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| Dilma Rousseff faces impeachment threat over scandals amid public disgust | Dilma Rousseff faces impeachment threat over scandals amid public disgust |
| (about 20 hours later) | |
| The Brazilian president, Dilma Rousseff, has been warned that she could face impeachment as powerful former allies sharpen their political daggers and public anger rises over corruption, inflation and unemployment. | |
| The threat was made by the speaker of the lower house, Eduardo Cunha, whose Democratic Movement party (better known by its Portuguese acronym PMDB) is in open revolt against the Workers party government it has propped up since 2003. | The threat was made by the speaker of the lower house, Eduardo Cunha, whose Democratic Movement party (better known by its Portuguese acronym PMDB) is in open revolt against the Workers party government it has propped up since 2003. |
| At a breakfast meeting with journalists ahead of a two-week parliamentary recess, Cunha said he would make a decision “within 30 days” on whether to move forward on the removal of the president. | At a breakfast meeting with journalists ahead of a two-week parliamentary recess, Cunha said he would make a decision “within 30 days” on whether to move forward on the removal of the president. |
| Cunha acknowledged that an impeachment, which would be the first since 1992, would be a “backwards step for democracy” but his willingness to consider the possibility was in marked contrast to his position in April when he was adamant that it would not go ahead. | Cunha acknowledged that an impeachment, which would be the first since 1992, would be a “backwards step for democracy” but his willingness to consider the possibility was in marked contrast to his position in April when he was adamant that it would not go ahead. |
| Since then, however, Rousseff – who is just seven months into her second term – has been weakened by a relentless tide of bad economic news, political setbacks and pressure from auditors, prosecutors and election monitors. | Since then, however, Rousseff – who is just seven months into her second term – has been weakened by a relentless tide of bad economic news, political setbacks and pressure from auditors, prosecutors and election monitors. |
| Unemployment is at a five-year high, inflation is nearly twice the government’s target, the value of wages has fallen about 5% since May 2014, and the nation’s GDP is forecast to shrink this year by 1.3% – the worst fall in 25 years. | Unemployment is at a five-year high, inflation is nearly twice the government’s target, the value of wages has fallen about 5% since May 2014, and the nation’s GDP is forecast to shrink this year by 1.3% – the worst fall in 25 years. |
| Meanwhile, the Lava Jato (Car Wash) investigation into the siphoning of £1.3bn ($1.4bn) from the state-owned oil company Petrobras continues to ensnare senior figures in business and politics. Fifty politicians from six parties have been implicated. | Meanwhile, the Lava Jato (Car Wash) investigation into the siphoning of £1.3bn ($1.4bn) from the state-owned oil company Petrobras continues to ensnare senior figures in business and politics. Fifty politicians from six parties have been implicated. |
| This month also saw the arrest of the Petrobras director Jorge Zelada, who was suggested for his post by the PMDB, and the seizure by police of luxury cars owned by senator – and former president – Fernando Collor de Mello. Cunha is also under investigation. | |
| Cunha was named on Thursday by one of the Lava Jato whistleblowers, Julius Camargo, who testified that the president of the chamber of deputies asked him for a $5m bribe related to a Petrobras contract. Cunha denies this claim. | |
| But the scandal may also be moving closer to the doors of the presidential Palácio do Planalto. Ricardo Pessoa, who allegedly headed a group of construction company bosses that channeled money from Petrobras to political parties, has agreed a plea bargain. According to Veja – a magazine that is fiercely critical of the government – Pessoa is prepared to reveal details of illicit donations to Rousseff’s campaign. | But the scandal may also be moving closer to the doors of the presidential Palácio do Planalto. Ricardo Pessoa, who allegedly headed a group of construction company bosses that channeled money from Petrobras to political parties, has agreed a plea bargain. According to Veja – a magazine that is fiercely critical of the government – Pessoa is prepared to reveal details of illicit donations to Rousseff’s campaign. |
| That is not the only threat to the president. The court of audit is looking into allegations that the government illegally bumped social security payments on to state banks to dress up the fiscal balance sheet, which if proven could also lead to impeachment procedures. | |
| Opposition leader Aécio Neves has warned darkly that the Rousseff administration is heading for an “interruption”. An anti-government rally has been called for 16 August. | Opposition leader Aécio Neves has warned darkly that the Rousseff administration is heading for an “interruption”. An anti-government rally has been called for 16 August. |
| Rousseff has vowed to resist what she and her allies describe as an attempted coup. “I’m not going to fall. I won’t. I won’t. That would be too wimpy. This is a political fight,” she said in an interview with the Folha de São Paulo newspaper earlier this week. | Rousseff has vowed to resist what she and her allies describe as an attempted coup. “I’m not going to fall. I won’t. I won’t. That would be too wimpy. This is a political fight,” she said in an interview with the Folha de São Paulo newspaper earlier this week. |
| Marta Arretche, a political science professor at the University of São Paulo, said Cunha’s threats might have more to do with his own fear of being arrested by prosecutors. “What he is doing is attempting to affect the investigation by threatening impeachment,” said Arretche. “He is trying to save his own skin, because of the situation that he is in.” | Marta Arretche, a political science professor at the University of São Paulo, said Cunha’s threats might have more to do with his own fear of being arrested by prosecutors. “What he is doing is attempting to affect the investigation by threatening impeachment,” said Arretche. “He is trying to save his own skin, because of the situation that he is in.” |
| Even if impeachment proceedings are launched, she said it is still far from certain that Rousseff will be removed, which would require a vote against the president by 342 lower house deputies and then 54 senators. | Even if impeachment proceedings are launched, she said it is still far from certain that Rousseff will be removed, which would require a vote against the president by 342 lower house deputies and then 54 senators. |
| But support for Rousseff is ebbing away on the streets and inside her coalition. According to an Ibope poll earlier this month, the president’s approval ratings have fallen to a dismal 9%. | But support for Rousseff is ebbing away on the streets and inside her coalition. According to an Ibope poll earlier this month, the president’s approval ratings have fallen to a dismal 9%. |
| Related: Brazil elite profit from $3bn Petrobras scandal as laid-off workers pay the price | Related: Brazil elite profit from $3bn Petrobras scandal as laid-off workers pay the price |
| Cunha and other members of the PMDB have repeatedly humiliated Rousseff in congressional votes and statement. The vice-president of the party, Michel Temer, said this week that the party – the biggest in Brazil – are open to new alliances and a plan to put forward their own candidate at the next presidential election in 2018. | Cunha and other members of the PMDB have repeatedly humiliated Rousseff in congressional votes and statement. The vice-president of the party, Michel Temer, said this week that the party – the biggest in Brazil – are open to new alliances and a plan to put forward their own candidate at the next presidential election in 2018. |
| More worrying still for the president are growing signs of dissent within her own party. Her predecessor and former mentor Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has criticised the government for implementing austerity measures despite promising otherwise during last year’s election and accused Workers party officials of being too focused on their careers. | |
| On current trends, the ruling party will be massacred at next year’s municipal elections, which also adds to the internal pressures on Rousseff. | On current trends, the ruling party will be massacred at next year’s municipal elections, which also adds to the internal pressures on Rousseff. |
| Meanwhile Cunha, who is a possible challenger in 2018 if he survives the current scandal, appears to be revelling in his role of presidential-irritator-in-chief. | Meanwhile Cunha, who is a possible challenger in 2018 if he survives the current scandal, appears to be revelling in his role of presidential-irritator-in-chief. |
| Ahead of the recess, he reminded journalists and politicians that public disgruntlement is only likely to grow. | Ahead of the recess, he reminded journalists and politicians that public disgruntlement is only likely to grow. |
| “If anyone thinks that congressmen will be relieved to have two weeks off, they are wrong. The members will spend two week in their constituencies. Deepening unemployment will increase the pressure on them, and they will come back even tougher on the government,” he said. | “If anyone thinks that congressmen will be relieved to have two weeks off, they are wrong. The members will spend two week in their constituencies. Deepening unemployment will increase the pressure on them, and they will come back even tougher on the government,” he said. |
| Additional reporting by Shanna Hanbury | Additional reporting by Shanna Hanbury |