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| Version 2 | Version 3 |
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| 'More hot summers' for parts of UK | 'More hot summers' for parts of UK |
| (30 days later) | |
| Scorching summers such as the one in 2003 look set to become more common in England and Wales, a study suggests. | Scorching summers such as the one in 2003 look set to become more common in England and Wales, a study suggests. |
| And devastating rains such as in Britain's worst winter in 2013-14 may be less likely in the decades ahead. | And devastating rains such as in Britain's worst winter in 2013-14 may be less likely in the decades ahead. |
| Work by the Met Office has calculated the odds of particular weather scenarios striking in future years. | Work by the Met Office has calculated the odds of particular weather scenarios striking in future years. |
| The computer simulations-based study, in the journal Nature Climate Change, finds that milder winters and drier summers will also become more likely. | |
| The work draws on a major analysis, known as UKCP09, released back in 2009 which offered projections of the future British climate divided into 30-year periods. | The work draws on a major analysis, known as UKCP09, released back in 2009 which offered projections of the future British climate divided into 30-year periods. |
| This new research instead provides a more detailed focus by giving projections for winters and summers in each individual year from now until the end of the century. | This new research instead provides a more detailed focus by giving projections for winters and summers in each individual year from now until the end of the century. |
| The aim is to take more account of the fact that Britain's weather is notoriously variable - fluctuating for natural reasons year to year regardless of human-induced climate change. | The aim is to take more account of the fact that Britain's weather is notoriously variable - fluctuating for natural reasons year to year regardless of human-induced climate change. |
| The authors of the research looked only at data from England and Wales; the analysis did not take into account Scotland or Northern Ireland. | The authors of the research looked only at data from England and Wales; the analysis did not take into account Scotland or Northern Ireland. |
| 'Apparent contradiction' | 'Apparent contradiction' |
| A parallel goal is to make clear that a trend to warmer temperatures does not mean that extremes of cold or rainfall are made impossible - instead, weather that seems to buck the prevailing remains on the cards, if less likely as the century progresses. | A parallel goal is to make clear that a trend to warmer temperatures does not mean that extremes of cold or rainfall are made impossible - instead, weather that seems to buck the prevailing remains on the cards, if less likely as the century progresses. |
| The 2009 study had suggested that the country faced a future of milder, wetter winters and hotter, drier summers - and the Met Office faced fierce criticism when shortly afterwards Britain was suddenly plunged into the bitterly cold winter of 2009-10. | The 2009 study had suggested that the country faced a future of milder, wetter winters and hotter, drier summers - and the Met Office faced fierce criticism when shortly afterwards Britain was suddenly plunged into the bitterly cold winter of 2009-10. |
| Met Office scientists acknowledge that there was confusion in the public mind about the "apparent contradiction" of hearing a 30-year projection for milder winters only to endure the reality of ice and snow. | Met Office scientists acknowledge that there was confusion in the public mind about the "apparent contradiction" of hearing a 30-year projection for milder winters only to endure the reality of ice and snow. |
| The authors of the new study hope that coming up with odds for different scenarios for weather in individual seasons will more useful. | The authors of the new study hope that coming up with odds for different scenarios for weather in individual seasons will more useful. |
| The paper says that the new approach has two advantages: "First, it allows fair comparisons with recent weather events, for instance showing that recent cold winters are within projected ranges. | The paper says that the new approach has two advantages: "First, it allows fair comparisons with recent weather events, for instance showing that recent cold winters are within projected ranges. |
| "Second, it allows the projections to be expressed in terms of the extreme hot, cold, wet or dry seasons that impact society, providing a better idea of adaptation needs". | "Second, it allows the projections to be expressed in terms of the extreme hot, cold, wet or dry seasons that impact society, providing a better idea of adaptation needs". |
| Some key conclusions from the study include: | Some key conclusions from the study include: |
| A co-author of the report, David Sexton, said that basing the projections on 30-year averages, as in the UKCP09 study, risked giving the impression to people that those weather conditions would apply to every single year. | A co-author of the report, David Sexton, said that basing the projections on 30-year averages, as in the UKCP09 study, risked giving the impression to people that those weather conditions would apply to every single year. |
| "When I talk to people, they remember the hot summer of 2003 or the wet winter of 2013-14 and they know they were extreme seasons - people can make tangible links to those impacts, they mean something to them personally, and the 30-year averages don't make sense to people in the same way." | "When I talk to people, they remember the hot summer of 2003 or the wet winter of 2013-14 and they know they were extreme seasons - people can make tangible links to those impacts, they mean something to them personally, and the 30-year averages don't make sense to people in the same way." |
| Follow David on Twitter. | Follow David on Twitter. |