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| Scott Walker: a candidate who embodies America's current partisan divisiveness | Scott Walker: a candidate who embodies America's current partisan divisiveness |
| (about 4 hours later) | |
| With the entry of Scott Walker into the presidential race, the increasingly ungainly pack of governors and senators, as well as a neurosurgeon and a reality TV star, vying to become the Republican party’s candidate in 2016 has been joined by one of the nation’s most polarizing politicians. | With the entry of Scott Walker into the presidential race, the increasingly ungainly pack of governors and senators, as well as a neurosurgeon and a reality TV star, vying to become the Republican party’s candidate in 2016 has been joined by one of the nation’s most polarizing politicians. |
| In his speech launching his presidential campaign in Waukesha on Monday, the Wisconsin governor presented himself as a man of principle in the Ronald Reagan mold who has the mettle and the message to win elections. “My record shows that I know how to fight and win,” he said. “Now, more than ever, we need a president who will fight and win for America.” | In his speech launching his presidential campaign in Waukesha on Monday, the Wisconsin governor presented himself as a man of principle in the Ronald Reagan mold who has the mettle and the message to win elections. “My record shows that I know how to fight and win,” he said. “Now, more than ever, we need a president who will fight and win for America.” |
| Related: Scott Walker can be beaten. One woman did it. She's just sorry his career survived | Related: Scott Walker can be beaten. One woman did it. She's just sorry his career survived |
| Much more is certain to be heard from Walker between now and the crucial starting gun of the nomination process – the Iowa caucus in February – about how his track record as governor of Wisconsin since 2011 demonstrates both his leadership skills and his ability to win elections, even in a state with such a proud Democratic tradition. As he put it on Monday: “If our reforms can work in a blue state like Wisconsin, they can work anywhere in America.” | Much more is certain to be heard from Walker between now and the crucial starting gun of the nomination process – the Iowa caucus in February – about how his track record as governor of Wisconsin since 2011 demonstrates both his leadership skills and his ability to win elections, even in a state with such a proud Democratic tradition. As he put it on Monday: “If our reforms can work in a blue state like Wisconsin, they can work anywhere in America.” |
| What will not be heard from the candidate as he seeks to push home his advantage as the current Republican frontrunner in Iowa in other key early primary states such as New Hampshire and South Carolina is that beneath his claim to a string of electoral victories lies a more complicated story of a leader who has riven his state right down the middle. Even in a country in which partisanship has become the national default, Walker stands out as a divisive figure. | What will not be heard from the candidate as he seeks to push home his advantage as the current Republican frontrunner in Iowa in other key early primary states such as New Hampshire and South Carolina is that beneath his claim to a string of electoral victories lies a more complicated story of a leader who has riven his state right down the middle. Even in a country in which partisanship has become the national default, Walker stands out as a divisive figure. |
| The electoral figures speak volumes. At face level, Walker has indeed pulled off an impressive feat by winning three elections in the past four years – his initial election as governor in 2010, a recall election in 2012 which he survived, and re-election in 2014. But a closer look at his support base reveals a knotty problem. | The electoral figures speak volumes. At face level, Walker has indeed pulled off an impressive feat by winning three elections in the past four years – his initial election as governor in 2010, a recall election in 2012 which he survived, and re-election in 2014. But a closer look at his support base reveals a knotty problem. |
| In 2010 he won 52% of the vote in Wisconsin. Two years later, when his detractors tried to unseat him, he won 53% of the vote, and two years after that he won a second term as governor with 52%. In short, his backing in the state has remained rock solid – or stagnant, depending on how you see it – despite his claim to be a transformative chief executive who has set Wisconsin on a path towards small government and individual freedom. | In 2010 he won 52% of the vote in Wisconsin. Two years later, when his detractors tried to unseat him, he won 53% of the vote, and two years after that he won a second term as governor with 52%. In short, his backing in the state has remained rock solid – or stagnant, depending on how you see it – despite his claim to be a transformative chief executive who has set Wisconsin on a path towards small government and individual freedom. |
| Related: Scott Walker's résumé: survivor par excellence loves a good union bust-up | Related: Scott Walker's résumé: survivor par excellence loves a good union bust-up |
| On the other side of Wisconsin’s partisan divide, that portion of the electorate that has so vocally stood against Walker and his policies, and visibly demonstrated in the weeks of protests in the capital Madison in 2011 objecting to the governor’s move against public sector unions, has also remained similarly rock solid or stagnant. His opponent in 2010 and in the 2012 recall election, the mayor of Milwaukee, Tom Barrett, took 46% of the vote on both occasions, while last year’s Democratic candidate Mary Burke also took 46%. | On the other side of Wisconsin’s partisan divide, that portion of the electorate that has so vocally stood against Walker and his policies, and visibly demonstrated in the weeks of protests in the capital Madison in 2011 objecting to the governor’s move against public sector unions, has also remained similarly rock solid or stagnant. His opponent in 2010 and in the 2012 recall election, the mayor of Milwaukee, Tom Barrett, took 46% of the vote on both occasions, while last year’s Democratic candidate Mary Burke also took 46%. |
| “The underlying issue here is that there may be a natural ceiling here to the support Scott Walker can attract,” said Donald Kettl, a University of Maryland professor of public policy who was based in Madison, Wisconsin, for 14 years. “He may reach 52% or 53%, but find it very hard to go beyond that.” | “The underlying issue here is that there may be a natural ceiling here to the support Scott Walker can attract,” said Donald Kettl, a University of Maryland professor of public policy who was based in Madison, Wisconsin, for 14 years. “He may reach 52% or 53%, but find it very hard to go beyond that.” |
| Kettl said that as a purple state, the lesson of Wisconsin could be that Walker might struggle were he to win his party’s nomination and go on to fight a general election for the soul of the nation. “This is the achilles heel of the right of the Republican party’s push on the presidency – can they go beyond their base and be attractive to enough of the electorate to win the general election?” | Kettl said that as a purple state, the lesson of Wisconsin could be that Walker might struggle were he to win his party’s nomination and go on to fight a general election for the soul of the nation. “This is the achilles heel of the right of the Republican party’s push on the presidency – can they go beyond their base and be attractive to enough of the electorate to win the general election?” |
| The stubbornly partisan nature of Walker’s electoral victories is highlighted in comparison to an earlier Republican governor of Wisconsin, Tommy Thompson, who like Walker began on 52% of the vote in 1986 but steadily grew his support base in the following two elections, rising to 58% in 1990 and 67% in 1994, falling back a little to 60% four years later. | The stubbornly partisan nature of Walker’s electoral victories is highlighted in comparison to an earlier Republican governor of Wisconsin, Tommy Thompson, who like Walker began on 52% of the vote in 1986 but steadily grew his support base in the following two elections, rising to 58% in 1990 and 67% in 1994, falling back a little to 60% four years later. |
| Why Walker’s political underpinning should be so rigid is at least partly explained by the highly partisan nature of his politics: he appeals to half of the electorate because he is only talking to half the electorate. That syndrome was on full display on Monday night at his campaign launch, where he thumped out a litany of rightwing conservative causes: his anti-abortion credentials; his championing of Wisconsin’s version of the stand-your-ground laws made notorious through the death of Trayvon Martin in Florida; his signing of a concealed carry law that allows Wisconsinites to carry undercover guns; and of course his signature attack in 2011 on public sector unions and this year on their private sector equivalents with the so-called “right-to-work” legislation that prohibits requiring a worker to pay union dues. | Why Walker’s political underpinning should be so rigid is at least partly explained by the highly partisan nature of his politics: he appeals to half of the electorate because he is only talking to half the electorate. That syndrome was on full display on Monday night at his campaign launch, where he thumped out a litany of rightwing conservative causes: his anti-abortion credentials; his championing of Wisconsin’s version of the stand-your-ground laws made notorious through the death of Trayvon Martin in Florida; his signing of a concealed carry law that allows Wisconsinites to carry undercover guns; and of course his signature attack in 2011 on public sector unions and this year on their private sector equivalents with the so-called “right-to-work” legislation that prohibits requiring a worker to pay union dues. |
| It was all extremely well received by the devoted Walker supporters who crammed into the Waukesha County expo center on Monday wearing red, white and blue under a scorching sun. Walker was dressed to appeal to them, in a blue button-up shirt with no tie. | It was all extremely well received by the devoted Walker supporters who crammed into the Waukesha County expo center on Monday wearing red, white and blue under a scorching sun. Walker was dressed to appeal to them, in a blue button-up shirt with no tie. |
| Related: Scott Walker's strange election strategy is to be Mitt Romney | Jeb Lund | |
| His rhetoric also spoke to popular conservative themes of marriage and family, a strong and aggressive military and local control of education. The crowd, gathered in the heart of the Republican stronghold of Waukesha, chanted and cheered as if on cue when the governor called for bold new leadership in Washington and “a president who will fight and win for them”, an oblique reference to those union-busting battles. | His rhetoric also spoke to popular conservative themes of marriage and family, a strong and aggressive military and local control of education. The crowd, gathered in the heart of the Republican stronghold of Waukesha, chanted and cheered as if on cue when the governor called for bold new leadership in Washington and “a president who will fight and win for them”, an oblique reference to those union-busting battles. |
| Democrats who have witnessed Walker’s uncompromising approach to leadership have been struck by how unflustered he is about the need to broaden his following. Peter Barca, the leader of the minority Democratic group in the Wisconsin assembly, told the Guardian that unlike most governors he had observed who made a point of building support over time, “this governor makes very little effort to try and build broader support. He governs with 52% or 53% of the electorate. He seems very comfortable with a very narrow base and doesn’t even make overtures to win over more moderate voters.” | Democrats who have witnessed Walker’s uncompromising approach to leadership have been struck by how unflustered he is about the need to broaden his following. Peter Barca, the leader of the minority Democratic group in the Wisconsin assembly, told the Guardian that unlike most governors he had observed who made a point of building support over time, “this governor makes very little effort to try and build broader support. He governs with 52% or 53% of the electorate. He seems very comfortable with a very narrow base and doesn’t even make overtures to win over more moderate voters.” |
| Such an approach to politics – feed your base with red meat while virtually ignoring everybody else – may be enough to scrape to victory in successive elections in Wisconsin, and may yet work wonders in Iowa. But it presents Scott Walker, and his fellow Republicans, with a longer-term dilemma: are they happy to talk almost exclusively to themselves, knowing that such insularity might cost them the presidency? | Such an approach to politics – feed your base with red meat while virtually ignoring everybody else – may be enough to scrape to victory in successive elections in Wisconsin, and may yet work wonders in Iowa. But it presents Scott Walker, and his fellow Republicans, with a longer-term dilemma: are they happy to talk almost exclusively to themselves, knowing that such insularity might cost them the presidency? |