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| Greek referendum: what happens now after the no vote? | Greek referendum: what happens now after the no vote? |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| What’s next for the Greek banks? | What’s next for the Greek banks? |
| Greece’s financial system is on the brink of meltdown: banks are reported to have only around €500m left in cash – equal to just €45 (£32) per head of the 11 million-strong population. | Greece’s financial system is on the brink of meltdown: banks are reported to have only around €500m left in cash – equal to just €45 (£32) per head of the 11 million-strong population. |
| The big question is whether the European Central Bank will increase the flow of emergency aid to Greek banks. The ECB has already pumped €89bn into Greek banks, but paused this emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) before Sunday’s referendum. Although the result is now clear, the ECB will be reluctant to act ahead of European leaders, who are meeting on Monday and Tuesday. Sources told Reuters that the ECB would not raise the €89bn cap at the telephone conference on Monday. | |
| Related: Greek crisis: European leaders scramble for response to referendum no vote | Related: Greek crisis: European leaders scramble for response to referendum no vote |
| The ECB is unlikely to pull support from Greece altogether. “The day the ECB cuts off ELA is de facto the day that Greece would leave the euro,” say analysts at Société Générale. The ECB, fearful of straying into politics, will not make that momentous decision without the say-so of European leaders. | The ECB is unlikely to pull support from Greece altogether. “The day the ECB cuts off ELA is de facto the day that Greece would leave the euro,” say analysts at Société Générale. The ECB, fearful of straying into politics, will not make that momentous decision without the say-so of European leaders. |
| Where does this leave the bailout negotiations? | Where does this leave the bailout negotiations? |
| The dramatic resignation of Greece’s flamboyant finance minister Yanis Varoufakis on Monday morning instantly boosted hopes of a deal. | The dramatic resignation of Greece’s flamboyant finance minister Yanis Varoufakis on Monday morning instantly boosted hopes of a deal. |
| In his resignation statement, Varoufakis said the Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras judged his “absence” from Eurogroup meetings “to be potentially helpful to him in reaching an agreement”. The markets agreed, strengthening the euro against the dollar. | In his resignation statement, Varoufakis said the Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras judged his “absence” from Eurogroup meetings “to be potentially helpful to him in reaching an agreement”. The markets agreed, strengthening the euro against the dollar. |
| Eurozone leaders had pushed for Varoufakis to go, but it is far from clear it will be any easier for them to strike a deal with his successor, widely expected to be Greece’s chief negotiator, Euclid Tsakalotos. | Eurozone leaders had pushed for Varoufakis to go, but it is far from clear it will be any easier for them to strike a deal with his successor, widely expected to be Greece’s chief negotiator, Euclid Tsakalotos. |
| European leaders are calling on Athens to make the first move. French finance minister Michel Sapin said it was up to the Greek government “to make new proposals as quickly as possible”. Finland’s finance minister Alexander Stubb said talks could only restart when Greece cooperates and commits to implementing necessary reforms. | European leaders are calling on Athens to make the first move. French finance minister Michel Sapin said it was up to the Greek government “to make new proposals as quickly as possible”. Finland’s finance minister Alexander Stubb said talks could only restart when Greece cooperates and commits to implementing necessary reforms. |
| The German chancellor, Angela Merkel, will head to Paris for talks on Monday evening with French president François Hollande, in an effort to forge a common line ahead of an emergency summit of all 19 eurozone leaders on Tuesday. So far, the two leaders have taken different approaches: Merkel closed the door to further talks before Sunday’s referendum, but Hollande wanted a quick agreement. | |
| Technical talks are also under way in Brussels, while the heads of the European creditor organisations – the European commission, the ECB and the eurozone – are also discussing the situation. | |
| What are the markets doing? | What are the markets doing? |
| Stock markets across Europe have fallen, but are not plunging off a cliff. France’s CAC 40 is down 1.5%, the German DAX 1.4%, while Italy’s FTMIB has lost 2.65%. Outside the eurozone, the FTSE 100 is down by 0.5%. | Stock markets across Europe have fallen, but are not plunging off a cliff. France’s CAC 40 is down 1.5%, the German DAX 1.4%, while Italy’s FTMIB has lost 2.65%. Outside the eurozone, the FTSE 100 is down by 0.5%. |
| Across Asia, where investors are also nervous about a slowdown in the Chinese economy, it was a similar story. “The Greece no vote is a surprise,” said Shoji Hirakawa at Okasan Securities in Tokyo. “But the key is that the direction is going toward more talks after this.” | Across Asia, where investors are also nervous about a slowdown in the Chinese economy, it was a similar story. “The Greece no vote is a surprise,” said Shoji Hirakawa at Okasan Securities in Tokyo. “But the key is that the direction is going toward more talks after this.” |
| The bond markets are more volatile, but price spikes were contained by the expectation that the ECB will continue to buy government bonds of vulnerable southern European countries. Spanish 10-year yields were up marginally at 2.3%, Italy’s at 2.32% and Portugal at 3%. | The bond markets are more volatile, but price spikes were contained by the expectation that the ECB will continue to buy government bonds of vulnerable southern European countries. Spanish 10-year yields were up marginally at 2.3%, Italy’s at 2.32% and Portugal at 3%. |
| Related: Greece stands defiant as no vote rails against wrenching austerity | Related: Greece stands defiant as no vote rails against wrenching austerity |
| The muted reaction from markets may reflect investors’ perception that a Grexit is more likely, but unlikely to have disastrous consequences for the eurozone. | |
| Is Greece more likely to leave the euro? | Is Greece more likely to leave the euro? |
| The next 48 hours will test Tsipras’s argument that a no vote would strengthen his hand with negotiators. | The next 48 hours will test Tsipras’s argument that a no vote would strengthen his hand with negotiators. |
| The Economist Intelligence Unit puts the chances of a Grexit at 60%. | |
| “The referendum result raises the stakes for both sides. It makes it more difficult for Mr Tsipras to make big concessions in order to reach agreement with the country’s creditors. It also makes it more difficult for German chancellor Angela Merkel and other eurozone leaders to make concessions to Greece because of the moral hazard arguments,” says the EIU’s Joan Hoey. | “The referendum result raises the stakes for both sides. It makes it more difficult for Mr Tsipras to make big concessions in order to reach agreement with the country’s creditors. It also makes it more difficult for German chancellor Angela Merkel and other eurozone leaders to make concessions to Greece because of the moral hazard arguments,” says the EIU’s Joan Hoey. |
| What about the UK? | What about the UK? |
| In the UK, the chancellor, George Osborne, is holding crisis meetings with the prime minister, David Cameron, and the Bank of England governor, Mark Carney. The governor had already been attending meetings of Cobra – behind-the-scenes talks at the highest level of government – as the Greece crisis deepened last week and said that contingency plans for a potential Grexit are being put in place. | In the UK, the chancellor, George Osborne, is holding crisis meetings with the prime minister, David Cameron, and the Bank of England governor, Mark Carney. The governor had already been attending meetings of Cobra – behind-the-scenes talks at the highest level of government – as the Greece crisis deepened last week and said that contingency plans for a potential Grexit are being put in place. |
| The government could face further pressure to speed up the timetable to renegotiate the UK’s membership of the EU, something likely to be very unwelcome to the rest of Europe. | The government could face further pressure to speed up the timetable to renegotiate the UK’s membership of the EU, something likely to be very unwelcome to the rest of Europe. |
| “The prime minister may get an early, and important, opportunity to put the case for fundamental reform of the UK’s relationship with the EU,” said John Longworth, director general of the British Chambers of Commerce. “Businesses will want him to seize this opening.” | “The prime minister may get an early, and important, opportunity to put the case for fundamental reform of the UK’s relationship with the EU,” said John Longworth, director general of the British Chambers of Commerce. “Businesses will want him to seize this opening.” |
| When is the next deadline? | When is the next deadline? |
| The clock is ticking down to 20 July when Greece must repay €3.5bn to the ECB. For many, this really is the final deadline. Missing this payment would have far more catastrophic consequences than last week’s unprecedented default to the IMF. If Greece defaults to the ECB, the Frankfurt institution will most likely turn off all life support for the banks in Greece. Banks will collapse, Greece will be forced out of the euro and relations with the rest of Europe could become even worse. | The clock is ticking down to 20 July when Greece must repay €3.5bn to the ECB. For many, this really is the final deadline. Missing this payment would have far more catastrophic consequences than last week’s unprecedented default to the IMF. If Greece defaults to the ECB, the Frankfurt institution will most likely turn off all life support for the banks in Greece. Banks will collapse, Greece will be forced out of the euro and relations with the rest of Europe could become even worse. |