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| Turkey, Month After Election, Awaits a Governing Coalition | Turkey, Month After Election, Awaits a Governing Coalition |
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| ISTANBUL — After Turkey’s governing party lost its majority in Parliament in the June 7 elections, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan urged the country’s lawmakers to swiftly form a new coalition government. | |
| But a month has now passed without that happening, and opponents say the reason is Mr. Erdogan: He has yet to give the necessary formal mandate to the leader of any party, not even his own, which still has the most seats in Parliament by far. | |
| Critics say the president has been deliberately stalling the process to maintain his party’s grip on power, undermine his opponents and push the country toward snap elections. | Critics say the president has been deliberately stalling the process to maintain his party’s grip on power, undermine his opponents and push the country toward snap elections. |
| Mr. Erdogan, whose post is supposed to be nonpartisan, offered an explanation for the first time at a dinner Tuesday evening breaking the daily Ramadan fast. He said that he was waiting for the three other parties in Parliament besides his own to choose deputy speakers, and that he expected to issue the formal mandate “soon.” | |
| The mandate would give a parliamentary leader — almost certainly the current prime minister, Ahmet Davutoglu of Mr. Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party — a period of 45 days to form a coalition. If he fails, the president can call new elections, which would probably be held in November. In the meantime, his party, known by its Turkish initials, A.K.P., continues to run the country as caretaker. | The mandate would give a parliamentary leader — almost certainly the current prime minister, Ahmet Davutoglu of Mr. Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party — a period of 45 days to form a coalition. If he fails, the president can call new elections, which would probably be held in November. In the meantime, his party, known by its Turkish initials, A.K.P., continues to run the country as caretaker. |
| The main opposition leader, Kemal Kilicdaroglu of the Republican People’s Party, assailed the delay in a statement on Monday. “It is not right to have Turkey ruled by a provisional government for a long time,” he said. “The government needs to be formed at once.” He called on Mr. Erdogan to drop his “delaying tactics.” | |
| By electing Turkey’s first hung Parliament in more than a decade, voters reined in Mr. Erdogan’s ambitions to concentrate more power in an executive presidency, which would require revising the Constitution. | By electing Turkey’s first hung Parliament in more than a decade, voters reined in Mr. Erdogan’s ambitions to concentrate more power in an executive presidency, which would require revising the Constitution. |
| But rather than winning the enlarged majority he sought, the Islamist-rooted A.K.P. saw its support fall to 41 percent from the 49 percent it drew in 2011, leaving it 18 seats short of the 276 needed to govern on its own. In the same vote, a pro-Kurdish party gained representation in Parliament for the first time. | |
| Since then, the parties have been jockeying for position in informal talks behind closed doors, while party leaders have sent vague and sometimes contradictory messages to the public. | Since then, the parties have been jockeying for position in informal talks behind closed doors, while party leaders have sent vague and sometimes contradictory messages to the public. |
| Initially, the three opposition blocs — the Kurdish party, Mr. Kilicdaroglu’s party and the Nationalist Movement Party, a far-right group known as the M.H.P. — all ruled out joining any coalition with Mr. Erdogan’s party. | Initially, the three opposition blocs — the Kurdish party, Mr. Kilicdaroglu’s party and the Nationalist Movement Party, a far-right group known as the M.H.P. — all ruled out joining any coalition with Mr. Erdogan’s party. |
| But the head of the M.H.P., Devlet Bahceli, later reversed himself, and analysts say his party is the most likely coalition partner for the A.K.P., because of the broad overlap between their ideologies. The nationalists have often backed the governing party in Parliament, notably in 2007, when they supported the election of Abdullah Gul to the presidency, and in 2008, when they voted in favor of lifting a ban on head scarves in universities. | |
| “The A.K.P. is out to survive and keep their control over the system, and the M.H.P. won’t cause them any trouble, especially if they are able to use state power to get their hands on a bigger share of capital,” said Halil M. Karaveli, a senior fellow at the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute and Silk Road Studies Program, a research and policy institute affiliated with Johns Hopkins University. | “The A.K.P. is out to survive and keep their control over the system, and the M.H.P. won’t cause them any trouble, especially if they are able to use state power to get their hands on a bigger share of capital,” said Halil M. Karaveli, a senior fellow at the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute and Silk Road Studies Program, a research and policy institute affiliated with Johns Hopkins University. |
| He added, “A partnership with another conservative party will further entrench the conservatism of the A.K.P. and will help prop up the crony capitalist system the party has constructed.” | He added, “A partnership with another conservative party will further entrench the conservatism of the A.K.P. and will help prop up the crony capitalist system the party has constructed.” |
| Mr. Bahceli has said his conditions for joining a coalition included the suspension of talks with leaders of Kurdish separatists, who recently ended a violent 30-year insurgency, and the prosecution of four former ministers implicated in corruption. | |
| “If they come out with these conditions, we will not only give a hand, but our whole body,” Mr. Bahceli said in a newspaper interview on June 20. | “If they come out with these conditions, we will not only give a hand, but our whole body,” Mr. Bahceli said in a newspaper interview on June 20. |
| Another condition voiced by all three opposition parties is for Mr. Erdogan to confine himself to the nonpartisan and largely ceremonial role that the Constitution now specifies for the president. Mr. Erdogan, a former prime minister, has gone far beyond previous presidents in taking an active hand in day-to-day politics, and he stumped aggressively on his party’s behalf during the election campaign, deriding opponents as traitors. | Another condition voiced by all three opposition parties is for Mr. Erdogan to confine himself to the nonpartisan and largely ceremonial role that the Constitution now specifies for the president. Mr. Erdogan, a former prime minister, has gone far beyond previous presidents in taking an active hand in day-to-day politics, and he stumped aggressively on his party’s behalf during the election campaign, deriding opponents as traitors. |
| Then, once the election results were published, Mr. Erdogan adopted a conciliatory tone and suggested that he would respect the democratic process of forming a coalition government. | Then, once the election results were published, Mr. Erdogan adopted a conciliatory tone and suggested that he would respect the democratic process of forming a coalition government. |
| “Egos should be set aside, and a new government should be formed immediately under the constitutional framework, with the understanding that continuity is fundamental to the state,” he said in his first public appearance after the vote. | “Egos should be set aside, and a new government should be formed immediately under the constitutional framework, with the understanding that continuity is fundamental to the state,” he said in his first public appearance after the vote. |
| Opponents reacted with skepticism. “For Erdogan, a coalition isn’t an option, but he will weigh it out and use it as a tool to persuade people that a partnership with the opposition will lead to instability,” a senior figure in the Republican People’s Party said, speaking on the condition of anonymity because he was not permitted to discuss the coalition talks publicly. | Opponents reacted with skepticism. “For Erdogan, a coalition isn’t an option, but he will weigh it out and use it as a tool to persuade people that a partnership with the opposition will lead to instability,” a senior figure in the Republican People’s Party said, speaking on the condition of anonymity because he was not permitted to discuss the coalition talks publicly. |
| “Erdogan wants to remind people of darker days,” the party official added, referring to the political and economic volatility of the 1990s, when Turkey had coalition governments. “He will use this as a tactic to get an early election — whether it’s now or in a year.” | “Erdogan wants to remind people of darker days,” the party official added, referring to the political and economic volatility of the 1990s, when Turkey had coalition governments. “He will use this as a tactic to get an early election — whether it’s now or in a year.” |
| The Republican People’s Party, with the second-largest bloc of seats in Parliament, is also talking to the A.K.P. informally about a coalition. That pairing would be the safest outcome for Turkey’s economy and development, analysts say. But the party’s conditions for joining a coalition show wide differences with the A.K.P. that could prove impossible to reconcile in the 45-day time frame for forming a new government. | The Republican People’s Party, with the second-largest bloc of seats in Parliament, is also talking to the A.K.P. informally about a coalition. That pairing would be the safest outcome for Turkey’s economy and development, analysts say. But the party’s conditions for joining a coalition show wide differences with the A.K.P. that could prove impossible to reconcile in the 45-day time frame for forming a new government. |
| Any hopes of the three opposition parties joining together to exclude the A.K.P. faded last week when Parliament elected the A.K.P.’s candidate as speaker in a secret ballot, presumably with backing from the M.H.P. | Any hopes of the three opposition parties joining together to exclude the A.K.P. faded last week when Parliament elected the A.K.P.’s candidate as speaker in a secret ballot, presumably with backing from the M.H.P. |
| “Events since the election have highlighted the inability of the opposition to cooperate,” said Howard Eissenstat, an expert on Turkey at St. Lawrence University. “The only thing the opposition parties have in common is their opposition to the A.K.P.” | “Events since the election have highlighted the inability of the opposition to cooperate,” said Howard Eissenstat, an expert on Turkey at St. Lawrence University. “The only thing the opposition parties have in common is their opposition to the A.K.P.” |
| Despite the electoral setback, Mr. Eissenstat said, Mr. Erdogan remains in the driver’s seat in Turkey. He and other analysts predicted that the president would continue to direct his party behind the scenes, while trying to remain presidential and above the fray in public. | Despite the electoral setback, Mr. Eissenstat said, Mr. Erdogan remains in the driver’s seat in Turkey. He and other analysts predicted that the president would continue to direct his party behind the scenes, while trying to remain presidential and above the fray in public. |
| “The Erdogan era is not over,” said Mr. Karaveli of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute. “He will play a less dominant role for now, and in a year or two he will call for an early election. But for now, he will give the coalition a chance.” | “The Erdogan era is not over,” said Mr. Karaveli of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute. “He will play a less dominant role for now, and in a year or two he will call for an early election. But for now, he will give the coalition a chance.” |
| Perhaps not for long, though. Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkish Research Program at the Washington Institute, wrote in a recent report that extended coalition rule could weaken the president’s grip. | Perhaps not for long, though. Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkish Research Program at the Washington Institute, wrote in a recent report that extended coalition rule could weaken the president’s grip. |
| “In recent years, Erdogan has turned Turkey’s regulatory institutions into censorship and sanctions bodies,” Mr. Cagaptay wrote. “Without an A.K.P. majority in the Parliament or cabinet, however, he would be forced to accept a gradual decline in his power, as these institutions undergo membership changes.” | “In recent years, Erdogan has turned Turkey’s regulatory institutions into censorship and sanctions bodies,” Mr. Cagaptay wrote. “Without an A.K.P. majority in the Parliament or cabinet, however, he would be forced to accept a gradual decline in his power, as these institutions undergo membership changes.” |
| Mr. Erdogan’s best hope for preventing that decline, he wrote, is an early election. | Mr. Erdogan’s best hope for preventing that decline, he wrote, is an early election. |