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Analysis: What's happening with knife crime? | Analysis: What's happening with knife crime? |
(6 days later) | |
What's going on with knife crime? Wasn't this an offence of the past - one that haunted a succession of home secretaries and chief constables but was now contained and controlled? | What's going on with knife crime? Wasn't this an offence of the past - one that haunted a succession of home secretaries and chief constables but was now contained and controlled? |
Knife crime never went away - it just fell quite a lot and, correspondingly, out of the headlines. | Knife crime never went away - it just fell quite a lot and, correspondingly, out of the headlines. |
Now figures from the Office for National Statistics have shown that knife offences in England and Wales rose by 2% in the year to March 2015. While that sounds small, it masks a really complex and concerning picture that raises important questions about why it's going up again and whether the police tactics are right. | |
Knife crime hit a record in 2008 and the then government launched a major initiative - the Tackling Knives Action Plan (TKAP). | Knife crime hit a record in 2008 and the then government launched a major initiative - the Tackling Knives Action Plan (TKAP). |
In each of the initial 10 areas, police officers were dedicated to long-term operations to identify the knife-carriers through a surge in intelligence-gathering and, correspondingly, a co-ordinated use of stop and search powers. | In each of the initial 10 areas, police officers were dedicated to long-term operations to identify the knife-carriers through a surge in intelligence-gathering and, correspondingly, a co-ordinated use of stop and search powers. |
With intelligence pointing at increased use by gangs, officers would target places where they would hang around - and many young offenders were put into a special youth justice programme designed to challenge their knife-carrying behaviour. | With intelligence pointing at increased use by gangs, officers would target places where they would hang around - and many young offenders were put into a special youth justice programme designed to challenge their knife-carrying behaviour. |
Did TKAP work? A 2011 Home Office study showed that there had been falls in serious violence by teenagers or young adults right across the country, irrespective of whether or not they lived in a TKAP area. | Did TKAP work? A 2011 Home Office study showed that there had been falls in serious violence by teenagers or young adults right across the country, irrespective of whether or not they lived in a TKAP area. |
Had it been a waste of time and money? | Had it been a waste of time and money? |
Not so, says Chief Constable Alf Hitchcock, the national lead on knife crime. | Not so, says Chief Constable Alf Hitchcock, the national lead on knife crime. |
"There was an awful lot of stop and search and it had a massive impact. We saw a 32% reduction [in knife offences] in 12 months. We correlated that with the hospital data and we could see that it was having an impact on offender behaviour." | "There was an awful lot of stop and search and it had a massive impact. We saw a 32% reduction [in knife offences] in 12 months. We correlated that with the hospital data and we could see that it was having an impact on offender behaviour." |
He argues that, with hindsight, TKAP probably had a deterrence effect beyond the target areas. Increasing numbers of carriers around the country decided it wasn't worth the risk tucking a blade into their waistband. | He argues that, with hindsight, TKAP probably had a deterrence effect beyond the target areas. Increasing numbers of carriers around the country decided it wasn't worth the risk tucking a blade into their waistband. |
Speaking of deterrence, what about sentencing? | Speaking of deterrence, what about sentencing? |
In 2012, a new law of aggravated knife possession was created to squarely target those definitely carrying a weapon for crime and threatening to use it. | In 2012, a new law of aggravated knife possession was created to squarely target those definitely carrying a weapon for crime and threatening to use it. |
Along with the new law came minimum sentences and, today, people convicted of knife-related offences are increasingly likely to go to prison. | Along with the new law came minimum sentences and, today, people convicted of knife-related offences are increasingly likely to go to prison. |
During TKAP, police chiefs floated the idea of a mandatory sentence for anyone caught carrying a knife twice. | During TKAP, police chiefs floated the idea of a mandatory sentence for anyone caught carrying a knife twice. |
That law finally comes into force on Friday after Labour and Conservative MPs formed an informal coalition last year to see off Liberal Democrat opposition to the measure. | That law finally comes into force on Friday after Labour and Conservative MPs formed an informal coalition last year to see off Liberal Democrat opposition to the measure. |
Against all of that, the 2015 rise in knife crime is grim reading. The signs of a statistical U-turn began appearing last year - and last month figures showed a definite rise in injuries in London. | Against all of that, the 2015 rise in knife crime is grim reading. The signs of a statistical U-turn began appearing last year - and last month figures showed a definite rise in injuries in London. |
The latest ONS figures show an increase in recorded assaults - up 13% to almost 14,000 - and a 10% rise in possession offences to just over 9,900 crimes. Robberies involving knives are, however, down 14%. | |
Separate figures show that while knife offences are up, the proportion of 10 to 17-year-olds involved in the crimes has been falling - until now. | Separate figures show that while knife offences are up, the proportion of 10 to 17-year-olds involved in the crimes has been falling - until now. |
The big question, ultimately, is how do the police get on top of all this - which is where we come back to the question of stop and search. | The big question, ultimately, is how do the police get on top of all this - which is where we come back to the question of stop and search. |
Research and police intelligence tends to categorise knife-carriers in a number of ways. There are those who are carrying a knife to commit a crime. Then there are a group who are carrying because they see their mates doing it. | Research and police intelligence tends to categorise knife-carriers in a number of ways. There are those who are carrying a knife to commit a crime. Then there are a group who are carrying because they see their mates doing it. |
Police chiefs who support the stop-and-search led strategies developed under TKAP believe that it remains the most important tool for dealing with the first two categories. | Police chiefs who support the stop-and-search led strategies developed under TKAP believe that it remains the most important tool for dealing with the first two categories. |
But stop and search has been falling after the home secretary told forces to rethink how they're using it. She said nobody wins when it's used poorly - particularly if used unfairly against young black men. | But stop and search has been falling after the home secretary told forces to rethink how they're using it. She said nobody wins when it's used poorly - particularly if used unfairly against young black men. |
So has a fall in stop and search caused a rise in knife crime? Have the carriers decided it's worth the risk carrying a blade once more? | So has a fall in stop and search caused a rise in knife crime? Have the carriers decided it's worth the risk carrying a blade once more? |
The Met's commissioner, Sir Bernard Hogan-Howe, appears to think so and his officers are stepping up how they are using the tactic. | The Met's commissioner, Sir Bernard Hogan-Howe, appears to think so and his officers are stepping up how they are using the tactic. |
There is one final group who carry knives - those who say they do so "for protection". | There is one final group who carry knives - those who say they do so "for protection". |
A lot of police officers believe this is a convenient excuse rolled out ad nauseum in the interview suite. | A lot of police officers believe this is a convenient excuse rolled out ad nauseum in the interview suite. |
But critics say that repeated governments have failed quite miserably to understand what lies behind gang culture. | But critics say that repeated governments have failed quite miserably to understand what lies behind gang culture. |
And, they argue, no amount of visible policing or stop and search is going to break a rather depressing state of fear in the minds of some young people. | And, they argue, no amount of visible policing or stop and search is going to break a rather depressing state of fear in the minds of some young people. |
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