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| Women's World Cup 2015 final: what USA need to do to beat Japan | |
| (about 5 hours later) | |
| The Americans are on the brink of history. They could win a record third Women’s World Cup and avenge a heartbreaking loss to Japan four years earlier. Again, just as was the case in 2011, the statistical odds are in USA’s favor. The odds, of course, didn’t end up meaning much last time as the Americans fell on penalties to Japan. | The Americans are on the brink of history. They could win a record third Women’s World Cup and avenge a heartbreaking loss to Japan four years earlier. Again, just as was the case in 2011, the statistical odds are in USA’s favor. The odds, of course, didn’t end up meaning much last time as the Americans fell on penalties to Japan. |
| But the momentum heading into this final is surely with the Americans, who roared past No 1-ranked Germany in a pulsating semi-final, looking confident every step of the way. After being outplayed for much of their semi-final, Japan edged past England thanks to an infamous own goal by the Lionesses in stoppage time. | But the momentum heading into this final is surely with the Americans, who roared past No 1-ranked Germany in a pulsating semi-final, looking confident every step of the way. After being outplayed for much of their semi-final, Japan edged past England thanks to an infamous own goal by the Lionesses in stoppage time. |
| Japan are not the team it was in 2011, but they are still fearsome opponents and the Americans, who seem to be peaking at the right time after early struggles in this tournament, will need to get their tactics right to hoist the trophy. | Japan are not the team it was in 2011, but they are still fearsome opponents and the Americans, who seem to be peaking at the right time after early struggles in this tournament, will need to get their tactics right to hoist the trophy. |
| A hybrid of strategies | A hybrid of strategies |
| The American attack that looked dormant in the group stage was cracked open by a bold tactical change from coach Jill Ellis, which created an offensive eruption in their semi-final. After utilizing an ill-fitting 4-4-2 formation for USA’s first five matches, Ellis switched to a formation that looked something like a 4-3-3 or a 4-2-3-1. It caught the Germans by surprise and went a long way toward stymieing their efforts to go forward. | The American attack that looked dormant in the group stage was cracked open by a bold tactical change from coach Jill Ellis, which created an offensive eruption in their semi-final. After utilizing an ill-fitting 4-4-2 formation for USA’s first five matches, Ellis switched to a formation that looked something like a 4-3-3 or a 4-2-3-1. It caught the Germans by surprise and went a long way toward stymieing their efforts to go forward. |
| Ellis’ shift in tactics crucially gave free rein to Carli Lloyd, a goal hound who only seems capable of her best when the world is watching. Ellis took defensive duties off Lloyd’s plate and tucked midfielders Lauren Holiday and Morgan Brian behind her to fend off Germany’s wave of attacks. | Ellis’ shift in tactics crucially gave free rein to Carli Lloyd, a goal hound who only seems capable of her best when the world is watching. Ellis took defensive duties off Lloyd’s plate and tucked midfielders Lauren Holiday and Morgan Brian behind her to fend off Germany’s wave of attacks. |
| By adding better-defined roles in the central midfield with Lloyd focused on offense and the other two players on defense, it created more coverage and outlets in the middle, which allowed the Americans to move the ball better without resorting to aimless long balls. The ball could be worked in and out of the middle to the flanks, which gave the Americans a varied point of attack. | By adding better-defined roles in the central midfield with Lloyd focused on offense and the other two players on defense, it created more coverage and outlets in the middle, which allowed the Americans to move the ball better without resorting to aimless long balls. The ball could be worked in and out of the middle to the flanks, which gave the Americans a varied point of attack. |
| Related: Women's World Cup: bigger, better – but still treated as the poor relation | Related: Women's World Cup: bigger, better – but still treated as the poor relation |
| Japan are no Germany though. They are an organized and disciplined unit in defense that will likely leave less seams than an uncharacteristically sloppy Germany did. But also unlike Germany, Japan lack the height to deal as well with balls in the air. The Americans will want to continue to work the ball through the midfield and around the flanks – it creates confidence and emboldens players to attack – but if there is a time to revisit the long balls and direct soccer USA used in the group stage, it’s against Japan. | Japan are no Germany though. They are an organized and disciplined unit in defense that will likely leave less seams than an uncharacteristically sloppy Germany did. But also unlike Germany, Japan lack the height to deal as well with balls in the air. The Americans will want to continue to work the ball through the midfield and around the flanks – it creates confidence and emboldens players to attack – but if there is a time to revisit the long balls and direct soccer USA used in the group stage, it’s against Japan. |
| Set pieces and long balls will be to USA’s advantage against players who are generally smaller than the Americans. In transition on counterattacks when the speedy Americans can out-run the Japanese, sending a ball long may be their best route to goal. | Set pieces and long balls will be to USA’s advantage against players who are generally smaller than the Americans. In transition on counterattacks when the speedy Americans can out-run the Japanese, sending a ball long may be their best route to goal. |
| Setting the tempo | Setting the tempo |
| Where the Japanese excel – and can make teams uncomfortable – is with their seemingly endless supply of patience. They are happy to knock the ball around in their own half, biding their time until they find an opening. The Americans have never shown that sort of restraint, often going at goal like a battering ram and hoping for the best. | Where the Japanese excel – and can make teams uncomfortable – is with their seemingly endless supply of patience. They are happy to knock the ball around in their own half, biding their time until they find an opening. The Americans have never shown that sort of restraint, often going at goal like a battering ram and hoping for the best. |
| The Japanese have the highest pass completion percentage of the tournament at 80%, including a tournament-best of 61% in the final third. The Americans, a physical and powerful team, will probably look to press high and put Japan on the back foot. That will prevent Japan from dictating the pace of the game and should force turnovers the way USA’s high pressing of Germany did. | The Japanese have the highest pass completion percentage of the tournament at 80%, including a tournament-best of 61% in the final third. The Americans, a physical and powerful team, will probably look to press high and put Japan on the back foot. That will prevent Japan from dictating the pace of the game and should force turnovers the way USA’s high pressing of Germany did. |
| “The strength of the US team is their power and their organized way of playing,” Japan coach Norio Sasaki said. “We don’t have as much power, but we have the skills, techniques and the network among players with quick counters. In these three areas, we are better.” | “The strength of the US team is their power and their organized way of playing,” Japan coach Norio Sasaki said. “We don’t have as much power, but we have the skills, techniques and the network among players with quick counters. In these three areas, we are better.” |
| A high pressing strategy worked in 2011 for the Americans. The Japanese played that final match in their usual possession-oriented tiki-taka style, but the Americans were unfazed, cutting out Japan’s one-touch passes and controlling possession for much of the game. It came down to a couple chances on either side to push the match to extra time, but if the Americans can dominate possession like they did four years ago, they will have a good chance. | A high pressing strategy worked in 2011 for the Americans. The Japanese played that final match in their usual possession-oriented tiki-taka style, but the Americans were unfazed, cutting out Japan’s one-touch passes and controlling possession for much of the game. It came down to a couple chances on either side to push the match to extra time, but if the Americans can dominate possession like they did four years ago, they will have a good chance. |
| “We have to be smart in when we pick and choose moments,” Ellis said on Saturday. “You can’t press and chase and make it a physical game for 90 minutes. But I think we have a great balance.” | “We have to be smart in when we pick and choose moments,” Ellis said on Saturday. “You can’t press and chase and make it a physical game for 90 minutes. But I think we have a great balance.” |
| Both teams will want to get the edge early to carry them through the match, but for the Americans, that could be in the key. USA have never lost a Women’s World Cup game in full-time when they’ve scored first. | Both teams will want to get the edge early to carry them through the match, but for the Americans, that could be in the key. USA have never lost a Women’s World Cup game in full-time when they’ve scored first. |
| To start Abby Wambach or not? | To start Abby Wambach or not? |
| Japan have a lot of things going for them: ballskills, excellent vision and cohesion. But they also aren’t particularly powerful or good in the air. | Japan have a lot of things going for them: ballskills, excellent vision and cohesion. But they also aren’t particularly powerful or good in the air. |
| Abby Wambach would be the perfect player to exploit that. The question is not whether Wambach will play. Of course she will. At 5ft 9in, she towers over most of the Japanese team and is a couple of inches taller than Japan’s two tallest starters. The question is whether Wambach begins the game. | Abby Wambach would be the perfect player to exploit that. The question is not whether Wambach will play. Of course she will. At 5ft 9in, she towers over most of the Japanese team and is a couple of inches taller than Japan’s two tallest starters. The question is whether Wambach begins the game. |
| Related: USA's soccer moms aim for one final effort before returning to family life | Related: USA's soccer moms aim for one final effort before returning to family life |
| If Ellis wants to lock down the contest straight out the gate, she may start Wambach to take advantage of early set pieces. The Americans tend to draw more set pieces earlier in games, according to ESPN statistics, and Wambach would be a force to be reckon with. | If Ellis wants to lock down the contest straight out the gate, she may start Wambach to take advantage of early set pieces. The Americans tend to draw more set pieces earlier in games, according to ESPN statistics, and Wambach would be a force to be reckon with. |
| But there are reasons Wambach may be better starting on the bench. If the Americans want to press high early, they will want younger, faster forwards on-hand. If Ellis is worried about the match going into extra time, something the Americans haven’t had to face yet in this tournament, she will want to conserve 35-year-old Wambach to exploit space opening up late in games. Although Wambach missed her most recent penalty against Colombia in the Round of 16, Ellis may see the veteran’s experience as an asset in a shootout too. | But there are reasons Wambach may be better starting on the bench. If the Americans want to press high early, they will want younger, faster forwards on-hand. If Ellis is worried about the match going into extra time, something the Americans haven’t had to face yet in this tournament, she will want to conserve 35-year-old Wambach to exploit space opening up late in games. Although Wambach missed her most recent penalty against Colombia in the Round of 16, Ellis may see the veteran’s experience as an asset in a shootout too. |
| The Americans have always had incredible depth, with players ready to step in at a moment’s notice. Having a world-class striker like Wambach as a bench option illustrates that. But substitutions have played an especially key role in USA’s success in this World Cup so far. | The Americans have always had incredible depth, with players ready to step in at a moment’s notice. Having a world-class striker like Wambach as a bench option illustrates that. But substitutions have played an especially key role in USA’s success in this World Cup so far. |
| “I remember not being able to play against China [in the quarter-final] and watching the game, and watching players step up. That’s what’s changed since 2011,” Holiday said on Saturday. “We just have a belief in each other, whether we’re on the bench or not – whoever is on the field is going to get it done. That might be the biggest difference for me from 2011 to 2015.” | “I remember not being able to play against China [in the quarter-final] and watching the game, and watching players step up. That’s what’s changed since 2011,” Holiday said on Saturday. “We just have a belief in each other, whether we’re on the bench or not – whoever is on the field is going to get it done. That might be the biggest difference for me from 2011 to 2015.” |