Scorching UK summers to become commonplace, says study
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Version 0 of 1. Scorching summers are likely to become common in the UK by the end of the century while winters turn wetter and less chilly, according to new research. Met Office researchers carried out a new analysis of long-range climate projections for the UK based on 30 year averages. It reveals that the chances of very cold British winters or soggy summers dwindle as the world warms, but could still occur in individual years. The lead scientist, Dr David Sexton, and head of scenarios development at the Met Office, said: “Our new research provides a more detailed picture of the range of seasonal temperatures and rainfall we could see in a given year.” The study, published in the journal Nature Climate Change, shows the odds of having a colder than average winter in the UK dropping from around 20% in 2020 to just 4% by 2100. Very cold winters such as the one that occurred in 2009/10 will become almost non-existent. The chance of experiencing one of these is less than 1% by the end of the century. Over the next two decades there was still a 35% to 40% likelihood of summers being wetter than average, but the odds fall to about 20% by 2100. The chances of a very wet summer – defined as 20% more rain than the 1961-1990 average – were expected to fall from 18% in 2020 to 10% eight decades later. But by the end of the century the likelihood of experiencing a blazing hot summer of the kind now seen every 20 years rises to 90%, making scorchers the norm. Met office senior scientist, Dr Glen Harris, who co-authored the research, said: “While there is a trend towards warmer winters and drier summers, there will still be a lot of variations in weather from year to year. Cold winters and wet summers just become less likely, and we will still have to be prepared for them.” |