What should investors do after a volatile week on markets?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-33461144 Version 0 of 1. "Did you know they're going to print euros on Greece-proof paper?" At a village investment club deep in the English countryside, at least someone is still in the mood for joking. Given the dramas of the past week, it may of course be gallows humour. It all began on Monday, as markets reacted to the 'No' vote in Greece; attention then switched to the share-price crash in China and the UK budget. By the end, all eyes were back on Athens. The macro-economic implications of the crisis were being chewed over at Loddington village hall in leafy Leicestershire; along with ham sandwiches, pork pies and sausage rolls. At their monthly meeting, members of the Billesdon & District Investment Club were also enjoying a glass or two of Sauvignon Blanc, to help them swallow the news of tumbling markets. Club member James Gore-Brown thinks prices could fall further. "I don't recommend anything at the moment. I'm a real bear," he says. But Roger Peel, the club's declared expert on Greece, is keen to invest. "I would see any sudden dip in the market as an opportunity," he declares. So is it time for investors to buy or sell? Chinese 'meltdown' While Shanghai seemed a lot further away than Athens at the start of the week, stories of large losses amongst Chinese investors began to steal the headlines. Housewives to hairdressers have lost thousands, after piling in to the market just as share prices peaked. Shopkeeper and mother Lin Jinxia told the BBC how she and her husband had lost more than £10,000. After more than doubling in value over the last year, the Shanghai Composite has fallen by 30% over the last month, with trading in more than half the companies on the index now suspended. "The bubble is bursting, and the Shanghai index has collapsed as a consequence," says Richard Tonge, another member of the club. Rise and fall of Chinese shares The question for investors in Europe is how much the Chinese fall will affect share prices here. "Despite few foreign investors having much exposure to the Chinese stock markets, the meltdown matters," says Nigel Green, the founder of the deVere Group. "Indeed, it is hugely significant because it will send shock waves throughout global capital markets." He advises investors to revise portfolios, and be fully diversified - across geographical regions and asset classes - investing not only in shares, but in bonds, cash and commodities too. Anyone who thinks we are immune from the Chinese effect may like to look at HSBC, the UK's second largest company. Heavily exposed to China, and dual-listed in Hong Kong, at one stage this week its share price was down 14%, compared to its peak in April. Rebecca O'Keefe, head of investments at Interactive Investor, also points out that China's move away from heavy industry has caused a collapse in worldwide metal prices. "The FTSE 100 is under pressure from significantly lower commodity prices, which will impact most UK investors," she says. Faltering FTSE 'Bearish sentiment' The end of the week saw London shares bounce sharply upwards as prospects for a new Greek bail-out hardened, but no one knows what the eventual outcome may be. And as often in the stock market, the danger is that the Greek crisis is a catalyst for general gloom. Greece, China and the prospect of rising interest rates in the US have already led to a 7% drop in the FTSE 100 since its peak on 27 April. "These risk combining into a more generalised swathe of bearish sentiment that ricochets around the globe, as institutional investors and traders move to take further risk off the table," says Jason Hollands, the managing director of investment firm Tilney Bestinvest. In other words, shares may have further to fall over the next few months. In particular he thinks the US market looks expensive, with shares trading on 26 times earnings. But with the European Central Bank (ECB) continuing its programme of quantitative easing (QE), he thinks there may well be some value in European funds. 'Very positive' Some experts are a little more optimistic about the outlook. "Not only is the Greek tragedy almost over, but the Chinese authorities have taken extensive steps to support both their economy and their markets," says Rebecca O'Keefe. "The current weakness in markets may therefore offer an attractive entry point for brave equity investors." Indeed members of the Billesdon Investment Club decided in the end not to sell shares, but to buy more. After this week's UK budget, they decided to invest in Bovis, Topps Tiles, and Rolls-Royce. "We're very positive, but we're taking a three-to-five year view," says club chairman Nic Olsen. "We're buying good shares on bad days." |