on its eurozone future.Greece is on course to miss a crucial debt repayment on Tuesday, amid an ongoing and bitter row with creditors about who is to blame for the breakdown in talks on its eurozone future.
After five years of painful austerity and four months of wrangling with its creditors, Greece’s international bailout will come to an end on Tuesday, as a €1.6bn (£1.13bn) payment to the International Monetary Fund falls due.After five years of painful austerity and four months of wrangling with its creditors, Greece’s international bailout will come to an end on Tuesday, as a €1.6bn (£1.13bn) payment to the International Monetary Fund falls due.
A Greek government official confirmed on Monday that Athens will not make the €1.6bn loan instalment, which is due to the IMF by 6pm Washington time (11pm BST, midnight in Brussels and 1am in Athens). The Washington-based fund has long said that late-payers do not get a grace period.A Greek government official confirmed on Monday that Athens will not make the €1.6bn loan instalment, which is due to the IMF by 6pm Washington time (11pm BST, midnight in Brussels and 1am in Athens). The Washington-based fund has long said that late-payers do not get a grace period.
Failure to pay means Greece will become the first developed nation in history to default to the IMF and joins a club of countries in arrears that currently includes Sudan, Somalia and Zimbabwe.Failure to pay means Greece will become the first developed nation in history to default to the IMF and joins a club of countries in arrears that currently includes Sudan, Somalia and Zimbabwe.
Full story here:Full story here:
Related: Greece on course to miss crucial debt repaymentRelated: Greece on course to miss crucial debt repayment
8.33am BST08:338.33am BST08:33
When is a default not a default? Many have been saying that if Greece does not pay the €1.6bn due to the International Monetary Fund by tonight’s deadline that does not count. Gary Jenkins, chief credit strategist at LNG Capital, is not so sure:When is a default not a default? Many have been saying that if Greece does not pay the €1.6bn due to the International Monetary Fund by tonight’s deadline that does not count. Gary Jenkins, chief credit strategist at LNG Capital, is not so sure:
Greece is due to pay the IMF today. It appears that they will not make the payment. There has been lots of talk that this is not really a default. Indeed the rating agencies have stated that they would not consider a non-payment as a default. All I can say on this matter is that if you do not pay the absolute last lender of resort I think that’s a default.Greece is due to pay the IMF today. It appears that they will not make the payment. There has been lots of talk that this is not really a default. Indeed the rating agencies have stated that they would not consider a non-payment as a default. All I can say on this matter is that if you do not pay the absolute last lender of resort I think that’s a default.
We’ll see how the markets take it when it happens (as seems inevitable). On the referendum, Jenkins says:We’ll see how the markets take it when it happens (as seems inevitable). On the referendum, Jenkins says:
My take on it is that if the Greek people vote ‘No’ to the proposals that Mr Tsipras may feel vindicated and insist upon a new round of negotiation. However the probable damage done to the economy by recent events will make this a largely Pyrrhic victory. It is possible that the Institutions will restart negotiations but it is equally likely that they would indeed regard such a result as a step towards exit from the Eurozone. I’m leaning towards more negotiations but with little additional support from the ECB so more damage to the economy.My take on it is that if the Greek people vote ‘No’ to the proposals that Mr Tsipras may feel vindicated and insist upon a new round of negotiation. However the probable damage done to the economy by recent events will make this a largely Pyrrhic victory. It is possible that the Institutions will restart negotiations but it is equally likely that they would indeed regard such a result as a step towards exit from the Eurozone. I’m leaning towards more negotiations but with little additional support from the ECB so more damage to the economy.
If the Greek people vote ‘Yes’ then it is difficult to see how Mr Tsipras can remain as Prime Minister. Under this scenario a new government is likely to be formed that will accept the Institutions terms which I guess may be eased somewhat to reflect the new economic conditions and to try and build a new relationship between the parties.If the Greek people vote ‘Yes’ then it is difficult to see how Mr Tsipras can remain as Prime Minister. Under this scenario a new government is likely to be formed that will accept the Institutions terms which I guess may be eased somewhat to reflect the new economic conditions and to try and build a new relationship between the parties.
So whilst the impact upon the market on Day 1 has been less than feared that is not to say that we will not see further weakness over the coming days. The market may have been taking comfort from all of the opinion polls that have taken place in Greece over the last few years showing that the Greek people wanted to stay in the Eurozone at pretty much any cost. However all of these polls were taken before the call for a referendum. Certainly I would expect a ‘No’ vote to be met with significant volatility in peripheral government bonds amid the classic flight to quality.So whilst the impact upon the market on Day 1 has been less than feared that is not to say that we will not see further weakness over the coming days. The market may have been taking comfort from all of the opinion polls that have taken place in Greece over the last few years showing that the Greek people wanted to stay in the Eurozone at pretty much any cost. However all of these polls were taken before the call for a referendum. Certainly I would expect a ‘No’ vote to be met with significant volatility in peripheral government bonds amid the classic flight to quality.
This is clearly now a fast moving situation and it is still by unclear as to how it will play out. As an old credit analyst my instinct therefore is to be cautious and wait to see what the weekend brings. Next Monday could be a much worse day for peripheral debt than yesterday was if the ‘No’ vote wins.This is clearly now a fast moving situation and it is still by unclear as to how it will play out. As an old credit analyst my instinct therefore is to be cautious and wait to see what the weekend brings. Next Monday could be a much worse day for peripheral debt than yesterday was if the ‘No’ vote wins.
8.21am BST08:218.21am BST08:21
Not that we thought they had but:Not that we thought they had but:
Russia Reiterates Greece Hasn't Applied For Financial Aid: RIARussia Reiterates Greece Hasn't Applied For Financial Aid: RIA
8.08am BST08:088.08am BST08:08
European markets edge lower in early tradingEuropean markets edge lower in early trading
8.01am BST08:018.01am BST08:01
If Greece does default on its payment to the IMF it will be following an historical precedent. The Economist says:If Greece does default on its payment to the IMF it will be following an historical precedent. The Economist says:
The first recorded sovereign default was in the 4th century BC when ten Greek cities failed to honour loans from the temple of Delos.The first recorded sovereign default was in the 4th century BC when ten Greek cities failed to honour loans from the temple of Delos.
Its full piece on defaults is here.Its full piece on defaults is here.
7.59am BST07:597.59am BST07:59
Away from Greece, a couple of other bits of economic news due today:Away from Greece, a couple of other bits of economic news due today:
9.30 BST UK final revision of first quarter GDP9.30 BST UK final revision of first quarter GDP
10.00 Eurozone unemployment10.00 Eurozone unemployment
10.00 Eurozone consumer price index10.00 Eurozone consumer price index
15.00 US consumer confidence15.00 US consumer confidence
7.54am BST07:547.54am BST07:54
As if the stakes were not high enough, Greece is threatening a court injunction against the EU institutions to block any exit from the eurozone, according to the Daily Telegraph:As if the stakes were not high enough, Greece is threatening a court injunction against the EU institutions to block any exit from the eurozone, according to the Daily Telegraph:
“The Greek government will make use of all our legal rights,” said the finance minister, Yanis Varoufakis.“The Greek government will make use of all our legal rights,” said the finance minister, Yanis Varoufakis.
“We are taking advice and will certainly consider an injunction at the European Court of Justice. The EU treaties make no provision for euro exit and we refuse to accept it. Our membership is not negotiable,“ he told the Telegraph.“We are taking advice and will certainly consider an injunction at the European Court of Justice. The EU treaties make no provision for euro exit and we refuse to accept it. Our membership is not negotiable,“ he told the Telegraph.
7.41am BST07:417.41am BST07:41
Introduction: Greece faces IMF and bailout deadlinesIntroduction: Greece faces IMF and bailout deadlines
Good morning and welcome to yet another crunch day for Greece.Good morning and welcome to yet another crunch day for Greece.
The country faces a deadline to pay €1.6bn to the International Monetary Fund by the end of the day, at the same time as its bailout extension negotiated in February runs out.The country faces a deadline to pay €1.6bn to the International Monetary Fund by the end of the day, at the same time as its bailout extension negotiated in February runs out.
Without an unlikely last-minute deal the bailout will end and €7.2bn which would have been paid by its creditors, the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the IMF, will be off the table.Without an unlikely last-minute deal the bailout will end and €7.2bn which would have been paid by its creditors, the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the IMF, will be off the table.
But with the dramatic events of the weekend, which saw Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras call a referendum on whether to accept the latest proposals from its creditors and lead to capital controls and an extended bank holiday, today’s deadlines have been overtaken by events.But with the dramatic events of the weekend, which saw Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras call a referendum on whether to accept the latest proposals from its creditors and lead to capital controls and an extended bank holiday, today’s deadlines have been overtaken by events.
Tspiras last night made a television appeal to Greeks to vote against the austerity package he sees as being imposed on the country, arguing it would strengthen negotiations with its creditors. Rallies took place in Athens and elsewhere in support of a no vote.Tspiras last night made a television appeal to Greeks to vote against the austerity package he sees as being imposed on the country, arguing it would strengthen negotiations with its creditors. Rallies took place in Athens and elsewhere in support of a no vote.
But European leaders lined up to call the referendum a vote on whether Greece would stay in the euro or leave, piling more pressure on Tsipras and his colleagues.But European leaders lined up to call the referendum a vote on whether Greece would stay in the euro or leave, piling more pressure on Tsipras and his colleagues.
Our full report is here:Our full report is here:
Related: Europe's big guns warn Greek voters that a no vote means euro exitRelated: Europe's big guns warn Greek voters that a no vote means euro exit
Meanwhile overnight, EC president Jean-Claude Juncker - after earlier calling for a yes vote - apparently made a last-minute offer to Athens to reach an agreement before the bailout deadline ends.Meanwhile overnight, EC president Jean-Claude Juncker - after earlier calling for a yes vote - apparently made a last-minute offer to Athens to reach an agreement before the bailout deadline ends.
Under the deal, Tsipras would have to campaign for a yes vote, which is hardly likely to happen. Reuters has some details of what would have been in it for the Greeks:Under the deal, Tsipras would have to campaign for a yes vote, which is hardly likely to happen. Reuters has some details of what would have been in it for the Greeks:
The offer published on Sunday incorporated a proposal from Greece that would set value-added tax rates on hotels at 13 percent, rather than at 23 percent as originally planned in the lenders’ proposals. It was not immediately clear whether there would be any additional changes.The offer published on Sunday incorporated a proposal from Greece that would set value-added tax rates on hotels at 13 percent, rather than at 23 percent as originally planned in the lenders’ proposals. It was not immediately clear whether there would be any additional changes.
If the offer were accepted, the euro zone finance ministers could adopt a statement saying that a 2012 pledge to consider stretching out loan maturities, lowering interest rates and extending an interest payment moratorium on euro zone loans to Greece would be implemented in October.If the offer were accepted, the euro zone finance ministers could adopt a statement saying that a 2012 pledge to consider stretching out loan maturities, lowering interest rates and extending an interest payment moratorium on euro zone loans to Greece would be implemented in October.
Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK:Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK:
In a sign that battle lines continue to be drawn EU leaders have turned Sunday’s proposed referendum into an in/out vote on Greece’s position in the euro, when it is clearly about the creditors proposal, but given that polls appear to suggest a majority of the Greek population would prefer to stay in the euro, it suits the narrative of the EU to peddle that particular line.In a sign that battle lines continue to be drawn EU leaders have turned Sunday’s proposed referendum into an in/out vote on Greece’s position in the euro, when it is clearly about the creditors proposal, but given that polls appear to suggest a majority of the Greek population would prefer to stay in the euro, it suits the narrative of the EU to peddle that particular line.
In fact EU Commission President Juncker strayed a little too far into the realms of bad taste yesterday, urging the Greek population not to commit suicide by voting No, which in a country that has seen suicides soar as a result of EU policies, was crassly insensitive, and could well turn out to be a massive own goal, if the vote is indecisive. Maybe that explains last night’s late move to make a fresh attempt at trying to reach a deal by the EU Commission President, but in any event the deal was rebuffed by the Greek PM, with the only concession appearing to be on VAT for hotels being held down at 13%, instead of raised to 23%.In fact EU Commission President Juncker strayed a little too far into the realms of bad taste yesterday, urging the Greek population not to commit suicide by voting No, which in a country that has seen suicides soar as a result of EU policies, was crassly insensitive, and could well turn out to be a massive own goal, if the vote is indecisive. Maybe that explains last night’s late move to make a fresh attempt at trying to reach a deal by the EU Commission President, but in any event the deal was rebuffed by the Greek PM, with the only concession appearing to be on VAT for hotels being held down at 13%, instead of raised to 23%.
Worries about the chaos in Greece hit stock markets yesterday, with the FTSE 100 down nearly 2% and French and German markets down 3%.Worries about the chaos in Greece hit stock markets yesterday, with the FTSE 100 down nearly 2% and French and German markets down 3%.
Asian markets edged up overnight but European markets are expected to open lower once more. CMC’s opening calls show:Asian markets edged up overnight but European markets are expected to open lower once more. CMC’s opening calls show:
FTSE100 is expected to open 27 points lower at 6,593FTSE100 is expected to open 27 points lower at 6,593
DAX is expected to open 79 points lower at 11,004DAX is expected to open 79 points lower at 11,004
CAC40 is expected to open 28 points lower at 4,841CAC40 is expected to open 28 points lower at 4,841
Updated at 9.35am BSTUpdated at 9.35am BST