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| Iran nuclear deal: what will the US do now? | Iran nuclear deal: what will the US do now? |
| (about 1 hour later) | |
| Can Congress delay the deal? | Can Congress delay the deal? |
| Yes. Under the terms of an oversight process agreed between US lawmakers and the White House in April, the president has to present all the details to Congress within five days of striking a deal. This must include a report from the secretary of state on how Iranian compliance will be verified. | Yes. Under the terms of an oversight process agreed between US lawmakers and the White House in April, the president has to present all the details to Congress within five days of striking a deal. This must include a report from the secretary of state on how Iranian compliance will be verified. |
| Related: Iran nuclear deal: historic agreement in Vienna – live updates | Related: Iran nuclear deal: historic agreement in Vienna – live updates |
| The Senate and House of Representatives then have 60 days to scrutinise the deal and hold hearings, during which time the president cannot begin lifting sanctions on Iran. Obama may also then have to wait another 10-12 days before actually starting this crucial part of the process. In total, it could be up to eight weeks after the back-slapping in Vienna before anything can get going. | The Senate and House of Representatives then have 60 days to scrutinise the deal and hold hearings, during which time the president cannot begin lifting sanctions on Iran. Obama may also then have to wait another 10-12 days before actually starting this crucial part of the process. In total, it could be up to eight weeks after the back-slapping in Vienna before anything can get going. |
| Can Congress block the deal? | Can Congress block the deal? |
| In theory. Towards the end of the 60-day review period, both the House and Senate will probably vote on a resolution of approval or disapproval. The exact mechanism is unclear, but this is likely to require a simple majority in both chambers to pass – ie 51 of the 100 senators and 218 of the 435 representatives. Since many Republicans are opposed to the deal and currently command a majority in both House and Senate, it is quite possible that a joint disapproval resolution would pass. | In theory. Towards the end of the 60-day review period, both the House and Senate will probably vote on a resolution of approval or disapproval. The exact mechanism is unclear, but this is likely to require a simple majority in both chambers to pass – ie 51 of the 100 senators and 218 of the 435 representatives. Since many Republicans are opposed to the deal and currently command a majority in both House and Senate, it is quite possible that a joint disapproval resolution would pass. |
| Related: Obama vows to veto any Republican attempt to derail Iran nuclear deal | |
| The catch is that the president can veto any attempt to make such a resolution enforceable – and on Tuesday in his statement on the deal he vowed to do so. To override a presidential veto requires a second vote to be passed with a two-thirds majority in both chambers: a high hurdle that would have to include at least 42 Democrats in the House and a dozen Democratic senators – probably more, if some Republicans chose to back the administration. | The catch is that the president can veto any attempt to make such a resolution enforceable – and on Tuesday in his statement on the deal he vowed to do so. To override a presidential veto requires a second vote to be passed with a two-thirds majority in both chambers: a high hurdle that would have to include at least 42 Democrats in the House and a dozen Democratic senators – probably more, if some Republicans chose to back the administration. |
| In other words, Obama can stick to his deal as long as he persuades at least one-third of one chamber of Congress to vote with him over the course of the four votes. Conversely, his opponents have to persuade a significant number of Democrats to stand up against their president on the most important foreign policy question of his administration – four times in a row. | In other words, Obama can stick to his deal as long as he persuades at least one-third of one chamber of Congress to vote with him over the course of the four votes. Conversely, his opponents have to persuade a significant number of Democrats to stand up against their president on the most important foreign policy question of his administration – four times in a row. |
| "I will veto any legislation that prevents the successful implementation of this deal." —@POTUS #IranDeal pic.twitter.com/0CbMDkgkIL | "I will veto any legislation that prevents the successful implementation of this deal." —@POTUS #IranDeal pic.twitter.com/0CbMDkgkIL |
| How likely is this? | How likely is this? |
| Not very. Assembling a veto-proof majority has long been the goal of opponents of the Iran deal. There are a number of Democrats, particularly more hawkish lawmakers such as Bob Menendez, who share Israel’s concerns about legitimising Iran’s nuclear programme and may join Republicans in blocking a weak deal. | Not very. Assembling a veto-proof majority has long been the goal of opponents of the Iran deal. There are a number of Democrats, particularly more hawkish lawmakers such as Bob Menendez, who share Israel’s concerns about legitimising Iran’s nuclear programme and may join Republicans in blocking a weak deal. |
| Related: Iran's nuclear programme: world powers reach historic deal to lift sanctions | Related: Iran's nuclear programme: world powers reach historic deal to lift sanctions |
| But attempts to assemble the necessary 67 votes in the Senate have always struggled in the past, which was one reason why the oversight bill proposed in April avoided demands that could have wrecked any deal and ended up being more of a fig leaf to give Congress the appearance of reviewing the deal rather than a practical right of refusal. A lot depends of course on the nature of the final deal, but the White House is adamant that it would not agree to anything that did not close off all routes to an Iranian bomb. So long as three-quarters of Democrats or at least some moderate Republicans agree with this assessment, Obama seems in a strong position. | But attempts to assemble the necessary 67 votes in the Senate have always struggled in the past, which was one reason why the oversight bill proposed in April avoided demands that could have wrecked any deal and ended up being more of a fig leaf to give Congress the appearance of reviewing the deal rather than a practical right of refusal. A lot depends of course on the nature of the final deal, but the White House is adamant that it would not agree to anything that did not close off all routes to an Iranian bomb. So long as three-quarters of Democrats or at least some moderate Republicans agree with this assessment, Obama seems in a strong position. |
| Who is worth watching? | Who is worth watching? |
| The Senate foreign relations committee chairman, Bob Corker, was a key figure in agreeing the review process with the White House and, unlike some other more hawkish Republicans, seems willing to consider a deal in principle – as long as it is tough enough. If he comes out in favour, or does not protest particularly vocally, it seems highly unlikely that his party will succeed in blocking a deal. | The Senate foreign relations committee chairman, Bob Corker, was a key figure in agreeing the review process with the White House and, unlike some other more hawkish Republicans, seems willing to consider a deal in principle – as long as it is tough enough. If he comes out in favour, or does not protest particularly vocally, it seems highly unlikely that his party will succeed in blocking a deal. |
| Related: Congress not backing down on Iran nuclear deal as bill could face veto | Related: Congress not backing down on Iran nuclear deal as bill could face veto |
| The committee’s ranking Democrat, Maryland’s Senator Ben Cardin, is another pivotal figure who has proved much less dogmatic in his opposition to the process than his predecessor Menendez, who was conveniently forced to step aside after the Department of Justice indicted him on corruption charges. In the House, strong support early on from the minority leader, Nancy Pelosi, could also provide confirmation that few Democrats are willing to override Obama’s veto. | The committee’s ranking Democrat, Maryland’s Senator Ben Cardin, is another pivotal figure who has proved much less dogmatic in his opposition to the process than his predecessor Menendez, who was conveniently forced to step aside after the Department of Justice indicted him on corruption charges. In the House, strong support early on from the minority leader, Nancy Pelosi, could also provide confirmation that few Democrats are willing to override Obama’s veto. |