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| Iran deal hands UN nuclear watchdog key role, but is it up to the job? | Iran deal hands UN nuclear watchdog key role, but is it up to the job? |
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| The Vienna agreement on Iran’s nuclear programme will make the UN’s nuclear watchdog agency the key arbiter of the deal, a task that brings with it huge prestige and severe strains. | The Vienna agreement on Iran’s nuclear programme will make the UN’s nuclear watchdog agency the key arbiter of the deal, a task that brings with it huge prestige and severe strains. |
| One of the reasons the talks were held in the Austrian capital is that it is also the headquarters of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), whose central role is woven tightly into the final text of the historic settlement. It will verify whether Iran has held up its end of the bargain by shrinking its nuclear infrastructure, and by the end of the year the agency is expected to deliver a report on its investigation into the country’s alleged weapons design work in the past. The IAEA’s director general, Yukiya Amano, could make or break the agreement with his choice of words. | One of the reasons the talks were held in the Austrian capital is that it is also the headquarters of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), whose central role is woven tightly into the final text of the historic settlement. It will verify whether Iran has held up its end of the bargain by shrinking its nuclear infrastructure, and by the end of the year the agency is expected to deliver a report on its investigation into the country’s alleged weapons design work in the past. The IAEA’s director general, Yukiya Amano, could make or break the agreement with his choice of words. |
| The agency’s Iran taskforce will carry out the monitoring and nuclear detective work. The multi-disciplinary team was set up in 2012 and currently has 50 members, but it will almost certainly have to be expanded. It has access to state-of-the-art technology at the IAEA’s laboratories in Seibersdorf, about 25 miles south of Vienna, including a new €3.8m (£2.7m) mass spectrometer for identifying isotopes and a nuclear material facility inaugurated in 2013. | The agency’s Iran taskforce will carry out the monitoring and nuclear detective work. The multi-disciplinary team was set up in 2012 and currently has 50 members, but it will almost certainly have to be expanded. It has access to state-of-the-art technology at the IAEA’s laboratories in Seibersdorf, about 25 miles south of Vienna, including a new €3.8m (£2.7m) mass spectrometer for identifying isotopes and a nuclear material facility inaugurated in 2013. |
| Related: Iran nuclear deal: world powers reach historic agreement to lift sanctions | Related: Iran nuclear deal: world powers reach historic agreement to lift sanctions |
| Amano recently described the upgrade of the laboratories as “one of the most important projects the agency has ever undertaken”. The IAEA’s new capability to analyse environmental samples gathered by its teams will make it all but impossible to hide activity involving radioactive matter. | Amano recently described the upgrade of the laboratories as “one of the most important projects the agency has ever undertaken”. The IAEA’s new capability to analyse environmental samples gathered by its teams will make it all but impossible to hide activity involving radioactive matter. |
| The inspectors going to Iran will also take new gadgets with them, including smart seals that send out alerts if they are tampered with and camera equipment that would broadcast live pictures from inside nuclear facilities. | The inspectors going to Iran will also take new gadgets with them, including smart seals that send out alerts if they are tampered with and camera equipment that would broadcast live pictures from inside nuclear facilities. |
| The IAEA taskforce, however, which is run by Massimo Aparo, may need more than better equipment. Robert Kelley, a former IAEA director of inspections, said: “The IAEA’s track record in dealing with military matters is extremely poor. They don’t understand conventional weapons, and a lot of their inspections will mean going to conventional facilities. The chances of getting confused are quite high.” | |
| Under the agreement, Iran will implement the IAEA’s additional protocol inspection regime, which will significantly increase the number of facilities monitored from the current total of 18. As well as the uranium enrichment and conversion plants and research reactors, the protocol gives the agency the task of inspecting all stages of the fuel cycle, including uranium mines and mills. It will almost certainly have to set up a field office in Iran from which to coordinate its inspections. | Under the agreement, Iran will implement the IAEA’s additional protocol inspection regime, which will significantly increase the number of facilities monitored from the current total of 18. As well as the uranium enrichment and conversion plants and research reactors, the protocol gives the agency the task of inspecting all stages of the fuel cycle, including uranium mines and mills. It will almost certainly have to set up a field office in Iran from which to coordinate its inspections. |
| Amano has said the task of monitoring the interim deal agreed in Geneva in November 2013 doubled the IAEA’s workload in Iran. | Amano has said the task of monitoring the interim deal agreed in Geneva in November 2013 doubled the IAEA’s workload in Iran. |
| “This has had significant resource implications, not just financially. Many of our most experienced inspectors and analysts are now working on the Iran file full time, which means they are not available to work on other dossiers,” he said in October. | “This has had significant resource implications, not just financially. Many of our most experienced inspectors and analysts are now working on the Iran file full time, which means they are not available to work on other dossiers,” he said in October. |
| The interim deal cost the IAEA more than €5m up to the end of June, on top of its €344m annual budget for promoting nuclear safety and peaceful uses of atomic science. | The interim deal cost the IAEA more than €5m up to the end of June, on top of its €344m annual budget for promoting nuclear safety and peaceful uses of atomic science. |
| The Vienna agreement, known as the joint comprehensive plan of action, implies another leap in the IAEA’s burden. So far, increases in funding have not kept pace. Despite the importance of its role, the agency is only financed on an ad-hoc basis and has to seek new funds each year. As soon as Amano costs the implications of the Vienna deal, he will go to the IAEA’s board of governors, which represents member states. | The Vienna agreement, known as the joint comprehensive plan of action, implies another leap in the IAEA’s burden. So far, increases in funding have not kept pace. Despite the importance of its role, the agency is only financed on an ad-hoc basis and has to seek new funds each year. As soon as Amano costs the implications of the Vienna deal, he will go to the IAEA’s board of governors, which represents member states. |
| The pressures will not just be financial. Amano will be under intense scrutiny when he comes to deliver his report on the past “possible military dimensions” of Iran’s nuclear programme, which he said could be done by the end of the year. In that time, it would be impossible for the agency to reach a broader conclusion that there were no undeclared nuclear material or activities in Iran. Proving such a negative usually takes several years after countries have joined the additional protocol. | The pressures will not just be financial. Amano will be under intense scrutiny when he comes to deliver his report on the past “possible military dimensions” of Iran’s nuclear programme, which he said could be done by the end of the year. In that time, it would be impossible for the agency to reach a broader conclusion that there were no undeclared nuclear material or activities in Iran. Proving such a negative usually takes several years after countries have joined the additional protocol. |
| What Amano has offered by the end of the year is far more limited, an “assessment of the clarification of the issues related to the possible military dimensions”. It will be a progress report based on site visits and interviews with Iranian scientists. It will then be up to the board of governors to make a judgement as to whether Iran has fulfilled its pledge to resolve the unanswered questions about its past work. | What Amano has offered by the end of the year is far more limited, an “assessment of the clarification of the issues related to the possible military dimensions”. It will be a progress report based on site visits and interviews with Iranian scientists. It will then be up to the board of governors to make a judgement as to whether Iran has fulfilled its pledge to resolve the unanswered questions about its past work. |
| To a large extent, the board will take its cue from Amano’s choice of vocabulary, and the Japanese diplomat, who is seeking a third term in office, has shown he has an acute grasp of backroom deal making and vote counting. When the time comes, he will have walk a tightrope between keeping up pressure on Iran to cooperate and not jeopardising the Vienna agreement entirely. | To a large extent, the board will take its cue from Amano’s choice of vocabulary, and the Japanese diplomat, who is seeking a third term in office, has shown he has an acute grasp of backroom deal making and vote counting. When the time comes, he will have walk a tightrope between keeping up pressure on Iran to cooperate and not jeopardising the Vienna agreement entirely. |
| Tariq Rauf, a former senior IAEA official now at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, said: “The fix is already in. The Americans have said they don’t want a confession. Amano has said he will give an assessment report, not a conclusion, which is not what the IAEA normally does. His likely assessment by December is that there are unanswered questions, but the agency has what it needs, and it will be rubber-stamped by the board.” | Tariq Rauf, a former senior IAEA official now at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, said: “The fix is already in. The Americans have said they don’t want a confession. Amano has said he will give an assessment report, not a conclusion, which is not what the IAEA normally does. His likely assessment by December is that there are unanswered questions, but the agency has what it needs, and it will be rubber-stamped by the board.” |
| • This article was amended on 15 July 2015 because Massimo Aparo is not a deputy director general of the IAEA, as an earlier version said. Aparo is head of the task force. |